Put on your GM hat

[craigehlo]

This team isn't going to fully tear down and build through the draft without trying to build through trades first. Unfortunately, we are going to have to wait for other teams to get worse this season to find the right trade partners. Philly turning down Batum/Joel for Iguodala shows that some teams aren't desperate enough and we'll have to wait until around the deadline for anything of value.

 

[Natebishop3]

I think that is a great point, and I think a lot of the blame should fall on the Blazers. The Blazers oversold this team to their diehard fans, and now those fans refuse to believe they were fed a pile of crap. even with supreme health, this team was going to have to fight tooth and nail to get into a possition to win a title.

It all hinges on Oden. The team used Oden as a marketing tool to bring back the season ticket holders, and rebuild the fanbase. They hedged all their bets on their #1 pick and unfortunately they busted out. It was a gamble worth taking, but KP just kept checking and calling, never raising the bet. Finally he was left holding a four of clubs and two of spades. Not enough to win the pot.

 

[e_blazer]

Anybody that thinks trying to rebuild is too big of risk and thinks we just need that "one trade" that goes in our favor is overlooking a couple of things in my opinion. Teams that add that one missing piece are usually somewhat set for a run and usually have at least one or two all-star caliber players on their roster with the last move being just the thing to push them over the top. As far as risk goes, there really is none. Joel is going to be a free agent, Miller and Camby will also be free agents (and really old) when the lockout ends and the supposed cornerstones of this team aren't looking so stable. Maybe Lamarcus is worth holding on to, but even then he's probably never going to be an elite level player.

All that's left then is frittering around as a mediocre 40-42 win team for a few years, trying to hang on to just being 'respectable' or you can embrace the reality that this team as built might need to be torn down and overhauled -- for me, a team is either chasing a championship or they aren't and I would much rather see the team attempt to go back to the drawing board, so to speak, by attempting to acquire elite talent (probably through the draft since this is not a free agent hotbed) than screw around in the middle of the standings for five years.

I really doubt that a total rebuild from the ground up via the draft is the direction that Cho and Paul Allen have in mind at this point. First, while I don't disagree that championship teams generally are built around two or more elite-caliber players, those elite players are usually in the prime of their careers, not rookies fresh out of the draft. Second, as we have just witnessed with Roy and Oden, the only thing certain about taking a dip into the lottery as a way of building a contending team is having to endure several years of ugly basketball in order to do it. Given Paul Allen's age and health, I don't see him looking to take that route again after it just blew up in his face. Instead, I see a plan more on the order of what was done with the Whitsitt-era Blazers. I see the remainder of this season as the evaluation phase to see if Aldridge can be promoted to the central role that Rasheed played on that team (minus the crazy). I think they'll re-sign Oden and hope that they can get some mileage out of him. Roy's not going anywhere soon, but he'll probably have to accept a sixth man role. I think they'll look to surround Aldridge with other pieces that fit with his speed instead of the slogging offense that has been the norm with Roy's prior role. Can Cho find enough other vets at the end of their careers to make the model work the way Whitsitt did, and will the new CBA allow for it to happen? I think that the jury's out on those questions, but I just don't see a total rebuild happening in the next few years.

 

[Blaze01]

I don't think they need to build up from the ground....

Matthews\Batum are two pieces they could keep (Matthews for sure)....

Aldridge's play of late has been an eye opener, and if he can continue and build on that I certainly wouldn't deal him for anything short of spectacular....

Oden, wait and see what happens...doubt any good offers come in, and no way you let him walk until you see how he recovers...

Other than that? Up for grabs...starting first with Przybilla, Camby, Miller & Rudy....

 

[MIXUM]

batum is rudy/outlaw/sergio part 2

 

[andalusian]

batum is rudy/outlaw/sergio part 2

No he is not, as he can defend.

 

[LittleAlex]

No he is not, as he can defend.

He can't defend from the bench unfortunately.

Right now his shoulder has to be a huge concern for the team.
They simply cannot afford to invest in another player who will be in and out of the lineup due to injuries.

I like Nic and want him to succeed but I don't think you can build a team with him as a big piece of the puzzle.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I really doubt that a total rebuild from the ground up via the draft is the direction that Cho and Paul Allen have in mind at this point. First, while I don't disagree that championship teams generally are built around two or more elite-caliber players, those elite players are usually in the prime of their careers, not rookies fresh out of the draft. Second, as we have just witnessed with Roy and Oden, the only thing certain about taking a dip into the lottery as a way of building a contending team is having to endure several years of ugly basketball in order to do it. Given Paul Allen's age and health, I don't see him looking to take that route again after it just blew up in his face. Instead, I see a plan more on the order of what was done with the Whitsitt-era Blazers. I see the remainder of this season as the evaluation phase to see if Aldridge can be promoted to the central role that Rasheed played on that team (minus the crazy). I think they'll re-sign Oden and hope that they can get some mileage out of him. Roy's not going anywhere soon, but he'll probably have to accept a sixth man role. I think they'll look to surround Aldridge with other pieces that fit with his speed instead of the slogging offense that has been the norm with Roy's prior role. Can Cho find enough other vets at the end of their careers to make the model work the way Whitsitt did, and will the new CBA allow for it to happen? I think that the jury's out on those questions, but I just don't see a total rebuild happening in the next few years.

You might be right, but I really hope that management isn't going to adopt the model you're advocating; funding a luxury tax team that is battling year in and year out for a low playoff seed ala the Pacers for the last 7 or 8 years (ie. using a "good but not great" player as the foundation to build around).

As for the notion that you don't build around rookies fresh out of the draft and that it's stars in their prime that matter, I'd say that's mostly true, but look at the last 20 years of championship teams, almost all of them drafted a star or two and surrounded them with vets to ease their growing pains (Jordan, Duncan, Kobe, etc.) until they were in their prime.

The real shame in KP's approach was that there were too few veterans (or real pros if you prefer) on the team when he drafted Roy, Oden and Aldridge and if they were there he exchanged them for younger unproven players (Shipping out Z-bo in favor of Channing, Ime in favor of Martell and Travis, Jack in favor of Jerryd, etc.) Some of that was necessary and unavoidable, but some of it wasn't. If the team rebuilds again hopefully they'll keep enough veteran guys around to help guide whatever young hopeful stars they add to the roster. Luckily they have some guys like Aldridge and Matthews with either have enough experience or natural leadership qualities to help hold guys accountable on the court and/or shoulder a good chunk of the load.

Ultimately, the idea of a "rebuild" is on a continuum; we may see a combination of moves exchanging youngsters for a veteran and aged guys like Miller, Camby, etc. moved for prospects -- it doesn't have to be all one way or another.

 

[Masbee]

I'm not going to ask what specific players you want but if you were GM Larry Miller, I mean Rich Cho , what kind of team would you build for the next era of Blazer basketball?

Would you build this roster without Roy/Oden in mind?

SSOL-esque Uptempo offense with LaMarcus at Center?

Status quo with a Roy/Aldridge/Oden core?

If I was the GM.

I would go into a dark cave and hide.

The dream is over.

I have very incomplete information about the state of the team, it's players, it's coaches and the NBA with the upcoming lockout and new CBA. So a detailed plan is out of the question. Some assumptions:

Roy is untradeable right now for any kind of positive value.

Oden is untradeable right now for much positive value.

There will be a lockout and a shortened season next year.

McMillan has no interest in even a partial teardown and will flip every time a vet is traded.

Paul Allen is still willing to spend money on the team, within limits. No going over the lux tax most years.

The Blazer braintrust will not sign off on any plan that is obvious tanking, nor taking chances on too many talented but troubled projects.

After the retreat in the cave, I would come back and make secret plans to turn the team upsidedown and inside out.

 

[Masbee]

Plans would be fluid and with the idea to "retool" not "rebuild".

There is no "capspace plan". The Dallas model is followed. Keep trading. Sometimes going young. Sometimes old (in our case not too old). Whenever an improvement is part of the deal. Players are salary slots as well as production on the floor. Can't make trades if you don't collect players when you can.

The first main action is to hire a new training staff as soon as possible.

Eventually, all trainers, workout guys, physical thearapy folks, medical staff, surgeons - everybody - canned. Replaced by the very best that are available that have a proven track record of results with the very hardest cases. Additionally, the lead surgeon and the lead trainer, should be in charge of everyone else. Chain of command. Orders followed. Patients and Athletes should not be given or follow adivce from different people at different times. You don't want more than one chef in the kitchen.

If the guys the Blazers have been using in recent years are incompetent with the hardest cases, or snakebit - I DON'T CARE. Any management with a damn shouldn't either. Just get them the hell out of the building.

At the end of the season - fire all the coaches. Replace with the best coach you can hire that is happy to jump into the current mess. It may not be a great coach. You hope it is, but the idea here, is mostly fresh blood. That and you can't as easily "fire" the players.

During this season put Joel, Andre and Camby on the trade block. Trade them if we can get younger, even at the risk of a downgrade in production. We have to take that chance now as the trade value shelf life of these guys may be about to expire. But, do not trade them for meager value.

No player on this team is a cornerstone player. There is no real "core". Aldridge is the closest, yet he has failed to improve very much in the last several years, and his perception as a core player was always tied to be such a solid fit beside Oden and Roy - not how he stands on his own.

Be open to moving anybody on this roster for the right offer in order to improve the talent level. Without a forthcoming top pick; With no stomach for tanking; With no ability to lure a top tier free agent; the team needs to do whatever it can to try to obtain more talent, that is trade for better assets, and use those assets in a year or two to try to make a blockbuster trade.

 

[jlprk]

The real shame in KP's approach was that there were too few veterans (or real pros if you prefer) on the team when he drafted Roy, Oden and Aldridge and if they were there he exchanged them for younger unproven players (Shipping out Z-bo in favor of Channing, Ime in favor of Martell and Travis, Jack in favor of Jerryd, etc.) Some of that was necessary and unavoidable, but some of it wasn't. If the team rebuilds again hopefully they'll keep enough veteran guys around to help guide whatever young hopeful stars they add to the roster.

For years I've harped on how we need experienced players to balance youth. Nash cleaned out the roster, as instructed by Oregonian-controlled public opinion. Then Pritchard rebuilt, but he was afraid of players who had already been in the NBA. All those gunslingers smoking pot from the barrels of their Uzis would turn off Oregon, the state whose motto is, "We're the flip side of a ghetto." Check your drivers license. It's there.

So we had the youngest team in the league for 2-3 years, longer if you exclude players who didn't play. We had the 3rd-youngest all time NBA team, which some were proud of, but I saw as a disaster. Pritchard's rebuild depended totally on the draft.

Youth develops from being around age. Players learn from each other, not just coaches. It was no surprise to me when our youth froze in time. Each young player showed great promise at first, but didn't improve over the years. One by one, we traded them at a loss. Which of our current players are our leaders? Camby, Miller, Matthews...notice a pattern? You have to be very lucky to rebuild through the draft. The only reason Pritchard's youth strategy hasn't destroyed us is that Paul Allen's overspending has counterbalanced.

 

[LameR]

This may be homerish and long-winded. There's your warning.

The way I see it, our season has only remained afloat due to Miller, Matthews, Camby, and Aldridge.

I don't know if I'm in the minority or not, but I believe 'Dre when he says he wants to play 'til 40. Watching him yell instructions and cheer on Mills the other night also implies to me that he wouldn't mind taking a back-up role over time. I don't care if he can't shoot threes, he's a damn good basketball player and I say keep him. He has been our MVP the last two seasons.

Matthews has been just a ball of energy and it has been great to watch. I think you keep him as well unless there is a ground-breaking deal. Aldridge has shown lately that he can be "that guy". His rebounding will go down when Camby comes back, but if he can keep up some level of domination, whether it be directly shown in his stats or just by opening up the floor for others, he should be kept as well.

Due to his recent surge, I've pulled a 180 on Rudy as well. Obviously, I think he has to sustain production (although not necessarily at this level) to warrant being held onto, but I've been very, very impressed. The energy level of our team as a whole has been great lately, and he's a large reason why.

Roy isn't going anywhere barring a miracle due to his contract. He's a smart guy, and I hope he realizes sooner rather than later his limitations. As much as people here don't want to admit, he HAS had some good games this year. Problem is they were high in minutes. He has to change his game, that's the bottom line. He will realize it, and do that. I believe it 100%. I just don't know when that will be, or how good he will be during/after that process. The dude has put a ton of effort into being a great player, played injured, etc, etc and I think is receiving more criticism than necessary because fans are (understandably) upset at the lack of championships window that we were promised.

Don't give up on Oden. Most of his injuries have been freak injuries. I still believe he can be a good player. If you expect 20/15/5, you're going to probably be disappointed, but I don't think we have much to lose by not giving up on him. It's not like we're wining a championships in the next year or two.

I love Camby, I really do, but he's up there in years, and can probably do a lot more for a contender than us over the remainder of his contract. He's also mentioned retiring I believe, so counting on him sticking around past next year would be foolish. I make Camby, along with everyone else I haven't mentioned very available. Get good players, period. Don't worry about fitting with Roy, because he may only be playing 15 minutes per game. Get out of your heads now that we can make some awesome trades ridding us of Roy's contract, shipping out scrubs and space, and getting back some amazing player.

That's why I balk at the thought of trading Miller. What are we going to get back? Who else can we get that will make this team run as well as he can? Probably no one unless we're giving away a lot of other players. No one on this team is untouchable, but I hold onto Miller, Matthews, and Aldridge (and maybe Rudy) and see what we can do.

 

[Pinwheel1]

^ I agree that it will not be easy finding a true PG as good as Miller. Trading him could effect the performance of LMA. Andre gets him easy baskets.

For the reasons you stated, I also agree you hold on to LMA, Matthews, Roy, Camby and Oden.

The problem is how do they get better? They need one more guy who can create his own shot. Someone who when the game's on the line can attack. IMO it has to be a PG or wing to do that. (Big men rarely are those guys anymore)

So that leaves Batum, Joel and Rudy has the bait. (Along with a rookie or two) Rudy is playing well but he will always be a short timer in Portland. You might as well include him in a trade unless for some reason he has changed his mind on wanting to be here long term. (Doubtful)

Maybe Batum, Joel, Rudy, Babbitt, and Elliot Williams for .....Iguodala. The salaries are close.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Yes. agree with everyone who says keep Aldridge, Batum and Mathews as a core. I would not be in a rush to made trades except in the case of Pryzbilla, I think he definitely needs to go before the trading deadline, he has no value after that. Miller's situation is interesting since he could be traded at draft time to a cost conscious team; since his last year is team option, a team could trade for him and release him; so he might have the most value at that time. Try to acquire younger players or draft picks or move up in the draft in exchange for these two. Obviously our biggest needs are point guard and a big athletic high energy PF/C.

Then, I would try to identify a player (Deron Williams, Chris Paul?) on another team who would be approaching free agency in 2011-2012 and at that time try to get him with Camby (would be expiring by then) and whatever assets we had managed to acquire by then. If we can't find that situation then just try to go forward with those assets ourselves. I don't count on anything from Oden but even if he did come back we would still need another big so that doesn't effect the planning. I believe at best Roy could be a parttime role player so we also need to find someone who can shoot at a high percent, ideally find a PG who also shoots very well.

One thing I am saying is that each of our most tradeable assets has maximum value at different times and the team should take that into account, even Przbilla who may have the most value right at the trade deadline (because of less salary or because he may improve by then.). It's possible that Cho is taking that into account and is not just sitting on his duff.

 

[MIXUM]

you cant trade camby .... not only is he our best center .... but hes a hell of a teammate.

he said his goal is to get LA TO LA in this mornings paper.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

you cant trade camby .... not only is he our best center .... but hes a hell of a teammate.

he said his goal is to get LA TO LA in this mornings paper.

If that is a response to my post, my plan is to possibly trade him at the deadline in the 2011-2012 season, so he still has time to get LMA into the allstar game.

 

[Boob-No-More]

One thing I am saying is that each of our most tradeable assets has maximum value at different times and the team should take that into account, even Przbilla who may have the most value right at the trade deadline (because of less salary or because he may improve by then.). It's possible that Cho is taking that into account and is not just sitting on his duff.

I agree with this approach of moving players when they have maximum value. However, the pending lockout may screw that all up. I agree that, under normal circumstances, Andre Miller's value would be at a maximum come June or July, when he'd essentially be an instantly expiring contract. A team could do a serious salary dump by acquiring him from Portland and then simply not exercising the team option on his contract. But, the pending lock out may ruin that plan.

In spite of all my recent posts defending Miller, I absolutely would not hesitate to trade him before the deadline, as long as we got something of comparable value in return. I absolutely do NOT want to see this team tank. I want them to fight to the bitter end to make the playoffs - even if that means keeping Miller and Camby through the end of the season. Why? The young core of this team desperately needs more playoff experience. The post season is totally different than the regular season. The intensity is at a whole other level, and teams have days to scout, prepare and make adjustments between games. Aldridge NEEDS a post season being the team's number one option. He needs to learn how to adjust to teams devising a game plan specifically around stopping him game, after game, after game. Batum NEEDS more playoff experience. After game 1 last season, he looked TOTALLY lost and confused. Wes Matthews is a second year player who needs more playoff experience. Our entire bench NEEDS playoff experience.

Besides, tanking could be self-defeating. If we miss the play-offs, it pretty much guarantees that Hornets will make it. While it looked like they were falling fast, there for a while, they seem to have turned it around, having won 4 straight and 7 of 10. The pick we got from them for Bayless is what, top 8 protected? I'd rather have their high lottery pick, and our own in the mid to late teens, AND another year of playoff experience, that our own high lottery pick and theirs in the mid to high teens and no additional playoff experience for our young guys.

BNM