OT NBA betting odds

[Draco]

Any NBA bettors out there? I'm gonna experiment with some bets here over the next month. Lets just say all bets are hypothetical.

My pics for 10/30, one spread three money lines.

Brooklyn +14 at San Antonio. I'm not a Spurs regular season believer and that's just such a huge line I'll take the points. $500 bet to win $476

Miami +210 at Cleveland. No Irving, Miami is healthy and I think these are close to pick em teams in the regular season with a more healthy Heat team. I give the slight edge to Cleveland. Should be a much closer spread. $500 to win $1,050

Minnesota +165 at Denver. I see this as basically a pick'em. I like the Minny roster more than Denver but its on the road. $500 to win $825

Portland +165 at Phoenix. Think we shouldn't be much if any of an underdog. I predicted Phoenix to win in the prediction thread but I'll go with the money line for us here so I'm right either way $500 to win $825

 

[rasheedfan2005]

As I can tell by my previous prediction game history im far too much of a homer to wager real money

 

[KingSpeed]

I have a bet out to anyone who will take it, but take it soon. $100. The Blazers will win at least 20 games by the All Star break. Even if there are major injuries. We're deep. PM by the end of the week if you want to take the bet.

 

[Draco]

11/1 NFL bets. First, bet 2 team NFL teaser. Teasers let you push the line 6 points but both teams must cover for you to win. I sometimes bet these if there are strong favorites with a line just over a touchdown.
Atlanta -1 at home over Tampa Bay
St Louis -2 at home over San Fran
Bet $1,200 to win $1,000

Bet on Seattle -4.5 at Dallas. A somewhat desperate Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch and Hawks defense against an injured Cowboys team that lost 4 straight? Big market glamour teams often have dead money sitting there available to be bet against. That's the case here; should be a larger spread. Bet $1100 to win $1000.

 

[PHXBlazer1]

I've got the Blazers winning outright tonight. I also like Boston at home against Toronto, where they have won 21 0f the last 25 vs. the Raps. I think those are the only 2 games I'm gonna touch tonight. Good luck!

 

[Draco]

10/30 net losses of $675 on $2000 of bets.

10/31 Bet on Golden State -4.5 at New Orleans Pelicans. This Pelicans team is decimated with injuries against one of if not the best team in the NBA. The line should be closer to 10 points in my estimation, not the 5 I need to cover. I'll take Golden State. $1100 bet to win $1000

 

[PHXBlazer1]

I was thinking the same thing about the Golden St. game. Gonna lay some $$ on that one for sure. And probably the Blazers -3 at home! The rest of my action today is college football.

 

[Draco]

I was thinking the same thing about the Golden St. game. Gonna lay some $$ on that one for sure. And probably the Blazers -3 at home! The rest of my action today is college football.

Yeah couldn't believe the GS line. I think analysts are looking at New Orleans as a near 50 win playoff team with an improving MVP candidate, they haven't updated projections for the litany of injuries and scrubs that team has playing. I didn't see any college I liked. I rarely bet football unless I really like the odds. Stick to what I'm an expert in. After last night I thought Blazers game should be a pick em or we get a couple points. Since we're a favorite I'd bet Phoenix and get those points if I was forced to pick one. The big advantage of home teams is rest and travel; we have neither of those tonight. If I bet Phoenix could win the bet and Blazers win by a point as I posted in predictions thread! But its close enough line to where I think it should be I'm staying away.

 

[RR7]

10/30 net losses of $675 on $2000 of bets.

10/31 Bet on Golden State -4.5 at New Orleans Pelicans. This Pelicans team is decimated with injuries against one of if not the best team in the NBA. The line should be closer to 10 points in my estimation, not the 5 I need to cover. I'll take Golden State. $1100 bet to win $1000

Wouldn't that be a loss of 1175? Or am I completely missing something. Apologize if so. Spent 2000, won the Minny game for 825?

 

[PHXBlazer1]

Yeah couldn't believe the GS line. I think analysts are looking at New Orleans as a near 50 win playoff team with an improving MVP candidate, they haven't updated projections for the litany of injuries and scrubs that team has playing. I didn't see any college I liked. I rarely bet football unless I really like the odds. Stick to what I'm an expert in. After last night I thought Blazers game should be a pick em or we get a couple points. Since we're a favorite I'd bet Phoenix and get those points if I was forced to pick one. Could win the bet and Blazers win by a point as I posted in predictions thread! But its close enough line to where I think it should be I'm staying away.

Apparently we're not the only ones, the line on Golden St. is already up to -6. I took Florida -2 today and Washington St. plus the points. I don't bet much college football either, mostly stick to NBA, NFL and MLB. Still haven't bet on the Blazers yet, as I try not to bet with my heart, but we'll see. Still got a few hours to think about it!

 

[Draco]

Wouldn't that be a loss of 1175? Or am I completely missing something. Apologize if so. Spent 2000, won the Minny game for 825?

For winning I got my Minny bet back of $500. So lost $1500 of bets won $875. Before the games I had $2000 at risk.

 

[Haakzilla]

...easy money was Thursday night's NFL game, Pats destroyed that spread!

 

[Draco]

...easy money was Thursday night's NFL game, Pats destroyed that spread!

If only I could bet the game after the game.

 

[RR7]

For winning I got my Minny bet back of $500. So lost $1500 of bets won $875. Before the games I had $2000 at risk.

thanks, always screwed those up in my head.

 

[Haakzilla]

If only I could bet the game after the game.

...yeah yeah, have you ever looked at http://www.covers.com/index.aspx for intel reports?

 

[Draco]

...yeah yeah, have you ever looked at http://www.covers.com/index.aspx for intel reports?

No, thanks good site.

 

[Draco]

10/31 profited $1000 from GS game on $1100 bet
Total profit is $325

11/1 Atlanta to win -1 at Charlotte. The Hawks are clearly a superior team in my opinion and should be a larger favorite. Charlotte is still developing their new offense and a mess on defense without MKG. Bet $1100 to win $1000

11/1 Dallas to win -2.5 at LA Lakers. This Lakers team is a disaster, they might be the second worst NBA team after the 76ers. If they get down big they will give up and complain among themselves. Any NBA team can win on any night but if this game was played 100 times I expect Dallas to win by more than 2 the vast majority of those times. Bet $1100 to win $1000

$100 bet on 7 team parlay. All the favorites to cover except Hou with points and Mil to win. Win $16k.

 

[MickZagger]

What sites do you go through?

 

[MickZagger]

...easy money was Thursday night's NFL game, Pats destroyed that spread!

Dolphins had been playing good though.

 

[Draco]

What sites do you go through?

Cant recommend any. They're either questionable legally, hard to move money in/out, or just overall crappy. When I quit the day job and make millions betting I'll move to Vegas.

Dolphins had been playing good though.

Yeah plus Pats were missing multiple lineman and Thursday night games are notoriously fickle. Thought about teasing that game but just wasn't sure.

 

[Haakzilla]

Dolphins had been playing good though.

Yeah plus Pats were missing multiple lineman and Thursday night games are notoriously fickle. Thought about teasing that game but just wasn't sure.

...I guess you're both in the camp that Tom Brady is NOT the best QB ever (especially at home on prime time)?

 

[Draco]

11/1 Result - NFL lost $1200 bet on teaser; St Louis easily beat San Fran but Atlanta had 4 turnovers and while still gave me a chance in OT came up short. That was a good bet that'll win most the time. Lost $1100 when Seattle won but didn't cover spread. That was a bad bet. Total NFL losses of $2300.
11/1 Result - NBA won $1000 from Atlanta beating Charlotte, it was close. Won $1000 from Dallas beating Lakers by more than 2. Dallas scored first 15 points. Lost $100 parlay. Net wins of $1900 on $2300 of bets.

Thread total results; loss of $75

11/2 Bet - Blazers +190 at Timberwolves. While I might give Minny an advantage it should be closer to even; maybe +120. The spread was 5.5 points but I like the money line here. I'll bet $1000 on the Blazers to win; which would pay me $1900.

edit: the line has changed after making my bet so Timberwolves are now -180. I could bet $1800 on them so I'd either net a profit of $100 with a Blazers win (win $1900 from first bet lose $1800 on 2nd bet) or break even at $0 with a Twolves win (lose $1000 from first bet win $1000 from second bet). Think I'll hold off for now but if line changes a tiny bit more I may lock that up.

11/2 Bet - Bucks EV at Nets. Both teams are 0-3. I think that Nets squad could be one of the worst in the conference while the Bucks are a borderline playoff team. The spread was +1 for the Bucks but I'll go with the money line paying even. $1000 bet to win $1000.

11/8 NFL Bet Atlanta -4 at San Fran. I'm a 9ers fan and Kaepernick is horrific right now. The rest of the roster has issues too. The defense is okay which could cost me if Atlanta only wins by a FG. But I love the chances on this line. Any decent NFL team should have a much bigger spread against my 9ers. Would rather do a teaser with this game but don't see another game to pair with it. So I'll just bet it straight. Bet $1100 to win $1000.

 

[Strenuus]

Wait... are you actually betting this money or just showing us numbers and then saying w/l based on bet amounts?

 

[PHXBlazer1]

Today I've got the over (204) on the Memphis/GS game. I also took Houston straight up against OKC. OKC is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and Houston has been a mess so far, I think tonight they finally pull together and get the win as a home dog. Still undecided on Monday Night Football..

 

[Haakzilla]

Still undecided on Monday Night Football..

...Luck having "cracked ribs" is a little iffy, not sure if they have enough weapons to out match that Panthers D -- I loath Cam Newton though so I will never put any real money on him!

 

[Draco]

Wait... are you actually betting this money or just showing us numbers and then saying w/l based on bet amounts?

Does it matter?

These are actual bets I make. Or maybe I don't want to say if I do and its all hypothetical. But these are all actual win/loss amounts available to bet when I make the decision. I thought it would be fun to track and explain my rational and get others insights.

If you can predict 55% of events you bet on, or 11 of 20, over enough time, and with proper bankroll management, you can win millions. If you can only predict half the events or 10 of 20 bets eventually you'll always go broke. That's because the house pays $10 for every $11 you bet. That $1 difference is their "vig" and how they make their entire profit. So the difference between making money and losing is making that one extra prediction right out of 20.

I've made money betting on sports but never really tracked it. What teams, sports, events do I have an information advantage over Vegas and the masses of NBA bettors? I'd certainly say the Blazers; and at times some other NBA teams. Maybe a few rare football games. I'll post some of my ideas in this thread and others are free to as well, I'll try to explain more of my thought processes. We'll just have to see what happens.

 

[Draco]

...Luck having "cracked ribs" is a little iffy, not sure if they have enough weapons to out match that Panthers D -- I loath Cam Newton though so I will never put any real money on him!

If I was picking a bet I'd take Carolina -5.5. But its close enough I'm not sure and staying away.

 

[PHXBlazer1]

Does it matter?

These are actual bets I make. Or maybe I don't want to say if I do and its all hypothetical. But these are all actual win/loss amounts available to bet when I make the decision. I thought it would be fun to track and explain my rational and get others insights.

If you can predict 55% of events you bet on, or 11 of 20, over enough time, and with proper bankroll management, you can win millions. If you can only predict half the events or 10 of 20 bets eventually you'll always go broke. That's because the house pays $10 for every $11 you bet. That $1 difference is their "vig" and how they make their entire profit. So the difference between making money and losing is making that one extra prediction right out of 20.

I've made money betting on sports but never really tracked it. What teams, sports, events do I have an information advantage over Vegas and the masses of NBA bettors? I'd certainly say the Blazers; and at times some other NBA teams. Maybe a few rare football games. I'll post some of my ideas in this thread and others are free to as well, I'll try to explain more of my thought processes. We'll just have to see what happens.

Great post! I've always been intruiged at the idea of betting on sports professionally. I quit drinking about a month ago and I'm starting to take it a little more seriously. So far I've more than doubled my initial investment, (although admittedly not with proper bankroll management), but now that I've got that cushion I'm gonna dial the bets back a little and bet within my roll. NBA is my best sport by far, so hopefully this will be a profitable season for all of us! Let's keep this thread going!

 

[Draco]

11/2 bet -170 moneyline on TWolves. Since the line dropped so much from my initial bet I decided to effectively cash out half the original Blazer bet. Placed $850 bet on TWolves to win $500. I had earlier bet $1000 on the Blazers to win $1900. So if the Blazers win I make $1050 (1900-850). If the TWolves win I lose $500 (500-1000). This effectively changed my odds to +210 on Blazers.

The other way I could've played this is bet $1700 on the TWolves moneyline and then I'd either make $200 with a Blazers win or with a TWolves win net to a $0 profit, $0 loss.

Or bet $1826 on Twolves and get ~$74 profit regardless of winner.

Or finally just keep my full original bet and be glad the moving line confirmed my initial belief the Blazers shouldn't have been such a large underdog.

 

[Haakzilla]

...I was going to say, the T-wolves are playing for Flip Saunders tribute night so that was a good hedge to minimize your loss!