Rookie EFF 1/2/2013

[Boob-No-More]

Well, we are far enough in the current NBA season that it' time to start posting my weekly Rookie EFF rankings.

As a reminder what EFF is, and why I prefer it over PER for ranking rookies, I'll start by reposting those definitions from a previous thread that I posted at the end of the preseason:

So, what is EFF, how is it calculated and why use it instead of PER to track rookie performance?

These questions were asked multiple times the last time I posted weekly Rookie EFF results in the 2006-07 season. Rather than answer them again every time I post a weekly update, I'll share the answers here in this thread.

What is EFF?

EFF is an official NBA stat that is tracked on nba.com. It is listed at the top of every player's bio page and is one of the sortable stats on nba.com. It is a very simple :good minus bad" stat that tracks a player's total net contributions. If you can add and subtract, you can calculate EFF for a game, week, month or season. All you need is a box score, or listing of basic stats on a weekly, monthly or seasonal basis.

How is EFF Calculated?

The formula for EFF is:

Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks - Turnovers - Missed Free Throws - Missed Field Goals

So, from last night's (10/19/2012) box score, Damian Lillard had an EFF of:

15 + 2 + 7 + 0 + 0 - 1 - 7 = 16.0

And Meyers Leonard had an EFF of:

4 + 6 + 1 + 0 + 1 - 4 - 0 - 1 = 7.0

Golden State lottery pick Harrison Barnes had an EFF of:

6 + 1 + 1 + 0 + 0 - 1 - 0 - 3 = 4.0

For the Preseason:

Damian Lillard (4 Games):

EFF (per game) = (64 + 10 + 22 + 1 + 0 - 12 - 0 - 27)/4 = 58/4 = 14.5

Meyers Leonard (5 Games):

EFF (per game) = (37 + 25 + 1 + 3 + 5 - 10 - 2 - 4)/5 = 55/5 = 11.0

Yes, it's just preseason, but for comparison:

Brandon Roy Rookie EFF = 16.5 (1st among all 2006-07 rookies)
LaMarcus Aldridge Rookie EFF = 10.8 (2nd among all 2006 - 07 rookies)

And, here's the current Top 10 rookies in preseason EFF:

1 Anthony Davis EFF = 16.5
2 Damian Lillard EFF = 14.5
3 Andre Drummond EFF = 14.4
4 Perry Jones EFF = 14.3
5 Jared Sullinger EFF = 14.2
6 Bradley Beal EFF = 14.0
7 Maalik Wayns = 12.6
8 Brian Roberts = 12.2
9 Terrence Jones = 11.0
9 Meyers Leonard = 11.0

So, our two lottery picks are currently 2nd and tied for 9th in Rookie EFF.

Why use EFF instead of PER to track rookie performance?

The simple answer is because it's a lot easier. The calculation is a lot more simple. There is no advanced or proprietary formula involved. It can be calculated on a game-by-game basis from the box score, without even using a calculator, let alone a computer.

EFF makes no attempt to normalize based on minutes played or pace. To me, this actually makes it a better measure of rookie contributions than PER. It is a measurement of total production that favors the rookies that are playing significant minutes for their teams, that are contributing against other starters, when it counts. With PER, there will always be some guys who rank very high in limited garbage time minutes. You have to ask, who is making the greater contribution, the rookie who starts and plays 30 MPG, against the other teams best players, or the guy who pads his stats in 3 or 4 minutes of meaningless garbage time every 3rd or 4th game? The former will have a higher EFF, but the later will have a higher PER.

Plus, I know of no source for individual game, weekly or monthly PERs. EFF is easily calculated for all these splits. It is also possible to sort all these splits on the nba.com web site for all rookies. I also use this data to identify trends - which rookies are improving and which have hit the rookie wall and seen their performance tank.

Ultimately, it is the rookies who play the most minutes and make the most significant contributions that will be considered for ROY and 1st and 2nd team All-Rookie. And, that is really my motivation. There is a very high correlation between rookie EFF and ROY and All-Rookie Team voting (with a slight bias to players with a higher scoring average). So, tracking Rookie EFF is my way of projecting will is most deserving of these honors.

 

[BlazerWookee]

EFF statistics.

 

[Boob-No-More]

And here are the Rookie EFF Rankings for 1/2/2013:

1 Anthony Davis, NOH - 18.6
2 Damian Lillard, POR - 16.9
3 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, CHA - 14.6
4 Andre Drummond DET - 12.8
5 Alexey Shved, MIN - 11.0
6 Jonas Valanciunas, TOR - 10.8
7 Bradley Beal, WAS - 10.0
8 Dion Waiters, CLE - 9.5
9 Jared Sullinger, BOS - 9.3
10 Tyler Zeller, CLE - 9.2
11 Harrison Barnes, GSW - 8.8
12 Kyle Singler, DET - 8.8
13 Andrew Nicholson, ORL - 7.6
14 Meyers Leonard, POR - 7.2
15 Maurice Harkless, ORL - 6.7

Since this is my first Rookie EFF Ranking of the season, I included the top 15 rookies. Mostly because I wanted to include Meyers Leonard, but also because is still young and many of these rookies will see their EFF rise as the start to get more playing time. Later in the season, I may whittle it down to the top 10, or limit to rookies with an EFF of at least 8.0, but for now, I'll go with the top 15.

Note: Anthony Davis has only played in 18 games vs. 30 for Damian Lillard. If ROY voting was today, I think Lillard would win easily. If Davis continues to play and produce, the final ROY voting could get very interesting. Although ROY voting closely correlates to EFF, the correlation isn't exact. Voters are often swayed by a higher scoring average, as well as the player's impact on his team's won-loss record.

For example, in 2008-09, Brook Lopez led all rookies in EFF at 17.4. But, Derrick Rose (second in Rookie EFF at 17.1) won ROY by a landslide (with 111 first place votes to 4 for OJ Mayo and 2 each for Lopez and Russell Westbrook).

With Lillard's Blazers at 16-14 and Davis' Hornets at 7-24, Lillard has a big edge in this area. Lillard also averages 4 more PPG (18.4 vs. 14.4) than Davis and has hit multiple huge late game shots. And, let's face it: Sports Center highlights leave a lasting impression on ROY voters and Lillard leads all rookies in highlights.

Lillard's EFF has slipped recently due to a shooting slump, but he continues to score and contribute in other ways. It's too early to predict final ROY voting, but if Lillard can keep his scoring average up, continue to lead all rookies in both PPG and APG by wide margins, and shoot a little better, he will be the odds on favorite to win ROY.

Anthony Davis is the only current legitimate challenger, but keep an eye on Andre Drummond. His playing time has increased recently, and as a result his EFF has jumped. Drummond is currently the in Rookie EFF at 12.8, but rising rapidly. At this point, the only think keeping Drummond from being a legitimate ROY candidate is limited playing time.

 

[Boob-No-More]

EFF statistics.

BTW, you can always check the daily updated Rookie EFF stats at the official NBA web site here.

Their table is much more complete, and updated every morning. In addition to my personal opinions and observations, the area where I will add value is in weekly and monthly summaries that will help spot trends among the top rookies. Since this is my Rookie EFF post of the season, I didn't include that here, but it will be included in future updates. I will list season totals, weekly totals and monthly totals, and change in EFF since last update. That makes it easy to spot trends like who is on the rise, who has hit the rookie wall and who should be in the running for the Rookie of the Month honors.

BNM

 

[jlprk]

I creatively posted about rookie rankings last night and early this morning. See my last 3 posts in the following link. A few hours later, Boob, you started the new thread along the same lines. Did you read my 3 posts?

http://sportstwo.com/threads/225739-Lillard-Rookie-of-the-Month-(confirmed)/page4

 

[Boob-No-More]

And, since this is my first Rookie EFF post of the season, I thought I'd add a a little additional info about recent rookie performance.

Since we are all Blazer fans, I'll start with the obvious comparison. Brandon Roy won ROY in 2006-07 with an EFF = 16.4. Although Lillard has slipped recently, due to a bit of a shooting slump, at EFF = 16.9, he still has the highest Rookie EFF of any Blazer rookie in recent times. NBA.com doesn't go back past the 2004-05 season, but at some point, I'll go back and calculate Rookie EFF for some historic Blazer rookies like Bill Walton and Clyde Drexler - just to see where Lillard's rookie performance stands compared to some of the franchise's greatest players.

And, here's how Lillard and Roy compare to some other recent Blazers point/combo guards:

Damian Lillard, EFF = 16.9
Brandon Roy, EFF = 16.4
Jarett Jack, EFF = 7.7
Sebastian Telfair, EFF = 6.1
Sergio Rodriguez, EFF = 5.6
Jerryd Bayles, EFF = 3.5

Well, it's pretty easy to see how special Lillard and Roy are compared to the rest of the pack. Had to believe any of those other guys were ever considered as our PGOTF.

Here's how Lillard has compared to some other top rookie PGs:

Chris Paul, EFF = 21.2*
Tyreke Evans, EFF = 19.6*
Stephen Curry, EFF = 19.0
John Wall, EFF = 18.1
Kyrie Irving, EFF = 17.7*
Derrick Rose, EFF = 17.1*
Damian Lillard, EFF = 16.9
Ricky Rubio, EFF = 15.4
Russell Westbrook, EFF = 14.7
Brandon Jennings, EFF = 13.8
Darren Collison, EFF = 13.3
Raymond Felton, EFF = 12.4
Kemba Walker, EFF = 11.4
Deron Williams, EFF = 10.5
Rajon Rondo, EFF = 9.8
Kyle Lowry, EFF = 9.5
Ty Lawson, EFF = 9.4
Jrue Holiday, EFF = 9.4
Monta Ellis, EFF = 6.1

So, of the 6 rookie PGs who had an EFF higher than Lillard, 4 won ROY and the other 2 (Curry and Wall) came in second in ROY voting. I think Lillad has the potential to increase his EFF and pass Rose and Irving and possibly even Wall by the end of the season. Lillard's EFF was above 18 until his recent shooting woes. If he can just bump up his FG% little, he could get his EFF back above 18. But, it's a long season and only time will tell if Lillard's EFF will go back up, or it will continue to decline.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

I creatively posted about rookie rankings last night and early this morning. See my last 3 posts in the following link. A few hours later, Boob, you started the new thread along the same lines. Did you read my 3 posts?

http://sportstwo.com/threads/225739-Lillard-Rookie-of-the-Month-(confirmed)/page4

No, I didn't. I haven't been on the forum recently (gasp!). I'll go back and check them out. I plan to continue to post weekly and monthly threads on Rookie EFF rankings, like I did back in 2006-07 when Roy and Aldridge were rookies.

BNM

 

[jlprk]

It was hard to find database sites allowing 2 constraints, rookie and December. Basketball-Reference had only the one odd selection site that I used.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

at some point, I'll go back and calculate Rookie EFF for some historic Blazer rookies like Bill Walton and Clyde Drexler - just to see where Lillard's rookie performance stands compared to some of the franchise's greatest players.

Hi BNM! I tried my hand at Clyde's:

628p + 235r + 153a + 107s + 29b = 1152
123t + 46mft + 307mfg = 476

1152 - 476 = 676

676/82 = 8.24

Did I do that right?

 

[Boob-No-More]

Hi BNM! I tried my hand at Clyde's:

628p + 235r + 153a + 107s + 29b = 1152
123t + 46mft + 307mfg = 476

1152 - 476 = 676

676/82 = 8.24

Did I do that right?

Yes, that's correct.

BNM