Over/Under Who's going to win?

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Denny Crane

Denny Crane

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This is a sort of game. Not exactly a poll. Use this thread to post your gut feeling about the odds of Obama or Romney (or someone else) winning the election. You can make a post today with one set of odds and change your mind tomorrow and post those as well. Hence not a poll. You can provide analysis if you like as well.

So to start it off, I say it's about 55-45 that Obama wins.

That said, the no toss ups poll on RCP says 277-261 Obama. Romney needs to win Ohio or Wisconsin, or both Nevada and Iowa. I'm not sure Romney can win any one of those states at this point. Obama isn't exactly strong there, but it would take a decent shift in the polls there for Romney to win.
 
Doesn't matter which candidate wins, in the end it's America that will lose.
 
As I see it, Obama started out with over 300 EVs and 53% of the vote. Romney's had an uphill fight the whole time, and he's quite close to making it to the top of that hill. He's not quite there yet, and time's running out. If there were 2-3 polls showing he's closer in Ohio or PA or some other combination of states, my spread would be closer to (both) yours. As it is now, it looks to me like Obama wins 276 or so EVs.
 
I say there's about a 58% chance Obama wins the electoral college, and also about a 52% chance that Romney wins the popular vote.
 
I think Obama will win, but who knows with the mysterious, and unverifiable way they count certain districts.
 
Ignore the polls. There is only one poll that matters.

Romney is going to win pretty easily.

Start with the 2008 election, which was an outlier in many ways.

Republican voters, tired of the 8 Bush years, and dismayed by the crumbling economy, had an unusually low turnout in many states.

Democrats were able to get excellent turnout in many states due to the strong pull of the "fantasy" Obama campaign. With no significant accomplishments or Legislative record of note, and with a horrifyingly corrupt media covering against a proper vetting, Obama was a blank slate that could be painted with every voter's fantasy.

Now in 2012, he has a record to run on. And, in most ways it is so terrible, he can't run on his complete record. Has to cherry pick and lie - a lot. Has to try to scare voters that Romney would pull the plug on Grandma, outsource every last job to China, and force every woman to get raped and have a back alley abortion. The base eats it up. Swing voters see right through the baloney.

The majority of voters who voted for Obama in 2008 will vote for him again - if they vote. He will lose a lot of votes to lack of enthusiasm. But the majority is not nearly all. Obama is going to lose a lot of the votes from independants he picked up in 2008. A lot of those independants are not aligned with the base Democrats. They gave Obama a shot to be the "healer", bridge the divide, fixed the Bush economy, and so on. Obama did none of those things. So why should most of those independants pull his lever again without great hesitation?

The only significant positive factor for the Obama campian in 2012 that I see is the Latino vote. He should pick a decent gain in votes from that factor. However, of the swing states, only Nevada seems to be a problem for Romney due to the Latino vote problem. Of course, if Romney does lose some of the other swing states, it may be a big Latino turnout was a large factor.

Romney will get nearly every single vote that went for McCain. Polls taken this summer (way before the debates changed everything) showed virtually no McCain voters switching to Obama, or considering doing so.

Romney is generating significantly more enthusiasm than McCain, and will end up converting a higher percentage of his supporters to actual votes than McCain did.

Also recall that McCain used public financing and was out of money well before election day. They could not make a strong final push. Romney did not make the mistake of allowing Obama to vastly outspend him.

To recap, Romney starts out with pretty much all the votes McCain ended up with. Then add more votes from a stronger turnout from Republicans. Then add a significant pickup of votes from Independants (Obama is polling far lower with Independants than in 2008). Then add a much stronger ground game from the Republicans built off of the 2010 election cycle. Then add a strong final push by Romney campaign that doesn't run out of money, mojo or enthusiasm near the finish line.
 
I was going to post this earlier today and forgot...

I think Obama's going to win pretty handily at this point. The popular vote will be within +/- 2%, but I don't see how Romney makes it to 270. The hurricane turned out to be the October Surprise. Mostly kept Romney from campaigning while the president got to play the role of president. The storm hit so close to the election, timing, that the people won't realize how inept the government is before election time. All Obama's had to do was say he ordered government to somehow move faster than the DMV and that's what people will know by the time they vote.

Plus, I don't think there's enough time to change the narrative in Ohio from the Jeeps in China thing to something else. The newspapers have brutalized Romney over it.
 
speaking of October surprises, whatever came of Gloria Allreds surprise?
 
Masbee said:
Ignore the polls. There is only one poll that matters.
Click to expand...

the masbee poll of masbee?

the factors you mention are why the race is much closer than 2008 and why romney has a good shot at the national popular vote, but the only way romney wins is if ohio and other battleground state polling has been systematically biased for obama for months. seems unlikely given the scope.
 
crowTrobot said:
the masbee poll of masbee?

the factors you mention are why the race is much closer than 2008 and why romney has a good shot at the national popular vote, but the only way romney wins is if ohio and other battleground state polling has been systematically biased for obama for months. seems unlikely given the scope.
Click to expand...

Why is it unlikely?

Almost all of the polls are using the 2008 election to weight the results.

As I explained, I personally don't see Obama getting out the Dem vote in the numbers he did in 2008, nor do I see the Independants breaking for him the way the did in 2008.

If you agree with those statements, then by definition, most of the polls you have been seeing the topline results are wrong.
 
There's no current polls I'd trust in the swing states hit hard by the hurricane. There may also be a lot of displaced people who'd skew polls. Like a friend of mine can't commute to work in NY due to the subway being closed, so they're going to hop on a plane and party in Vegas while their house is reconstructed.

A lot of people simply aren't going to be able to get to the polls. The polling places may not have power or be accessible even.

Then you can follow the candidates. They're going in person where they want to gain votes.

So if Romney is in PA, it means he's either sewn up the 270 and trying to stretch his victory, or it means he's seeing he's lost Ohio and needs a Hail Mary kind of win on PA. I'm thinking Hail Mary.

There are other possibilities - like he's got so much money to spend he may as well spend it on ads in PA, but why go there?
 
julius said:
speaking of October surprises, whatever came of Gloria Allreds surprise?
Click to expand...

How much press did her PR stunt get?

A little bit before, none after, right?

How much press did Trump PR stunt get?

A little bit before, lots of mocking press after, right?

In reality, Trump has a shred of something to pick at - Obama's secrecy and hiding of a large part of his personal history.

Allred, went to court to have sealed divorce records released to the public. Why this should be allowed, I don't know. Regardless, the judge granted that request.

Turns out no smoking guns exist in 3 days of Romney testimony.

Romney testified that he thought Staples was a good company that was in a risky phase, and he didn't agree with the founder that it was a sure thing.

Romney's words were backed up by his actions. He didn't "load up" on all the Staples stock they were allowed.

Allred also requested that the gag order on her client (the ex-wife) be lifted. This claim was denied because Allred (one of the best lawyers in the country according to Obama) failed to file a motion. Request denied.

Allred should have been mocked mercilessly in the media.

No such luck.
 
The unemployment report out tomorrow could also swing things.
 
Masbee said:
Almost all of the polls are using the 2008 election to weight the results.
Click to expand...


i'm not an expert but i'd be surprised if most state polls are extrapolating results based simply on 2008 turnout demographics without any adjustments. my understanding is that there is a wide range of methods being used.
 
crowTrobot said:
i'm not an expert but i'd be surprised if most state polls are extrapolating results based simply on 2008 turnout demographics without any adjustments. my understanding is that there is a wide range of methods being used.
Click to expand...

How would you approach determining who's a likely voter?
 
crowTrobot said:
ask as part of the poll. again, no expertise claimed but i've read some polls do incorporate current demographic enthusiasm level.
Click to expand...

I think you can ask, but you can't just accept the answer.

Doesn't it sorta make sense to figure if 50% of democrats voted last time, that 50% of the democrats in the poll will be likely voters?

It's not that simple, of course. But that is exactly where people are complaining about the 2008 vs. 2010 voter turnout figured distorting polls (who are likely voters?).
 
The outcome of this election was never in doubt. At least not since the GOP primary candidates were finalized.

barfo
 
barfo said:
The outcome of this election was never in doubt. At least not since the GOP primary candidates were finalized.

barfo
Click to expand...

It's not Lupus.....it's never Lupus.

Broad strokes of wishful thinking....
 
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