Ric Bucher on Courtside

[Minstrel]

Right now, he's a less explosive Bayless + Passing Skills - Defense.

Less explosive, more efficient, better passing, less defense. Overall, I'd put him on the same level of talent, except further along in his development.

Is that worth 10 million a year?

Sure. The difference in their salaries comes from the fact that Sessions is further along in development and will be paid fair market value, while Bayless is on a rookie contract. Sessions is a significantly better player now, and his age suggests more upside remaining. I'd be happy to spend $8-10 million to get a good, young and improving point guard. He can start, Bayless can back him up. If either Sessions or Bayless breaks out to stardom, the other can always be used in trade.

 

[B-Roy]

Sure. The difference in their salaries comes from the fact that Sessions is further along in development and will be paid fair market value, while Bayless is on a rookie contract. Sessions is a significantly better player now, and his age suggests more upside remaining. I'd be happy to spend $8-10 million to get a good, young and improving point guard. He can start, Bayless can back him up. If either Sessions or Bayless breaks out to stardom, the other can always be used in trade.

He's not significantly better....I can tell you that from watching a lot of his games.

One good thing about him is that he doesn't rely too much on his athleticism (he's decently athletic). That usually means faster development, lower upside, which is what I see in him. I think he can become a real good player, but not the type you lock into a 10+ million dollar contract. (Especially not in times like this)

We're all entitled to our opinions, but 8-10 million is pushing it, and I can guarantee you he won't be paid so handsomely unless he absolutely explodes for the rest of the season....

 

[Da_O]

Well they just reported on KTAR a Suns local radio show that a deal with the Blazers won't be happening.

So if anyone was thinking we might deal with the Suns it's pretty unlikely.

 

[Ed O]

Well they just reported on KTAR a Suns local radio show that a deal with the Blazers won't be happening.

So if anyone was thinking we might deal with the Suns it's pretty unlikely.

On the other hand, CBSSports is reporting that Portland is discussing a deal...

I'm gonna start a new thread on that link, specifically...

Ed O.

 

[rocketeer]

I do. He's young and an above average point guard already. He just doesn't get the minutes. If I had to pick one under-the-radar guy who could be the next Devin Harris (except, perhaps, the defense) I'd pick Sessions.

bayless is a better player than sessions.

and he isn't an above average starting pg in the league(though obviously you didn't say starting). he'd be a below average starting pg or a solid bench guy. not the kind of guy i think it would be smart to throw 8+ mil a year at.

 

[Minstrel]

He's not significantly better....I can tell you that from watching a lot of his games.

I've seen him plenty, too. The stats also say he's significantly better. Bayless looks great at times, ineffective at other times. Sessions may not significantly better than Bayless when Bayless is playing well, but he's significantly better than Bayless' average level of play.

I think he can become a real good player, but not the type you lock into a 10+ million dollar contract. (Especially not in times like this)

Unless Allen is hurting financially, "times like this" should be irrelevant, IMO. If other teams are paying less due to the current economic downturn, that's a great opportunity for the Blazers to take advantage of.

but 8-10 million is pushing it, and I can guarantee you he won't be paid so handsomely unless he absolutely explodes for the rest of the season....

It'll be interesting to see. I would just like Portland to outbid the other teams for him. If they can do that for only around $6 million, great. But I think he'll command more than the MLE. He's a good young point guard, and those aren't very common.

 

[Minstrel]

bayless is a better player than sessions.

and he isn't an above average starting pg in the league(though obviously you didn't say starting). he'd be a below average starting pg or a solid bench guy. not the kind of guy i think it would be smart to throw 8+ mil a year at.

I don't agree with either assertion, that Bayless is better or that Sessions would be a below average starter. I base that both on watching him and on PER.

Sessions PER was 16.3 last year and 17.8. Combining all his games into one sample, he has a 17.4 PER. League average starter is normalized to 15.0.

 

[rocketeer]

I don't agree with either assertion, that Bayless is better or that Sessions would be a below average starter. I base that both on watching him and on PER.

Sessions PER was 16.3 last year and 17.8. Combining all his games into one sample, he has a 17.4 PER. League average starter is normalized to 15.0.

i thought it was a league average player is normalized to 15.

for him to be an above average starting pg, that would make him at worst the 15th best pg in the league. that is not the case.

edit - and his per for this season has him as the 12th best pg(when sorted on espn), however i doubt you would go strictly by per and say that sessions is better than steve nash, jason kidd, tj ford, mo williams, derrick rose, rodney stuckey, etc.

 

[Minstrel]

i thought it was a league average player is normalized to 15.

League-average starter, according to Hollinger.

for him to be an above average starting pg, that would make him at worst the 15th best pg in the league. that is not the case.

edit - and his per for this season has him as the 12th best pg(when sorted on espn), however i doubt you would go strictly by per and say that sessions is better than steve nash, jason kidd, tj ford, mo williams, derrick rose, rodney stuckey, etc.

I don't know exactly where I'd rank him. I think the PER is useful, though, in showing that he's at least around an average starter. Whether he's truly above average or not, whether he's above all those players or not...that's harder to say.

Watching him play, I don't have much trouble believing his PER.

 

[rocketeer]

League-average starter, according to Hollinger.

I don't know exactly where I'd rank him. I think the PER is useful, though, in showing that he's at least around an average starter. Whether he's truly above average or not, whether he's above all those players or not...that's harder to say.

Watching him play, I don't have much trouble believing his PER.

but i do have trouble believing he's a top 20 pg in the league, which makes the idea of paying him 8-10 mil a year absolutely ridiculous in my mind.

 

[Minstrel]

but i do have trouble believing he's a top 20 pg in the league, which makes the idea of paying him 8-10 mil a year absolutely ridiculous in my mind.

A lot of players are undervalued and don't get minutes as soon as they deserve them. I wouldn't use his MPG as strong evidence against him, though I agree it's a data point.

I guess we just diverge a fair amount in our observations of his actual play.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Jesus, eveybody is getting their panties in a bunch. Just because I said Sessions would probably command 8-10 million on the open market doesn't mean I'm saying he's the next J-Kidd (if that were true, he'd be a max contract guy), but look around the league and the kinds of salaries that good (not even great) point guards make (not on their rookie deal). Hinrich is pulling down 10 million/year, Jose Calderon put up 11/8 last year and got himself an 8 million a year contract, hell, Antonio freaking Daniels makes 6.2 million a year for chrissakes.

It's not about what he's "worth," it's what teams are willing to pay to get a player at a position which is notoriously difficult to fill.

Yeah, I agree he's probably not an all-star candidate, but in a really short amount of time he's shown himself to be pretty capable ...