RealGM: Portland v. GS Tactical Analysis

[Reep]

Nice read, and especially nice numbers analysis on Dame:

http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/245615/Tactical-Quandaries-Warriors-Vs-Blazers-Series-Preview

According to the Synergy Sports database, only seven players in league have been credited with over 700 scoring situations out of pick-and-rolls. Lillard sits at the top of that list in terms of points per possession, outpacing even MVP frontrunners James Harden and Russell Westbrook.
...
Against an “over” coverage, Lillard is averaging a ridiculous 1.159 points per possession, even higher than his overall mark of 1.018 (that was referenced above).
...
So if going over against Lillard pick-and-rolls doesn’t work, it makes sense to try going under them, right? Well, if you try to sneak under a pick set for a player who loves to unleash 3-point shots in pick-and-roll . . .

 

[Natebishop3]

The dude is just extremely underrated.

He's basically averaging 27, 6 and 5 on a 24 PER.

Who was the last Blazer to put up numbers even close to that?

Roy's best season was 22.6 ppg, 5 assists, 4.7 rebounds with a 24 PER.
Aldridge's best season was 23 ppg, 11 rebounds, and his highest PER was 22.8

Drexler put up 27 ppg twice. He was also averaging 39 mpg the second time he did it. Dame is averaging 36 mpg this season.
Drexler's best season was 27 ppg, 8 boards, 6 assists, 2.7 steals, with a 23.6 PER. He got to a 24 PER once.

Dame is having one of the best seasons in the history of this franchise and some people are still shitting on him

 

[BrianFromWA]

Dame is having one of the best seasons in the history of this franchise and some people are still shitting on him

 

[Natebishop3]

Trolls are people too!

 

[Minstrel]

Dame is having one of the best seasons in the history of this franchise and some people are still shitting on him

Well, Marbury got shit on too and we know that's Lillard's top comparable.

 

[H.C.]

How can you still believe in Lillard?

Did I do that right? @Portland2014

 

[ripcityboy]

Finally. A meme that makes sense!

 

[BlazerCaravan]

The dude is just extremely underrated.

He's basically averaging 27, 6 and 5 on a 24 PER.

Who was the last Blazer to put up numbers even close to that?

Roy's best season was 22.6 ppg, 5 assists, 4.7 rebounds with a 24 PER.
Aldridge's best season was 23 ppg, 11 rebounds, and his highest PER was 22.8

Drexler put up 27 ppg twice. He was also averaging 39 mpg the second time he did it. Dame is averaging 36 mpg this season.
Drexler's best season was 27 ppg, 8 boards, 6 assists, 2.7 steals, with a 23.6 PER. He got to a 24 PER once.

Dame is having one of the best seasons in the history of this franchise and some people are still shitting on him

Dame's 59-point explosion SINGLE-HANDEDLY moved him from 23.8 to 24.0 PER. That's how good that game was... after 75 games, it moved the needle for the entire season 0.2 points!

He's been incredible this year, especially after the ASG; before the ASG, he was right about 22.5 PER like last year. His play in the last act of the regular season has been dominant.

 

[stampedehero]

Bottom Line He has heart. He stayed when every starter LEFT.

 

[B-Roy]

CJ needs to go big.

Funny stat, CJ ended the season with a 19.99 PER. Sucks to suck.

 

[stampedehero]

Nice read, and especially nice numbers analysis on Dame:

http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/245615/Tactical-Quandaries-Warriors-Vs-Blazers-Series-Preview

Imagine if Nurk was on the team when the season started..

 

[Natebishop3]

Well, Marbury got shit on too and we know that's Lillard's top comparable.

That IS true. Maybe Dame will go over to China and dominate like Marbury.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

CJ needs to go big.

Funny stat, CJ ended the season with a 19.99 PER. Sucks to suck.

What the fuck are you trying to say?

 

[Natebishop3]

What the fuck are you trying to say?

I think he's saying that CJ sucked at the end of the year, so his PER tanked. But I could be wrong......

 

[BlazerCaravan]

I think he's saying that CJ sucked at the end of the year, so his PER tanked. But I could be wrong......

Ahh, I thought he was saying CJ sucks because his PER is under 20.

 

[Natebishop3]

Ahh, I thought he was saying CJ sucks because his PER is under 20.

Well, that too.... obviously.

 

[B-Roy]

What the fuck are you trying to say?

According to Hollinger:

Borderline All-Star 20-22.5
Second offensive option 18-20

Guess CJ is just a second offensive option.

 

[Natebishop3]

According to Hollinger:

Borderline All-Star 20-22.5
Second offensive option 18-20

Guess CJ is just a second offensive option.

So if a borderline All-Star is 20-22.5, what does a 27 PER get you?

 

[B-Roy]

So if a borderline All-Star is 20-22.5, what does a 27 PER get you?

All-time great season 43+
Hands-down MVP 33-42
Strong MVP candidate 29.9-32.9
Long-shot MVP candidate 25-27.5
Definite All-Star 22.5-25
Borderline All-Star 20-22.5
Second offensive option 18-20
Third offensive option 16.5-18
Slightly above-average player 15-16.5
Rotation player 13-15
Non-rotation player 11-13
Fringe roster player 9-11
Player who won't stick in the league 0-8.7

We have 5 rotation players (Vonleh, Turner, Crabbe, Aminu, Davis) at or around 11 PER, which Holinger says is a "Non-rotation player".

Also Meyers has an 8.9 PER, literally above "player who won't stick in the league" and below "Fringe roster player".

Seems about right.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

According to Hollinger:

Borderline All-Star 20-22.5
Second offensive option 18-20

Guess CJ is just a second offensive option.

I guess it's a good thing he's our second offensive option then!

 

[Natebishop3]

Long-shot MVP candidate 25-27.5
Definite All-Star 22.5-25

Apparently not

 

[B-Roy]

I guess it's a good thing he's our second offensive option then!

I just think it's a funny stat. CJ is clearly a borderline all-star. Nurk had a 21.1 PER playing with us. So two borderline all stars and a definite all star as our "big 3", most teams would be jealous to have that.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

I just think it's a funny stat. CJ is clearly a borderline all-star. Nurk had a 21.1 PER playing with us. So two borderline all stars and a definite all star as our "big 3", most teams would be jealous to have that.

Yep! I remember doing a quick PER analysis of championship teams and the winners typically have three 20+ PER starters with one being 24+

 

[Minstrel]

All-time great season 43+
Hands-down MVP 33-42
Strong MVP candidate 29.9-32.9
Long-shot MVP candidate 25-27.5
Definite All-Star 22.5-25
Borderline All-Star 20-22.5
Second offensive option 18-20
Third offensive option 16.5-18
Slightly above-average player 15-16.5
Rotation player 13-15
Non-rotation player 11-13
Fringe roster player 9-11
Player who won't stick in the league 0-8.7

Is that really what Hollinger has said? Because the top end of that makes no sense. 33 (the lowest end of "Hands-down MVP") is more than a point higher than the greatest season in NBA history. No one's reaching 43 until robots start playing.

"Strong MVP candidate" is where "All-time great season" should be, with everything above that cut away and everything below that re-adjusted.

 

[B-Roy]

Is that really what Hollinger has said? Because the top end of that makes no sense. 33 (the lowest end of "Hands-down MVP") is more than a point higher than the greatest season in NBA history. No one's reaching 43 until robots start playing.

"Strong MVP candidate" is where "All-time great season" should be, with everything above that cut away and everything below that re-adjusted.

Well it is.