deception
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http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/08/business/economy/08jobs.html?_r=1&hp
The most hopeful jobs report since last summer suggested Friday that the recession was ending, but the recovery will be marked by a still-rising unemployment rate and tens of thousands of job losses each month until next year.
The American economy shed 247,000 jobs last month, the smallest monthly toll since last August, the government reported on Friday. While businesses are expected to keep cutting positions through the rest of the year, the Labor Department’s latest figures offered hopeful signs for the American worker and a measure of relief to the Obama administration, which has faced rising criticism as unemployment blew past its earlier projections.
“The trend lines are positive,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com. “We are going from massive job losses to just big job losses on our way to a stable job market, I think by next spring.”
The length of the workweek increased, albeit slightly, for the first time since August, a sign that businesses were not scaling back hours to cut their payroll costs. The government said fewer jobs were lost this spring than it had initially estimated, revising June’s lob losses to 443,000 from 467,000. Hourly earnings rose.
In a reversal, the unemployment rate dropped to 9.4 percent from 9.5 percent, defying expectations of an increase. But economists cautioned that the unemployment rate had only declined because 400,000 people gave up their search for work and left the labor force.
But administration officials cited Friday’s unemployment report as evidence that the $787 billion stimulus, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, was working, and that the economy had edged back from the brink of depression.
“Were it not for the economic activity generated by the act, we would have lost hundreds of thousands more jobs last month,” said Jared Bernstein, the top economic adviser to Vice President Biden.
The administration weathered intense criticism last month when the pace of job losses accelerated after leveling off in May. Conservative critics have cited the monthly jobs report, which has rapidly become a political football, as evidence that the $787 billion stimulus was not working, while liberals have previously maintained that it showed that the economy needed another jolt of stimulus.
The White House has said there is no immediate need for an additional package, and has urged Americans to be patient as stimulus spending percolates through the economy.
Now, even if the economy begins growing again this summer — as many economists expect it will — laid-off workers are likely to be among the last to benefit. Businesses that slashed their work force and inventories over the last year to cope with the economic deterioration are likely to hire temporary workers or pay overtime wages before they begin fielding applications for new full-time workers.
That means hundreds of thousands more workers are likely to lose their jobs, perhaps well into next year.
“The basic message is that the rate of job cuts is diminishing, and that’s good news,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight. “Still, you’re seeing job cuts everywhere except education, health care, government. I don’t think we’re at bottom yet in employment.”