I know some here will think I'm insane (OK, some already do), but I think Westbrook being out makes the Thunder better in two ways. Westbrook has always been a high volume, low efficiency chucker, and was even worse this year than in the past. His shooting percentages are abysmal, but because he thinks he's Batman, and not the Robin he really is, he takes shots away from the much more efficient Kevin Durant. Look at these numbers and tell me if you don't see the obvious problem with Westbrook's game:
Russel Westbrook:
USG% = 32.6
FGA/36 = 19.6
3FGA/36 = 4.8
FG% = .424
3FG% = .309
FT% = .793
TS% = .518
eFG% = .462
Kevin Durant:
USG% = 29.8
FGA/36 = 17.5
3FGA/36 = 4.3
FG% = .490
3FG% = .424
FT% = .886
TS% = .628
eFG% = .542
What a bizarre world Russell Westbrook lives in that he actually thinks he deserves to have a higher USG% and more FGA/36 and more 3FGA/36 than Kevin Durant. Durant is phenomenally more efficient and just flat out one of the best offensive players in the league.
So, if Westbrook is out, that should mean more shots for Durant which means OKC's offensive Eff should go up substantially. Reggie Jackson is also a much better shooter than Russell Westbrook - but without Westbrook's incredibly narcissistic arrogance (I realize that could be considered redundant, but it's the only way I can think of to describe Westbrook's self-love and self importance).
In addition to taking shots away from Durant in general, Westbrook especially freezes out Durant in the 4th quarter of close games. He thinks he's the man, so he's going to be the one taking the big shots, when by all rights it should be Kevin Durant taking the big shots with the game on the line. Westbrook consistently freezes out Durant and calls his own number in the 4th quarter of playoff games. I think OKC will close out close games better with Durant rightly getting the bulk of the shots with the game on the line. He's much more dangerous, especially from 3-point range, more likely to get fouled and more likely to make his FTs when he does.
In case, you can't tell, I absolutely hate Russell Westbrook's game. Which is why I'm glad he plays for OKC. In my opinion, Russell Westbrook dominating ball during the 4th quarter of close playoff games is the biggest obstacle to Kevin Durant winning an NBA championship. There is no denying the guy has talent, just not nearly as much as he thinks he does. He could be a great number 2 option, if he ever realizes that's what he is. He has the second best player in the world as a teammate, but he truly thinks he's better to the detriment of his team.
Of course, there are also two areas where Westbrook's absence will hurt OKC. They will definitely miss his defense. And, although I think moving Reggie Jackson into the starting line-up will improve OKC's offensive efficiency (better shooters getting more shots), it kills their depth at PG. The drop off from Reggie Jackson to Derek the Dinosaur Fisher is monumental (17.0 - 7.5). So, look for Jackson to play big minutes until Westbrook comes back. He'll have to.
So, all-in-all, I don't think this injury isn't as significant as many here seem to think. I think OKC's offensive efficiency will actually increase, but their defensive efficiency will get worse. Those two factors will offset each other, but due to the lack of a quality back-up PG, I suspect OKC will lose a couple more games without Westbrook than they would have with him. But, no way in hell do I think OKC suddenly goes from a .821 team to a .500 team or a .600 team. I suspect they will continue to win around 3/4ths (.750) of their games, give or take. The Blazers upcoming schedule looks to be much tougher than the Thunder's. So, we can't let up and just expect OKC to go away because Russ the ballhog is out. They won't, and the experience gained by guys like Reggie Jackson and Jeremy Lamb will just make them better come playoff time.
The game on Tuesday, without Westbrook, is not a gimme. The Thunder are playing at home and they still have Kevin Durant. They will be fired up to be playing the other top contender in their division, looking to make a statement and looking for revenge for their loss in Portland. Can Portland win? You be they can, but they will need to play one of their best games of the year - they will definitely need to play better than they did against the Clippers last night.
BNM
