Zombie OT: Zion

[BonesJones]

All signals point to Ja being a negative defender (slight negative is his upside imo) and not sold that he'll develop into being a great pull up shooter which might be the single most important skill for guards towards unlocking superstar upside offensively and could also nerf his playmaking a bit.

Zion isn't without his question marks, but I think his are less crucial towards hitting his high end outcomes and make him both the higher floor and higher upside prospect for me.

I respectfully disagree. I don't think all signs point to him being a negative defender. He works hard, and plays with a lot of energy. On an NBA team, he wouldn't have to do literally everything for their offense so he'd probably have more energy to expend on defense. He'll also add a little bit of strength and be better for it.

I think his form is conducive for success as a pull up shooter. Smooth, One-motion shot, quick release, able to transfer energy, and able to shoot it with a good, consistent rhythm. He seems like the guy who was so athletic and quick that he didn't really worry about his shooting until he got to college. He's seemed to have improved throughout the season in that department.

 

[JDC]

I respectfully disagree. I don't think all signs point to him being a negative defender. He works hard, and plays with a lot of energy. On an NBA team, he wouldn't have to do literally everything for their offense so he'd probably have more energy to expend on defense. He'll also add a little bit of strength and be better for it.

I think his form is conducive for success as a pull up shooter. Smooth, One-motion shot, quick release, able to transfer energy, and able to shoot it with a good, consistent rhythm. He seems like the guy who was so athletic and quick that he didn't really worry about his shooting until he got to college. He's seemed to have improved throughout the season in that department.

This is all fair, although I still think it's hard to explain away some of his defensive struggles due to role when you're drafting him to play a similar one in the NBA and if he doesn't, he's likely not hitting his upside offensively.

But I agree that the pull-up shooting could get there, just differ on the degree in which it does. I don't like his mechanics as much as you do (he's a natural lefty and it shows) and I don't think he'll have the type of versatility or ability to hit shots fading away or from difficult angles like the elite offensive guards do (and he may not need to with his athleticism/quickness).

But who knows, guys develop in unsuspecting ways sometimes and Ja seems like a kid where that could be more likely than you'd expect with just any prospect.

Excited to see how things go for him.

 

[THE HCP]

Dead serious question here. I was so busy tonight with work I didn’t see how Zion did? And most importantly was it against quality competition?

 

[BonesJones]

Dead serious question here. I was so busy tonight with work I didn’t see how Zion did? And most importantly was it against quality competition?

?

 

[Driew]

?

HCP trolling haha

 

[THE HCP]

HCP trolling haha

Is that what that’s called FAMS?

 

[PCmor7]

The more I watch Zion, the more I question how his game translates to the next level.

First, he's not a tweener. He's a four. Yes, he can shoot the 3, but a big part of that is attached to the fact that he's such a Mack truck driving to the hoop that he gets a lot of room to take that shot. He's definitely an explosive athlete vertically. But what about laterally? Can he defend the dribble? Can he defend on the perimeter? When he has the ball, can he change directions? I haven't seen enough example of that to be confident he can, and he's going to have to do that to play much if any 3 at the next level. Can he shoot off the dribble? Can he create for others? He has to do that stuff to play the 3.

Then the body type ... it scares me, if I am a team drafting him. He is so top heavy and looks like he has the potential to get heavier. Can his legs, and, most importantly, his knees and ankles, take the kind of pounding that's going to be put on them for 82 games a year plus playoffs?

I just see the potential for him to be this phenom who could physically dominate at the college level but whose liabilities will be magnified greatly in the NBA. He'll be a highlight reel like Blake Griffin was when he first came into the league, but I don't know if he has Blake's ability to reshape his game. I think he might have to reshape his body to have longevity in the NBA, too, and I think his weight and power are the big advantage that he loses in doing that.

I just don't think I am looking at a generational talent when I see him. I don't see a guy I think can be as good as Durant or Giannis right now, let alone a player whose game compares to LeBron.

I keep thinking I am seeing a more explosive Larry Johnson or a shorter Amar'e Stoudemire. That's really good, but it falls short of elite, IMO.

 

[BonesJones]

HCP trolling haha

Usually theres a point to his trolling though.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

The more I watch Zion, the more I question how his game translates to the next level.

First, he's not a tweener. He's a four. Yes, he can shoot the 3, but a big part of that is attached to the fact that he's such a Mack truck driving to the hoop that he gets a lot of room to take that shot. He's definitely an explosive athlete vertically. But what about laterally? Can he defend the dribble? Can he defend on the perimeter? When he has the ball, can he change directions? I haven't seen enough example of that to be confident he can, and he's going to have to do that to play much if any 3 at the next level. Can he shoot off the dribble? Can he create for others? He has to do that stuff to play the 3.

Then the body type ... it scares me, if I am a team drafting him. He is so top heavy and looks like he has the potential to get heavier. Can his legs, and, most importantly, his knees and ankles, take the kind of pounding that's going to be put on them for 82 games a year plus playoffs?

I just see the potential for him to be this phenom who could physically dominate at the college level but whose liabilities will be magnified greatly in the NBA. He'll be a highlight reel like Blake Griffin was when he first came into the league, but I don't know if he has Blake's ability to reshape his game. I think he might have to reshape his body to have longevity in the NBA, too, and I think his weight and power are the big advantage that he loses in doing that.

I just don't think I am looking at a generational talent when I see him. I don't see a guy I think can be as good as Durant or Giannis right now, let alone a player whose game compares to LeBron.

I keep thinking I am seeing a more explosive Larry Johnson or a shorter Amar'e Stoudemire. That's really good, but it falls short of elite, IMO.

I have a lot of the same questions. I will say if he figures out the jump shot and is in the right system defensively he’s gonna be really good (in my opinion).

 

[GhostOfPGA]

Zion’s game will translate because he is a transcendent talent. I’m sure he will sculpt his body better in the NBA and will add to his offensive repertoire.

I just hope he doesn’t get unlucky and get Ewing’d with the Knicks. I much rather see him play with Trae Young and John Collins in Atlanta or in Chicago with Zach LaVine and Lauri Markkanen.

 

[PCmor7]

I have a lot of the same questions. I will say if he figures out the jump shot and is in the right system defensively he’s gonna be really good (in my opinion).

It will help.

As a coach and a scout, though, I always found that one of the most underrated and underdeveloped facets of athleticism when it came to making a great basketball player was flexibility. Yeah, I am looking for strength, speed, and explosiveness, as someone mentioned above, but I also am looking for light feet, soft hands, and coordination. I think what set Michael Jordan apart -- aside from a drive second to none -- was uncanny body control, an ability to change angles and direction and adjust in the air, to minimize contact and still get off a good shot. I often encourage parents of young players to get their kids involved in dance or gymnastics as a way to help develop that.

I watched Zion multiple times in the last two games NOT be able to do that. He was called for at least two charges and probably could have been called for two others. While he recovered well for a block last night in short spaces, on the perimeter he has a lot of trouble with defending quick-twitch movement.

We tend to think of his explosiveness in his leaping/dunking. He has rare vertical explosiveness. But his lateral explosiveness appears very average to me.

I see a lot of Amar'e when I watch him. A little shorter but more physically strong. But I think all that bulk is going to work against him eventually.

 

[PCmor7]

Zion’s game will translate because he is a transcendent talent.

I'm not buying that yet for the reasons I outlined above. He's spectacular in some very eye-catching respects, and he has a media machine that lives on highlight clips. I remember similar talk about Blake Griffin.

I'll wait to see how he develops in two or three years of NBA play before I call him "transcendent" or "generational."

 

[joeBlazers]

Why does Zion remind me of Thomas Robinson? Yes, that Robinson that was #5 pick by Sacramento Kings and played for the Blazers for a couple of years. Ended up a Lakers and China league.
Zion is a more athletic and Undersized PF. Zion is not a SF, not a Center. He will be post-up every night by PF and Centers and outpaced by SF and Guards in the NBA.

 

[hoopsjock]

Every time I watch Duke play I question why Zion doesn't shoot more. Last game they only won by 2 and he was 11-14 from the field. The game he came back he didn't miss but only took 13 shots?

Does he purposely pass up shots to keep his percentages high? If so, this doesn't bode well for him on the next level because he won't get as many easy looks.

Does he have trouble getting shots off against good defense? If so, this also doesn't bode well for him at the next level because he won't just be able to use his athleticism to get by.

Does Coach K not run enough plays for him? If so, why is that the case?

This isn't meant to bash Zion. He should be the #1 pick. I just find it curious why someone so physically dominating isn't getting more shots in close games.

 

[tlongII]

Every time I watch Duke play I question why Zion doesn't shoot more. Last game they only won by 2 and he was 11-14 from the field. The game he came back he didn't miss but only took 13 shots?

Does he purposely pass up shots to keep his percentages high? If so, this doesn't bode well for him on the next level because he won't get as many easy looks.

Does he have trouble getting shots off against good defense? If so, this also doesn't bode well for him at the next level because he won't just be able to use his athleticism to get by.

Does Coach K not run enough plays for him? If so, why is that the case?

This isn't meant to bash Zion. He should be the #1 pick. I just find it curious why someone so physically dominating isn't getting more shots in close games.

It’s because they have a lot of other blue chip recruits.

 

[hoopsjock]

It’s because they have a lot of other blue chip recruits.

Nah, I don't buy that logic at all.

Cam Reddish has been terrible on offense. Tre Jones hasn't shot well this year either. RJ Barrett is a high volume scorer but not super efficient.

Zion shoots 75% on 2 point FG's and has an insane 70% true shooting %. He should be taking more than 13 shots.

 

[tlongII]

Nah, I don't buy that logic at all.

Cam Reddish has been terrible on offense. Tre Jones hasn't shot well this year either. RJ Barrett is a high volume scorer but not super efficient.

Zion shoots 75% on 2 point FG's and has an insane 70% true shooting %. He should be taking more than 13 shots.

You have to give the other guys shots. It’s what you recruited them for.

 

[Minstrel]

Michael Jordan didn't get a ton of shots per game, even in his junior season when he was the clearly best offensive player on his team and, to most people, the best player in college basketball, because Dean Smith didn't believe in having one player dominate the offense. Mike Krzyzewski is very similar in that regard. He rarely empowers his best player to just take over and dominate the offense.

 

[hoopsjock]

You have to give the other guys shots. It’s what you recruited them for.

Michael Jordan didn't get a ton of shots per game, even in his junior season when he was the clearly best offensive player on his team and, to most people, the best player in college basketball, because Dean Smith didn't believe in having one player dominate the offense. Mike Krzyzewski is very similar in that regard. He rarely empowers his best player to just take over and dominate the offense.

I hate to question a legendary coach like Coach K or Dean Smith, but Duke has barely survived the last two games and Jordan (after they won the championship his Freshman year) never made it back to the Final Four.

Zion makes 3 out of every 4 shots he makes inside the 3 point line. Is the object to win games or make sure everyone gets their fair share of shots, even if they don't deserve it?

 

[Minstrel]

I hate to question a legendary coach like Coach K or Dean Smith, but Duke has barely survived the last two games and Jordan (after they won the championship his Freshman year) never made it back to the Final Four.

Zion makes 3 out of every 4 shots he makes inside the 3 point line. Is the object to win games or make sure everyone gets their fair share of shots, even if they don't deserve it?

I agree with you. Sometimes, I wonder if certain college coaches are less focused on winning at all (ethical) costs and fetishize "playing the right way." I mean, there are pro coaches like Pop and Kerr, among others, who place a real premium on ball movement and getting everyone involved, but when push came to shove, guys like Curry, Durant, Duncan still got the lion's share of the shots. I wouldn't be surprised if coaches like Dean Smith and Mike Krzyzewski place such an emphasis on a certain team-based ethos that they'd rather lose their way than win by riding a top star.

 

[handiman]

Every time I watch Duke play I question why Zion doesn't shoot more. Last game they only won by 2 and he was 11-14 from the field. The game he came back he didn't miss but only took 13 shots?

From the few games I've watched, it seems like he doesn't have a good sense of how to run an offensive set and just sort of floats out there, waiting for explosive highlight reel plays. He probably never had the slightest hint of a physical challenge in HS, and many one-and-doners struggle with learning the system, so a lot of that may be new to him. It's a mild concern, but not a red flag.

As a coach and a scout, though, I always found that one of the most underrated and underdeveloped facets of athleticism when it came to making a great basketball player was flexibility. Yeah, I am looking for strength, speed, and explosiveness, as someone mentioned above, but I also am looking for light feet, soft hands, and coordination. I think what set Michael Jordan apart -- aside from a drive second to none -- was uncanny body control, an ability to change angles and direction and adjust in the air, to minimize contact and still get off a good shot...

I watched Zion multiple times in the last two games NOT be able to do that.

What about the play in the first half yesterday, where he went up for either a lob pass or errant shot (who can tell with Duke?!) ... facing away from the hoop ... and twisted in mid-air for the easy layup? I agree with all your points above, except for the one about Zion lacking in that area. That looks like a strength to me, not a weakness.

 

[PCmor7]

From the few games I've watched, it seems like he doesn't have a good sense of how to run an offensive set and just sort of floats out there, waiting for explosive highlight reel plays. He probably never had the slightest hint of a physical challenge in HS, and many one-and-doners struggle with learning the system, so a lot of that may be new to him. It's a mild concern, but not a red flag.



What about the play in the first half yesterday, where he went up for either a lob pass or errant shot (who can tell with Duke?!) ... facing away from the hoop ... and twisted in mid-air for the easy layup? I agree with all your points above, except for the one about Zion lacking in that area. That looks like a strength to me, not a weakness.

It's one example. Overall, I just have seen a lot more examples where he lacks it than when he shows it. I can hit a couple of shots from the logo, too, but if I shoot 33 percent at the foul line, it kind of overrides the outlier.

 

[PCmor7]

On the opposite side of the spectrum, how Carsen Edwards doesn't get more attention for the draft is beyond me. He shoots well off the dribble with range. He can get to the hoop. I think he's Kemba Walker.

 

[PCmor7]

I hate to question a legendary coach like Coach K or Dean Smith, but Duke has barely survived the last two games and Jordan (after they won the championship his Freshman year) never made it back to the Final Four.

Zion makes 3 out of every 4 shots he makes inside the 3 point line. Is the object to win games or make sure everyone gets their fair share of shots, even if they don't deserve it?

I think another part of this is where his shots are coming from. They are mostly dunks and layups. He's not breaking down guys off the dribble facing the basket, and, at least at the college level, he requires a double-team down on the block because of his awesome strength.

 

[handiman]

It's one example. Overall, I just have seen a lot more examples where he lacks it than when he shows it. I can hit a couple of shots from the logo, too, but if I shoot 33 percent at the foul line, it kind of overrides the outlier.

Making a lucky shot and pulling off a difficult physical maneuver are very different things. If you can show it on occasion, you have it.

 

[THE HCP]

I think another part of this is where his shots are coming from. They are mostly dunks and layups. He's not breaking down guys off the dribble facing the basket, and, at least at the college level, he requires a double-team down on the block because of his awesome strength.

His low post game is off the charts man. He has up and under moves that would make Kevin McHale proud.

 

[PCmor7]

Making a lucky shot and pulling off a difficult physical maneuver are very different things. If you can show it on occasion, you have it.

I don't think that's really true. In fact, I think just saying what you did -- "If you can show it on occasion ..." -- OK, so why does he not show it on more occasions when he needs it? I think it comes down to being able to do something vs. being able to do something somewhat consistently.

 

[Haakzilla]

On the opposite side of the spectrum, how Carsen Edwards doesn't get more attention for the draft is beyond me. He shoots well off the dribble with range. He can get to the hoop. I think he's Kemba Walker.

...looks more like a Shabazz Napier to me

 

[PCmor7]

His low post game is off the charts man. He has up and under moves that would make Kevin McHale proud.

Kevin McHale was three inches taller playing in a different time when bigs had a different role. Is he going to be able to handle someone line Giannis in the paint? Is he going to be able to guard KD? Can he match up with LeBron? Heck, what's he going to do against LMA or Porzingis or Doncic or players like that? To be a "generational" or "transcendant" talent, I think a player has to be clearly the best at his position.

I'm not saying he's not going to be a really good pro, but that he's got a lot of question marks in his game that get overlooked because he makes these highlight reel dunks and blocks. Blake Griffin was a similar case, and Amar'e. Zion's not going to be able to bully these fours at the next level like he does in college. At the same time, he is going to have to adjust his game to deal with the length of fours in the NBA or get a lot quicker to try to defend threes ... and foot quickness is one of the most difficult qualities to acquire.

And, again, that doesn't even get into the whole question of how his body is going to handle the wear and tear of a schedule three-to-four times as long. Beyond Shaq, how many players of Zion's body type have thrived for long in the NBA? Charles Oakley? Anthony Mason? I think there's a reason for that. And neither of those players had a game so dependent on physical explosiveness as Zion Williamson, nor were either player what I would consider "elite."

 

[PCmor7]

...looks more like a Shabazz Napier to me

That's fair. But Napier still was a first-round NBA draft pick who's managed to carve a niche for himself and play in the NBA for five years already. Kemba's been in the league three years longer and was a mid-lottery pick. Whoever you compare him to, you're talking a guy who got picked in the first round and stuck in the league. We're just debating the level of his play, which, I would say, probably is most likely somewhere between Walker and Napier.