Politics Oregon Gov candidates

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Who do you want to be the Next Governor?

  • Tina Kotek

    Votes: 14 48.3%

  • Betsy Johnson

    Votes: 7 24.1%

  • Christine Drazan

    Votes: 1 3.4%

  • Other

    Votes: 1 3.4%

  • None of the Above

    Votes: 4 13.8%

  • I don't live in Oregon

    Votes: 2 6.9%
  • Total voters
    29
Phatguysrule said:
Without consistency in rise or fall of homicide rates post gun control adoption when compared to neighboring or similar countries I don't understand how this can be seen as evidence of anything.
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Fallacy. I just gave you consistent comparisons with similar countries.
 
Lanny said:
Fallacy. I just gave you consistent comparisons with similar countries.
Click to expand...
You can't only pick the ones with the outcomes you like and call it consistent.

The US had just as good of results as the countries you mentioned over the same time frames, while doubling the number of guns and letting the assault weapons ban expire.

The US saw far better results than the UK, which saw their violent crimes and murder rates increase while the US cut violent crimes and murder rates in half.
 
Phatguysrule said:
You can't only pick the ones with the outcomes you like and call it consistent.

The US had just as good of results as the countries you mentioned over the same time frames, while doubling the number of guns and letting the assault weapons ban expire.

The US saw far better results than the UK, which saw their violent crimes and murder rates increase while the US cut violent crimes and murder rates in half.
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I picked the countries more like us than any others in the world.
 
Lanny said:
I picked the countries more like us than any others in the world.
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Yes, that would be the UK and Australia.

Which had opposite results after similar gun control measures. The most successful of which saw similar reductions as were seen in the US over the same time frame. The US showing far greater reductions in numbers of cases, but nearly identical reductions in rates.

The UK showed virtually no impact, actually a slight rise in intentional homicides after 10 years...

I don't understand how you can look at these three results and see consistency in the idea that more gun control = reduced murder rates or violent crime. I just don't see the consistency in that data.

I completely understand and agree with wanting to reduce violent crime rates and the numbers of deaths. I just don't see evidence to support the idea that further gun control is a meaningful way to accomplish that.

IMG_20221003_170716.png


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate_by_decade

https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/crime-in-the-u.s.-2015/tables/table-1

http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=crim_off_cat&lang=en

http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/auss...8BCDCF9DCA2578B700119690/$File/45100_2010.pdf
 

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Phatguysrule said:
Yes, that would be the UK and Australia.

Which had opposite results after similar gun control measures. The most successful of which saw similar reductions as were seen in the US over the same time frame. The US showing far greater reductions in numbers of cases, but nearly identical reductions in rates.

The UK showed virtually no impact, actually a slight rise in intentional homicides after 10 years...

I don't understand how you can look at these three results and see consistency in the idea that more gun control = reduced murder rates or violent crime. I just don't see the consistency in that data.

I completely understand and agree with wanting to reduce violent crime rates and the numbers of deaths. I just don't see evidence to support the idea that further gun control is a meaningful way to accomplish that.

View attachment 49798


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate_by_decade

https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/crime-in-the-u.s.-2015/tables/table-1

http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=crim_off_cat&lang=en

http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/auss...8BCDCF9DCA2578B700119690/$File/45100_2010.pdf
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I can see this is getting nowhere as I already knew. I just couldn't believe my logic would not prevail.
 
Lanny said:
I can see this is getting nowhere as I already knew. I just couldn't believe my logic would not prevail.
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The numbers are right there though... Are there before and after numbers that prove better results to gun control than this? I've looked and can't find them.

What other country armed with guns has had better results after instituting gun control?
 
SlyPokerCat said:
I've always thought Barfo would probably be into Furry type stuff.
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I gather from your avatar that you're a non-furry. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

barfo
 
https://news.yahoo.com/republican-candidate-gains-momentum-in-oregon-governors-race-165217531.html

Republican candidate gains momentum in Oregon governor's race

Oregon may be on the verge of electing its first Republican governor in a generation next month.

It would be a heavy blow for Democrats, an indictment of the party’s brand in what has been one of the most progressive states in the country. Portland, its largest city, has been an epicenter of left-wing activism in support of causes like defunding the police and drug decriminalization.

But by all accounts, Portland is struggling. Crime is up, the city is facing a homelessness crisis and residents are worried. Democratic Rep. Earl Blumenauer, a Portland native who has represented much of the city in Congress since 1996, called Portland “broken” when he announced his reelection bid earlier this year.

“There’s just a huge feeling of lawlessness,” a Portland resident told the Oregonian this week.

Things are so bad, in fact, that some of the state’s left-leaning voters might support a Republican candidate for governor this November.

Republican Christine Drazan, a former state House minority leader, is campaigning hard on the issues of homelessness, drug addiction and crime. In the last week or so, she has surged to claim a 1-point lead in the FiveThirtyEight polling average over her main opponent, Democrat Tina Kotek, a former state House speaker.

A poll by the Oregonian found homelessness to be the top issue for voters in the state, with crime and public safety the next most important. The survey found that 64% of Oregonians think the state’s justice system is “not tough enough” on crime.

There’s no doubt that things in Portland and around much of the state are grim. More than two-thirds of residents think Oregon is on the wrong track, and Democratic Gov. Kate Brown is the most unpopular state executive in the country, with a 54% disapproval rating, according to Morning Consult.

The murder rate is on pace to break another record, after 2021 set a new one. Last weekend, four Portland people were killed in separate incidents, two by shootings and two by stabbings involving homeless persons. One of the stabbings occurred in the Old Town neighborhood around lunchtime.

A few neighborhoods away, more than 50 people woke up Saturday morning to find that the tires on their cars had been slashed.

“My state is going to hell,” Betsy Johnson, an independent candidate for governor who has been competitive in the polls, said in a recent interview on Fox News. Johnson, a Democratic state senator since 2005, has said Portland is becoming a “city of roaches.” She has also called Kotek “Tent City Tina,” an attack on Kotek's sponsorship in 2021 of state House Bill 3115, which restrained local governments from criminalizing homeless people for camping in public places.....
 
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ABM said:
Oregon may be on the verge of electing its first Republican governor in a generation next month.

“My state is going to hell,” Betsy Johnson, an independent candidate for governor who has been competitive in the polls, said
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Agreed. Electing Drazen will send the state to hell. Betsy is actively working towards that.

barfo
 
barfo said:
Agreed. Electing Drazen will send the state to hell. Betsy is actively working towards that.

barfo
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Democrats are working toward that. They don't have to support policies or practices that make Betsy appealing.

I hope it doesn't bite us too hard...
 
Phatguysrule said:
Democrats are working toward that. They don't have to support policies or practices that make Betsy appealing.

I hope it doesn't bite us too hard...
Click to expand...

Ultimately, it's voters who will do the necessary work.

Vote for Kotek - Kotek becomes Gov.
Vote for Drazen - Drazen becomes Gov.
Vote for Johnson - Drazen becomes Gov.

barfo
 
barfo said:
Ultimately, it's voters who will do the necessary work.

Vote for Kotek - Kotek becomes Gov.
Vote for Drazen - Drazen becomes Gov.
Vote for Johnson - Drazen becomes Gov.

barfo
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Unless enough vote for Johnson. Then Johnson becomes Governor.

And it's quite possible that those who vote for Johnson are doing so to make a statement, and don't care of Drazen wins.

People are going to vote how they want. It's your responsibility as a party and candidate to maintain your own base.

When the Dem platform turns off enough voters that anti science conservatives can win as Governor of Oregon it might be time for Dems to reconsider their platform and what changes have been made to drive so many voters away...
 
Phatguysrule said:
Unless enough vote for Johnson. Then Johnson becomes Governor.
Click to expand...

If we are playing that way, if enough people write in 'barfo', I'll be governor! It could happen! Dreams can come true, it can happen to you...

In reality, it's Drazen or Kotek. Johnson isn't going to win barring two huge October surprises (Drazen is caught in bed with a dead girl, Kotek with a dead boy).

And it's quite possible that those who vote for Johnson are doing so to make a statement, and don't care of Drazen wins.
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If they don't care who wins, then sure. Surely there are indeed some people who vote and yet don't care about the results.

People are going to vote how they want. It's your responsibility as a party and candidate to maintain your own base.

When the Dem platform turns off enough voters that anti science conservatives can win as Governor of Oregon it might be time for Dems to reconsider their platform and what changes have been made to drive so many voters away...
Click to expand...

And, if Kotek somehow wins it, will that say to you that the Dems didn't need to reconsider their platform, and they had the right strategy all along?

barfo
 
barfo said:
If they don't care who wins, then sure. Surely there are indeed some people who vote and yet don't care about the results.
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They don't care between Drazen and Kotek. Neither speaks to them, and they are vehemently opposed to some policies of both.

Therefore, they see making a statement with their vote is the best use of their vote.

barfo said:
And, if Kotek somehow wins it, will that say to you that the Dems didn't need to reconsider their platform, and they had the right strategy all along?

barfo
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Democrats win the Governor's race in a walk in Oregon. Have for half a century.

The closer that margin gets the more Democrats should consider it.
 
Phatguysrule said:
They don't care between Drazen and Kotek. Neither speaks to them, and they are vehemently opposed to some policies of both.

Therefore, they see making a statement with their vote is the best use of their vote.


Democrats win the Governor's race in a walk in Oregon. Have for half a century.

The closer that margin gets the more Democrats should consider it.
Click to expand...

My move to Tennessee gets happier every day,
 
ABM said:
https://news.yahoo.com/republican-candidate-gains-momentum-in-oregon-governors-race-165217531.html

Republican candidate gains momentum in Oregon governor's race

Oregon may be on the verge of electing its first Republican governor in a generation next month.

It would be a heavy blow for Democrats, an indictment of the party’s brand in what has been one of the most progressive states in the country. Portland, its largest city, has been an epicenter of left-wing activism in support of causes like defunding the police and drug decriminalization.

But by all accounts, Portland is struggling. Crime is up, the city is facing a homelessness crisis and residents are worried. Democratic Rep. Earl Blumenauer, a Portland native who has represented much of the city in Congress since 1996, called Portland “broken” when he announced his reelection bid earlier this year.

“There’s just a huge feeling of lawlessness,” a Portland resident told the Oregonian this week.

Things are so bad, in fact, that some of the state’s left-leaning voters might support a Republican candidate for governor this November.

Republican Christine Drazan, a former state House minority leader, is campaigning hard on the issues of homelessness, drug addiction and crime. In the last week or so, she has surged to claim a 1-point lead in the FiveThirtyEight polling average over her main opponent, Democrat Tina Kotek, a former state House speaker.

A poll by the Oregonian found homelessness to be the top issue for voters in the state, with crime and public safety the next most important. The survey found that 64% of Oregonians think the state’s justice system is “not tough enough” on crime.

There’s no doubt that things in Portland and around much of the state are grim. More than two-thirds of residents think Oregon is on the wrong track, and Democratic Gov. Kate Brown is the most unpopular state executive in the country, with a 54% disapproval rating, according to Morning Consult.

The murder rate is on pace to break another record, after 2021 set a new one. Last weekend, four Portland people were killed in separate incidents, two by shootings and two by stabbings involving homeless persons. One of the stabbings occurred in the Old Town neighborhood around lunchtime.

A few neighborhoods away, more than 50 people woke up Saturday morning to find that the tires on their cars had been slashed.

“My state is going to hell,” Betsy Johnson, an independent candidate for governor who has been competitive in the polls, said in a recent interview on Fox News. Johnson, a Democratic state senator since 2005, has said Portland is becoming a “city of roaches.” She has also called Kotek “Tent City Tina,” an attack on Kotek's sponsorship in 2021 of state House Bill 3115, which restrained local governments from criminalizing homeless people for camping in public places.....
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Ha ha, fat chance.
 
Phatguysrule said:
They don't care between Drazen and Kotek. Neither speaks to them, and they are vehemently opposed to some policies of both.

Therefore, they see making a statement with their vote is the best use of their vote.
Click to expand...

Yeah, no doubt there are such people. Question is, how many?

barfo
 
barfo said:
Yeah, no doubt there are such people. Question is, how many?

barfo
Click to expand...
Looks like about 20%.

And now that he has given Johnson a solid platform with name recognition, Phil is going to flood Drazen with cash.

They are just giving people who didn't really want to support the Dem agenda another option. You can try to make them feel guilty, but it won't matter. Dems have pushed them too far.
 
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