OT: Some encouraging news if you're worried about the OKC Durants or NY Lebrons

[Nikolokolus]

The context of the analysis is looking at Lebron and his struggles to date winning it all, but extrapolating it out to include the future exploits of the Drurant led Thunder there are some interesting things to ponder.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5956

Here at Basketball-Reference, we recently gathered a new database of player positions that goes further than merely listing guards, forwards, and centers. It isn't live on the player pages yet (that's coming soon), but I've worked with it in several posts over the past few weeks, and today I'm going to use it to see which position has traditionally been the strongest for teams that are successful in the postseason.


Here's the study I ran: First, I calculated Win Shares and John Hollinger's Game Score per game (which I used rather than PER because I can easily make it a per-game metric) for both the regular-season and the playoffs. Then I sorted each team by all four categories, and noted the position of the team's best player in each (players had to play more than half of the team's scheduled games to qualify for the team lead in GmSc/G). Finally, I tallied up the total playoff wins, losses, and championships for teams whose best player was at each position -- so for instance, teams whose best regular-season player by WS was a PG have won 7 championships since 1952, etc.

The only constant? Teams built around small forwards don't tend to be as successful as other positions. Here are the only NBA champs whose best player was (or might have been) a SF:

Year	Team	W	L	WPct	RS-BestbyWS	RS-BestbyGmSc	PO-BestbyWS	PO-BestbyGmSc
1956	PHW	7	3	0.700	        C	C	        SF	           SF
1958	STL	8	3	0.727	        PF	PF	        SF	           SF
1968	BOS	12	7	0.632	        PF	C	        SF	           SF
1969	BOS	12	6	0.667	        PF	SF	        SF	           SF
1974	BOS	12	6	0.667	        SF	SF	        SF	           SF
1975	GSW	12	5	0.706	        SF	SF	        SF	           SF
1981	BOS	12	5	0.706	        SF	SF	        SF	           SF
1984	BOS	15	8	0.652	        SF	SF	        SF	           SF
1986	BOS	15	3	0.833	        SF	SF	        SF	           SF

And Larry Bird & John Havlicek alone make up 2/3 of those cases.

So, of the remaining teams in the playoffs, we have one built around either a C (Amare Stoudemire, regular-season) or a SG (Jason Richardson, playoffs) in the Suns; one built around a SG (Kobe Bryant) or a PF (Pau Gasol) in the Lakers; one built around a center (Dwight Howard) or a PG (Jameer Nelson) in Orlando; one built around a point guard (Rajon Rondo) in Boston; & finally one built around a SF (LeBron James) in Cleveland... And based on these past trends, maybe it shouldn't have been such a surprise that the lone team relying on a SF is on the verge of being eliminated -- since 1952, SFs have been one of the 2 positions (PF being the other) least likely to give you a title, and since 1984 they've been the least likely of all, with no SF having led his team to a title in the last 23 years.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

If LeBron were a Blazer I bet Nate would strictly play him at PF.

6'9" 280 lbs, you're not backing him down, I don't care who you are.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

If LeBron were a Blazer I bet Nate would strictly play him at PF.

6'9" 280 lbs, you're not backing him down, I don't care who you are.

I thought LeBron did play PF (shows what I know, of course)... he's certainly big enough that most teams have to guard him with a PF.

 

[hasoos]

I am not worried about them. But I am concerned about the Portland Odens.

 

[MARIS61]

The Suns are built around Steve Nash, pure and simple, and would be fishing without him.

 

[Eastoff]

The Suns are built around Steve Nash, pure and simple, and would be fishing without him.

He is great, but I think Dragic has made a name for himself

 

[huevonkiller]

You weren't supposed to build around SGs either.

Positions in basketball aren't so set. He doesn't just play "sf", he's just a perimeter force. There are exceptions.