Rebounding concerns?

[magnifier661]

At the beginning of the season I posted that obtaining a +50 rebounds would almost guarantee a top 4 spot. Well we haven't hit that mark yet, (44.9 for 8th in the league) but at least we have a +4 on the rebounding margin.

Do you think as long as we out rebound our opponent, we can still hit that mark or do we need that 50+ rebounding to get there?

 

[Boise Blazer]

Well to answer your question Mags let me pose a question to you: Do you think our rebounding can get better? We have improved but how much more can we improve and is that realistic?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

In regard to your initial question, you have to realize that nobody is even close to 50 rpg; Houston is leading the league at 47.6. The difference from us to Houston is almost as great as the difference from Houston to 50. So no, I don't see us reaching 50 team rpg.

When looking at total rebound numbers, however, one should remember that they are significantly impacted by pace and defense. Slow-paced teams can have great rebounding percentages, but may have lower totals, and even lower differentials, because there are fewer chances. Strong defensive teams will tend to have higher rebound totals since their opponents are shooting lower percentages, thereby leading to more defensive rebounding chances (of which an average team snares 74%)

That is the aspect of our team's rebounding that would require attention, if any. We are 3rd in the league in overall rebounding percentage at 52.5%, 5th in offensive rebounding at 29.4%, but tied for 11th in defensive rebounding percentage at 74.4% (slightly above average). We are also in the bottom third of the league in FG% allowed at 45.9%. If we are going to be a playoff team while being below average defensively, we will need to be excellent at retrieving the shots our opponents do miss.

 

[Blazer Fanatic]

At the beginning of the season I posted that obtaining a +50 rebounds would almost guarantee a top 4 spot. Well we haven't hit that mark yet, (44.9 for 8th in the league) but at least we have a +4 on the rebounding margin.

Do you think as long as we out rebound our opponent, we can still hit that mark or do we need that 50+ rebounding to get there?

Rebound differential is a better indicator, and Portland is 3rd best in the NBA right now. Granted, sample size and competition factor in, but 3rd is definitely significant. Exactly what PtldPlatypus said.

 

[magnifier661]

Well to answer your question Mags let me pose a question to you: Do you think our rebounding can get better? We have improved but how much more can we improve and is that realistic?

I absolutely think it can improve

 

[riverman]

I like that the rebounds are spread out on the team. We don't have one guy getting 20 boards but we've got a lot getting 7-8 and our stats in other areas are similar. Everyone who knows me knows I'm not a stat guy, but altering shots has made up for rebounds on the defensive end.

 

[HomerLovesKoolAid]

I absolutely think it can improve

Me too. I think most improvement can come from the small forward or guard positions. Lopez makes it possible for those guys to focus on it, similar to the Duckworth era Blazers teams where Kersey and Clyde rebounded pretty well.

 

[Boise Blazer]

I absolutely think it can improve

Then I would say 50 per game - no. Top 3 or 4 in rebounding? Yes

 

[magnifier661]

Then I would say 50 per game - no. Top 3 or 4 in rebounding? Yes

Well based on the trend so far, we aren't a bad rebounding team. Also, I believe that Lopez is learning the sweet spots as well as the other players after box out. I think this team will have one +10 rebounder in Aldridge and many 4-8 rebounders in Matthews, batum, t. Rob, Lopez and lillard.

 

[Draco]

Our defensive rebounding has been excellent the last few games. Going into this year one of the biggest question marks was our starting bigs being just competent on the glass. If we can be an above average rebounding team we will have a lot of success. We have exceptional shooters, plus Lopez and Aldridge bring a lot to the table besides rebounding. Maintaining the 11th ranked defensive rebounding % when our schedules gets more difficult should be the goal. Trying to be a top5 rebounding team is not realistic nor necessary. In particular I want the team to ignore offensive rebounds if we need to get in position defensively.

 

[Boob-No-More]

At the beginning of the season I posted that obtaining a +50 rebounds would almost guarantee a top 4 spot. Well we haven't hit that mark yet, (44.9 for 8th in the league) but at least we have a +4 on the rebounding margin.

Do you think as long as we out rebound our opponent, we can still hit that mark or do we need that 50+ rebounding to get there?

The 50+ rebounds per game is unrealistic, and I assume it's based on preseason stats. Last season, the Pacers led the league in total rebounds at 45.3 rpg. In 2011-12, the Warriors led the league at 45.8 rpg. 2010-11, Timberwolves 44.4 rpg. 2009-10, Bulls, 44.5 rpg. In today's NBA a team averaging 50+ rpg is unheard of.

The 50+ rpg during preseason was inflated by extremely poor shooting. It's preseason for a reason. Nobody is in mid-season form, and the coaches are giving a lot of minutes to scrubs trying to figure out who gets the last couple roster spots and what the bench rotation is going to be. So, LOTS of missed shots == LOTS of rebounds to go around. The Blazer shot 36% from the field against the Warriors, and still won by 16. There were 105 total rebounds in that game. 5 of the 7 preseason game had 94 or more total rebounds. The average number of total rebounds per game in the preseason was 93. For the regular season, that number is 85. That's 8 fewer rebounds per game total.

44.9 rpg is actually a very respectable figure if they can maintain it. The average league leading team rpg over the last 4 season was 45.0. So, I'm totally satisfied with the Blazers being at 44.9, with a rebound differential of +4.4.

Also, I touched on this in the Asik trade rumor thread. All 5 Blazer starters are averaging career high rpg, some by significant margins.

Lopez:
Current = 7.6 rpg
Previous Best = 5.6 rpg
Delta = +2.0 rpg

Aldridge:
Current = 9.1 rpg
Previous Best = 9.1 rpg
Delta = 0.0 rpg

Batum:
Current = 6.4 rpg
Previous Best = 5.6 rpg
Delta = +0.8 rpg

Matthews:
Current = 5.0 rpg
Previous Best = 3.4 rpg
Delta = +1.6 rpg

Lillard:
Current = 4.8 rpg
Previous Best = 2.9 rpg
Delta = +1.9 rpg

That's a combined +6.3 rpg for our starters compared to their previous career bests. And, Lopez is the only one playing a career high in minutes. The other 4 starters are playing fewer MPG this season than last.

And, it truly is a team effort. All 5 of our starters are averaging between 4.8 and 9.1 rpg. Lillard just needs a 7 rebound game against Toronto and all 5 starters will be averaging at least 5 rpg. Can't remember the last time I saw that happen.

And, on a per/36 basis, our bench is doing even better. Our top 3 reb/36 players are Thomas Robinson (11.5 reb/36), Joel Freeland (9.5 reb/36) and Meyers Leonard (9.0 reb/36).

So no, no rebounding concerns here. It will be interesting to see if the Blazers can continue to rebound at this rate all season. If they can, it bodes extremely well for our play-off chances.

BNM

 

[Strenuus]

BNM pretty much shut the case.

 

[PapaG]

In regard to your initial question, you have to realize that nobody is even close to 50 rpg; Houston is leading the league at 47.6. The difference from us to Houston is almost as great as the difference from Houston to 50. So no, I don't see us reaching 50 team rpg.

When looking at total rebound numbers, however, one should remember that they are significantly impacted by pace and defense. Slow-paced teams can have great rebounding percentages, but may have lower totals, and even lower differentials, because there are fewer chances. Strong defensive teams will tend to have higher rebound totals since their opponents are shooting lower percentages, thereby leading to more defensive rebounding chances (of which an average team snares 74%)

That is the aspect of our team's rebounding that would require attention, if any. We are 3rd in the league in overall rebounding percentage at 52.5%, 5th in offensive rebounding at 29.4%, but tied for 11th in defensive rebounding percentage at 74.4% (slightly above average). We are also in the bottom third of the league in FG% allowed at 45.9%. If we are going to be a playoff team while being below average defensively, we will need to be excellent at retrieving the shots our opponents do miss.

What he said. Although I'd love it if the Blazers could get 100 rebounds a game.

Weird that this post got ignored, PortyPlatypus.

 

[PapaG]

BNM pretty much shut the case.

Platypus shut it down much earlier in the thread. BNM still won't admit that Houston and SAS were in the East during the '70s, though, so I'm not at all surprised.

 

[Strenuus]

Platypus shut it down much earlier in the thread. BNM still won't admit that Houston and SAS were in the East during the '70s, though, so I'm not at all surprised.

I saw Ptld's post, and I really liked it.

So as a tandem, they shut it down, really.

 

[mgb]

Once I make it back to a game you can count on 5 rebounds a game from me.

 

[Blazer Fanatic]

Nice work 'no-more-....'!

I'm not sure if you accounted for minutes played per game (MPG), or just felt it was insignificant. One could argue that they didn't play the same number of minutes per game in their previous career best, which would skew the results. Based on MPG, it looks like LA (+.223), Lillard (+.393), and Batum (+.721) all played more minutes in their previous career best which increased their rebounding differential, while Wes (-.047) and Lopez (-1.132) played fewer minutes, decreased their rebound differential. Wes was the exception in that his career best was not last season. So, for instance, LA would be looking at 9.3 RPG had he played the same number of minutes as his previous career best, and Lopez 6.7 RPG, and so on.

It would add another +0.2 for a net increase of +6.5 RPG for the starters.

Needless to say, your point is still quite valid.


I hashed this out with a well-known Blazer blogger regarding Portland leading the NBA during the pre-season in rebounding. It appeared to me, despite the 'pre-season' caveat, that we could say that they were much improved as a team in rebounding. The #1 rebounding team stat verified for me what my eyes were seeing, that this team had significantly improved over last season, no that they would remain #1. Of course, the theory was the "Lopez Effect". That taking up space and boxing out his man might not increase or draw equal to Hickson's rebounding numbers, but that team rebounding would increase. We're seeing that play out and it is fun to watch.

Edit: Portland is currently #2 in the NBA in rebounding percentage (52.2%), behind... Houston. They are 8th in total rebounds. Not gonna lie, that looks like a significant improvement over last season.

 

[magnifier661]

Well thanks for clearing things up BNM. Always nice to have reason trump concern!

 

[jlprk]

What?

Edit: Oh, the thread title.

(still don't get it)

 

[PtldPlatypus]

What he said. Although I'd love it if the Blazers could get 100 rebounds a game.

Weird that this post got ignored, PortyPlatypus.

Yeah, it happens. I'm used to having posts ignored by now. I'm not controversial or long-winded enough to attract much attention. It's cool though; it's not like I obsessively check up on every post I make--often first thing in the morning, even on weekends--in the vain hope that someone notices and appreciates it, thereby ascribing some measure of value, however small, to my otherwise meaningless existence.

Really, it's not like that at all...

 

[magnifier661]

Yeah, it happens. I'm used to having posts ignored by now. I'm not controversial or long-winded enough to attract much attention. It's cool though; it's not like I obsessively check up on every post I make--often first thing in the morning, even on weekends--in the vain hope that someone notices and appreciates it, thereby ascribing some measure of value, however small, to my otherwise meaningless existence.

Really, it's not like that at all...

I never ignore your duck billed beaver!

 

[jlprk]

Yeah, it happens. I'm used to having posts ignored by now. I'm not controversial or long-winded enough to attract much attention. It's cool though; it's not like I obsessively check up on every post I make--often first thing in the morning, even on weekends--in the vain hope that someone notices and appreciates it, thereby ascribing some measure of value, however small, to my otherwise meaningless existence.

Really, it's not like that at all...

Are you new here?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I never ignore your duck billed beaver!

That's good. My beaver loves attention.

 

[TBpup]

Lopez:
Current = 7.6 rpg
Previous Best = 5.6 rpg
Delta = +2.0 rpg

Aldridge:
Current = 9.1 rpg
Previous Best = 9.1 rpg
Delta = 0.0 rpg

Batum:
Current = 6.4 rpg
Previous Best = 5.6 rpg
Delta = +0.8 rpg

Matthews:
Current = 5.0 rpg
Previous Best = 3.4 rpg
Delta = +1.6 rpg

Lillard:
Current = 4.8 rpg
Previous Best = 2.9 rpg
Delta = +1.9 rpg

BNM...what is even better than the Delta is the percentage increase.

Lopez - 35% increase
Batum - 14% increase
Matthew - 47% increase
Lillard - 65% increase

I would not expect that rate to continue with better competition but it is great to see and I think a lot of that results from the Lopez affect. Haven't previous teammates of his rebounded at a higher level as well?

 

[Boob-No-More]

Yeah, it happens. I'm used to having posts ignored by now. I'm not controversial or long-winded enough to attract much attention. It's cool though; it's not like I obsessively check up on every post I make--often first thing in the morning, even on weekends--in the vain hope that someone notices and appreciates it, thereby ascribing some measure of value, however small, to my otherwise meaningless existence.

Really, it's not like that at all...

I never knew agreement could be so controversial. Well, unless someone who adds ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to the thread jumps in with the sole intent of stirring up shit.

I read your post, enjoyed it, found it informative and agree with it 100%. I didn't repeat, or dispute any of your points. I merely posted additional data to support the same conclusion. You talked about rebounding percentages, defensive field goal percentages and current season team rebounding leaders. I added historic data for league leading team rebounding numbers for the previous 4 seasons, and pointed out that all 5 of our starters are rebounding at, or significantly above their previous career bests. No controversy here, just additional data supporting the same conclusion.

BNM

 

[B-Roy]

Blazers are 2nd in rebound rate so far. Trailing only Howard and the Rockets. I'd say that's pretty damn good.

 

[magnifier661]

Blazers are 2nd in rebound rate so far. Trailing only Howard and the Rockets. I'd say that's pretty damn good.

I love when I look like a fool talking about anything negative about our Blazers!