Oregon falls furthest in CEO survey of best states for business

[barfo]

The hell it won't! All you need is the opportunity to build new homes inexpensively and you can bet it will drive existing home prices down.

Sure. Again, how much money do you think we are talking about here? Do you think land is a huge fraction of the price of a house?

barfo

 

[tlongII]

That depends. Currently the location is probably the main driver of the cost of the land besides size of the lot. In the more desirable areas land is a significant portion of the cost of the home. I would have to look up the percentage though. Making more land available and at lower prices would drive down the price of the structure as well though.

 

[barfo]

That depends. Currently the location is probably the main driver of the cost of the land besides size of the lot. In the more desirable areas land is a significant portion of the cost of the home. I would have to look up the percentage though. Making more land available and at lower prices would drive down the price of the structure as well though.

In the more desirable areas more expensive homes tend to get built, so I'm not sure about that. Probably the highest land/price ratio is older, run down homes in good neighborhoods, and the lowest is McMansions jammed onto tiny lots. But the more desirable areas aren't the right comparison anyway. Your idea is that people who can't afford houses now will buy out in the boondocks because it is cheaper. So we are talking about cheap houses on cheap land outside the UGB, vs. cheap houses on the cheapest land available inside the UGB.

I'm not clear on how you think just the possibility of building outside the UGB would drive down prices. Would a seller think to himself "well, someone could start building a slightly cheaper house today and have it ready to market several months from now, so I'd better drop my price today"? Would a buyer say "well, if someone actually built a house outside the UGB, and if I waited several months for it to be built, I could save a little money, so I'll offer less"? Would a buyer who can't afford a used house in town even be considering buying a new house, anywhere? Seems unlikely to me. I think you have to have an actual, not a theoretical, alternative to make the price change.

barfo

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

So how do you explain the fact that most businesses are located in relatively unlivable places (some of them with higher costs of living, stronger unions, and higher taxes than Oregon)?

Myself, I think the answer is most businesses don't move. Most businesses stay in the same place they were started, and they get started in the places where people happen to be.
And what determines where people happen to be when they start a company? Three things: where they grew up, where they went to college, and where they are working when they decide to strike out on their own. The first one is just a matter of population, and we are obviously at a disadvantage there. The third is a chicken and egg problem - saying the way to attract more jobs is to have more jobs is pretty useless advice, albeit correct. The second one is really the only thing a state can truly do something about. Unfortunately, this state has had its head up its ass for its entire history about the value of higher ed, and the fact that Portland itself lacks a real university is a huge problem as far as economic growth goes. Now, admittedly we've done a great job of adjusting by becoming a destination for 20-somethings to move to for lifestyle reasons, but it would still be better to have the university.

barfo

I'm not so sure I agree. I mean, it is true that most businesses do not relocate, but there times when larger amount than usual do. We're in one of those times now. As an example, businesses are leaving Oregon at a higher rate at present due to recent tax increases to support a union entitlement program that is only getting worse. I remember 15 years ago when businesses were exiting CA. Several moved into Klamath & Lake Counties (where I lived). So it does happen and on a flux scale. I used to work for Farmers Insurance Claims. We had a huge regional office building at I-5 & Hwy 217. Due to high taxes the entire operation (over 800 employees) was moved to Vancouver, WA. Nationwide Claims (over 1,000 employees) is moving to CO due to high taxes and cost of living in Portland. A good friend of none worked for a print facility in WA that closed and moved due to union involvement. There are numerous other examples I know of, so while most businesses do not move, many do.

As to why businesses start where they do, I really don't know. Your thought are at least partially correct I am sure. As to why more businesses are in The People's Republic of Multnomah County, I am sure it is because where there are more people, more businesses start. It may not be where they want to be, but it stands to reason it's where they have to be. I think the next decade will be very difficult for Oregon business. Twenty years of poor leadership is now coming home to roost.

 

[barfo]

I'm not so sure I agree. I mean, it is true that most businesses do not relocate, but there times when larger amount than usual do. We're in one of those times now. As an example, businesses are leaving Oregon at a higher rate at present due to recent tax increases to support a union entitlement program that is only getting worse. I remember 15 years ago when businesses were exiting CA. Several moved into Klamath & Lake Counties (where I lived). So it does happen and on a flux scale. I used to work for Farmers Insurance Claims. We had a huge regional office building at I-5 & Hwy 217. Due to high taxes the entire operation (over 800 employees) was moved to Vancouver, WA. Nationwide Claims (over 1,000 employees) is moving to CO due to high taxes and cost of living in Portland. A good friend of none worked for a print facility in WA that closed and moved due to union involvement. There are numerous other examples I know of, so while most businesses do not move, many do.

As to why businesses start where they do, I really don't know. Your thought are at least partially correct I am sure. As to why more businesses are in The People's Republic of Multnomah County, I am sure it is because where there are more people, more businesses start. It may not be where they want to be, but it stands to reason it's where they have to be. I think the next decade will be very difficult for Oregon business. Twenty years of poor leadership is now coming home to roost.

You for some reason ignore the businesses that move into Oregon, and focus only on those that move out. I'm not convinced the out-migration is actually larger than the in-migration. Nevertheless, the number moving in either direction is a tiny fraction of the total.

barfo

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

You for some reason ignore the businesses that move into Oregon, and focus only on those that move out. I'm not convinced the out-migration is actually larger than the in-migration. Nevertheless, the number moving in either direction is a tiny fraction of the total.

barfo

There was a time when I'd say you are correct, but certainly not now. I can recall when Oregon was allowing companies to not owe taxes for years if they would just come or stay here. Those days are gone. Long gone. Now, the order of the day is to punish businesses in this state and I hardly see that as an incentive for businesses to come here.

 

[barfo]

There was a time when I'd say you are correct, but certainly not now. I can recall when Oregon was allowing companies to not owe taxes for years if they would just come or stay here. Those days are gone. Long gone. Now, the order of the day is to punish businesses in this state and I hardly see that as an incentive for businesses to come here.

How many businesses do you think have left Oregon, how many businesses do you think have moved to Oregon, and how many businesses total do you think there are in Oregon?

barfo

 

[barfo]

I used to work for Farmers Insurance Claims. We had a huge regional office building at I-5 & Hwy 217. Due to high taxes the entire operation (over 800 employees) was moved to Vancouver, WA.

Curiously, here's a completely different story about that:

Now, the Farmers Insurance building has a “For Sale” sign hanging on it, and Farmers employees are packing their bags – headed for Hillsboro, and new state-of-the-art digs.

Farmers announced in July that it would close its 386-employee call center in Tigard and another 180-employee center in Pleasanton, Calif., and consolidate them in a new “ServicePoint Center” in Hillsboro by mid-year 2008.

It will be Farmers’ third ServicePoint Center in the country.

“Farmers Insurance is making several investments – investments in our employees, facilities, technologies and products, and ServicePoint is one of those things,” said Jim Ignozzitto, the company’s state executive director for Oregon. “It just turned out that the building in Tigard wasn’t suitable for what we were looking for for this new center. It was as simple as that.”

Ignozzitto said the company did search the entire area for a new facility, including Tigard, but the facility in Hillsboro turned out to be the best fit.

“Our search really wasn’t about Tigard, or Hillsboro or anything along those lines,” Ignozzitto said. “We looked at pretty much every location in our core operating territory throughout the country. But we’ve been in Oregon since 1932 and in this building for nearly 40 years, and what we did decide on ultimately, was that we wanted to stay in Oregon, and we wanted to stay in the Portland metro area.”

Ignozzitto said no jobs will be lost in the transition. In fact, the company plans to increase the number of employees, he said.

barfo

 

[tlongII]

In the more desirable areas more expensive homes tend to get built, so I'm not sure about that. Probably the highest land/price ratio is older, run down homes in good neighborhoods, and the lowest is McMansions jammed onto tiny lots. But the more desirable areas aren't the right comparison anyway. Your idea is that people who can't afford houses now will buy out in the boondocks because it is cheaper. So we are talking about cheap houses on cheap land outside the UGB, vs. cheap houses on the cheapest land available inside the UGB.

I'm not clear on how you think just the possibility of building outside the UGB would drive down prices. Would a seller think to himself "well, someone could start building a slightly cheaper house today and have it ready to market several months from now, so I'd better drop my price today"? Would a buyer say "well, if someone actually built a house outside the UGB, and if I waited several months for it to be built, I could save a little money, so I'll offer less"? Would a buyer who can't afford a used house in town even be considering buying a new house, anywhere? Seems unlikely to me. I think you have to have an actual, not a theoretical, alternative to make the price change.

barfo

No, that's not it at all. I see more affluent people buying nicer homes at better prices thus driving a trickle down effect.

 

[barfo]

No, that's not it at all. I see more affluent people buying nicer homes at better prices thus driving a trickle down effect.

Ok, so the affluent people buy houses outside the UGB and sell their houses in town for less money, enabling poor people to buy them. Great, but don't those houses have to be built for the more affluent people to buy them? Still not seeing how you intend to get the construction started.

barfo

 

[Shooter]

Oregon's foolish liberal voting base will drive the state into bankruptcy if it continues much longer.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

How many businesses do you think have left Oregon, how many businesses do you think have moved to Oregon, and how many businesses total do you think there are in Oregon?

barfo

I do not know the raw numbers. However, from what I read (Oregonian, Business Journal) and the people I get to talk to (CEO's of 3 large corps, doctors, people at Nike and a few other places) seems to give me a fair read on the situation. Based on all that I think say at the present time more businesses are leaving the state or closing than ever before and fewer business are entering the state than ever before. I would say our unemployment rate also tends to bear that out. Let's face it, we're a state in deep financial trouble, high taxes and both are going to get appreciably worse before they get better. While that may not preclude any new business, it certainly slows it down.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

Curiously, here's a completely different story about that:






barfo

The new center in Hillsboro is news to me. I spoke with a senior person there when I was making some changes to my retirement account and she told me the initial move to Vancouver was mostly due to taxes. The building in Portland was to be sold. I wonder if the story in the paper was completely correct- or if I was getting the straight scoop.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

Oregon's foolish liberal voting base will drive the state into bankruptcy if it continues much longer.

Um, we're pretty much already there.

 

[barfo]

The new center in Hillsboro is news to me. I spoke with a senior person there when I was making some changes to my retirement account and she told me the initial move to Vancouver was mostly due to taxes. The building in Portland was to be sold. I wonder if the story in the paper was completely correct- or if I was getting the straight scoop.

Well... that newspaper story was pretty detailed. And Farmer's does now have an installation on Bennett Road in Hillsboro as claimed. And I can't find any evidence of a Farmer's site in Vancouver.
So, my tentative conclusion is that everything you were told was false. They didn't move due to taxes, they didn't leave Oregon, they added, rather than decreased, employment in Oregon. Basically it's the exact opposite of the story you gave me.

So, given that, how much weight should I put on your other anecdotal stories that "people in the know" told you about companies moving, and why they move?

barfo

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

Well... that newspaper story was pretty detailed. And Farmer's does now have an installation on Bennett Road in Hillsboro as claimed. And I can't find any evidence of a Farmer's site in Vancouver.
So, my tentative conclusion is that everything you were told was false. They didn't move due to taxes, they didn't leave Oregon, they added, rather than decreased, employment in Oregon. Basically it's the exact opposite of the story you gave me.

So, given that, how much weight should I put on your other anecdotal stories that "people in the know" told you about companies moving, and why they move?

barfo

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm.................... I wonder. I also wonder now that taxes have gone up and are being promised to go up again if they will keep most of their people in Vancouver (based on the story you posted I know over 50% will stay there) and perhaps lease some of the space.

I did a search about businesses leaving Oregon and the stories were all political. The lefty ones state more business is coming than leaving and the righty ones state the opposite. They have their stats...

So who knows.

 

[barfo]

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm.................... I wonder. I also wonder now that taxes have gone up and are being promised to go up again if they will keep most of their people in Vancouver (based on the story you posted I know over 50% will stay there) and perhaps lease some of the space.

Not sure what you are talking about here. 50% will stay in Vancouver? They aren't there now. Farmers moved from Tigard to Hillsboro. There was no Vancouver involved.

I did a search about businesses leaving Oregon and the stories were all political. The lefty ones state more business is coming than leaving and the righty ones state the opposite. They have their stats...

So who knows.

Glad to see you admit that.

I do not know the raw numbers. However, from what I read (Oregonian, Business Journal) and the people I get to talk to (CEO's of 3 large corps, doctors, people at Nike and a few other places) seems to give me a fair read on the situation.

I'd say based on the evidence it doesn't. But here's a challenge for you. For every published report you can find of a company leaving Oregon due to taxes, I'll find a published report of a company moving to Oregon. We'll see who lasts longer.

Based on all that I think say at the present time more businesses are leaving the state or closing than ever before and fewer business are entering the state than ever before. I would say our unemployment rate also tends to bear that out. Let's face it, we're a state in deep financial trouble, high taxes and both are going to get appreciably worse before they get better. While that may not preclude any new business, it certainly slows it down.

Of course the state is in some financial trouble, but so are lots of other states. In fact, pretty much the whole world is in financial trouble. The high unemployment rate here isn't caused by companies moving out of state - it is caused by companies downsizing or going out of business.

barfo

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

Not sure what you are talking about here. 50% will stay in Vancouver? They aren't there now. Farmers moved from Tigard to Hillsboro. There was no Vancouver involved.



Glad to see you admit that.



I'd say based on the evidence it doesn't. But here's a challenge for you. For every published report you can find of a company leaving Oregon due to taxes, I'll find a published report of a company moving to Oregon. We'll see who lasts longer.



Of course the state is in some financial trouble, but so are lots of other states. In fact, pretty much the whole world is in financial trouble. The high unemployment rate here isn't caused by companies moving out of state - it is caused by companies downsizing or going out of business.

barfo

Well, I suppose the true stats are not available (and would probably be suppressed), but we can agree the climate for business in Oregon right now and in the immediate future is not too rosey. There's a reason why Oregon slipped so far in this poll and I am sure it will play out to some degree. To me, the sad part is that I doubt the issues hurting the state will never be resolved. I believe that any state that is either elitist liberal or dirt dry conservative for as long as we have creates a set of problems that becomes more or less permanent. As a result, our business growth will remain fairly stagnant. Some start-ups, some bankruptcies, some leave.