Rank the West & Vote where the Blazers finish

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What position will the Blazers finish in the West?

  • Total voters
    74
THE HCP said:
Blazers AHEAD of Nuggets...... wow.
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Yeah.

I'm not sold on the Nuggets. Something to me just seems "off" about them. I think they have some big question marks on the defensive end and just overall consistency in general. Too much of what they do is built around a great offensive player who is even more a defensive liability than Dame.

I think the Nuggets and Blazers are kind of similar in a number of ways. I think Dame has something to prove, and I don't bet against him when he plays with an edge.
 
THE HCP said:
But they will contend for a championship. That's the goal right? It's OK to admit another team is better than our Blazers sir.
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where the hell was it that I even hinted they were not better?

you guys need to stop trying to read between my lines because you suck at it
 
All I believe is The Blazers will be considerably better than last year.
Gone are the lackadaisical attitudes of, well, you know, replaced with guys who simply put, Give A Fuck..
That alone will improve this team greatly.
Oh, there's also this Lillard finally being healthy (with even more to prove) thing, that many are over-looking.
Anything can happen, duh.
Injuries, are the great equalizer, if Portland clicks, and stays healthy?...
 
andalusian said:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nikola-jokic-bolstered-his-mvp-case-with-his-defense/

Nope, you have not been paying attention
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I have been paying attention. I've seen their metrics.

Except ... the metrics are only part of the equation, and putting all your faith in numbers that can be spun will lead you to making some really poor evaluations.

I actually take that into consideration, but I take into bigger consideration what I see. Numbers don't occur in a vacuum, and following the metrics that purport that they do even when you can see clearly with your own eyes will be your undoing most of the time.
 
For instance, did you realize the metrics say the Nuggets were the worst defensive team in the entire playoffs?

Here's another: the very 538 link you post has Rudy Gobert last season having the second-best defensive season in the past nine years. Except Gobert was exposed as a huge liability on the defensive end in the playoffs because he couldn't get out and contest shots in the corner and recover.

Same article has Gorgui Dieng in the class of Gobert, Draymond Green and Clint Capella defensively.

You have to have context. You have to know what these teams have around their other players and how they scheme their defenses. Metrics never tell the whole story; if they did, we wouldn't need to play these games.
 
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BTW, according to 538's RAPTOR index, Al Horford, Fred VanVleet and Jrue Holiday are better players than Devin Booker, LeBron James and Kevin Durant.

Anyway, thanks for the reference to 538's ratings. I'll take Booker, James and Durant.
 
wizenheimer said:
did you see me register any problem?

all I said was that the Clippers depth had a big price tag and a lot of the players have fairly extensive injury histories. It wouldn't take a lot to derail their contention. 3 months ago, one Covid diagnosis and the Clips, at home, couldn't beat the 9 seed

in the last 5 seasons, Kawhi has played 178 games....that's less than 36 a year. In the last 3 seasons, PG13 has averaged 44 games. LAC is not a contender without both of those guys healthy
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Then we agree that the cost should not be a problem and they are very deep.
If they stay healthy they should be considered one Of the favorites.
 
PCmor7 said:
I have been paying attention. I've seen their metrics.

Except ... the metrics are only part of the equation, and putting all your faith in numbers that can be spun will lead you to making some really poor evaluations.

I actually take that into consideration, but I take into bigger consideration what I see. Numbers don't occur in a vacuum, and following the metrics that purport that they do even when you can see clearly with your own eyes will be your undoing most of the time.
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Sure. Don't look at the individual metrics, listen to Draymond Green:

“I went at Jokic’s defense. I’m like, if they’re ever going to be a good team, he’s the backline of the defense. He has to be good defensively. And I showed four clips of him not rotating over as the low man, him not moving. … He came up to me the following year, he said something along the lines of, ‘I saw what you said about my defense.’ He said, ‘You were right.’ He said, ‘I’ve gotten better.’ I said, ‘You’ve 100 percent gotten better. I’ve been watching you this year.’”

Also, with Jokic on the floor, the Nuggets had a DRTG of 104, which is elite (The warriors as a team were at 106, the only 2 players on the warriors that had a lower DRTG were Draymond and GP2). How the hell can you have elite team defense with a defensive liability at the 5 without all-world defensive wings on the roster? (BTW, there was no player on the Nuggets roster with a lower DRTG than him) There is no effin' way of it can happen. Jokic is not a defensive liability. He is not a drop-coverage defender and he is not a great rim protector, but he is very quick with his hands and he is an absolute master at understanding angles (which is why he is such an amazing passer). He is taking these gifts to the defense now.

BTW, Draymond is not the only one that is seeing Jokic's defensive improvement:

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2021/12/13/22831783/nba-trade-deadline-utah-jazz-boston-celtics

Jokic is even better on defense. He’s a positional rim protector who doesn’t block many shots but has improved his agility in order to stay in front of opponents and bother shots.

The rapid processing that helps fuel Jokic’s offense now translates on defense. He knows what the opponent is going to do even before they do it, and he’s able to get his hands in the way to contest, swat at the ball, or block shots. Jokic’s coordination is elite, and now he’s in the best condition of his life; together, that’s helped him become a highly productive defender. No one can call him a liability anymore.
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PCmor7 said:
For instance, did you realize the metrics say the Nuggets were the world defensive team in the entire playoffs?

Here's another: the very 538 link you post has Rudy Gobert last season having the second-best defensive season in the past nine years. Except Gobert was exposed as a huge liability on the defensive end in the playoffs because he couldn't get out and contest shots in the corner and recover.

Same article has Gorgui Dieng in the class of Gobert, Draymond Green and Clint Capella defensively.

You have to have context. You have to know what these teams have around their other players and how they scheme their defenses. Metrics never tell the whole story; if they did, we wouldn't need to play these games.
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I really like this post. Exactly the way I look at it.
 
andalusian said:
Sure. Don't look at the individual metrics, listen to Draymond Green:

“I went at Jokic’s defense. I’m like, if they’re ever going to be a good team, he’s the backline of the defense. He has to be good defensively. And I showed four clips of him not rotating over as the low man, him not moving. … He came up to me the following year, he said something along the lines of, ‘I saw what you said about my defense.’ He said, ‘You were right.’ He said, ‘I’ve gotten better.’ I said, ‘You’ve 100 percent gotten better. I’ve been watching you this year.’”

Also, with Jokic on the floor, the Nuggets had a DRTG of 104, which is elite (The warriors as a team were at 106, the only 2 players on the warriors that had a lower DRTG were Draymond and GP2). How the hell can you have elite team defense with a defensive liability at the 5 without all-world defensive wings on the roster? (BTW, there was no player on the Nuggets roster with a lower DRTG than him) There is no effin' way of it can happen. Jokic is not a defensive liability. He is not a drop-coverage defender and he is not a great rim protector, but he is very quick with his hands and he is an absolute master at understanding angles (which is why he is such an amazing passer). He is taking these gifts to the defense now.

BTW, Draymond is not the only one that is seeing Jokic's defensive improvement:

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2021/12/13/22831783/nba-trade-deadline-utah-jazz-boston-celtics
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Look, if you want to man-crush on Jokic, be my guest. If you want to turn your brain off and just blindly follow other people, do that. Just don't expect all of us to do that.

I'm going to go with what I see, which is a Nuggets team that was a sixth seed in the playoffs despite having a two-time MVP who supposedly was an elite defender this year, too. Said Nuggets team got wiped out by the Warriors in the first round, allowing more than 118 points in four of the five games and considerably more ppg than any opponent Golden State faced in its four series and needed to score 126 in its one (5-point) win. Jokic played more than 32 minutes in four of those five games.

You can give me Player X and Player Y's quotes. Don't care. I've seen enough interviews over the years to know I can take them as part of the equation but realized that not all people say what they really think with a camera or a voice recorder in their face.

BTW, segueing Point A and Point B, Draymond's saying Jokic got better at defense. That's not saying he's a good defender. That says he's improved. Buuuuuut ... the Warriors destroyed Jokic and the Nuggets' defense, so I mean, using that as some kind of justification that Jokic now is a quality defender is kind of like nailing Jell-O to the wall.

Then there you go, back to the metrics like it's going to matter to me because I've already showed you that the metrics can be misleading.

You have to take things in context. IMO, you aren't.

Now, if you are a Nuggets fan and you feel comfortable seeing Jokic being switched in the pick and roll onto Dame, or Curry, or Trae, or LeBron, or Donovan Mitchell, or etc., etc., hey, good on you. If I were a Nuggets, I wouldn't, but, hey, some people like stapling bologna to their face.

Anyway, enjoy your hero worship. I'm sure you and Doris Burke can get a room and spend the night talking about your mutual love of Nikola Jokic.
 
Fairly-Hard said:
I really like this post. Exactly the way I look at it.
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Thank you. I don't really know why this is so hard for some people.

If you replace Looney with Jokic on the Warriors, I bet Jokic puts up really good defensive metrics, probably better than with the Nuggets. At the same time, I bet the Warriors decline defensively to some extent.

Put Jokic on the Celtics with an on-ball perimeter defender like Smart who can make it hard to run the pick-and-roll, I bet Jokic puts up great defensive numbers, too.

Is Jokic a different player? No. He's just put in a different situation with different defenders around him ... yet his numbers are likely to fluctuate. It's not rocket surgery.
 
Isn't Jamal Murray coming back this year? I mean, he is still only 25 and was pretty fricking good before his injury. If he is healthy, that's a huge addition. A healthy Murray might be our 2nd best player.
 
PCmor7 said:
Yeah.

I'm not sold on the Nuggets. Something to me just seems "off" about them. I think they have some big question marks on the defensive end and just overall consistency in general. Too much of what they do is built around a great offensive player who is even more a defensive liability than Dame.

I think the Nuggets and Blazers are kind of similar in a number of ways. I think Dame has something to prove, and I don't bet against him when he plays with an edge.
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I just think they have 10x the talent as we do. Murray is coming back right?
 
Murray is coming back, so is Michale Porter Jr. Both are said to be 100%

STOMP
 
Yeah Denver has the pieces to be very good. It's kind of funny because for the last few years it just seems Blazer success leads through Denver and of course through Golden State. If the Blazers are going to be good they will need to knock those teams off as well as the Clippers. You gotta beat the best and the Warriors and Nuggets have a couple of the very best ever to play.
 
SlyPokerCat said:
Impossible. I've heard from people that Powell stinks and we are better off without him and his overpaid contract.
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No doubt in my mind that the Clippers will be one of the better teams this year. Better than us for sure. I agree I would like to have NP in our 3 deep.

However, if you were to ask who I would rather give minutes to at SG between NP, Ant, and Hart......NP would be 3rd. And if you asked me who I would rather give minutes to at SF between NP, Hart, and Little...NP would be 3rd. I doubt Norman would be happy with that scenario, but sure I would love to have him on our team for depth purposes. I like his game, but I like the others as well. And I have not even mentioned GP2 or Winslow who might not be better 2-way players but are better defenders.
 
Pinwheel1 said:
No doubt in my mind that the Clippers will be one of the better teams this year. Better than us for sure. I agree I would like to have NP in our 3 deep.

However, if you were to ask who I would rather give minutes to at SG between NP, Ant, and Hart......NP would be 3rd. And if you asked me who I would rather give minutes to at SF between NP, Hart, and Little...NP would be 3rd. I doubt Norman would be happy with that scenario, but sure I would love to have him on our team for depth purposes. I like his game, but I like the others as well. And I have not even mentioned GP2 or Winslow who might not be better 2-way players but are better defenders.
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Perhaps, but that Clippers trade was abysmal, Powell is a good player, and he is not overpaid. We should have waited until the deadline or traded him in the offseason if we so pleased.
 
SlyPokerCat said:
Isn't Jamal Murray coming back this year? I mean, he is still only 25 and was pretty fricking good before his injury. If he is healthy, that's a huge addition. A healthy Murray might be our 2nd best player.
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Not might. A healthy Murray would easily be our 2nd best player.
 
PCmor7 said:
Look, if you want to man-crush on Jokic, be my guest.
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No disrespect, but I do not need your approval to like great basketball players. It is nice to have it, but not necessary, save yourself the hassle in the future.

If you want to turn your brain off and just blindly follow other people, do that. Just don't expect all of us to do that.
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So, your argument is that I should not follow some random dude on the internet telling me something that the numbers and all-world defenders like Draymond Green confirm. Agree. I have no interest in following someone that obviously has bias, so I will certainly not listen to your "observations" and follow them blindly, but look at what the numbers tell me and listen to people that know.

I'm going to go with what I see, which is a Nuggets team that was a sixth seed in the playoffs despite having a two-time MVP who supposedly was an elite defender this year, too. Said Nuggets team got wiped out by the Warriors in the first round, allowing more than 118 points in four of the five games and considerably more ppg than any opponent Golden State faced in its four series and needed to score 126 in its one (5-point) win. Jokic played more than 32 minutes in four of those five games.
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Oh no, an injured Nuggets team, going against the eventual champion was creamed and because of that small sample size your word is king? Please. I would rather have an entire season and judge it with proper numbers over a large enough sample size. It's simple math.

You can give me Player X and Player Y's quotes. Don't care. I've seen enough interviews over the years to know I can take them as part of the equation but realized that not all people say what they really think with a camera or a voice recorder in their face.
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Sure, we established, you only believe your eyes, not the math, not people that know. Just makes it easier to follow you argument not to follow blindly other people, especially ones that do not check for facts or listen to people that know.

Anyway, enjoy your hero worship. I'm sure you and Doris Burke can get a room and spend the night talking about your mutual love of Nikola Jokic.
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Thank you for this great advice, I will enjoy watching basketball played well by great players. It's the best thing about this game. Not sure what Doris Burke has to do with it, but I am not good at deciphering a lot of what you see, so it is par for the course.
 
THE HCP said:
I just think they have 10x the talent as we do. Murray is coming back right?
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Ten times as much talent? That's quite a proclamation. That means you think the Nuggets are 1,000% better than the Blazers. Two years ago, they were five games better than the Blazers in the standings.

Murray should be back, but will he be back at anywhere near the same level after missing 1 1/2 seasons. Maybe. I'd certainly not put a lot of money on that, but it could happen.

Anyway, it's your opinion. That's fair and fine with me. I don't have to agree with it, try to defend it or go to any great lengths to try to discredit it.
 
PCmor7 said:
Ten times as much talent? That's quite a proclamation. That means you think the Nuggets are 1,000% better than the Blazers. Two years ago, they were five games better than the Blazers in the standings.

Murray should be back, but will he be back at anywhere near the same level after missing 1 1/2 seasons. Maybe. I'd certainly not put a lot of money on that, but it could happen.

Anyway, it's your opinion. That's fair and fine with me. I don't have to agree with it, try to defend it or go to any great lengths to try to discredit it.
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I’m sure he didn’t mean literally 10x. But anyway. They have more “star power” and that’s big in the NBA. An MVP in his prime, an elite young guy in Murray, Porter proved he can be very good, along with Aaron Gordon, Brown, etc. They seem to fit very well together and accept coaching.
 
andalusian said:
No disrespect, but I do not need your approval to like great basketball players. It is nice to have it, but not necessary, save yourself the hassle in the future.
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Excuse me, but you were the one who started this exchange between us by jumping to defend Jokic from another person's opinion like you were protecting your little brother. Please don't claim no disrespect now as your initial comment to me was somewhat disrespectful.

I didn't ask for your direct and dismissive response to me, but your stance was so weak that it took no effort to take it apart. That's not my fault, either. That all on you.

Finally, I'll respond to people talking to me on this board in the manner I find appropriate. I don't care if you tell me you need my approval or not. You might want to see if 578 has metrics on hypocrisy.
 
PCmor7 said:
Excuse me, but you were the one who started this exchange between us by jumping to defend Jokic from another person's opinion like you were protecting your little brother. Please don't claim no disrespect now as your initial comment to me was somewhat disrespectful.

I didn't ask for your direct and dismissive response to me, but your stance was so weak that it took no effort to take it apart. That's not my fault, either. That all on you.

Finally, I'll respond to people talking to me on this board in the manner I find appropriate. I don't care if you tell me you need my approval or not. You might want to see if 578 has metrics on hypocrisy.
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Yes, I pointed out that Jokic is no longer a liability on defense, it is exactly within the context of the discussion on ranking the west and is backed by data.

If there was a hypocrisy here, it was not from me but from people who told me they know better because they watched the games and that I should not listen to anyone else.
 
calvin natt said:
I’m sure he didn’t mean literally 10x. But anyway. They have more “star power” and that’s big in the NBA. An MVP in his prime, an elite young guy in Murray, Porter proved he can be very good, along with Aaron Gordon, Brown, etc. They seem to fit very well together and accept coaching.
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OK ... and ... what? Like I said, it's his opinion and he's entitled to it. I don't agree with it. I don't really why people are so defensive of the Denver Nuggets here, but whatever. I think people are overrating the Nuggets and I haven't seen a compelling argument otherwise, just opinion, which, again, is OK, just don't go out there and try to tell me your opinion is significantly more valid than anyone else's. HCP's argument was best, because he's not trying to go and make some case ... he's saying it's his opinion and that's all.

I'll make a couple of quick points, though. First, people keep talking about Murray. I mentioned in the very post you responded to that he's missed more than a year. Neither of us knows what he's going to be like. I think it's fair to be skeptical whether he'll be the same player he was before the injury because players with similar injuries often dip in performance, if not in the long term, certainly at least for a time. Would you say that is a fair analysis?

Second, you say Denver has this star power. Jokic is a two-time MVP. However, Denver's won 50 games just once in the last nine years. That's with Jokic, with Murray, with Porter, with Gordon, with Millsap.

I think a lot of people are giving the Nuggets a pass and projecting them to their optimal ability. The truth is they were a sixth seed last year that won one playoff game; fans on this board kill the Blazers for the same performance. The Nuggets are good. If anyone wants to say they are anything special, that's fine, but they haven't proven it yet. My opinion that the Blazers will be better this year should be at least as valid as anyone else's opinion that the Nuggets will be one of the best teams in the West.
 
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