Pelton: The Point Guards

[Crimson the Cat]

I like Kevin Pelton. He does a good job of breaking things down. He came out with his rankings for free agent Point Guards.

Here's what he said about the vets:

THE VETERAN STARS

Player Tm T Age Win% WARP TS% Reb% Pass BS%

Andre Miller PHI U 33.1 0.575 9.9 0.548 7.4 4.30 2.3
Jason Kidd DAL U 36.1 0.614 11.9 0.550 9.9 11.23 3.8
Mike Bibby ATL U 30.9 0.528 6.4 0.544 5.9 3.14 2.2
For teams looking to win now, there are three options on the market. Because of his age, I have Miller as the best of the group, though he's also probably the least likely to leave his current team. While unspectacular in any one area (save throwing alley-oops), Miller has such a strong game across the board (save shooting from distance) that he was the league's eighth most valuable point guard in terms of WARP last season.

Kidd is one of the more interesting players out there because of his age and ability. His supposed decline has been somewhat overstated, as Kidd has developed into a competent long-range shooter late in his career and still does a pretty good job defending shooting guards (quicker point guards are another story, which is why Kidd might be a good fit alongside an undersized scorer). Next year, Kidd could make the difference for some team. The question is how much of a hit they'll have to take on the back end of his contract.

I'm much more dubious about Bibby, who enjoyed a bounceback season at age 30 after a rough finish to his time in Sacramento. The difference can be almost entirely attributed to Bibby's shooting, especially beyond the three-point line. If that slips, Bibby will lose a lot of his value, as he has become a defensive liability.

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=714

 

[Minstrel]

That analysis pretty much fits my thoughts...Miller is the clear-cut best of the three, Kidd is interesting but probably doesn't have much left and can't defend point guards, Bibby is a terrible idea.

 

[LittleAlex]

That analysis pretty much fits my thoughts...Miller is the clear-cut best of the three, Kidd is interesting but probably doesn't have much left and can't defend point guards, Bibby is a terrible idea.

If KP signs Bibby I will have a very hard time staying positive about next season.

Bibby is like an older, slower Blake.

If there is any justice in the world, Bibby will be the MVP of the Turkish Basketball Assoc. next year, not a Blazer.

 

[Minstrel]

If KP signs Bibby I will have a very hard time staying positive about next season.

It would be a very disappointing signing, yes.

 

[number 10]

Why not just get Sessions? Check out the comparable players... dude is a very good bet to explode. Imagine this: you sign Hedo, then tell Sessions that he'd be the starting PG on this team. I think he'd have a hard time staying in Milwaukee.

THE PROMISING YOUNGSTER

Player Tm T Age Win% WARP TS% Reb% Pass BS%
Ramon Sessions MIL R 23.0 0.573 7.1 0.525 7.5 6.44 2.2

The veteran point guards on the market might be preferable to Sessions next year. Over the following three or four? Sessions, who just turned 23, figures to be far more valuable. He followed up a surprising breakout late in his rookie season with a strong campaign split between starting and coming off the bench. Sessions is effective as both a scorer and a passer, and his ability to get to the free-throw line (14 percent of his possessions, more than any other free-agent point guard) bodes well for the future. His five most similar players by age: Kenny Anderson, Devin Harris, Tony Parker, Deron Williams and Terrell Brandon. If the Bucks are unwilling to match due to money concerns, somebody is going to get a starting point guard for the next decade or so.

 

[Minstrel]

Why not just get Sessions? Check out the comparable players... dude is a very good bet to explode. Imagine this: you sign Hedo, then tell Sessions that he'd be the starting PG on this team. I think he'd have a hard time staying in Milwaukee.

I'd love that, but since he's restricted, he'd have to force his way out of Milwaukee...tell them to trade him because he'll never re-sign with them. That's probably not a step he'd take.

 

[number 10]

I'd love that, but since he's restricted, he'd have to force his way out of Milwaukee...tell them to trade him because he'll never re-sign with them. That's probably not a step he'd take.

I've been reading a Bucks' forum and they don't sound 100% certain that Sessions will be coming back. I think if the money is the same, he'd take a playoff team (Portland or Atlanta, his offseason home) over Milwaukee. Also, he might not have the best relationship with Skiles, who is apparently a big fan of Jennings. In a sign and trade, I think the Bucks would have a hard time turning down Outlaw + Bayless for Sessions.

 

[andalusian]

I've been reading a Bucks' forum and they don't sound 100% certain that Sessions will be coming back. I think if the money is the same, he'd take a playoff team (Portland or Atlanta, his offseason home) over Milwaukee. Also, he might not have the best relationship with Skiles, who is apparently a big fan of Jennings. In a sign and trade, I think the Bucks would have a hard time turning down Outlaw + Bayless for Sessions.

He is an RFA - it is out of his hands. If the Bucks insist on matching - he is at their mercy.