The top 8:
LAL (59-23) - They were the best team in the league and won the title easily. Then they go and get rid of a crucial role player for a me-first blackhole nutcase. I have a feeling Ron-Ron is going to fuck the chemistry up, but they'll still be #1.
DEN (56-26) - They were pretty damn good last year, and I don't see that really changing. If they keep Birdman and JR gets one more precious year of maturity, all they can do is improve. If they weren't full of thugs, I would love this team.
POR (56-26) - Denver owns the tiebreaker on us. Even if we run with the crew we've got right now, we'll be better than last year. This is mainly because of the development of just about our entire team. It's easy to forget that they're all so young and with the exception of Joel, Steve and perhaps Travis, none of them have reached their peak yet. Particularly, I think that the development of Oden and Nate giving the backup reigns to Bayless are going to add some much needed consistency. The only two questions marks I have are: is Martell gonna show up? and who plays backup PF?
UTA (53-29) - Provided Deron stays healthy and their front line (Boozer, Okur, Milsap) is healthy as well, they're going to be much better than last year. The rest of their team is pretty sketchy, but they've got the Sloan-factor and Deron is only gonna get better.
SAS (53-29) - Utah will own the tiebreaker. This is assuming everyone stays healthy, which is unlikely. When you've got Duncan, Manu, McDyess, Blair and a washed up Finley, there's a distinct possibility that the Spurs could degenerate into the Parker and Jefferson show, which would be pretty ugly. However, if they stay healthy and Pop figures out how to utilize Jefferson (which I'm sure he will), then they may contend with LAL for the top spot. However, my instinct tells me that Duncan plays 60 games and Jefferson is underwhelming, so I think they'll be lucky to get to the WCF.
DAL - (50-32) I don't know if Marion is going to do much for them, and word now is that talks have stalled. Even if he does come over, this team is headed downhill. Kidd and Marion are both washed up, Terry and Howard are both undersized and play no D, and they're losing Bass. They either stay the same or drop in win total.
NO (48-34) They were disappointing last season, and they did next to nothing since then. It's pretty much the CP3 and David West show, with a washed up Peja and an injured Chandler. I don't see anything but another first round exit.
PHO - (45-37) They've got Nash, Amare and uhh... J-Rich. The only reason they get in is because Houston is going to be terrible. By the way, the reason a team with 45 wins is getting in is because I think overall, the bad teams in the West and a few in the East are getting significantly better next year, so that should help to reduce the number of 50 win teams in the playoffs next year.
The Rest:
OKC - I think it'll be close, but ultimately they won't get in. They're like the Blazers of two years ago, up and coming, full of talent, will go on a huge win streak and then miss the playoffs by thatmuch.
GS - If they keep Turiaf, Monta stays healthy and Jax continues his improbably steady veteran play, then they'll be pretty close to the playoffs.
HOU - edit: lol I forgot about them. With a potential starting lineup of Brooks/Wafer/Ariza/Scola/Mutumbo's Corpse, who wouldn't forget about them?
MEM - The starting 5 looks good on paper: Conley/Mayo/Gay/Z-bo/Thabeet. But I've said it before: it's going to implode spectacularly.
MIN - They traded away Randy Foye and drafted three point guards, the best of which isn't going to play for them. So, uh, if Big Al stays healthy and one of those PGs can play, then they might not be so terrible. Also Kevin Love is just gonna be better. But after that, it doesn't look good.
LAC - Injuries. You gotta love Gordon and Thorton, and hopefully Blake will be a stud, but look beyond them: Kaman, Camby, Baron and Ricky. Youch.
SAC - Something tells me that the Sergio trade isn't gonna put them over the top just yet. They're just bad.