I'm going to ignore the immediate short term, because guys like Juwan Howard are MUCH more valuable now due to all the injuries to key players than they will be longer term. Instead, I will rank the players in terms of "must keep", "nice to keep", "Potential Trade Bait" and "Don't Care". I will also list them from top to bottom in each category.
Must Keep:
Roy
Oden
Batum
Miller
Nice to Keep:
Bayless
Przybilla
Aldridge
Potential Trade Bait:
Cunningham
Fernandez
Outlaw
Blake
Webster
Pendergraph
Howard
Mills
Don't Care:
Kopenen
Freeland
Claver
Details:
Must Keep:
Keeping Roy is a no-brainer.
Ditto for Oden. In spite of all the injuries, I still think he is the key to our championship hopes - just like Bill Walton was back in 1977. You need to be able to rebound, defend the paint and punish the other team in the half court to win in the play-offs. Oden, when healthy, does all that better than anyone else on our roster.
I also think Batum is untouchable. He is so young, so good and will only get better. Oden guarding the paint and Batum defending the perimeter is a recipe for post season success. Oden just turned 22 and Batum just turned 21. These guys will anchor our defense, inside and out, for the next decade.
I also added Miller to the must keep list. Probably not a popular choice, but he is so much better than any other PG we have. He makes his teammates better. He's smart, durable and cheap. I think he's worth more to this team than he would fetch in a trade. So, I want to keep him at least the rest of this season and all of next.
He's also a great mentor for Bayless. As Miller has shown in the last two games, he is the master of creating easy scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates. He reads the defense and then expoits its weaknesses. Against Dallas, he saw he could drive the paint, get to the basket and get an easy lay-up before the help defense arrived. Against Charlotte, who plays much better defense, he drew the help defense and then found his open teammates for the easy scores. A lot of players who scored 52 points the previous game, would tend to look for their own shots the next time out. Not Miller. He didn't force anything. He's probably the only player in league history to score 52 points in one game and then only attempt 6 shots in the next (in spite of playing almost 33 minutes).
Bayless has shown greatly improved passing over the last few months, but he still tends to leave his feet and force his own shot when he drives and the help defense collapses on him. That's the one area I think he can learn from Miller - to recognize when the help defense is coming and find the resulting open teammate. Which is why I want to keep Miller around for another seasomn after this one.
Nice to Keep:
Bayless has shown me enough over the past two months that I'd only trade him in a deal that brought back an established, but not too old all-star caliber player. I hope Nate continues to play Bayless 25 - 30 MPG backing up both guard positions after Roy comes back. At this point in his career, he is perfect for that role. He's not ready to be our full time starting PG, but in a 6th man roll where he can back-up both positions he will get plenty of PT, which will help him develop. I do see him eventually becoming that "PG of the Future" we all seem to dream about. Once he learns to read defenses better, exploit them and create easy scoring opportunites for his teammates, I think he will be a very good fit next to Roy. At that point (hopefully 1 - 1.5 years from now), he can become the starter and Miller can either become the back-up, or the team can decline their 3rd year option on his contract.
If Joel is healthy, he's the best back-up center in the league. He's not the offensive threat Oden is, but when Joel comes in our rebounding and defense don't suffer. To me, that makes him very important and I would not trade him unless he's part of a package for an all-star caliber player, or we are getting a rebounding/defensive stud in return.
I'm not a LaMarcus hater. I think he's a good, but not great player. I do think his production/importance can be more easily replaced than the guys ahead of him. So, if a deal comes a long where we package him and another player or two for an upgrade at PF (like Chris Bosh), I wouldn't hesitate to do it.
Potential Trade Bait:
While I wouldn't want to trade ALL of these players, I would not hesitate to trade any of them if the right deal came along.
Cunningham - smart player, good value for a second round pick.
Fernandez - probably has the most trade value and will never play the minutes he wants backing-up Roy - especially with Bayless emerging. Good player, but expendable.
Outlaw - I think he's become redundant (especially if we keep both Batum and Cunningham).
Blake - solid back-up, but I want to see Miller continue to get starter's minutes and Bayless get the back-up PG minutes.
Webster - another solid back-up and plays defense. I could go either way on Martell. I wouldn't mind keeping him, but I wouldn't hesitate to trade him.
Pendergraph - like his toughness, but if Oden and Przybilla are healthy, he gets Shavlik minutes.
Howard - best damn 14th man in the league, great (cheap) veteran presence, but like Pendergraph is only playing due to injuries.
Mills - possible future (as in 2 - 3 years from now) instant offense off the bench, but I don't see him ever being much more than that.
Don't Care:
Kopenen
Freeland
Claver
The Eurostash just ain't what it used to be. By the time these guys develop into players that can contribute at the NBA level (if they do) they will be locked up by their European teams for WAY more money than the Blazers can offer thanks to the NBA rookie salary scale. The only way they WON'T get paid more to stay in Europe is if they suck. I now view all three as wasted draft picks. You might be able to package their rights a part of a larger trade, but I'd rather use future late 1st round picks on guys who may some day actually play for us. These days, if you draft a Euro, you better plan on signing him to an NBA contract right away (like Batum), otherwise, you probably never will. I predict (and I'd love to be wrong) that none of these three will ever play one minute of real NBA basketball (not summer league) in a Portland Trail Blazer uniform. Trade 'em if you can.
BNM
