Report: Blazers will have the worst starting 5 in the Western Conference (1 Viewer)

[magnifier661]

Oh hell no. I ain't crazy.

Pussy

 

[H.C.]

I don't think this is a real fair analysis.
Remember Stotts was brought in to maximize Aldridge.
I want to see how Stotts will adjust his offense to fit his personnel.
If he still runs this permiter oriented offense that jacks up a lot of 3's contested or not. The Blazers will offense will struggle. We saw it last year in every game Aldridge missed. Without the player the offense is designed around it's going to struggle.
Lets see how Stotts adjusts his offense to maximize players other than Aldridge now.
Before someone says "Blazers will be the worst team in the west this year."
He's supposed to be a genius. Lets see it.

 

[tlongII]

I don't think this is a real fair analysis.
Remember Stotts was brought in to maximize Aldridge.
I want to see how Stotts will adjust his offense to fit his personnel.
If he still runs this permiter oriented offense that jacks up a lot of 3's contested or not. The Blazers will offense will struggle. We saw it last year in every game Aldridge missed. Without the player the offense is designed around it's going to struggle.
Lets see how Stotts adjusts his offense to maximize players other than Aldridge now.
Before someone says "Blazers will be the worst team in the west this year."
He's supposed to be a genius. Lets see it.

Stotts designed the same type of offense around Dirk at Dallas. The problem he has now is no Dirk and no LaMarcus. I think he's going to have a hard time.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Stotts designed the same type of offense around Dirk at Dallas. The problem he has now is no Dirk and no LaMarcus. I think he's going to have a hard time.

I don't think the offense with the Mavericks was all that similar to what Stotts used here the last 3 years. We shot a lot of 3's. Dallas started Kidd and Terry at guards, backed up by Stevenson, Barea and Corey Brewer. Their SF was Marion and Caron Butler. Those guys were OK at shooting 3's but it was not exactly their forte'. They attacked the basket much better.

Sure both times he built his offense around his PF, but Dirk and LMA are not exactly the same type of player. So maybe he is a little more adaptable then we are giving him credit for.

 

[ripcityboy]

I don't think the offense with the Mavericks was all that similar to what Stotts used here the last 3 years. We shot a lot of 3's. Dallas started Kidd and Terry at guards, backed up by Stevenson, Barea and Corey Brewer. Their SF was Marion and Caron Butler. Those guys were OK at shooting 3's but it was not exactly their forte'. They attacked the basket much better.

Sure both times he built his offense around his PF, but Dirk and LMA are not exactly the same type of player. So maybe he is a little more adaptable then we are giving him credit for.

Dirk and LMA aren't the same type of player? that is true. LMA is black and Dirk idolizes Franz Beckenbauer. Other than that they could finish each others sentences on the court.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Dirk and LMA aren't the same type of player? that is true. LMA is black and Dirk idolizes Franz Beckenbauer. Other than that they could finish each others sentences on the court.

One could dribble out past the top of the key, one can not. One was a very good passer, one is average at best. One played like a 7' SF, the other played like a 7' stretch 4. The only thing they have in common is their step back turn around jumper is unblockable.

They are both great players, but I just think that Dirks ability to dribble made a huge difference for his teammates. (Especially at the end of games) To me LA and Dirk attack the basket differently, and the offenses were affected by it.

 

[Jade Falcon]

I stopped being impressed with Nic Batum half way through the season. Always hurt, always worn out....good riddance. Go back to France if you love playing for them so much. Let's see if Charlotte is as patient with your bullshit as we were here in Portland.

The Matthews loss probably hurts the most. He'll likely never be the same player he was before his injury. I'm still a fan of his for life though; such a great guy.

Aldridge....if he hadn't penned such a defensive "Fuck You" letter, I'd have more appreciation for him.

Lopez sucked fucking balls during the playoffs, and stopped being any kind of productive. I'll gladly take Plumlee over him. He seems to be far more aggressive.

 

[Draco]

If we finish in the top 8 in the WC, Stotts deserves COY. Otherwise, we need to finish 15th.

Any finish between 9th and 14th means we screwed the pooch.

If this team gets 9th I'll be very impressed. Means we keep our pick and have a great young core to build around. The West is a loaded bloodbath; to be that competitive for the playoffs while rebuilding is a feat. A couple of our young players will have to play as quality starters, some others key roles to give us that kind of success. We'd have a late lottery pick, a young playoff core, and cap room for two max contracts next summer.

Now if the team is 15th sure it means we get a better draft pick but our young players will likely not have even met nor exceed expectations. That may well be more harmful to this teams future than the benefit of a top pick.

 

[Orion Bailey]

If this team gets 9th I'll be very impressed. Means we keep our pick and have a great young core to build around. The West is a loaded bloodbath; to be that competitive for the playoffs while rebuilding is a feat. A couple of our young players will have to play as quality starters, some others key roles to give us that kind of success. We'd have a late lottery pick, a young playoff core, and cap room for two max contracts next summer.

Now if the team is 15th sure it means we get a better draft pick but our young players will likely not have even met nor exceed expectations. That may well be more harmful to this teams future than the benefit of a top pick.

Thanks, I've been trying to put it this way for a while. Everyone wants to see us get the lottery and to me that means we are way worse than we should be. If we lose the lottery pick, then we exceeded expectations and have a couple guys step up. We already have a bunch of lotto picks. One more isn't going to make or break this team compared to how they are coached and played this season.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Thanks, I've been trying to put it this way for a while. Everyone wants to see us get the lottery and to me that means we are way worse than we should be. If we lose the lottery pick, then we exceeded expectations and have a couple guys step up. We already have a bunch of lotto picks. One more isn't going to make or break this team compared to how they are coached and played this season.

Outside of Lillard who else do you see on this team that has true blue-chip potential? I see a ton of guys that project to be at best solid rotation players, with maybe the exception of Vonleh in a few years.

This team isn't going anywhere long term if everybody just meets optimistic expectations; they are talent poor when it comes to guys with true star potential and the only reliable way for a small market team like Portland to rectify that situation is through the draft (trades might or might not get us there and is hard to count on).

 

[Orion Bailey]

Outside of Lillard who else do you see on this team that has true blue-chip potential? I see a ton of guys that project to be at best solid rotation players, with maybe the exception of Vonleh in a few years.

This team isn't going anywhere long term if everybody just meets optimistic expectations; they are talent poor when it comes to guys with true star potential and the only reliable way for a small market team like Portland to rectify that situation is through the draft (trades might or might not get us there and is hard to count on).

I never said as is. I just think taking a couple of our guys at the trade deadline to bring in a star is a way better move long term than having a crappy core to get another lottery pick.
We have a bunch of lottery picks. Again. Tell me why your certain this next lottery pick will be a for sure blue chip player? Nothing is certain and we can get a lottery pick who doesn't even pan out in the NBA (cause that's never happened). However a veteran All star is proven.

Id much rather see this team battle for 8 or 9th spot with a couple break out guys, then trade a couple guys not working out with cap space and go after a big timer at the trade deadline. Again, the season is early, moves can still happen.

The lottery pick in my opinion is not nearly as valuable right now to the Blazers as many seem to think.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Were Parker and Ginobili viewed as "blue-chip potential" players before they became that? Klay Thompson? Rip Hamilton?

Yes, most title winners of late have had multiple hall-of-famers; we're not going to be able to follow the Heat or Lakers' model, nobody how much we might want to. Fact is, we have to pursue the exception in order to accomplish something exceptional. Whether it be hitting on a generational player in the lottery, or building a group that synergizes to be greater than the sum of its parts, any title team in Portland is going to require an insane amount of luck, for the reasons that you and others have detailed previously. That being the case, I would rather bank on the players that we already have outperforming expectations, as contrasted with hoping that everyone on the team plays terribly.

 

[magnifier661]

Outside of Lillard who else do you see on this team that has true blue-chip potential? I see a ton of guys that project to be at best solid rotation players, with maybe the exception of Vonleh in a few years.

This team isn't going anywhere long term if everybody just meets optimistic expectations; they are talent poor when it comes to guys with true star potential and the only reliable way for a small market team like Portland to rectify that situation is through the draft (trades might or might not get us there and is hard to count on).

hmmm blue chip potential? I would possibly put Leonard and CJ in the borderline all-star potential. Definitely in the Rudy Gay and LaFrenz in their prime level. Vonleh could become an all-star if he progresses to potential.

The key situation would be CJ becoming like a Jason Terry or Vinnie Johnson type bench player, with Leonard being that Lambier or LaFrenz role player and Vonleh being a Chris Webber type. Then we could attract a 3rd superstar type.

 

[oldmangrouch]

If this team gets 9th I'll be very impressed. Means we keep our pick and have a great young core to build around. The West is a loaded bloodbath; to be that competitive for the playoffs while rebuilding is a feat. A couple of our young players will have to play as quality starters, some others key roles to give us that kind of success. We'd have a late lottery pick, a young playoff core, and cap room for two max contracts next summer.

Now if the team is 15th sure it means we get a better draft pick but our young players will likely not have even met nor exceed expectations. That may well be more harmful to this teams future than the benefit of a top pick.

I understand what you are saying, but on a practical level I disagree.

To finish on the fringe of the play-off race, the Blazers will have to ride our decent young vets (eg Davis, Aminu, Henderson) at the expense of developing Leonard/CJ/Vonleh. Developing those guys means letting them play through their mistakes and accepting the short-term pain. There is also the sad fact that maximizing wins this season means Dame will be near the top of the league in minutes played. I absolutely DO NOT want to see that! His career is worth more than a few extra wins in 15-16.

Over-achievement is fun, but not sustainable. I would rather stink for one year and then show some solid, sustainable progress.

 

[oldmangrouch]

The key situation would be CJ becoming like a Jason Terry or Vinnie Johnson type bench player, with Leonard being that Lambier or LaFrenz role player and Vonleh being a Chris Webber type. Then we could attract a 3rd superstar type.

I completely agree....and that means letting them PLAY and take their lumps. Playing to maximize wins in the short-term is inconsistent with player development.

 

[magnifier661]

I completely agree....and that means letting them PLAY and take their lumps. Playing to maximize wins in the short-term is inconsistent with player development.

I think there will be plenty of playing time for development of all the players I just mentioned. Only Dame will be the player with over 30 minutes a game. Hopefully he is still in the 35 minute and under mark though. Don't want to wear him out.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I never said as is. I just think taking a couple of our guys at the trade deadline to bring in a star is a way better move long term than having a crappy core to get another lottery pick.
We have a bunch of lottery picks. Again. Tell me why your certain this next lottery pick will be a for sure blue chip player? Nothing is certain and we can get a lottery pick who doesn't even pan out in the NBA (cause that's never happened). However a veteran All star is proven.

Let me desconstruct this a little bit. A. I don't think it's likely you can take a few of our role-players and parley them into a trade for an All-star (maybe a former All-star on the downside of his career or a headcase). B. I don't think it's a certainty that we'll draft a blue-chipper in the next draft. All I'm talking about is playing the percentages, and I'll take a 20% chance over a 5-10% chance any day, every day.

Id much rather see this team battle for 8 or 9th spot with a couple break out guys, then trade a couple guys not working out with cap space and go after a big timer at the trade deadline. Again, the season is early, moves can still happen.

The lottery pick in my opinion is not nearly as valuable right now to the Blazers as many seem to think.

It's more valuable than no pick at all, especially for a team in the talent acquisition phase. Hell maybe the pick never even contributes to future (theoretical) playoff runs, but it's still an asset that does us more good to have than it does to surrender to another team.

 

[tlongII]

I can't believe people are talking about us being a fringe playoff team in here with our roster. It is not possible.

 

[BlazerWookee]

Oh, and "Report" lol...

 

[HomerLovesKoolAid]

"Michelob Guy" LOL

 

[Orion Bailey]

I completely agree....and that means letting them PLAY and take their lumps. Playing to maximize wins in the short-term is inconsistent with player development.

Why cant you have both? This team certainly could.

Let me desconstruct this a little bit. A. I don't think it's likely you can take a few of our role-players and parley them into a trade for an All-star (maybe a former All-star on the downside of his career or a headcase). B. I don't think it's a certainty that we'll draft a blue-chipper in the next draft. All I'm talking about is playing the percentages, and I'll take a 20% chance over a 5-10% chance any day, every day.



It's more valuable than no pick at all, especially for a team in the talent acquisition phase. Hell maybe the pick never even contributes to future (theoretical) playoff runs, but it's still an asset that does us more good to have than it does to surrender to another team.

Let me break your post down, since I wasn't clear about a couple things even though it has been beat to death. No a couple guys that don't fit wont get us an all star, but Combine it with our cap space to take on a contract? There are options here, its not black and white. And it all depends on the team we are dealing with and what they are planning for their future.

Second, wouldn't trading a couple guys at the deadline with cap space for a proven all star be a hell of a lot more than a 20% chance he works out? I know its better than the 5-10% you are assuming.

I never said the pick has no value, I only said that for the Blazers RIGHT NOW, it is not near as valuable as it normally would be.

Does that put us a bit closer in line?

 

[Nikolokolus]

Let me break your post down, since I wasn't clear about a couple things even though it has been beat to death. No a couple guys that don't fit wont get us an all star, but Combine it with our cap space to take on a contract? There are options here, its not black and white. And it all depends on the team we are dealing with and what they are planning for their future.

Second, wouldn't trading a couple guys at the deadline with cap space for a proven all star be a hell of a lot more than a 20% chance he works out? I know its better than the 5-10% you are assuming.

I never said the pick has no value, I only said that for the Blazers RIGHT NOW, it is not near as valuable as it normally would be.

Does that put us a bit closer in line?

Who are these theoretical teams in such a hurry to dump a "proven All-Star?"

 

[Orion Bailey]

Who are these theoretical teams in such a hurry to dump a "proven All-Star?"

Gees man, that's the unknown. Who's your proven lotto pick next year who will take us to the promised land?

Almost every year there isa disgruntled all star looking to move. Maybe its DMC next year> Maybe its Durant ( I know, both long shots). Maybe its Derek Rose. Who knows. But to just say it wont happen so why bother trying to find another all star?
Lotteries are a crap shoot as someone else pointed out. All Star vets are more a better odds bet.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Gees man, that's the unknown. Who's your proven lotto pick next year who will take us to the promised land?

Almost every year there isa disgruntled all star looking to move. Maybe its DMC next year> Maybe its Durant ( I know, both long shots). Maybe its Derek Rose. Who knows. But to just say it wont happen so why bother trying to find another all star?
Lotteries are a crap shoot as someone else pointed out. All Star vets are more a better odds bet.

That bit I bolded is the crux of the whole deal. What has a higher probability of happening? Gambling getting a really good player in the top 7 of the lottery or hoping you can somehow trade for a true All-NBA caliber player. If history is any guide then it's the former, not the latter.

 

[Orion Bailey]

That bit I bolded is the crux of the whole deal. What has a higher probability of happening? Gambling getting a really good player in the top 7 of the lottery or hoping you can somehow trade for a true All-NBA caliber player. If history is any guide then it's the former, not the latter.

The former for franchise type players maybe, but those are precious few and still are not sure bets (LBJ), but Portland's history has shown we can attract quality players that help the team become elite, but they wont come unless the upswing is massive agreed. With that said, I beleive our team currently has enough potential that if it goes right, we have all the pieces minus that 2nd main All Star.

 

[magnifier661]

That bit I bolded is the crux of the whole deal. What has a higher probability of happening? Gambling getting a really good player in the top 7 of the lottery or hoping you can somehow trade for a true All-NBA caliber player. If history is any guide then it's the former, not the latter.

What pick was the greatest Blazer in history picked at?

 

[oldmangrouch]

What pick was the greatest Blazer in history picked at?

Define "greatest". Walton was an arse - but he was the #1 pick. Lucas was one of the first guys picked in the dispersal draft. Roy and Dame were high picks (and yes, LMA)

I assume you are referring to Clyde and Porter? We got lucky with Clyde, and Terry was a true sleeper. Those 2 data points don't prove the draft is just random. Higher picks improve your odds. I can't believe anybody would contest that.

 

[magnifier661]

Define "greatest". Walton was an arse - but he was the #1 pick. Lucas was one of the first guys picked in the dispersal draft. Roy and Dame were high picks (and yes, LMA)

I assume you are referring to Clyde and Porter? We got lucky with Clyde, and Terry was a true sleeper. Those 2 data points don't prove the draft is just random. Higher picks improve your odds. I can't believe anybody would contest that.

Bowie was 2nd and Oden was first

 

[oldmangrouch]

Yes, Bowie was the #2 pick. Also picked in the top 5 that year were Hakeem, Barkley, and some guy named Jordan.

Phooey. This is pointless. The ship is sinking. You can sit in your cabin and hope for a big name FA to save you. I'll jump in the lifeboat and start rowing.

 

[magnifier661]

Yes, Bowie was the #2 pick. Also picked in the top 5 that year were Hakeem, Barkley, and some guy named Jordan.

Phooey. This is pointless. The ship is sinking. You can sit in your cabin and hope for a big name FA to save you. I'll jump in the lifeboat and start rowing.

The league has changed bro. It's not about the market, it's about winning. Players are making bank now, so endorsements aren't as important to them, and a superstar gets most their endorsements on national sponsors anyway (look at Durant, Dame and Westbriok for examples).

The ship hasn't even sunk, we just started building a solid one. Go ahead and jump off and find a team like Minny, Sacramento or Philly that have all lived in the lottery years. Works great for them.