POR needs to REBUILD not reload

[Rhal]

The draft over rebuild process is really like a poker hand. You have the trading for known players (KK) vs players that there is no guarantee they will produce but there is still a shot (AK). 3/4th of the time the known commodity wins but there is always a chance that ace hits and your all-star appears from your picks. Chances of them becoming a superstar are more like AA vs AK.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

The draft over rebuild process is really like a poker hand. You have the trading for known players (KK) vs players that there is no guarantee they will produce but there is still a shot (AK). 3/4th of the time the known commodity wins but there is always a chance that ace hits and your all-star appears from your picks. Chances of them becoming a superstar are more like AA vs AK.

Only hits with top 3 pick. otherwise, we have 10 teams looking to be title contenders with this draft? Please. 2 players out of this will probably be allstars within the next 3-4 years.

 

[Blaze01]

Well, not than Igoudala.

Iguodala is fools gold...His game is already deteriorating at age 28...a weak #3 option at best...I wouldn't trade a chance at a #1 or #2 option for a player like him...

 

[Blaze01]

No disagreement that the draft is still loaded after the top 5 are gone. Those picks are valuable and can net us an allstar or fringe all-stars to play with LA or great talent to make us look like a marquee place for a top FA to come too.

Again, I would love to see some realistic names...b\c the ones being bantered about are less than impressive...

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

6th and 11th player in the draft is rarely a #1 or #2 option.

 

[Rhal]

Only hits with top 3 pick. otherwise, we have 10 teams looking to be title contenders with this draft? Please. 2 players out of this will probably be allstars within the next 3-4 years.

I'm all for trading the picks for the right price, esp when they hold as much value as they do.

 

[RoyToy]

I'd say debateable...Matthews has better offensive stats for sure, Sefolosha is regarded as a top defender...For PKC with Westbrook\Durant out on the floor they probably value the defense of Sefolosha...but again this all moot anyway, as the reality of the situation is that Harden plays the majority of the minutes and Matthews wouldn't be digging into his minutes at all....

Honestly I am not a huge fan of either one...That is why I wouldn't mind seeing POR trade Matthews away for mid 1st pick....He is not a key player that you absolutely must have (or would be hard to acquire a player of his type) on a championship team...Get the key pieces first and then worry about players like Wes Matthews after that...

OKC could use another scoring threat in the starting lineup and Matthews couldn't be a more perfect fit.

And Matthews and Harden could easily play at the same time. The reason Sefolosha's minutes get cut is because he's so anemic offensively.

Honestly, think it's crazy you think it's even debatable.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

Here are the past few years of 6 and 11 picks:

2000: DeMarr Johnson, Jerome Moiso
2001: Shane Battier, Kedrick Brown
2002: DaJuan Wagner, Jared Jeffries
2003: Chris Kaman, Mickael Pietrus
2004: Shaun Livingston, Andris Biedrins
2005: Martell Webster, Fran Vazquez
2006: Brandon Roy, JJ Redick
2007: Yi Jianlian, Acie Law
2008: Danilo Gallinari, Jerryd Bayless
2009: Jonny Flynn, Terrence Williams
2010: Ekpe Udoh, Cole Aldrich
2011: Jan Vesley, Klay Thompson

Summary: Keeping the draft picks is not the smart choice.

 

[Rhal]

Again, I would love to see some realistic names...b\c the ones being bantered about are less than impressive...

The three that seem to constantly be talked about, Iggy/Rondo/Smith

 

[Blaze01]

Only hits with top 3 pick. otherwise, we have 10 teams looking to be title contenders with this draft? Please. 2 players out of this will probably be allstars within the next 3-4 years.

at least, and probably more than that that will be borderline all star...but certainly top "core 3" on a team worthy....

This is a strong draft...There is a reason why teams have been very reluctant to part with thier picks....

It will require strong scouting, something POR has not shown themselves capable of recently....and yes there are 3-4 picks who there is broader consensus on (and 1 who stands alone) and after that a group of 10-15 players or so where the real scouting will pay off b\c in that group there will be some #1-#3 caliber type players available....That is why scouts are saying a #6 pick may not have any more value per say than a #14 pick b\c the player taken there could easily be better....but irregardless of all that the POINT is that there will be top level talent at #6 and #11 for POR to potentially take, they just have to pick the right guys....

So you keep the picks and take the chance and hope your scouts have correctly identified those players....b\c as I have said repeatedly even if you only hit on ONE of those picks the team will be markedly better for it, than trading both for mid tier established players...

 

[julius]

Here are the past few years of 6 and 11 picks:

2000: DeMarr Johnson, Jerome Moiso
2001: Shane Battier, Kedrick Brown
2002: DaJuan Wagner, Jared Jeffries
2003: Chris Kaman, Mickael Pietrus
2004: Shaun Livingston, Andris Biedrins
2005: Martell Webster, Fran Vazquez
2006: Brandon Roy, JJ Redick
2007: Yi Jianlian, Acie Law
2008: Danilo Gallinari, Jerryd Bayless
2009: Jonny Flynn, Terrence Williams
2010: Ekpe Udoh, Cole Aldrich
2011: Jan Vesley, Klay Thompson

Summary: Keeping the draft picks is not the smart choice.

I would like to see the players passed over that ended up being good picks. Because of those picks, only Brandon Roy and Gallinari were solid at 6.

Of course, it also depends on the DEPTH of the draft. Kaman wasn't a bad pick in 03 (a deep draft, iirc), but the 07 draft was a "deep" one and Yi amounted to nothing.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

at least, and probably more than that that will be borderline all star...but certainly top "core 3" on a team worthy....

This is a strong draft...There is a reason why teams have been very reluctant to part with thier picks....

It will require strong scouting, something POR has not shown themselves capable of recently....and yes there are 3-4 picks who there is broader consensus on (and 1 who stands alone) and after that a group of 10-15 players or so where the real scouting will pay off b\c in that group there will be some #1-#3 caliber type players available....That is why scouts are saying a #6 pick may not have any more value per say than a #14 pick b\c the player taken there could easily be better....but irregardless of all that the POINT is that there will be top level talent at #6 and #11 for POR to potentially take, they just have to pick the right guys....

So you keep the picks and take the chance and hope your scouts have correctly identified those players....b\c as I have said repeatedly even if you only hit on ONE of those picks the team will be markedly better for it, than trading both for mid tier established players...

I did 10 year historical #6 and #10 draft picks. 1 all-star the entire 10 years and that was Brandon Roy. No one even close to being an allstar. History says that you are severely overrating the value of these picks.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

I would like to see the players passed over that ended up being good picks. Because of those picks, only Brandon Roy and Gallinari were solid at 6.

Of course, it also depends on the DEPTH of the draft. Kaman wasn't a bad pick in 03 (a deep draft, iirc), but the 07 draft was a "deep" one and Yi amounted to nothing.

that's why I did a 10 year sample, which is a good sample size showing that over time, it really is irrelevant of the depth of the draft. They aren't generally game changers at these positions. If they are, its more of a freak occurrence more than anything.

Top 3 is the only place where its at.

 

[julius]

that's why I did a 10 year sample, which is a good sample size showing that over time, it really is irrelevant of the depth of the draft. They aren't generally game changers at these positions. If they are, its more of a freak occurrence more than anything.

Top 3 is the only place where its at.

We gotta pray for a top 3 pick.

Also, you didn't do a 10 year sample. you did 12 years.

 

[Blaze01]

I did 10 year historical #6 and #10 draft picks. 1 all-star the entire 10 years and that was Brandon Roy. No one even close to being an allstar. History says that you are severely overrating the value of these picks.

Yeah and you cherry picked and skipped all of the players in b\t the #6 and #10 picks, or picks just past #10 (like in the teens)

guys like: Joe Johnson, Amare Stoudamire, Nene, Luol Deng, Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, Andrew Bynum, Danny Granger, Rudy Gay, Joakim Noah, Eric gordon, Brook Lopez, Stephon Curry, Demar Derozan, Brandon jennings, Jrue Holiday, Ty Lawson.....

A few All-Stars there I think....

A lot of good (#2-#3 type) players....

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

Yeah and you cherry picked and skipped all of the player in b\t the #6 and #11 picks, or picks just past #11 (like in the teens)

guys like: Joe Johnson, Amare Stoudamire, Nene, Luol Deng, Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, Andrew Bynum, Danny Granger, Rudy Gay, Joakim Noah, Eric gordon, Brook Lopez, Stephon Curry, Demar Derozan, Brandon jennings, Jrue Holiday, Ty Lawson.....

I didn't cherry pick. #6 and #11, which are our likely picks and the ones you can think we can find the "diamond in the rough". Need some consistency, which I have listed.
However, history shows that its not likely.

But if you want to include every draft pick from #6 and beyond for 12 years, you're going to find more crap than stars. Like I said, finding a star outside of the top 3 picks is more of an outlier than anything. Its a bad strategy to bank your future on picking up players outside the top 3-4 picks in the draft.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

I'm guessing the 80/20 principle works here.

Top 3 picks: 80% of the time you will get a star or useful player that will help you win. 20% of the time you will get crap.
Anything after that: 20% of the time you will get a star or useful player that will help you win. 80% of the time you will get crap.

 

[RedHotRollin]

I'm all for a 'quick' rebuild over a retool. And with the base of talent you have in place, I think you can do it quickly.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

I'm all for a 'quick' rebuild over a retool. And with the base of talent you have in place, I think you can do it quickly.

History has shown that you need to do it quickly.

 

[RedHotRollin]

History has shown that you need to do it quickly.

Take LA and one of your picks and move it for this years number one. No better to player to build your team around than a big man.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

Take LA and one of your picks and move it for this years number one. No better to player to build your team around than a big man.

That is just dumb IMO. Aldridge is one of the best PFs in the league, top 3 or 4 and still young and on a reasonable contract. You only trade him for a star who is currently better than him.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

That's something that a team looking to win a ring would do. Say the Nets get the #1 pick in the draft. Then trade that pick for Aldridge to go with Deron Williams. Blammo, contender.

then Portland gets stuck in permanent rebuild mode...building through the luck of ping pong balls.

 

[RedHotRollin]

That is just dumb IMO. Aldridge is one of the best PFs in the league, top 3 or 4 and still young and on a reasonable contract. You only trade him for a star who is currently better than him.

It's only dumb if you don't have a good idea where the dude going number one is going with his career. If you see him as a Marcus Camby in three or four years, yes it's dumb. If you see him closer to Dwight Howard. I can't see where that would be dumb.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

It's only dumb if you don't have a good idea where the dude going number one is going with his career. If you see him as a Marcus Camby in three or four years, yes it's dumb. If you see him closer to Dwight Howard. I can't see where that would be dumb.

No, its just dumb regardless. You don't trade a guy entering his prime who you can build around, with some good role players already on the team while you have tons of cap space and draft picks to complete the team.....for a draft pick.

"Hey, we have a good centerpiece, fuck it, lets just trade him and start over and build over the next 5 years". You're missing the entire point here. We have the assets and flexibility to make a major move THIS offseason. Trading LaMarcus Aldridge is possibly the dumbest move out of everything, all things considered.

 

[RedHotRollin]

No, its just dumb regardless. You don't trade a guy entering his prime who you can build around, with some good role players already on the team while you have tons of cap space and draft picks to complete the team.....for a draft pick.

"Hey, we have a good centerpiece, fuck it, lets just trade him and start over and build over the next 5 years". You're missing the entire point here. We have the assets and flexibility to make a major move THIS offseason. Trading LaMarcus Aldridge is possibly the dumbest move out of everything, all things considered.

LA ain't leading you anywere. If you have the gut feeling that Anthony Davis is closer to Dwight Howard. That has a better shot of winning you a title than a team lead by LA.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

LA ain't leading you anywere. If you have the gut feeling that Anthony Davis is closer to Dwight Howard. That has a better shot of winning you a title than a team lead by LA.

So...say the Nets gets the #1 pick, then you team Aldridge and Deron Williams in brooklyn. IMO, they are contenders right away. Because that's the Portland "pipedream".

There's also a very good chance that Anthony Davis doesn't ever get better than Aldridge. I just think its monumentally stupid to trade him when you have this much immediate cap room, current talent on the team and tradable assets.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

Let me say that again.

All-star player in his early prime.
Decent role players
Lots of free cap space
Draft picks that can be used as trade assets or to get more role players

You don't take all of this and say "fuck it" lets go draft Anthony Davis and build through the draft. It'll take 5 years to do so. Then what, you trade him again for the lure of having the #1 pick again? Some people are just entranced by having high draft picks year after year. Sure, chances are you will get talent but if you already have the talent, stop thinking about it.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

LA's hip surgery couldn't come at a worse time.

We wouldn't get close to what his value should be.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

LA's hip surgery couldn't come at a worse time.

We wouldn't get close to what his value should be.

unless it gets us back a top 5 player in the league...not worth it.

 

[LameR]

You really think he is the 4th or 5th option...a starter...on OKC? Seriously? Or that he would average 12-15ppg on a good playoff team? Come on now...He is a bench player...probably not the 1st guy off the bench (6th man) but among the next 2-3 players off the bench....So yes, a 6th-8th guy.

Dude freaking Thabo Sefolosha, Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka are on OKC as starters. You trying to tell me they're "better options" on offense than Wes? Yeah, Harden comes off of the bench but is realistically their number 3 (sometimes higher) guy. So there are 3 guys on OKC who are clearly better offensive options than Wes. Does that mean he'd be the 4th best player? Not necessarily, because those 3 starters I mentioned all play important ROLES within their team, it just doesn't involve scoring. Wes is easily a better offensive player than those guys, but does he fill a role like they do? That's a lot more debatable, and I'd say no given how well OKC works together. But that doesn't negate the fact that on their team, Wes wouldn't be 6th-8th option on that team. That's just ridiculous.