Report (Quick): Oden will not be extended

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EL PRESIDENTE said:
Yup. That would have been fair, I would have preferred 5 years...5 years/48 million would have been ok. I think we'll end up paying closer to Horford money next summer.
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I really doubt that. You aren't taking into account the next CBA with Stern talking about reducing contracts by upwards of 30% (reduction of existing contracts is still on the table). My guess is that if restricted free agency works anything close to what it works like now and those new contract figures are accurate my guess is that we'll see some team offer him maybe 9 million per year max. Don't forget he could miss at least 30 games this season due to his tendinitis, which only further underscores how fragile he can be.
 
Well, they look bad for letting him get to RFA territory (Kwame Brown anyone). We have to keep him, there is no argument that can convince me otherwise barring a career ending injury. Should have offered him a contract to lock him up but not overpay him and take the criticism. total franchise meltdown if for some reason the blazers don't match the offer next sumer.
 
Nikolokolus said:
I really doubt that. You aren't taking into account the next CBA with Stern talking about reducing contracts by upwards of 30% (reduction of existing contracts is still on the table). My guess is that if restricted free agency works anything close to what it works like now and those new contract figures are accurate my guess is that we'll see some team offer him maybe 9 million per year max. Don't forget he could miss at least 30 games this season due to his tendinitis, which only further underscores how fragile he can be.
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They'll have a lockout before the players association agrees to a 30% reduction in money.
 
EL PRESIDENTE said:
Well, they look bad for letting him get to RFA territory (Kwame Brown anyone). We have to keep him, there is no argument that can convince me otherwise barring a career ending injury. Should have offered him a contract to lock him up but not overpay him and take the criticism. total franchise meltdown if for some reason the blazers don't match the offer next sumer.
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I don't think Greg wanted a subrate contract. The two sides were never close. And really why does the team "look bad?" for not extending him? My guess is that the national media would have laid into the Blazers for being pie-in-the-sky or wishcasting, instead of being financially prudent and letting him actually earn an extension instead of hoping against hope that he'll eventually pan out.
 
I think 9 million is the starting point for any offers next summer for Oden, injury or not. He's a big center that still has the potential to be a center piece. I think if the blazers offered him that, likely would have taken it now just to put everyone at ease...on the open market, you never know what's up. Its not like they're going to SAVE any money by letting him be a RFA.
 
EL PRESIDENTE said:
They'll have a lockout before the players association agrees to a 30% reduction in money.
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Yes they will ... and then when the player's union cracks after 6 months or a year of not drawing a paycheck (especially the middle of the pack earners that make up the bulk of the league) they'll bend over and take whatever the owners want and ask for another.
 
Nikolokolus said:
I don't think Greg wanted a subrate contract. The two sides were never close. And really why does the team "look bad?" for not extending him? My guess is that the national media would have laid into the Blazers for being pie-in-the-sky or wishcasting, instead of being financially prudent and letting him actually earn an extension instead of hoping against hope that he'll eventually pan out.
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I don't think $9/mil a year is subrate, its actually quite generous considering the time he's been out. Its a gamble based on his potential contribution. The contract AFTER that is his big money contract. I still think a team will offer lots to try and get him from Portland.
 
EL PRESIDENTE said:
I think 9 million is the starting point for any offers next summer for Oden, injury or not. He's a big center that still has the potential to be a center piece. I think if the blazers offered him that, likely would have taken it now just to put everyone at ease...on the open market, you never know what's up. Its not like they're going to SAVE any money by letting him be a RFA.
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I don't think I'm getting my point across? Contracts are not going to operate under the same rules. We don't know the specifics, but they will certainly be lower, or even partially guaranteed. Greg is going to be on the league's insurable contracts exception list, meaning if he breaks down yet again team's won't be able to recoup 80% of his salary if he goes down for a full season or has to take a medical retirement. Secondly, there's no money to "save" because Greg was never interested in taking a cut rate contract extension.
 
EL PRESIDENTE said:
I don't think $9/mil a year is subrate, its actually quite generous considering the time he's been out. Its a gamble based on his potential contribution. The contract AFTER that is his big money contract. I still think a team will offer lots to try and get him from Portland.
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Given Greg's fragility, you're right, 9 million per year probably isn't subrate, it's probably overpaying.

I don't think you get how scared off teams probably are by his injuries. teams don't throw huge money at an injury riddled big men? They might take a flier on him If the Blazers show little interest in matching or otherwise retaining him and I could see somebody throwing a larger amount of money over a shorter term (maybe 20ish million for two years?) or maybe even 8 million to 9 million for 4 years with a team option for the last year, but this notion that there's this huge group of GMs salivating over the chance to throw stupid money at him just doesn't seem likely.
 
I don't see this as any failing on the blazers' part. Greg's agents both said that they think of Greg as a dominant big man, and they think they'll be able to show that this season. He sees himself as all-star caliber and his agents aren't going to let him sign anything close to as low as the Blazers (or any other team) would offer right now.

Greg thinks he can get the max, or at least LMA-level $$ if he has a good season. And if he does have a healthy, Greg-caliber season, he might be worth it. But Cho's not going to offer close to that, Greg and his agents agree, so they're gambling that they have a good season and PA pays later. Or someone else does.
 
Nikolokolus said:
I don't think Greg wanted a subrate contract. The two sides were never close. And really why does the team "look bad?" for not extending him? My guess is that the national media would have laid into the Blazers for being pie-in-the-sky or wishcasting, instead of being financially prudent and letting him actually earn an extension instead of hoping against hope that he'll eventually pan out.
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I don't subscribe to that thinking, but I can see how the national perception could be skewed that way. Oden is the first #1 pick since Kwame Brown to not be extended. Regardless of the reason why, that fact is out there for consumption, and could reinforce to outside observers that Portland regrets making the pick. If they believed in Greg, why wouldn't they want to lock him up (or something along those lines)?
 
EL PRESIDENTE said:
I don't think $9/mil a year is subrate, its actually quite generous considering the time he's been out. Its a gamble based on his potential contribution. The contract AFTER that is his big money contract. I still think a team will offer lots to try and get him from Portland.
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I posted this in another thread, but I can see Dan Gilbert overpaying for Oden to try and get some Buckeye fans in the seats. Cleveland is going to be terrible this year, and Gilbert will have to do something to charge up the fanbase. If Oden comes back and plays an effective 50 games, I can see Gilbert offering him a near-max contract. At that point, would Portland match? I doubt it.
 
Nikolokolus said:
I don't think I'm getting my point across? Contracts are not going to operate under the same rules. We don't know the specifics, but they will certainly be lower, or even partially guaranteed. Greg is going to be on the league's insurable contracts exception list, meaning if he breaks down yet again team's won't be able to recoup 80% of his salary if he goes down for a full season or has to take a medical retirement. Secondly, there's no money to "save" because Greg was never interested in taking a cut rate contract extension.
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Fine. Just let it be known that the market will set the price, not the Blazers and we'll still probably end up paying more or even possibly losing Oden if the price is just too high to justify.
 
BGrantFan said:
I posted this in another thread, but I can see Dan Gilbert overpaying for Oden to try and get some Buckeye fans in the seats. Cleveland is going to be terrible this year, and Gilbert will have to do something to charge up the fanbase. If Oden comes back and plays an effective 50 games, I can see Gilbert offering him a near-max contract. At that point, would Portland match? I doubt it.
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Or Oklahoma City. Presti could make Cho his bitch once again. They need help down low pretty badly.
 
There are a few teams that will have quite a bit of cap space who would offer Oden a max or near max deal.

Indiana- Home state
Cleavland- Ohio State fans. Need redemption after losing lebronze.
Knicks- crowded down low but if they miss out on Melo.
Oklahoma City- has cap space needs center. Oden + Durant? yikes.
Memphis- how the ZBOEC could kill us.
Nets- already have lopez but russian billionaire wants a marquee marketing machine.
 
Damn, can you imagine if OKC did sign him. Ouch, that would suck.
 
EL PRESIDENTE said:
There are a few teams that will have quite a bit of cap space who would offer Oden a max or near max deal.

Indiana- Home state
Cleavland- Ohio State fans. Need redemption after losing lebronze.
Knicks- crowded down low but if they miss out on Melo.
Oklahoma City- has cap space needs center. Oden + Durant? yikes.
Memphis- how the ZBOEC could kill us.
Nets- already have lopez but russian billionaire wants a marquee marketing machine.
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Oden is not even close to being a max player ... no chance in hell.
 
oh yes. will never ever ever happen. ever.

It doesn't matter if he's a "max player" or not. If a team wants him, they'll offer what it takes to get him or to get him away from portland. Money isn't indicative of performance, but need or current conditions. Last summer, who would have thought all of those insane contracts would have been made.
 
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EL PRESIDENTE said:
There are a few teams that will have quite a bit of cap space who would offer Oden a max or near max deal.

Indiana- Home state
Cleavland- Ohio State fans. Need redemption after losing lebronze.
Knicks- crowded down low but if they miss out on Melo.
Oklahoma City- has cap space needs center. Oden + Durant? yikes.
Memphis- how the ZBOEC could kill us.
Nets- already have lopez but russian billionaire wants a marquee marketing machine.
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Indiana - Roy Hibbert
Cleveland - Don't see it
Knicks - Carmelo anthony
OKC - Aint happening(Big $ to Durant/Westbrook/Green/etc)
Memphis - Just no...lol + Marc Gasol
Nets - Lopez/Favors

Yeah, stop worrying.
 
some max contract or "close to max" contract players:

Rashard Lewis
Yao Ming
Michael Redd
ZBO
Gilbert Arenas
AK47
Joe Johnson
Kenyon Martin
Elton Brand
Peja
 
RoyToy said:
Indiana - Roy Hibbert
Cleveland - Don't see it
Knicks - Carmelo anthony
OKC - Aint happening(Big $ to Durant/Westbrook/Green/etc)
Memphis - Just no...lol + Marc Gasol
Nets - Lopez/Favors

Yeah, stop worrying.
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This team has shown a propensity to wildly fuck up salary cap situations. Should have to worry. At a minimum, like I said, the highest reasonable offer we would have made now is the STARTING point for next summer in the best case scenario. Worst case is we lose Oden.
 
EL PRESIDENTE said:
oh yes. will never ever ever happen. ever.

It doesn't matter if he's a "max player" or not. If a team wants him, they'll offer what it takes to get him or to get him away from portland. Money isn't indicative of performance, but need or current conditions. Last summer, who would have thought all of those insane contracts would have been made.
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Simple answer to that. Tons of teams cleared the decks just on the outside chance that they might cash in on the best free agent class ever, when it became apparent that there were going to be some losers in that game of "talent musical chairs" there were too many dollars left chasing too little talent and it became a matter of use it or lose it. I also think a lot of teams offered these contracts with the thought in the back of their mind that when the new CBA kicks in, that they either A) might be able to retroactively cut these contracts down, or B) with a long lockout there's a full year of potentially not having to pay out on them.

In the next free agency period there aren't going to be nearly as many teams with cap room, the contracts are going to be significantly smaller, and the whole "toxic contract" notion is a Paul Allen move, there are only a handful of owners in the league that can absorb the kind of risk that accompanies giving Greg a near max deal when that contract will be un-insurable, and if it comes down to trying to outbid the Blazers, that's an awfully weird game of chicken to engage in with the league's richest owner, especially when offering a huge deal locks up your money for as much as a week.

With only 82 games in 3+ years and potentially another 50 game season on his resume' it's going to be awfully tough to justify throwing huge money at him regardless of the kind of season he ends up having.

I think you're fretting needlessly, and again it's not a matter of locking him up early because the Blazers would only be bidding against themselves and Greg's reps made it pretty clear they weren't willing to take an injury discount on an extension, so the point is moot anyway.
 
EL PRESIDENTE said:
This team has shown a propensity to wildly fuck up salary cap situations. Should have to worry. At a minimum, like I said, the highest reasonable offer we would have made now is the STARTING point for next summer in the best case scenario. Worst case is we lose Oden.
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Not sure how this team has "wildly" fucked up salary cap situations. I think you're "wildly" over exaggerating.

Also, there's too many unanswered questions to make a claim like that on potential contract numbers.
 
Harden is a 2, Jeff Green is a combo forward, they're going to want to save some money for Westbrook, and I think they see Aldrich as being serviceable -- and cheap for now.
 
BTW, here is the 2011 free agent class.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=FreeAgents-10-11

Next year's FA class is EXTREMELY weak. A guy like Oden WILL get overpaid due to teams having cap space and not that many options.

Notable:

unrestricted: Jason Richardson, ZBO, Carmello, Yao,
restricted: Marc Gasol, Greg Oden, Jeff Green

IMO, Greg Oden will be the #2 Free Agent target next summer.
 
Who saw Wesley Matthews as a 9 million dollar man? And there's a question that someone won't overpay for Oden? Is it a risk? Sure. So are a lot of signings. Pretty easy to sell a fan base on taking a chance on a big guy like Greg.
 
If Greg has a healthy rest of the season giving you somewhere between his rookie year and the start of this year, he is $60m contract, I believe, if he has a healthy but erratic year, he is a $50m contract, I think, if he comes like gangbusters and kills everything in sight, he is close to a Max. While I think Greg has the talent to do it - I do not think he will this year, simply because of the long absence from the floor.

My gut feeling is that we will see Greg getting somewhere between $50m to $60m next year - and he will continue to play for the Blazers in this range. At this point, I just do not see how the Blazers can pay him that without seeing him going through the season and staying healthy. It was a wise decision by the Blazers - and a good one for Greg as well. Let's just hope the kid is healthy for the year and the Blazers show him the love next year by offering him somewhere in the $50-60 first before he needs to go fish for FA offers.
 
Nikolokolus said:
Harden is a 2, Jeff Green is a combo forward, they're going to want to save some money for Westbrook, and I think they see Aldrich as being serviceable -- and cheap for now.
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If Harden is 2, Durant as 3. They don't need Green at all, they have a few duplicating swingmen. And Alrdrich is a good backup center.
 
RoyToy said:
Not sure how this team has "wildly" fucked up salary cap situations. I think you're "wildly" over exaggerating.

Also, there's too many unanswered questions to make a claim like that on potential contract numbers.
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Waited 2 years of holding bad contracts to have cap space for "one or two max players" and ended up with Andre Miller. Plus the whole RLEC thing.
 
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