Our ridiculous logjam at guard

[Hobbesarable]

PG - Dame/Baldwin
SG - CJ/Curry/Stauskas/Simons/Trent

That's not even counting Turner as a guard.

Nearly half our roster are guards, and only two of them are capable of running an offense. And the crappy part is that most, if not all, deserve playing time.

Dame - no explanation necessary

CJ - no explanation necessary

WB4 - I would love to see more of this guy. I think he has a lot of potential. I love his defense and his swagger.

Curry - The guy seemed to really click with the Mavs. 13 ppg on 48% shooting and 42.5% from three. Could be a very nice player off the bench.

Stauskas - honestly the only player from the group that I have zero interest in.

Simons - I want to see this kid get some minutes and grow.

Trent - I think he could contribute right away. He strikes me as an Allen Crabbe that actually has some fire and drive.

There's just simply no way we're going to have this many guards on the active roster. Especially since our front court seems so thin.

Aminu/Collins? Swanigan?
Nurk/Collins? Swanigan? Meyers?

Trade coming soon?

I see it this way

PG - Dame/Baldwin
SG - CJ/Curry
SF - Trent (he might see some spot minutes at SG)

I don't expect to see Simons or Stauskas as part of the regular rotation. Simons is a project player. Stauskas is a vet min guy there mainly for practices and a spot at the end of the bench.

 

[riverman]

Stotts usually mixes up the roster early in the season and settles into a 10 man rotation after the allstar break....some bench guys are injury insurance

 

[Natebishop3]

I think Biggie and Layman are going to play a lot of 4....Collins will play a lot of minutes as well as Meyers...we'll just have guards waiving towels..instead of Meyers Biggie and Pappa G ...Stauskas is 6'7....he and Trent can play the SF which is actually not a guard position...as well as ET and Mo...

Stauskas is 6'6, and more importantly, his wingspan is only 6'7.

Compare that to someone like Baldwin, who is only 6'4 but has a wingspan of 6'11. Or Simons, who is only 6'4 but has a wingspan of 6'9.

Stauskas is not a small forward. He's a prototypical shooting guard. At least Trent, who is just under 6'6, has a wingspan of just under 6'9. I don't see Stauskas as someone who can defend the three.

 

[James lamphear]

Nik and Trent can play SF and the 2 and that flexibility for Stotts is good. But what I see in the second unit is Curry ET Zach either Nik/Trent Swanigan/Leonard. I think Layman could battle Swanigan and Leonard for minutes at the 4.

 

[Propagandist]

Nik and Trent can play SF and the 2 and that flexibility for Stotts is good. But what I see in the second unit is Curry ET Zach either Nik/Trent Swanigan/Leonard. I think Layman could battle Swanigan and Leonard for minutes at the 4.

What you're describing is a lottery team...

 

[riverman]

Stauskas is 6'6, and more importantly, his wingspan is only 6'7.

Compare that to someone like Baldwin, who is only 6'4 but has a wingspan of 6'11. Or Simons, who is only 6'4 but has a wingspan of 6'9.

Stauskas is not a small forward. He's a prototypical shooting guard. At least Trent, who is just under 6'6, has a wingspan of just under 6'9. I don't see Stauskas as someone who can defend the three.

Stauskas will not crack the rotation in my view...as I said...he's injury insurance or foul trouble insurance....if we need to fill the court with 3 pt shooters...he might get the occasional nod...

 

[Scalma]

Stauskas was a pointless signing who we cant even cut.

 

[blue9]

Logic would suggest that but Neil is probably more likely to trade Trent for some old white guy like Korver.

Normally I'd agree. But I think the financial situation we're in, coupled with the notion that we're not gonna compete, will prevent him from giving us another Olshey Special.

 

[James lamphear]

Stauskas is 6'6, and more importantly, his wingspan is only 6'7.

Compare that to someone like Baldwin, who is only 6'4 but has a wingspan of 6'11. Or Simons, who is only 6'4 but has a wingspan of 6'9.

Stauskas is not a small forward. He's a prototypical shooting guard. At least Trent, who is just under 6'6, has a wingspan of just under 6'9. I don't see Stauskas as someone who can defend the three.

I think both Nik or Trent both will guard the 2 and play the 3 on offensive because ET can guard the 3 and will handle the ball on offensive so I don't see that will be a problem.

 

[calvin natt]

i just think the nba is getting further and further away from small or big or guards or forwards or centers. you play 5 guys who can defend the other team and score on the other team. if the other teams are going small, and we are seeing the extinction of the caleb swanigan type guys in the nba - then their mish mash of size and positions seems not too bad to me. I care more about talent level.

 

[TBpup]

Neil is setting the team up for a CJ trade.

James Butler.....come on down!

If you want to balance, it does seem like CJ + Trent could have quite a bit of value, but Butler or some other starting guard better be involved.

CJ to Tpups
Harkless, Trent, Taj Gibson to Cleveland
Butler and Love to Blazers

I'd Love getting Butler and Kevin here....but MIN isn't giving up Butler and Gibson just for CJ.

 

[LayneStaley]

Turner Chief Mo Layman Harkless and Swanigan are all the same height as Draymond Green

Yet none have half the talent

 

[Wizard Mentor]

When you think about it’s the same exact problem we had the last couple of years in the front court.

We had an imbalance and what did Neil do? He traded one center for another center, and then drafted two bigs.

This year he drafts two guards, and then signs another two in free agency.

He either has no idea how to build a roster, or overestimates the value of his players in trade discussions.

I almost always love your posts, but you've gone off the rails here. Neil drafts for the future, and appropriately so, especially considering where he is drafting. So, it's more like

Neil traded a mediocre center for a good center. (Good Job, Neil)
Neil obtained a player for 2018-19 or 2019-20. Miraculously, that player was good enough to play in 2017-18. (Good Job, Neil)
Neil obtained another player for 2019-20 or 2020-21. Player has shown good things in SL 2 years in a row (Good Job, Neil)
One Year Later.
Neil obtained a player for 2019-20 or 2020-21. Dude has shown that he is physically capable of playing right away if need be (Good Job, Neil)
Neil obtained a player for 2020-21 or 2021-22. Dude has shown that he is definitely going to be worth the wait. (Good Job, Neil)

Neil has problems, but not the ones you addressed.
#WaitingForAnImpactPlayer

 

[BBert]

You don't see an imbalance when literally a third of our roster is 6'4 and under?

Harkless and Layman might be able to play the four in a pinch, but they're not power forwards. There's a reason why Aminu can handle that position and it's because of his length.

Furthermore, we lost our only dependable backup big man. Collins is a project. Biggie has shown zero evidence that he can play in the NBA. Summer league? Maybe. G league? Sure. Actual rotation minutes in the NBA? Nope. Meyers is our elder statesman in the front court for pete's sake.

Meyers Baron Cohen to the rescue.

 

[Natebishop3]

I care more about talent level.

Okay. That could be an interesting exercise. Rank the players on our team from first to last in terms of talent.

1. Dame
2. CJ
3. Nurk

Those are the easy ones.

4. Aminu
5. Turner
6. Harkless

That's basically our starting five and our first guy off the bench.

7. Collins
8. Curry
9. Baldwin
10. Simons
11. Layman
12. Trent
13. Meyers
14. Swanigan
15. Stauskas

That's how I would rank them. I think Trent and Layman are very close in terms of talent as of right now. That might change. I gave Curry the edge over Baldwin and Simons because he has actually averaged nearly 13 ppg in his last season. So my issue is that after you get past the first 7 players, there's a big logjam of talented guards that need minutes.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I will put it another way.

We have a combined 96 minutes to dole out between the two guard positions per game.

Dame and CJ have historically played a combined 72 minutes per game between those two positions. That leaves about 24 minutes total per game for the 7 players on our team that play guard. It's not really good or necessary to have that many guys at our two strongest positions.

Now, maybe we're stocking up because Neil is planning on making a trade.... or maybe those were just the best players available in the draft, but add in Simons and Trent to us also signing Curry and Stauskas and it's really a head scratcher.

Conversely, our frontcourt is in a very tumultuous state with Ed Davis leaving. With the exception of Nurk, none of our other bigs are reliable centers. And yes, we can play Aminu and Harkless at power forward, but Harkless has not been an effective four for us, as the numbers show. So when I say there's an imbalance on our roster, I'm talking about the talent. We have a disproportionate amount of talent at guard compared to forward and center.

I think I see where you're going with this, but I guess I come at it from a slightly different perspective.

A) I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt that Simons and TrentJr were about as good as could be picked where they were. In other words, this isn't a Nolan Smith/Luke Babbitt reach.
B) You use the dearth of "reliable centers" as a hit to roster creation, but I don't know that I trust Stauskas, Simons, Curry or Trent any more in a real live NBA game than I do Collins and Swanigan (and to a lesser extent, Leonard). Yes, there are bodies with potential, but Collins is by far the most potentialiest of those 7.
C) I'm on the "we'll miss Ed" wagon as much as anyone, but your same minutes concern w/Dame and CJ (They'll play 72) can be also extended to Nurk/Collins. I think they play 60+ mpg, which doesn't leave a ton of room for SmallBall Aminu and Hark--much less Leonard.

Personally, I think he's both stocking up on pure shooters and hedging against a CJ move or injury. But I think the very way we brought in many of the new guys (either on short contracts, or minimums that don't hurt us, or both) makes it so that, if Stauskas super-suxx, he goes the way of PapaG. If Simons spends Caleb Swanigan time in the G-League, that doesn't hurt us a ton. If Curry gets injured again we have options.

I think the tight 9-man of Dame, CJ, Baldwin/Curry, Turner, Aminu, Hark, Collins, Nurk (with Layman and Leonard maybe getting run, and Trent and Simon if someone fails) is still pretty decent, and we're worried about Stauskas and Swanigan on deep bench duty...

 

[Scalma]

I almost always love your posts, but you've gone off the rails here. Neil drafts for the future, and appropriately so, especially considering where he is drafting. So, it's more like

Neil traded a mediocre center for a good center. (Good Job, Neil)
Neil obtained a player for 2018-19 or 2019-20. Miraculously, that player was good enough to play in 2017-18. (Good Job, Neil)
Neil obtained another player for 2019-20 or 2020-21. Player has shown good things in SL 2 years in a row (Good Job, Neil)
One Year Later.
Neil obtained a player for 2019-20 or 2020-21. Dude has shown that he is physically capable of playing right away if need be (Good Job, Neil)
Neil obtained a player for 2020-21 or 2021-22. Dude has shown that he is definitely going to be worth the wait. (Good Job, Neil)

Neil has problems, but not the ones you addressed.
#WaitingForAnImpactPlayer

Let me have my bad day goddammit!!

 

[oldmangrouch]

On paper there is a log-jam. In reality, Stauskas is pretty much just a practice player, and Simons and Trent are too young to trust with major minutes. Our functional backcourt is Dame and CJ with Baldwin and Curry absorbing most of the remaining minutes. If we get the Curry from 2 years ago, that will work. If Curry isn't the same player he was before his injury, backcourt depth is actually a problem.

Edit: Actually, I suspect Trent's future is at the 3 - but that is just a guess at this point.

 

[James lamphear]

What you're describing is a lottery team...

That's our 2nd unit not the 1st unit. But also see Cj in that 2nd unit also like last year and use Curry and either Trent or Nik as he did Pat and Napier. You might see Baldwin in the mix also. But that's why you have a training camp to find out what Stotts rotation will be at the start of the season. This all speculation on my part.

 

[riverman]

Yet none have half the talent

well then that pretty much sums up your take....I disagree...Chief is very, very talented as a 4 and an elite defender.

 

[Propagandist]

That's our 2nd unit not the 1st unit. But also see Cj in that 2nd unit also like last year and use Curry and either Trent or Nik as he did Pat and Napier. You might see Baldwin in the mix also. But that's why you have a training camp to find out what Stotts rotation will be at the start of the season. This all speculation on my part.

For fuck's sake. Allow me to rephrase: what you're describing is the bench of a lottery team.

 

[BBert]

I was just today thinking that I kind of like our ridiculous log jam at guard. We are tooled up better at the guard spots, IMO, for this season than last season; and we drafted two players and kept another who may well continue our strong guard play for years to come. Granted our front court is somewhat worrisome. We'll have to see how things unfold. At the moment though, the NBA is a guards and wings league, so maybe it won't hurt us so bad.

 

[James lamphear]

For fuck's sake. Allow me to rephrase: what you're describing is the bench of a lottery team.

There you go.

 

[Scalma]

I was just today thinking that I kind of like our ridiculous log jam at guard. We are tooled up better at the guard spots, IMO, for this season than last season; and we drafted two players and kept another who may well continue our strong guard play for years to come. Granted our front court is somewhat worrisome. We'll have to see how things unfold. At the moment though, the NBA is a guards and wings league, so maybe it won't hurt us so bad.

I’m worried about our front court. If Nurk or Collins go down we’re done. We can’t add any more free agents. So we’re relying on a trade or one of Biggie/Meyers. Aka We’re fucked.

 

[riverman]

speed and 3 pt shooting....we're going to run and gun this season...we actually have some fast break finishers and in Baldwin a guy who can throw an alley oop pass on a dime.

 

[Natebishop3]

On paper there is a log-jam. In reality, Stauskas is pretty much just a practice player, and Simons and Trent are too young to trust with major minutes. Our functional backcourt is Dame and CJ with Baldwin and Curry absorbing most of the remaining minutes. If we get the Curry from 2 years ago, that will work. If Curry isn't the same player he was before his injury, backcourt depth is actually a problem.

I see the frontcourt as a much bigger problem.

http://www.82games.com/1718/1718POR2.HTM

Aminu has a decent win% at power forward (58%) but he is a net negative PER when comparing him to his opponent.

Harkless is a horrible power forward. His win% at power forward is 35% and an even worse -9.2 PER when he's playing the four.

Layman actually plays his best ball at shooting guard (yay another guard!), but he's a net negative at all three positions that he saw time.

Collins was a disaster last year.. and surprisingly he never saw time with Nurk (at least not according to this), but he was a massive net negative compared to his opponents. He played much better defense at power forward though. I still think that's his future position and it's concerning that the team isn't playing him with Nurk.

Meyers is a center. Plain and simple. When they played him at power forward it was an unmitigated disaster. He put up a PER of 11.4 at power forward last season, and his opponents put up a PER of 48.4 at power forward, for a whopping -37 PER. He should never play that position again in his life. Conversely, his play at center was a wash.

Swanigan's best position is center.... and that's unfortunate because he can't defend a chair. He put up a PER of 23.9 at center, but his opponent put up a PER of 42.6. That's no bueno.

If you go strictly off these numbers then these are the positions that our players should be playing:

Layman- shooting guard
Aminu - small forward
Harkless - small forward
Collins - power forward
Meyers - center
Swanigan - center

So if we could go out and get a decent power forward, like Love, we would be set.

Dame/Baldwin
CJ/Curry
Aminu/Harkless
Love/Collins
Nurk/Leonard/Swanigan

 

[riverman]

Layman actually plays his best ball at shooting guard (yay another guard!), but he's a net negative at all three positions that he saw time.

all 4 minutes?

 

[Natebishop3]

all 4 minutes?

It was a joke.

 

[Reep]

So if we could go out and get a decent power forward, like Love, we would be set.

Dame/Baldwin
CJ/Curry
Aminu/Harkless
Love/Collins
Nurk/Leonard/Swanigan

Love would be more exciting to me if we had a better defensive player at the 2. Having CJ and Love on the floor at the same time seems troublesome on defense.

 

[calvin natt]

i dont see a logjam anywhere. when I think logjam I think guys fighting for the same time on the court with similar talent. we have a bunch of average/bad NBA players who wont play much. Eliminate them from the equation. If we had Nurkic and a similar C on the team and a really good backup, that's a logjam. We have a clear top 5-6, then whoever comes in just needs to not be terrible. im depressed about next year.

And really, if we are even thinking Layman is a significant player next year we are screwed anyway.