Report (Quick): Oden will not be extended

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EL PRESIDENTE said:
Waited 2 years of holding bad contracts to have cap space for "one or two max players" and ended up with Andre Miller. Plus the whole RLEC thing.
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It was one max player at best and the Darius Miles plan ended up not panning out. I don't see how the Blazers can be faulted there.

By not using the RLEC they got that money in the off-season to spend. No difference, unless you wanted to trade for Jefferson/Carter/Wallace/Dre at the trade deadline and give up Batum.
 
Also, unless you know what the new CBA will look like it's pretty much pointless to speculate about next year especially when there will be a lockout.
 
RoyToy said:
Also, unless you know what the new CBA will look like it's pretty much pointless to speculate about next year especially when there will be a lockout.
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Which is why Oden and Green are the only RFA from their class of note? Everyone else has gotten their contracts already. Point being, I don't think the Blazers really have much of an advantage to wait and let other teams dictate how much Oden is worth, when in my opinion, of the next FA pool next summer, he's rated #2 for the teams listed due to his potential impact still. If there was a more talented free agent class and less teams with available money to sign, then maybe waiting MAY have some kind of advantage that we aren't smart enough to know about.
 
I just don't care much for letting others set the value on what could potentially be the top free agent. I see allowing smaller guys to hit RFA. But many here wanted LMA to hit RFA, and I honestly think we'd have been looking at him with another 5-10 million tacked onto his current deal if that were the case.
But, again, this comes from both sides. Oden's camp knows they could lose out on money if he plays well. I guess it's a risk they are willing to take o fhim being healthy, depending on what might have been offered by Cho and co.
 
RR7 said:
I just don't care much for letting others set the value on what could potentially be the top free agent. I see allowing smaller guys to hit RFA. But many here wanted LMA to hit RFA, and I honestly think we'd have been looking at him with another 5-10 million tacked onto his current deal if that were the case.
But, again, this comes from both sides. Oden's camp knows they could lose out on money if he plays well. I guess it's a risk they are willing to take o fhim being healthy, depending on what might have been offered by Cho and co.
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I don't think it matters at all if he plays well or not. He's been scouted extensively and we know what the ceiling is and its really high. Only downer is the injuries. If he's healthy he can easily take a lotto team to the playoffs and beyond IMO. Nothing has changed as to his potential and he's still a strong force in the middle.
 
EL PRESIDENTE said:
Which is why Oden and Green are the only RFA from their class of note? Everyone else has gotten their contracts already. Point being, I don't think the Blazers really have much of an advantage to wait and let other teams dictate how much Oden is worth, when in my opinion, of the next FA pool next summer, he's rated #2 for the teams listed due to his potential impact still.
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I have no idea about the Green situation, but all I know is Greg Oden has played in 82 games in 3+ years and has had two major knee surgeries. I don't think any other player that has been extended from the 2007 class has that on their NBA resume.
 
RoyToy said:
I have no idea about the Green situation, but all I know is Greg Oden has played in 82 games in 3+ years and has had two major knee surgeries. I don't think any other player that has been extended from the 2007 class has that on their NBA resume.
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Doesn't matter.

I think teams with cap space will be willing to roll the dice on paying Oden versus a Yao Ming or Jason Richardson. Of the available players, I still think he's right up there after mello. We just have to wonder how much and how high the Blazers are willing to go to keep Oden. If a team offers him a max contract, will the Blazers match? I would think they would have to....so no worries from that end. We'll just be overpaying him a few more million than we could have had we offered a fair or slight overpay now.
 
EL PRESIDENTE said:
If Harden is 2, Durant as 3. They don't need Green at all, they have a few duplicating swingmen. And Alrdrich is a good backup center.
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Which is why they aren't offering him an extension ... especially when Ibaka appears to be a better option longterm at the 4 spot.
 
Nikolokolus said:
Which is why they aren't offering him an extension ... especially when Ibaka appears to be a better option longterm at the 4 spot.
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Yes. So it would make sense for them to offer lots of money to sign Oden. Just the fact of having Westbrook + Durant and Oden would be worth it. And they should still have cap space after that too. Why would OKC NOT offer Oden a big contract?
 
EL PRESIDENTE said:
Doesn't matter.

I think teams with cap space will be willing to roll the dice on paying Oden versus a Yao Ming or Jason Richardson. Of the available players, I still think he's right up there after mello. We just have to wonder how much and how high the Blazers are willing to go to keep Oden. If a team offers him a max contract, will the Blazers match? I would think they would have to....so no worries from that end. We'll just be overpaying him a few more million than we could have had we offered a fair or slight overpay now.
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Was it not said in this thread Oden and his agents would rather not extend with the team and play this season out so he can get more money?

This whole the Blazers should have offered Oden $8M a year and keep him on the cheap just isn't reality. It wasn't an option.
 
RoyToy said:
Was it not said in this thread Oden and his agents would rather not extend with the team and play this season out so he can get more money?

This whole the Blazers should have offered Oden $8M a year and keep him on the cheap just isn't reality. It wasn't an option.
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If you offered the right level you wouldn't have to worry about that. There is a number that the blazers could have hit and Oden would have signed on that line. And as I stated, that is the MINIMUM they'll have to pay next year. I think somewhere in the 9-10 million a year range would have gotten it done.
 
EL PRESIDENTE said:
If you offered the right level you wouldn't have to worry about that. There is a number that the blazers could have hit and Oden would have signed on that line. And as I stated, that is the MINIMUM they'll have to pay next year. I think somewhere in the 9-10 million a year range would have gotten it done.
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That is all speculation on your part. At best.
 
EL PRESIDENTE said:
If you offered the right level you wouldn't have to worry about that. There is a number that the blazers could have hit and Oden would have signed on that line. And as I stated, that is the MINIMUM they'll have to pay next year. I think somewhere in the 9-10 million a year range would have gotten it done.
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You don't think Oden (or his agent) knows that the max he might have been offered this summer is the minimum he would have been offered next? What would have been the incentive for Oden to accept an extension if it had been offered?
 
PtldPlatypus said:
You don't think Oden (or his agent) knows that the max he might have been offered this summer is the minimum he would have been offered next? What would have been the incentive for Oden to accept an extension if it had been offered?
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Security. Plus the new CBA may work in either direction, so getting a contract under old rules might help them too.
 
EL PRESIDENTE said:
Security. Plus the new CBA may work in either direction, so getting a contract under old rules might help them too.
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Which means getting a contract under the new rules might not help them, which means it might help us. So what you're saying is that not extending him now could be a good thing.
 
Not sure I buy the security reasoning considering he knows for a fact he'll get at least like $5M a year if all goes wrong. I'd call that more than security.
 
PtldPlatypus said:
Which means getting a contract under the new rules might not help them, which means it might help us. So what you're saying is that not extending him now could be a good thing.
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I think the likelihood is not so. I think the contract we end up giving him will not be as good as negotiating now since there will really not be any negotiations on the part of the Blazers. Basically wait until a team with cap space offers Oden as much as they want and the Blazers match or not.

Its a lot of unanswered questions. I'd rather the blazers offer him something slightly higher than he should get and just roll with it.
 
EL PRESIDENTE said:
I think the likelihood is not so. I think the contract we end up giving him will not be as good as negotiating now since there will really not be any negotiations on the part of the Blazers. Basically wait until a team with cap space offers Oden as much as they want and the Blazers match or not.

Its a lot of unanswered questions. I'd rather the blazers offer him something slightly higher than he should get and just roll with it.
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How hard can this be? Contracts are going to be considerably "lighter" under the new CBA, a max contract could be downwards of 30% lower than they currently are, ergo even if the rules of free agency and restricted free agency are still mostly the same, it's doubtful that whatever offer he might receive after the impending lockout would be higher than the Blazers bidding against themselves now.

You've got the chicken little thing going pretty hard here.
 
Nikolokolus said:
How hard can this be? Contracts are going to be considerably "lighter" under the new CBA, a max contract could be downwards of 30% lower than they currently are, ergo even if the rules of free agency and restricted free agency are still mostly the same, it's doubtful that whatever offer he might receive after the impending lockout would be higher than the Blazers bidding against themselves now.

You've got the chicken little thing going pretty hard here.
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Why is it doubtful? Again, look at the field and show me who besides Carmello Anthony is going to be pursued as hotly as Oden would be? Teams will still have the money. Its just kind of odd when a team does not extend an offer to their free agents and lets them become RFA. The end result is usually not a cost savings, but matching toxic offers or letting them walk.

With not signing Oden, there is a chance he does not return to the Blazers next season. If he was locked up, he will be back for sure. Simple as that. I just like the peace of mind that he's locked up instead of worrying if the Thunder offer him max money and Paul Allen decides he doesn't want to pay $13 million a year for a guy who's missed a lot of games.
 
I suspect that Rich Cho has a fairly good handle on what Greg's real market value is, having just come from OKC. The bottom line here is that I think you and I have a different opinion about what Greg's actual value is around the league. Personally I think it's quite low due to all of the red flags surrouding his durability. If it was strictly a case of Greg taking extra long to develop, or if he was a playing 60 games a year consistently then it would have been a much more cut and dried decision; he'd be making Al Horford, Joachim Noah money (12 mil per year). Instead the Blazers are looking at this from the perspective that maybe Oden's body can't handle the rigors of the NBA, his extension would have been uninsurable and if Greg really does miss another full year or more of games his contract could cripple this team for years.

There are only a few of ways I see this playing out. 1) Greg comes back and has a mostly healthy and productive season and some team offers him what he's worth, but that will still be slightly less than a full max deal (whatever that will be under the new CBA) and the Blazers match, 2) he gets hurt again or massively underperforms, either of which kills his value and he becomes the kind of player that some team takes a flier on for a couple of years at the mid-level exception and the Blazers probably match or the Blazers construct a 2 or 3 year deal themselves. Or 3) he suffers an injury that puts his entire career in jeopardy and the Blazers decide they've had enough and make other plans for the longterm and let him become somebody else's problem.

Whatever happens the Blazers will have made a sound and conscientious decision IMO.
 
If Greg comes back mostly healthy and productive, he could get a max offer. Its a no lose situation for many of these teams really....they're either not going anywhere (Cleavland, Indiana) and need some marketing/jersey sales or they have tons of cap space and need a big guy and are willing to throw money around (OKC).

Letting other teams determine how much you pay your FA is not conscientious, especially when he is billed as a franchise, once in a generation type of talent. For mid level talent, its ok, but for a player that COULD conceivably get max money, its downright stupid.
 
EL PRESIDENTE said:
If Greg comes back mostly healthy and productive, he could get a max offer. Its a no lose situation for many of these teams really....they're either not going anywhere (Cleavland, Indiana) and need some marketing/jersey sales or they have tons of cap space and need a big guy and are willing to throw money around (OKC).

Letting other teams determine how much you pay your FA is not conscientious, especially when he is billed as a franchise, once in a generation type of talent. For mid level talent, its ok, but for a player that COULD conceivably get max money, its downright stupid.
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No lose? A max deal on a player who can't have his contract insured? There's plenty to lose
 
Yeah, they're better giving their money to Zach Randolph and Jason Richardson.....
 
No. If Oden stays healthy this year..no chance in hell. For Clevland, who lost LeBron...Oden would help a bit with marketing and getting a big name. Same with Indiana who has sucked for a while.

Oklahoma City...like I said, scares me the most since they need a center the most, Oden is the same age and they have lots of cap room. This would be huge if they pulled that off. What would stop them from offering Oden max money if he played decently and non-injured?
 
Like I said, you and I have vastly different opinions on what we think Oden's value is around the league. We're not going to agree, we're not likely to have our minds changed here and ultimately we just wait and find out what happens.
 
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