Patty Love From The Bay..

[Ed O]

Spoken like someone who doesn't understand the limitations of statistics.

Just curious, is there anyone on the list who actually saw him play 3 games or more that thinks those stats are an accurate portrayal of Mills' abilities?

Are there any NBA scouts or decisionmakers on the list?

If so, and given that he almost went undrafted last week, I would bet that there are some people who probably don't think that the stats understate his accomplishments and capabilities.

Ed O.

 

[PapaG]

Are there any NBA scouts or decisionmakers on the list?

If so, and given that he almost went undrafted last week, I would bet that there are some people who probably don't think that the stats understate his accomplishments and capabilities.

Ed O.

Chris Paul and Coach K raved about the guy last summer, and he was unguardable in college and could get in the paint at will against Team USA both times he played them. I really do wonder what caused the guy to drop so far. He's a good defender with a good handle and marginal outside shot who carried a garbage team to one NCAA tournament and almost to another (St. Mary's didn't make it solely because Mills got injured).

I wonder what made Mike Conley Jr. a lottery pick and Patty Mills a secound-round pick. I'm not saying Mills should have been anything more than a 2nd-round pick, but I'd like to see the scouting reports that caused the guy to drop so far in a very weak draft. He proved he can at least compete against NBA talent as a 19 year-old, and Aaron Brooks and Rajon Rondo have shown how important having quick guards in the age of no hand-checking can be in a half-court offense.

 

[B-Roy]

Spoken like someone who doesn't understand the limitations of statistics.

Just curious, is there anyone on the list who actually saw him play 3 games or more that thinks those stats are an accurate portrayal of Mills' abilities?

To be clear, I'm not some raving irrational fan about Mills. I'd be surprised if he contributes much next season, but could see him be a solid spark plug off the bench the following season. It's just that if you're going to dis him, I think you're probably on thin ice to dis him as a scorer.

Right, do I trust statistical analysis or the observations of a random fan? Look, I know statistics can be misleading, but more often than not, the statistics paint a pretty accurate portrayal of the caliber of the player. Given that Mills was picked 55th in the draft, I'm not willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and say he's going to overcome the stats and become a useful player in the NBA. Call me what you will, I don't care. I can't see Mills ever averaging more than 5-7 mins a game, and he'll be out of the league after two years MAX. You can quote me on that.

 

[mobes23]

Are there any NBA scouts or decisionmakers on the list?

If so, and given that he almost went undrafted last week, I would bet that there are some people who probably don't think that the stats understate his accomplishments and capabilities.

Ed O.

Ya missed the point there, lawyer man. I was focused on his ability as a scorer -- that was the issue. You left out the part of my post where I said other attributes are more dissable and may have caused him to slide (most likely the possiblity he's a two guard stuck in a PG's body.)

 

[Mediocre Man]

Chris Paul and Coach K raved about the guy last summer, and he was unguardable in college and could get in the paint at will against Team USA both times he played them. I really do wonder what caused the guy to drop so far. He's a good defender with a good handle and marginal outside shot who carried a garbage team to one NCAA tournament and almost to another (St. Mary's didn't make it solely because Mills got injured).

I wonder what made Mike Conley Jr. a lottery pick and Patty Mills a secound-round pick. I'm not saying Mills should have been anything more than a 2nd-round pick, but I'd like to see the scouting reports that caused the guy to drop so far in a very weak draft. He proved he can at least compete against NBA talent as a 19 year-old, and Aaron Brooks and Rajon Rondo have shown how important having quick guards in the age of no hand-checking can be in a half-court offense.

Here are some of the scouting reports that may have led to him falling

nbadraft.net

Weaknesses: Lack of size and strength ... Not a true PG at this point as he is better at scoring than running a team ... Relies too much on his outside shot and can be a very inconsistent shooter .338 3PT% ... Takes too many contested and wild shots ... Questionable decision maker. Has to do a better job of attacking the rim and finishing under pressure ... Avoids contact under the basket ...


Draft express

teams we spoke to still expressed some doubt regarding his point guard skills, which is something he could still stand to work on. He posted 3 assists compared with 4 turnovers in the evening game, seeming to be hunting shots quite a bit, and didn’t look all that comfortable getting others involved.

• Patrick Mills had the lowest logged shooting percentage at 36%, and the fact that he took 3.3 contested looks from the outside per game (1st) may have played a role in that. All the three pointers Mills attempted certainly didn’t help his efficiency on the college level. For as fast as Mills is, he got to the rim at an average rate and really struggled to convert once there. He also ranked last for the percentage of possessions he was fouled on—just 5%.


He is also only 5' 11.25" in socks.

Not to compare them too much, but B-rex while taller, still has a longer wingspan, a much better reach and a better sprint time.


There are many possitives as well, but you were looking for reasons he might have slipped that far.

 

[Ed O]

Ya missed the point there, lawyer man. I was focused on his ability as a scorer -- that was the issue. You left out the part of my post where I said other attributes are more dissable and may have caused him to slide (most likely the possiblity he's a two guard stuck in a PG's body.)

So you think that, in spite of his bad stats and his 55th overall draft position, NBA scouts and decisionmakers think he's a good shooter?

OK. It doesn't make sense to me, but believe what you will.

Ed O.

 

[mobes23]

So you think that, in spite of his bad stats and his 55th overall draft position, NBA scouts and decisionmakers think he's a good shooter?

OK. It doesn't make sense to me, but believe what you will.

Ed O.

I think he got drafted because he CAN score. I think he didn't get drafted higher because he's too short to play the two and that's the position perceived to be the best match to his abilities. KP is likely hoping/expecting that he can develop his passing & leadership to become a PG, while also thinking that Roy's ability to lead the team from the SG slot will cover up his deficiencies in the meantime.

Edit: MM's above post that has a couple scouting reports seems pretty fair. I'm not saying Mills walks on water, but the guy can score. He was a ton of fun to watch in college for that reason. Whether it translates to the NBA remains to be seen. Whether he develops his PG skills also remains to be seen.

 

[PapaG]

Here are some of the scouting reports that may have led to him falling

nbadraft.net

Weaknesses: Lack of size and strength ... Not a true PG at this point as he is better at scoring than running a team ... Relies too much on his outside shot and can be a very inconsistent shooter .338 3PT% ... Takes too many contested and wild shots ... Questionable decision maker. Has to do a better job of attacking the rim and finishing under pressure ... Avoids contact under the basket ...


Draft express

teams we spoke to still expressed some doubt regarding his point guard skills, which is something he could still stand to work on. He posted 3 assists compared with 4 turnovers in the evening game, seeming to be hunting shots quite a bit, and didn’t look all that comfortable getting others involved.

• Patrick Mills had the lowest logged shooting percentage at 36%, and the fact that he took 3.3 contested looks from the outside per game (1st) may have played a role in that. All the three pointers Mills attempted certainly didn’t help his efficiency on the college level. For as fast as Mills is, he got to the rim at an average rate and really struggled to convert once there. He also ranked last for the percentage of possessions he was fouled on—just 5%.


He is also only 5' 11.25" in socks.

Not to compare them too much, but B-rex while taller, still has a longer wingspan, a much better reach and a better sprint time.


There are many possitives as well, but you were looking for reasons he might have slipped that far.

Thanks for the info. I'm surprised to see his rim rate, but I wonder if part of that is because St. Mary's was zoned quite often in order to stop Mills' penetration. His size definitely is a negative, but Aaron Brooks and Mike Conley are of similar size. If Mills shows anything at all this summer or in camp, I hope the Blazers hold on to him for the season. Frye is likely gone, Sergio is gone, Raef is gone, Ruffin is likely gone, and Shav looks like he'll be gone as well. Assuming a FA signing or a trade that exports players, there are at least 5 roster spots open for next season. Cunningham and Pendergraph will make the roster and there will be a FA signing, so that leaves a minimum of two spots. I'd like to see Mills get one of those spots.

 

[Ed O]

I think he got drafted because he CAN score. I think he didn't get drafted higher because he's too short to play the two and that's the position perceived to be the best match to his abilities. KP is likely hoping/expecting that he can develop his passing & leadership to become a PG, while also thinking that Roy's ability to lead the team from the SG slot will cover up his deficiencies in the meantime.

Edit: MM's above post that has a couple scouting reports seems pretty fair. I'm not saying Mills walks on water, but the guy can score. He was a ton of fun to watch in college for that reason. Whether it translates to the NBA remains to be seen. Whether he develops his PG skills also remains to be seen.

There's a difference between being able to "score" and "shoot".

Stats indicate he can not do the latter very well, and that's the primary point I intended to address with my response.

Ed O.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Thanks for the info. I'm surprised to see his rim rate, but I wonder if part of that is because St. Mary's was zoned quite often in order to stop Mills' penetration. His size definitely is a negative, but Aaron Brooks and Mike Conley are of similar size. If Mills shows anything at all this summer or in camp, I hope the Blazers hold on to him for the season. Sergio is gone, Raef is gone, Ruffin is likely gone, and Shav looks like he'll be gone as well. Assuming a FA signing or a trade that exports players, there are at least 4 roster spots open for next season. Cunningham and Pendergraph will make the roster and there will be a FA signing, so that leaves a minimum of one spot. I'd like to see Mills get that spot.

I hope he gets a spot also because that means Bayless is all but guaranteed to be our back up PG.

Conley and Brooks are similar in height, but Conley has a 6'6" wingspan, and Brooks is 6'4". Mills' is 6'2". Bayless by the way, since I never posted it is 6' 3.5"

 

[Ed O]

Thanks for the info. I'm surprised to see his rim rate, but I wonder if part of that is because St. Mary's was zoned quite often in order to stop Mills' penetration.

I hope so. I wonder if he's a poor man's version of Damon Stoudamire...

*shiver*

Ed O.

 

[PapaG]

I hope so. I wonder if he's a poor man's version of Damon Stoudamire...

*shiver*

Ed O.

I think Mills is quicker than Damon off the dribble and is a better defender (and a lesser player in every other category), but I wouldn't mind a poor man's Damon as the 10th man. Now, when that player is a max contract player, well, we all know how that worked out.

 

[Mediocre Man]

I think Mills is quicker than Damon off the dribble and is a better defender (and a lesser player in every other category), but I wouldn't mind a poor man's Damon as the 10th man. Now, when that player is a max contract player, well, we all know how that worked out.

Yeah, that's a scary thought, but it's a lot easier thinking that player is your 10th man rather than one of your highest paid players


If he chooses number 3, or mentions Damon as a role model in any interview I want him waived immediately

 

[Boob-No-More]

Ya missed the point there, lawyer man. I was focused on his ability as a scorer -- that was the issue. You left out the part of my post where I said other attributes are more dissable and may have caused him to slide (most likely the possiblity he's a two guard stuck in a PG's body.)

There's the rub. This thread started with a link that included the following quote:

"One report suggested that Mills needed seasoning and might head "overseas" for a year or two. Nonsense. He's a better point guard than Steve Blake or Jerryd Bayless, and will have proved that by the end of training camp. Brandon Roy just found his ideal backcourt partner"

We are also hearing that we drafted a PG - we didn't. We drafted a SG in an undersized PG's body (as in Mills would be undersized if he was playing PG - as a SG, he's severly undersized).

He's not a good distributor and he's not a good decision maker (when in doubt, he shoots, no matter where he is and no matter how tightly he's guarded). He's simply does not have PG skills.

As a severly undersized SG, he can score (in college), but he's very streaky, shoots a low percentage and takes way too many ill advised shots. There have always been guys who were prolific, but inefficient scores at a lower level who couldn't cut it in the NBA due to limitations in their games. Freeman Williams was an absolutely amazing college scorer in college, but didn't do so great in the NBA - ditto for Adam Morrison. And, it's not like Mills averaged 30 PPG in college. He averaged 18.4 PPG as the number one option on a team playing in a weak conference. While he was able to get his shot off at will in college, will he ba able to do the same in the NBA? That's a huge question, and guys who are severly undersized for their positions usually struggle in the NBA.

I dont' want the guy to fail, but I'm very skeptical that he will have success at the next level. He doesn't have PG skills, and he doesn't have SG size. There have been other undersized volume scorers that have succeeded in the NBA (Allen Iverson, Damon Stoudamire, etc.), but they tend to be few and far between - and they are usually guys who can both score and distribute.

I also find the expectations for Mills unreasonable. He was a 55th pick, yet he has been proclaimed "a better point guard than Steve Blake or Jerryd Bayless". And, when I point out his limitations, the people that are gushing over Mills tell me, "relax, it's not like he was a lottery pick". Well, OK, somebody's expectations are severely out of whack. If Mills is "a better point guard than Steve Blake or Jerryd Bayless", he should have been a lottery pick, but he wasn't he was picked 55th and will be lucky to make the team. I'll be happy for him if he does, but if he doesn't, I won't be disappointed. There were reasons, after all, that he slipped to 55th.

BNM

 

[PapaG]

There's the rub. This thread started with a link that included the following quote:

"One report suggested that Mills needed seasoning and might head "overseas" for a year or two. Nonsense. He's a better point guard than Steve Blake or Jerryd Bayless, and will have proved that by the end of training camp. Brandon Roy just found his ideal backcourt partner"

We are also hearing that we drafted a PG - we didn't. We drafted a SG in an undersized PG's body (as in Mills would be undersized if he was playing PG - as a SG, he's severly undersized).

He's not a good distributor and he's not a good decision maker (when in doubt, he shoots, no matter where he is and no matter how tightly he's guarded). He's simply does not have PG skills.

As a severly undersized SG, he can score (in college), but he's very streaky, shoots a low percentage and takes way too many ill advised shots. There have always been guys who were prolific, but inefficient scores at a lower level who couldn't cut it in the NBA due to limitations in their games. Freeman Williams was an absolutely amazing college scorer in college, but didn't do so great in the NBA - ditto for Adam Morrison. And, it's not like Mills averaged 30 PPG in college. He averaged 18.4 PPG as the number one option on a team playing in a weak conference. While he was able to get his shot off at will in college, will he ba able to do the same in the NBA? That's a huge question, and guys who are severly undersized for their positions usually struggle in the NBA.

I dont' want the guy to fail, but I'm very skeptical that he will have success at the next level. He doesn't have PG skills, and he doesn't have SG size. There have been other undersized volume scorers that have succeeded in the NBA (Allen Iverson, Damon Stoudamire, etc.), but they tend to be few and far between - and they are usually guys who can both score and distribute.

I also find the expectations for Mills unreasonable. He was a 55th pick, yet he has been proclaimed "a better point guard than Steve Blake or Jerryd Bayless". And, when I point out his limitations, the people that are gushing over Mills tell me, "relax, it's not like he was a lottery pick". Well, OK, somebody's expectations are severely out of whack. If Mills is "a better point guard than Steve Blake or Jerryd Bayless", he should have been a lottery pick, but he wasn't he was picked 55th and will be lucky to make the team. I'll be happy for him if he does, but if he doesn't, I won't be disappointed. There were reasons, after all, that he slipped to 55th.

BNM

I guess I don't understand why the biased opinion of a Bay Area writer matters to the point of repeating it four times in a thread. If anyone on this board believes Mills is better right now than Blake or Bayless, I must have missed their post. The discussion has pretty much morphed into whether or not Mills will earn a roster spot and why he dropped in the draft, not him supplanting Blake/Bayless in the rotation. You are (at length) arguing a point that no one here is making.

 

[mobes23]

PapaG has it correct from my standpoint. We'll see how Mills pans out, but right now he's so clearly behind Blake and Bayless on the depth chart that it's not even worth thinking about. That said, with the players we have signed as of today (obviously, we don't know what trades/FA signings will go down), I would hope he'd be on the roster when the season starts. Having seen him play several times, I think he's got NBA level scoring ability (despite lackluster FG% cited above.) Whether he has passing & defensive skills to make give him minutes at the point remains to be seen.

 

[Crimson the Cat]

Another article http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/26/2610063.htm