OT Rookies

[GDiama]

Haliburton has looked amazing.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

He looked good again yesterday against Miami. Plays better D already than Lillard or CJ. One thing I notice about Boston; it they get matched up wrong, they will switch back very quickly. We never do that.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

In the old days they would have called it carrying.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

View attachment 35904

Okoro must be a hell of a defender to get 34 minutes a game, cuz he doesn't do much on offense.

 

[GDiama]

Okoro must be a hell of a defender to get 34 minutes a game, cuz he doesn't do much on offense.

34 mins with very good +- as well!

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Devin Vassell and Xavier Tillman have great +/- in comparatively few minutes. Vassell in particular looks like a keeper.

 

[JDC]

Top rookies ranked by EPM (Estimated Plus-Minus)

https://dunksandthrees.com/epm

Newest all-in-one metric, lowest prediction error (in terms of predicting team net rating) of all the other similar metrics ( RPM, RAPM, PIPM, RAPTOR etc.) with or without accounting for roster changes.

*Tested on data since 2013-2014 season

https://dunksandthrees.com/blog/metric-comparison

1) Xavier Tillman: +3.1 (Offense -0.7 / Defense: +3.8)
2) Deni Avdija: +1.7 (Offense: 0.0 / Defense: +1.6)
3) Payton Pritchard: +0.1 (Offense: -0.7 / Defense: +0.8)
4) Facundo Compazzo: -0.0 (Offense: -1.1 / Defense: +1.1)
5) LaMelo Ball:: -0.4 (Offense: +0.5 / Defense: -0.9)
6) Devin Vassell: -0.5 (Offense: -1.9 / Defense: +1.5)
7) Tyrese Haliburton: -0.6 (Offense: +1.7 / Defense: -2.3)
8) Desmond Bane: -0.7 (Offense: -1.3 / Defense: +0.6)
9) Mason Jones: -0.9 (Offense: -0.9 / Defense: 0.0)
10) Immanuel Quickley: -1.2 (Offense: +0.3 / Defense: -1.5)

Bonus) CJ McCollum: +6.9 (Offense +6.9 / Defense: -0.0) *2nd in the league

 

[Rastapopoulos]

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Top rookies ranked by EPM (Estimated Plus-Minus)

https://dunksandthrees.com/epm

Newest all-in-one metric, lowest prediction error (in terms of predicting team net rating) of all the other similar metrics ( RPM, RAPM, PIPM, RAPTOR etc.) with or without accounting for roster changes.

*Tested on data since 2013-2014 season

https://dunksandthrees.com/blog/metric-comparison

1) Xavier Tillman: +3.1 (Offense -0.7 / Defense: +3.8)
2) Deni Avdija: +1.7 (Offense: 0.0 / Defense: +1.6)
3) Payton Pritchard: +0.1 (Offense: -0.7 / Defense: +0.8)
4) Facundo Compazzo: -0.0 (Offense: -1.1 / Defense: +1.1)
5) LaMelo Ball:: -0.4 (Offense: +0.5 / Defense: -0.9)
6) Devin Vassell: -0.5 (Offense: -1.9 / Defense: +1.5)
7) Tyrese Haliburton: -0.6 (Offense: +1.7 / Defense: -2.3)
8) Desmond Bane: -0.7 (Offense: -1.3 / Defense: +0.6)
9) Mason Jones: -0.9 (Offense: -0.9 / Defense: 0.0)
10) Immanuel Quickley: -1.2 (Offense: +0.3 / Defense: -1.5)

Bonus) CJ McCollum: +6.9 (Offense +6.9 / Defense: -0.0) *2nd in the league

Xavier Tillman also led the entire NCAA in box +/- (which is why I wanted so badly for us to draft him). I can't get too mad at this list, though, because at least none of them went to teams I really loathe, and the Hornets, Knicks and Wizards have been down so long it's about time something good happened to them. Just REALLY glad I'm not a T-Wolves fan.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Tillman!

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Saddiq Bey!

 

[JDC]

A few rookie thoughts....

Loved the fits for Hali and LaMelo after the draft. Fox was a great pairing for Haliburton and was high on Borrego as a developmental / offensive coach. Been a joy to watch them both flourish.

Haven't watched as much of Haliburton, but from what I have seen, has been much better off the dribble than I thought. Not sure how sustainable the shooting is and still believe he'll settle in as a 16-19% usage high impact role guy rather than a star, but his combination of shooting, passing, cutting and team defensive instincts are the ideal skills you want in that role and it's translating to positive impact already. He's got the intelligence and instincts to be one of those guys that could develops in unsuspecting ways too so I may be underselling his ceiling.

As far as Melo goes, it's kind of crazy how quickly he's improving. Wasn't nearly as low on the defense as most with his size, instincts flashes and defensive rebounding ability, but his effort and consistency has made a big step from his Australia film. Still gets lost a lot but he's extremely active and has made some wonderful reads. Thought his ceiling could be a neutral guard defender at his peak with development and he's trending in that direction already. Jumper mechanics are continuing to refine and his finishing package and ability to play with contact around the rim have made notable strides.

Becoming slightly worried about Isaac Okoro.

Think he's smart and athletic enough to make it and I trust his work ethic, but I may have underrated how tough his road will be to becoming a plus player at his height+length+skill deficit level. Looks small out there. Lost some weight which I like since his mirroring abilities on the ball took a step back at Auburn from HS. Still hasn't looked great guarding quick guards (we saw what Dame did to him), but that should improve with experience. On ball versatility is going to be big for him moving forward though since the off ball instincts aren't anything special. Fine rotationally, but not very anticipatory or disruptive. Length issue shows up here (as well as finishing in traffic).

Do like that he already looks pretty comfortable from the corner 3. Don't think he found a great developmental spot in Cleveland though. Not getting many opportunities alongside Sexton and Garland and Bickerstaff imo has done a poor job finding ways get him on the move to utilize his drive and kick vision and finishing ability. Playing big most of the time has hurt him a lot too.

Lastly, Poku has been rough. When I first watched him at the U18's in 2019 I said "Poku film is a roller coaster and I'm not sure it's a good one" and that definitely has been the story so far in the NBA (to the extreme really). Super young and skinny and there have been some flashes, but I am firmly a skeptic if he'll be able to put it together.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

 

[THE HCP]

Gotta love having that green light!