OT Oregon Ducks 2025 (2 Viewers)

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I’m thinking they’re playing this Thomas kid because he’s local and has dealt with rain
 
Oregon may be a top-10 team. But they have issues in the trenches. The offensive line makes too many mental mistakes and whiffs on too many blocks. The defensive front-4 rarely gets pressure on the QB. They have ends who can set the edge but simply don't get many sacks. Last season the Ducks were 14th in sacks/game at 2.9. This season they are 80th at 1.9

that's not to say their pass defense isn't good. They are 2nd in FBS in passing yards allowed a game; tied for 1st in total passing TD's allowed; 1st in opposing QB rating; 8th in passing plays over 10 years allowed; 3rd in passing plays over 20 yards

they are also 8th in points/game allowed; 6th in total yards/game allowed; 5th in yards/play allowed

sounds like I'm making a case for then due to defense. That defense will probably keep them in games, even against elite teams. But as we saw against Indiana, the Duck defense simply didn't get enough penetration and disruption

honestly, I expect at least one more loss; and wouldn't be surprised if they lose 2 of the last 4 games. I don't think a 10-2 Duck team will make the playoffs
 
wizenheimer said:
Oregon may be a top-10 team. But they have issues in the trenches. The offensive line makes too many mental mistakes and whiffs on too many blocks. The defensive front-4 rarely gets pressure on the QB. They have ends who can set the edge but simply don't get many sacks. Last season the Ducks were 14th in sacks/game at 2.9. This season they are 80th at 1.9

that's not to say their pass defense isn't good. They are 2nd in FBS in passing yards allowed a game; tied for 1st in total passing TD's allowed; 1st in opposing QB rating; 8th in passing plays over 10 years allowed; 3rd in passing plays over 20 yards

they are also 8th in points/game allowed; 6th in total yards/game allowed; 5th in yards/play allowed

sounds like I'm making a case for then due to defense. That defense will probably keep them in games, even against elite teams. But as we saw against Indiana, the Duck defense simply didn't get enough penetration and disruption

honestly, I expect at least one more loss; and wouldn't be surprised if they lose 2 of the last 4 games. I don't think a 10-2 Duck team will make the playoffs
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IDK I think they would have steamrolled the Badgers had they had their starting QB in the second half. Would have put two more TD's on the board at least. Typically the Ducks have been a second half team.
I do agree with you that they just seem a bit out of touch on both lines but what you are describing are mental issues at times. Stupid penalties like blocking for a guy on the sidelines when the play is pretty much dead. Getting a TD called back for a holding call on a fake punt. The front four are ranked well against the run and they hold 6th nationally on total defense. I think I read that 8th in scoring defense not points per game?
Anyway I think the defensive issue can be worked on. It's not like they lack talent.
 
kjironman1 said:
IDK I think they would have steamrolled the Badgers had they had their starting QB in the second half. Would have put two more TD's on the board at least. Typically the Ducks have been a second half team.
I do agree with you that they just seem a bit out of touch on both lines but what you are describing are mental issues at times. Stupid penalties like blocking for a guy on the sidelines when the play is pretty much dead. Getting a TD called back for a holding call on a fake punt. The front four are ranked well against the run and they hold 6th nationally on total defense. I think I read that 8th in scoring defense not points per game?
Anyway I think the defensive issue can be worked on. It's not like they lack talent.
Click to expand...
I know it seems a bit nit-picky to criticize a 7-1 team. I mean, that's a good record for their 2nd year in the Big-10, especially after losing these players off of last year's team:

offense:

OL Josh Connerly
OL Marcus Harper
OL Ajani Cornelius
OL Nishad Strother
OL George Silva
QB Dillon Gabriel
RB Jordan James
WR Tez Johnson
WR Traeshon Holden
WR Evan Stewart (injured)
TE Terrance Ferguson
TE Patrick Herbert

defense:

DE Jordan Burch
DT Derrick Harmon
DT Jamaree Caldwell
DT Kevon Ware-Hudson
LB Jeffrey Bassa
LB Jestin Jacobs
LB Conner Soelle
DB Dontae Manning
DB Nikko Reed
DB Kobe Savage
DB Jabbar Muhammed
DB Brandon Johnson
DB Kam Alexander

if you're keeping track, that's 10 starters on offense and 9 starters on defense (nickel set). And 24 players off the two-deep. That Oregon is as good as they are after losing all that is a testament to the program and Lanning. The Ducks are 20-2 over the last 2 seasons and 32-4 over the last 3; and they went 10-0 in conference play last season winning the championship in their 1st season.

it's more of a sense I have after watching them this season. The defense is great statistically this year; in many ways better statistically in a lot of categories. But last year's defense was more disruptive. It averaged 1.1 more sacks a game; 1.5 more TFL's; about even on turnovers. But that disruption really shows up in red zone defense. Last season Duck opponents had an 85% conversion rate in the red zone but only a 52% TD rate. This season, Oregon is last in FBS in the red zone with opponents having a 100% conversion rate and a 77% TD rate. That's terrible and it was a big reason why Indiana beat them

by the way, those defensive stats you quoted....I included them in the post you responded too

bottom line is I do not believe the Ducks finish the regular season at 11-1. I think they will be 10-2 or 9-3. Iowa will be a much bigger challenge than Wisconsin and the Washington game I'm already counting as a loss. USC won't be easy either
 
wizenheimer said:
I know it seems a bit nit-picky to criticize a 7-1 team. I mean, that's a good record for their 2nd year in the Big-10, especially after losing these players off of last year's team:

offense:

OL Josh Connerly
OL Marcus Harper
OL Ajani Cornelius
OL Nishad Strother
OL George Silva
QB Dillon Gabriel
RB Jordan James
WR Tez Johnson
WR Traeshon Holden
WR Evan Stewart (injured)
TE Terrance Ferguson
TE Patrick Herbert

defense:

DE Jordan Burch
DT Derrick Harmon
DT Jamaree Caldwell
DT Kevon Ware-Hudson
LB Jeffrey Bassa
LB Jestin Jacobs
LB Conner Soelle
DB Dontae Manning
DB Nikko Reed
DB Kobe Savage
DB Jabbar Muhammed
DB Brandon Johnson
DB Kam Alexander

if you're keeping track, that's 10 starters on offense and 9 starters on defense (nickel set). And 24 players off the two-deep. That Oregon is as good as they are after losing all that is a testament to the program and Lanning. The Ducks are 20-2 over the last 2 seasons and 32-4 over the last 3; and they went 10-0 in conference play last season winning the championship in their 1st season.

it's more of a sense I have after watching them this season. The defense is great statistically this year; in many ways better statistically in a lot of categories. But last year's defense was more disruptive. It averaged 1.1 more sacks a game; 1.5 more TFL's; about even on turnovers. But that disruption really shows up in red zone defense. Last season Duck opponents had an 85% conversion rate in the red zone but only a 52% TD rate. This season, Oregon is last in FBS in the red zone with opponents having a 100% conversion rate and a 77% TD rate. That's terrible and it was a big reason why Indiana beat them

by the way, those defensive stats you quoted....I included them in the post you responded too

bottom line is I do not believe the Ducks finish the regular season at 11-1. I think they will be 10-2 or 9-3. Iowa will be a much bigger challenge than Wisconsin and the Washington game I'm already counting as a loss. USC won't be easy either
Click to expand...
If they lose to the Puppies.... Damn.
 
wizenheimer said:
I know it seems a bit nit-picky to criticize a 7-1 team. I mean, that's a good record for their 2nd year in the Big-10, especially after losing these players off of last year's team:

offense:

OL Josh Connerly
OL Marcus Harper
OL Ajani Cornelius
OL Nishad Strother
OL George Silva
QB Dillon Gabriel
RB Jordan James
WR Tez Johnson
WR Traeshon Holden
WR Evan Stewart (injured)
TE Terrance Ferguson
TE Patrick Herbert

defense:

DE Jordan Burch
DT Derrick Harmon
DT Jamaree Caldwell
DT Kevon Ware-Hudson
LB Jeffrey Bassa
LB Jestin Jacobs
LB Conner Soelle
DB Dontae Manning
DB Nikko Reed
DB Kobe Savage
DB Jabbar Muhammed
DB Brandon Johnson
DB Kam Alexander

if you're keeping track, that's 10 starters on offense and 9 starters on defense (nickel set). And 24 players off the two-deep. That Oregon is as good as they are after losing all that is a testament to the program and Lanning. The Ducks are 20-2 over the last 2 seasons and 32-4 over the last 3; and they went 10-0 in conference play last season winning the championship in their 1st season.

it's more of a sense I have after watching them this season. The defense is great statistically this year; in many ways better statistically in a lot of categories. But last year's defense was more disruptive. It averaged 1.1 more sacks a game; 1.5 more TFL's; about even on turnovers. But that disruption really shows up in red zone defense. Last season Duck opponents had an 85% conversion rate in the red zone but only a 52% TD rate. This season, Oregon is last in FBS in the red zone with opponents having a 100% conversion rate and a 77% TD rate. That's terrible and it was a big reason why Indiana beat them

by the way, those defensive stats you quoted....I included them in the post you responded too

bottom line is I do not believe the Ducks finish the regular season at 11-1. I think they will be 10-2 or 9-3. Iowa will be a much bigger challenge than Wisconsin and the Washington game I'm already counting as a loss. USC won't be easy either
Click to expand...

Yah, what he said!
 
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