POR vs GSW - Blazers Come Up Empty

[Boob-No-More]

On a rainy Sunday evening in Portland, in spite of ice cold shooting against the high scoring Golden State Warriors, the home team was in the lead and had the ball with 14.5 seconds on the clock. This is the kind of game you're supposed to win; the kind of game where you control your own destiny - especially when you are playing at home. For anyone who watched those last 14.5 seconds, you already know the Blazers came up empty when it mattered the most. Three consecutive empty possessions without a single shot attempt, outscored 6-0 over those last 14.5 seconds, the Blazers choked and coughed it up like a giant hairball.

When you shoot the ball as poorly as the Blazers did last night (.402 FG%, .259 3FG%, .643 FT%) the way you win is crashing the offensive boards and taking care of the ball. The Blazers did the former, big time, but failed at the latter, big time. With a 17-7 advantage on the offensive glass, the Blazers put themselves in position to steal a win at home. It would have been an ugly win, but a win none-the-less. Instead, thanks to those three consecutive turnovers, they turned it into an ugly loss.

Make no mistake, the Golden State Warriors have a swarming defense that forces a lot of turnovers (24 per game after the first two games), but until last night, until the second half, especially the 4th quarter, the Blazers had been doing a great job of protecting the ball. They had averaged just 10 turnovers per game over their first two games and had just 6 turnovers at halftime of this game. Things started getting a little sloppy in the 3rd quarter last night, but thanks to hard work on the offensive glass and a cold shooting quarter by the Warriors, the Blazers entered the final quarter tied at 68. With LaMarcus Aldridge heating up, the Blazers clung to a 1-point lead, but 8 turnovers in the 4th quarter, including 3 huge miscues in the last 14.5 seconds did the Blazers in. You simply can't cough up the ball 3 times in the waning seconds against a quality team like the Warriors and expect to win.

So, is this a one time anomaly, or part of a trend? It remains to be seen, but in spite of Damian Lillard's 0.9 second heroics in Game 6 against Houston, the Blazers struggles to close out tight games goes back to the second half of last season. During Terry Stotts first season and a half in Portland, the Blazers had multiple game winning shots from Lillard, Aldridge, Batum and Matthews. By involving multiple players, the opposition never knew who to key on. That unpredictability, combined with generous ball movement, kept the defense guessing and usually led to a wide open shot for someone as opposing defenses keyed on the ball.

Has this team become too reliant on Lillard for last second game winning heroics? Assuming they even manage to get the ball in bounds, something they couldn't do last night, their late game play calling has become far too isolation heavy - a noted fault of Stotts' predecessor. Worse still, do Lillard's teammates expect him to always be the one taking the last shot? The Blazers offense, under Stotts, is at it's best when all five players are involved with lots of player movement and lots of ball movement. Why do they go away from that with the game on the line? It's like playing the prevent defense in football - the one that prevents you from winning. Play to your strengths. Spread the floor and get all five layers involved. Set some picks, find the open man and make the extra pass. Go back to what you do best. Yes, Damian Lillard is a great clutch shooter, but before he can knock down more game winners, you need to be able to get him the ball - something that's tough to do when the opposing defense knows exactly what you want to do. The Blazers need to stop playing hero ball with the game on the line and go back to playing team ball.

Last night was a loss that should have been a win. I hope the coaches and players will watch that last 14.5 seconds several times, dissect it thoroughly and learn from it. They need to understand what went wrong and how to prevent it from happening again. The Western Conference is more competitive than ever this season. Yes, it's only early November, but giving away games you should win will come back and haunt you come April. Don't just "put this one behind you", don't just use it for motivation, learn from it and fix your mistakes before they become your habits.

BNM

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Great writeup Mr More! It was a pleasure to sit next to you on press row last night.

 

[BBert]

Nice work. As usual. I hope this is only the first of many press row write ups from you.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Great writeup Mr More! It was a pleasure to sit next to you on press row last night.

And thanks to you for the press pass. I would have preferred to cover a win in my first assignment, but it was still a fun experience.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

One additional observation about the final seconds of last night's game:

I didn't like Stotts' offensive/defensive swapping of Blake and Lopez. I'm not trying to pin this loss on Steve Blake, and I get why you want Lopez in for defense and rebounding, but this team's strength is their starting 5. Why don't you want your best players in the game when the game is on the line? I also understand the "conventional wisdom" behind having Blake on the floor (extra ball handler against the defensive pressure, good FT shooter, etc.), but going small is playing to your opponents strength. With Blake in the line up, it allowed the Warriors to have an extra set of quick hands and feet swarming the ball and forcing turnovers, and it worked perfectly - for Golden State.

If we go with Lopez on offense (as well as defense), we force Golden State to go big and play to our strength, not theirs. Yes, Andrew Bogut does a good job of protecting the paint and clogging up the middle - out to 10 feet. Since we never even got the ball within 10 feet of the basket on those critical 3 possessions, Bogut's presence would have been negated. In fact, it would have worked to our advantage. The slow footed Bogut is NOT going to chase Lopez out 17 feet from the basket. So, when you're having trouble inbounding the ball, or your guard gets trapped by the double team, send Lopez to the elbow and get him the ball. He will be wide open. Bogut isn't going to deny him the ball that far from the basket.

We are blessed to have a big man (two actually, counting Kaman) who has good hands, is a smart player, a good passer and best of all a good free throw shooter. That is an advantage we need to use when the game is on the line. I'm not saying Lopez should be taking the last shot, but use him as a safety valve. Force your opponent to go big and play to your strength. With the lead and the ball, all we had to do was hold onto the ball, run the clock down and wait for Golden State to foul for possession. And, if they happen to foul Lopez, he's an excellent FT shooter (.818 last season - compared to Blake at .767). We aren't going to see other teams employ a Hack-a-Fro strategy any time soon. Best (and most likely) case, they foul Lopez and he hits 2 of 2 and we have a 3-point lead. Worst case, Lopez goes 1-2 and we have a 2-point lead with clock winding down. That turns Klay's game winning shot into a game tying shot, or forces GSW to go for the game winning 3, under duress with the game clock winding down.

In any case, having Lopez as a safety valve and forcing your opponent play to you strength would be much better than what we saw in the closing seconds last night.

BNM

 

[riverman]

Great work! Top notch! repped!