Re: Why Roy likes a slow game where he controls the ball... and why we should too.
That doesn't really tell us what style of play leads to the most wins. It simply tells us that the team is better when the team's best player makes fewer mistakes. Probably true for every team.
Thanks for the considered response; I went through the game logs and recorded our scores for the 30 games where Roy shot .500 FG% or better. The Blazers in those games score 100.7 points a game (league average was 100.4pts). This is 2.6 points per game higher than our average of 98.1 for the season.
What's striking is that, in the 26 wins out of those 30 games where Roy shoots 50% or better, our score was 100.9 points per game (which is higher), while our season average ppg in wins was 89.6ppg! By contrast, our ppg in losses was 102.9ppg.
(By way of comparison, the world champion LA Lakers scored 102.2 points in a loss and 94.7 points in a win last year; this sort of stat is apparently not unusual; in the 31 games where Kobe shot .500 or better, the Lakers were 24-7).
Shots per game: The Blazers averages 76.7 shots per game in those 30 games. The seasonal average was 78.7. However, in wins, the Blazers averaged 77.4 shots per game (80.6 in losses); in the 26 wins where Brandon shoots 50% or better, the shots per game was 76.9.
There's no "faster game" when Roy plays well, though we do score more points when he does, due to better efficiency. However, team performance in losses (more shots, more points scored) seems to indicate that a faster paced game might not be good for everybody on the floor in a Blazer uniform.
I look at it as a risk/reward system: if we were at .500 (41 wins) or below, changing our system would be a better than 2:1 chance to succeed. But we're winning between 50 and 54 wins recently, and the opportunity to fail is larger than the opportunity to succeed by changing.
I'm not against improving our pace; it wouldn't take much, either... just shoot with 7 seconds left on the shot clock rather than 6, on average. More fast breaks or shooting early in the shot clock will push this average up, of course. Basically, we just need 4-6 more possessions a game to push the pace up from slowest in the league to league average.
But I wouldn't want to be any faster than that; this is where the portion of your post I quoted is addressed: only 6 of the 16 playoff teams were above average in pace (this includes the Lakers, who were essentially at average, being 92.8 versus 92.7 for the league). But 12 of the 16 playoff teams were above average in ORtg (Offensive efficiency) and 15 of the 16 were above average in DRtg (defensive efficiency). Success correlates much more to efficiency than speed.