Trade Idea Post and Discuss Trade Ideas for the 2019-20 Season

[Scalma]

I love bogi but he is not worth $20M, no way.

 

[CupWizier]

Based on this, if Portland is $6.3m over we ought to see if we can do two trades with the Bulls:

Ariza -> Felicio (saves $4m this year, but costs $6 for next)

Caleb -> Hutchison ( no salary change. Portland just gets a prospect SF for a non-NBA player).

This would make it close enough that Portland could duck the tax with a small Whiteside trade

Hmmm? Question. Would you trade Hutchinson for Swanigan if Hutchinson was on the Blazers and Swanigan on the Bulls?

 

[illmatic99]

Based on this, if Portland is $6.3m over we ought to see if we can do two trades with the Bulls:

Ariza -> Felicio (saves $4m this year, but costs $6 for next)

Caleb -> Hutchison ( no salary change. Portland just gets a prospect SF for a non-NBA player).

This would make it close enough that Portland could duck the tax with a small Whiteside trade

I really think they were targeting Ariza.

 

[tester551]

Hmmm? Question. Would you trade Hutchinson for Swanigan if Hutchinson was on the Blazers and Swanigan on the Bulls?

It would be a package deal. Ariza + Caleb for Felicio + Hutchison.

Since the CBA doesn't allow Ariza or Caleb to be combined with anyone else, it would have to be done in 2 separate trades.

 

[B-Roy]

I really think they were targeting Ariza.

I don’t understand the thinking. If you asked most owners if they would give two late seconds to save 12 million, I’m sure they would do it.

 

[Scalma]

I don’t understand the thinking. If you asked most owners if they would give two late seconds to save 12 million, I’m sure they would do it.

with that logic they should trade Lillard too, imagine how much money they could save!!

 

[illmatic99]

For our taxpaying team this season, we can take back 125% of the TPE value + 100k. So we can take back 9.1 mil in salary this season. If we manage to somehow sneak under the tax next season, this TPE can take back 175% of the TPE value + 100k, meaning we can take back 12.7 mil in salary then. This isn't trivial.

 

[tester551]

this with one caveat. If there is a FA they really covet, and he actually wants to come here for ~20 million, moves could be made to create that space. But a FA choosing Portland? That’s a funny one.

How do you figure?
The only way to get that much cap space would be to trade a player (like CJ) away. I guess it's possible, but very challenging to get that much cap space.

 

[tester551]

with that logic they should trade Lillard too, imagine how much money they could save!!

False correlation.

Trading Baze & Tolliver & 2nds to save $12M has negligible impacts on the wins.

Trading Dame absolutely impacts the Blazers ability to win games.

 

[B-Roy]

with that logic they should trade Lillard too, imagine how much they could save!!

that’s not what I said at all. Don’t be stupid. I’m sure most teams have an internal valuation on the value of a second rounder and it’s not more than 6 million dollars. And I bet the valuation for ones in the 45-60 range, which is what it should be if portland is projecting themselves to be a playoff team in those years, is even less. Those are regularly traded for cash considerations or less on draft day.

I find it funny that some of the people who want to give up on this season are mad we didn’t spend more on the team this year. Like, what do you want Jody to do?

 

[B-Roy]

How do you figure?
The only way to get that much cap space would be to trade a player (like CJ) away. I guess it's possible, but very challenging to get that much cap space.

hood, hezonja, Trent and their first this year can all be moved if they wanted to. Miami was hard capped this offseason and still managed to get Butler on a max contract.

 

[illmatic99]

I don’t understand the thinking. If you asked most owners if they would give two late seconds to save 12 million, I’m sure they would do it.

I get the savings part, but I get this feeling that they wanted this guy for this season. It's not unfathomable.

Still waiting on protections for those 2nds fwiw.

 

[CupWizier]

It would be a package deal. Ariza + Caleb for Felicio + Hutchison.

Since the CBA doesn't allow Ariza or Caleb to be combined with anyone else, it would have to be done in 2 separate trades.

but why does Chicago want to lose Hutchinson? and why do we want Felicio?

 

[tester551]

For our taxpaying team this season, we can take back 125% of the TPE value + 100k. So we can take back 9.1 mil in salary this season. If we manage to somehow sneak under the tax next season, this TPE can take back 175% of the TPE value + 100k, meaning we can take back 12.7 mil in salary then. This isn't trivial.

Incorrect.

You can only take back the 125% during simultaneous trades (where a player is sent to each team at the same time).

Later in the season, if a team uses the TPE, the max salary they can take back is the TPE amount + 100k (regardless if they are in the tax or not).
http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q87

In a non-simultaneous trade, a team can acquire only up to 100% plus $100,000 of the outgoing salary1 (as opposed to a higher amount in a simultaneous trade).

 

[B-Roy]

I get the savings part, but I get this feeling that they wanted this guy for this season. It's not unfathomable.

Still waiting on protections for those 2nds fwiw.

here is some thought on the second round picks. Since Neil has been here he’s tossed out seconds around like cash, because essentially that’s what they are. He’s not afraid to trade two seconds in a deal for one because he knows they are always gonna be available on draft day.

He traded 4 for T Rob, 2 for Trent. I’m sure there are others I’m forgetting, but overall I agree with his philosophy. Portland has a history of being in the playoffs, so that pick is likely going to be in the 45-60 range. The last guy they drafted in that range who contributed was Layman at 47, and even then it was a ~3 million dollar commitment (his salary over 3 years) for only one year of production. And guess what? They bought that pick from Orlando for 1.2 million dollars. They also had to give a top 55 protected second round pick because of CBA rules. That’s a formality pick that was not even expected to be conveyed but it actually did because the Blazers had a good record! Orlando picked Jaylen Hands at 56 who will probably never play in the league so I think Neil is sleeping fine on that transaction.

Point is, if there’s someone in that 45-60 range who they really want, they can probably get him at draft time. More often than not most of those guys end up going undrafted anyways. This move was two seconds for 12 million dollars, a no brained at the valuation of those picks.

 

[illmatic99]

Incorrect.

You can only take back the 125% during simultaneous trades (where a player is sent to each team at the same time).

Later in the season, if a team uses the TPE, the max salary they can take back is the TPE amount + 100k (regardless if they are in the tax or not).
http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q87

Ah good catch. My mistake.

 

[Scalma]

Trading Dame absolutely impacts the Blazers ability to win games.

So does adding Ariza.

His average VORP the last four seasons is over 2. Neither Harkless nor Aminu have ever hit 2 in their careers, nevermind on average.

 

[oldmangrouch]

So does adding Ariza.

His average VORP the last four seasons is over 2. Neither Harkless nor Aminu have ever hit 2 in their careers, nevermind on average.

True. Who cares? This season is a lost cause and his long-term value is minimal. He was included in the deal to convince the fans that we are still relevant this season. At best, that's pointless.

 

[B-Roy]

In light of the Bazemore deal, I think the team should be looking at moving Whiteside for some contracts that have value beyond this season. I think his play has warranted some value, but likely only to playoff teams with a hole at the center position. To me, that screams Dallas.

Dallas has a plethora of rotation level players on solid long term deals, and an owner that has historically been willing to spend and would likely value Whiteside's bird rights. They also have the ability to match contracts given Courtney Lee's expiring deal. Lee + Kleber + Brokhoff for Whiteside works. I doubt the Mavs would want to trade Kleber though, his deal is amazing. Lee + Powell for Whiteside+Hezonja also works, although I'd push for Finney-Smith, Brunson or at least Jackson in the deal to get another rotation player. These deals would also cut Portland's tax bill by 5-12 million depending on what the deal is.

The other deal that is calling is Whiteside for Aldridge, if no other reason than for SA to do Aldridge a favor. Maybe we would need to add something, but no more than like a future second or something or else it's not worth it.

 

[Scalma]

In light of the Bazemore deal, I think the team should be looking at moving Whiteside for some contracts that have value beyond this season. I think his play has warranted some value, but likely only to playoff teams with a hole at the center position. To me, that screams Dallas.

Dallas has a plethora of rotation level players on solid long term deals, and an owner that has historically been willing to spend and would likely value Whiteside's bird rights. They also have the ability to match contracts given Courtney Lee's expiring deal. Lee + Kleber + Brokhoff for Whiteside works. I doubt the Mavs would want to trade Kleber though, his deal is amazing. Lee + Powell for Whiteside+Hezonja also works, although I'd push for Finney-Smith, Brunson or at least Jackson in the deal to get another rotation player. These deals would also cut Portland's tax bill by 5-12 million depending on what the deal is.

The other deal that is calling is Whiteside for Aldridge, if no other reason than for SA to do Aldridge a favor. Maybe we would need to add something, but no more than like a future second or something or else it's not worth it.

Aldridge seems more like a summer move, I doubt the spurs would dump him in the middle of a playoff race. They don’t usually make moves during the season as it is.

If Otto is available, Portland should try and get him using Whitesides expiring.

 

[hoopsjock]

I read that Ariza could bring back about $17M after his option is picked up. Portland doesn’t project to have any other big expirings, while guys like Blake, Aldridge, Porter, and Love could all be available. If Olshey can swing a similar deal with Whiteside, getting a sizable short term contract in return, he’d set himself up to make a move involving one of those players, all while keeping the current squad competitive.

This is why I've been so adamant about acquiring salary for next year.

 

[Scalma]

This is why I've been so adamant about acquiring salary for next year.

just noticed that Otto Porter has a player option for next season. How sure are we he doesn’t opt out? I think Hayward is more likely to opt out just because he’s been healthy and productive, while Porter has been injured, but what if Porter comes here and plays well the second half of the season? Could we sign him, would we have his bird rights or how does that work with opt outs?

 

[hoopsjock]

just noticed that Otto Porter has a player option for next season. How sure are we he doesn’t opt out? I think Hayward is more likely to opt out just because he’s been healthy and productive, while Porter has been injured, but what if Porter comes here and plays well the second half of the season? Could we sign him, would we have his bird rights or how does that work with opt outs?

Yes, we'd have full bird rights. I can't imagine Porter getting close to that in free agency given his injuries this year so I'm pretty confident he'd accept. Mayyyybe something like Harrison Barnes did last year where he opted out of a similar contract and then signed a 4 year deal for less money per year. Not a lot of teams have cap space and the teams that do (like Atlanta) probably wouldn't offer him a big contract.

 

[Scalma]

Yes, we'd have full bird rights. I can't imagine Porter getting close to that in free agency given his injuries this year so I'm pretty confident he'd accept. Mayyyybe something like Harrison Barnes did last year where he opted out of a similar contract and then signed a 4 year deal for less money per year. Not a lot of teams have cap space and the teams that do (like Atlanta) probably wouldn't offer him a big contract.

I wish I knew what the objective was at the deadline. Hopefully it’s not just to dip the tax, because if Porter is available, we’re in a position to get him now. If he’s not, then I’m ok with dipping the tax as long as we acquire contracts that go beyond this season, just so we can make a play for a guy like him next year.

 

[wizenheimer]

Andrew Nicholson - 2.8 mil (per year thru 2024, ugh)
Anderson Varejao- 1.9 mil

This freaking stretch provision is one of my least favorite things about the CBA, and I hate that Neil used it on those two.

just a FYI: if Portland had not used the stretch provision on Nicholson, this season would be the 3rd straight year the Blazers were in the tax...meaning they'd be paying repeater tax next season....meaning Portland would likely be abandoning any hopes of upgrading the roster in favor of avoiding the repeater tax

Correct. Best case the max cap space will be slightly above the MLE. It isn't enough to make it worth it to waive the TPE

I doubt the Blazers will have much if any cap-space.

for one thing, it's entirely possible the cap won't increase. Revenue was down significantly and that was before the "China" thing

for another thing, Skal has a 7M cap-hold and I seriously doubt the Blazers would waive him after what happened this season

Blazers will be at 97M (counting Hood and Hezonja); 99-100M counting their 1st round pick; 112M counting Ariza (assuming he isn't waived). They could use their full-MLE putting them in the 121-122M range. Re-sign Skal for 3-4M. And they'd have their new 7M TPE and vet minimum deals to fill the roster, and still probably be under the tax line

the one caution with that would be they would be hard-capped from using the MLE. But IIRC, I think they could avoid being hard-capped as long as their MLE contract did not exceed the tax-MLE level

This would make it close enough that Portland could duck the tax with a small Whiteside trade

I doubt getting all the way under the tax line is a goal for this season. Sure, if they can get there thru some kind of lateral talent exchange, they'd do it

but I'd bet the main goal is to be under the tax line next season. Which is why I'm real skeptical about Portland making any trades for high salary players like Love, Porter, or Aldridge

 

[hoopsjock]

just a FYI: if Portland had not used the stretch provision on Nicholson, this season would be the 3rd straight year the Blazers were in the tax...meaning they'd be paying repeater tax next season....meaning Portland would likely be abandoning any hopes of upgrading the roster in favor of avoiding the repeater tax



I doubt the Blazers will have much if any cap-space.

for one thing, it's entirely possible the cap won't increase. Revenue was down significantly and that was before the "China" thing

for another thing, Skal has a 7M cap-hold and I seriously doubt the Blazers would waive him after what happened this season

Blazers will be at 97M (counting Hood and Hezonja); 99-100M counting their 1st round pick; 112M counting Ariza (assuming he isn't waived). They could use their full-MLE putting them in the 121-122M range. Re-sign Skal for 3-4M. And they'd have their new 7M TPE and vet minimum deals to fill the roster, and still probably be under the tax line

the one caution with that would be they would be hard-capped from using the MLE. But IIRC, I think they could avoid being hard-capped as long as their MLE contract did not exceed the tax-MLE level



I doubt getting all the way under the tax line is a goal for this season. Sure, if they can get there thru some kind of lateral talent exchange, they'd do it

but I'd bet the main goal is to be under the tax line next season. Which is why I'm real skeptical about Portland making any trades for high salary players like Love, Porter, or Aldridge

I just saw a breakdown of the Royce O'Neal extension for Utah in which it said the contract was based off of the expected Full-MLE and that teams were operating that the cap will be a little over $115 million next year (originally expected to be $116). I'm not sure how accurate that is though.

 

[B-Roy]

Blazers will be at 97M (counting Hood and Hezonja); 99-100M counting their 1st round pick; 112M counting Ariza (assuming he isn't waived). They could use their full-MLE putting them in the 121-122M range. Re-sign Skal for 3-4M. And they'd have their new 7M TPE and vet minimum deals to fill the roster, and still probably be under the tax line

the one caution with that would be they would be hard-capped from using the MLE. But IIRC, I think they could avoid being hard-capped as long as their MLE contract did not exceed the tax-MLE level

This seems like the most likely scenario to me. Using the full MLE on someone like Jerami Grant would be a lot better than taking on Love's contract or another similarly large deal. The FA class is quite awful though, and there's a lot of money out there....more likely we end up with someone like RHJ on the full MLE, gross...

The hard cap would still be set above the tax line, so they can use their full MLE and still resign Skal or someone else.

 

[wizenheimer]

I just saw a breakdown of the Royce O'Neal extension for Utah in which it said the contract was based off of the expected Full-MLE and that teams were operating that the cap will be a little over $115 million next year (originally expected to be $116). I'm not sure how accurate that is though.

doing math in my head now....if the cap is 115, that would put the tax line at 139 and the apron at 145, which is the line of the hard cap

the 'existing' roster gets them to around 110M (includes Ariza, Hood, and Hezonja). The 1st round pick puts it at about 113m, maybe a tick less. They now have 11 players. The full-MLE puts Portland in the 122-123 M range. And holding the TPE in reserve gigs that up to 129-130M. That's 15-17M below the apron.

at that point they'd have 12 players, with the option of Gabriel or Hoard being added. So they'd have a nice working margin in trade scenarios....assuming the cap actually increases 6M

I really don't think Whiteside is going to be traded. But if he is, I'd look for him to be traded for a couple of players, one with an expiring contract, and one with a salary next year that fits into that working margin without pushing the line. And wouldn't require much incentive for the other team. Like to Cleveland for Brandon Knight and Dante Exum; or to Washington for Ian Mahimi and Ish Smith

 

[tester551]

just a FYI: if Portland had not used the stretch provision on Nicholson, this season would be the 3rd straight year the Blazers were in the tax...meaning they'd be paying repeater tax next season....meaning Portland would likely be abandoning any hopes of upgrading the roster in favor of avoiding the repeater tax



I doubt the Blazers will have much if any cap-space.

for one thing, it's entirely possible the cap won't increase. Revenue was down significantly and that was before the "China" thing

for another thing, Skal has a 7M cap-hold and I seriously doubt the Blazers would waive him after what happened this season

Blazers will be at 97M (counting Hood and Hezonja); 99-100M counting their 1st round pick; 112M counting Ariza (assuming he isn't waived). They could use their full-MLE putting them in the 121-122M range. Re-sign Skal for 3-4M. And they'd have their new 7M TPE and vet minimum deals to fill the roster, and still probably be under the tax line

the one caution with that would be they would be hard-capped from using the MLE. But IIRC, I think they could avoid being hard-capped as long as their MLE contract did not exceed the tax-MLE level



I doubt getting all the way under the tax line is a goal for this season. Sure, if they can get there thru some kind of lateral talent exchange, they'd do it

but I'd bet the main goal is to be under the tax line next season. Which is why I'm real skeptical about Portland making any trades for high salary players like Love, Porter, or Aldridge

Being hard-capped shouldn't be a concern for next year.
The goal will be to stay below the tax line to help reset the repeater tax. The hard-cap is set ~$6m above the tax line... so there's no way to bump up against the hard-cap without crossing the tax line first (which I highly doubt they'll do).

 

[GhostOfPGA]

Trying to find a spot for Whiteside in a trade is tough. Stylistically the teams that most want Whiteside are Boston and Houston as they both have a pretty glaring need for interior rim protection and rebounding.

But what will they part with to match the salary?

Boston has two options; Hayward (that would require us to send filler), or a package of Smart, Kanter, and others.

Houston essentially would have to put up Capela and Tucker, would they? Idk.