Rubio in the Olympics

[andalusian]

My guess is that Rubio will be a very nice starter level PG in the league by his 3rd year (if not earlier) and will make at least one all-star appearance. That's the least I expect from him - my gut feeling is that he will not be a CP3 level PG (once in a generation) - but would be just as effective as Deron/Rose when all is said and done - but in a slightly different way - he will be a better distributing version of Rondo - but not as good a defender and will not be as good a scorer either.

 

[Mediocre Man]

At the same time, I also say that Jason Kidd isn't capable of leading a team to a championship, and hasn't been since before he left NJ. So now what does it say?

Technically Kidd did lead his team over Rubio's team though for a title.

 

[andalusian]

At the same time, I also say that Jason Kidd isn't capable of leading a team to a championship, and hasn't been since before he left NJ. So now what does it say?

It says that at these Olympics, a wet behind the ears Rubio was about as good a player as the veteran Kidd that people seem to clamor for - but unlike Kidd - you can actually expect him to get better...

Another thing to remember - while Kidd never got a ring - the teams he lead to the finals had him as the best player - something Rubio will not likely be on a team that has Roy/Aldridge/Oden...

Look at the other comparison I made with Deron Williams - where the 6 years younger Rubio did not look like a fool against a player that had an all-NBA 2nd team appearance in 2008 and lead his team to the Western conference finals in 2007...

 

[Minstrel]

My guess is that Rubio will be a very nice starter level PG in the league by his 3rd year (if not earlier) and will make at least one all-star appearance. That's the least I expect from him - my gut feeling is that he will not be a CP3 level PG (once in a generation) - but would be just as effective as Deron/Rose when all is said and done - but in a slightly different way - he will be a better distributing version of Rondo - but not as good a defender and will not be as good a scorer either.

Yeah, that's my expectation too. He'll be in the tier of excellent, All-Star caliber point guards that are chasing Chris Paul (who I feel is the best point guard since Magic and may end up a top-three point guard of all-time).

Deron Williams, Rajon Rondo, Devin Harris, Derrick Rose, Ricky Rubio. Some of the best of the rest. That's my expectation, though it's lofty so he could fall short of that and still be a valuable player.

 

[Mediocre Man]

I think Bayless will be every bit as good of a guard as Rubio. Different, but at least as good.

 

[andalusian]

I think Bayless will be every bit as good of a guard as Rubio. Different, but at least as good.

I think highly of Bayless - but I think that to be a real star in the league he will need a system like NJN has for Devin Harris - which does not happen this often. He is not a traditional PG and he is not big enough to be a SG in most systems to become a star that way. If JB is our PG of the future or if he stays in Portland in another capacity (if he fails as a PG and the team chooses to keep him as the backup SG instead of Rudy) - he will be effective - but I suspect that Rubio will have a chance to be a bigger impact player in more systems/teams.

Time will tell...

 

[hasoos]

It says that at these Olympics, a wet behind the ears Rubio was about as good a player as the veteran Kidd that people seem to clamor for - but unlike Kidd - you can actually expect him to get better...

Another thing to remember - while Kidd never got a ring - the teams he lead to the finals had him as the best player - something Rubio will not likely be on a team that has Roy/Aldridge/Oden...

Look at the other comparison I made with Deron Williams - where the 6 years younger Rubio did not look like a fool against a player that had an all-NBA 2nd team appearance in 2008 and lead his team to the Western conference finals in 2007...

I don't clamor for Kidd. I think he has the same holes in his game that Rubio has, and those are the same holes that cost him an NBA championship. Jason Kidd came into the league with every single hole in his game that Rubio has now, except that Kidd is more physical. Secondly, I would point out that I don't think that any Olympic team, even the dream team, would win against an NBA champion. I think an NBA championship team that has been playing together for years would run roughshod over them. To compare Olympic finals against NBA finals, is a big leap at best.

 

[Reep]

Does anybody actually read the posts?

Did you really think I was talking directly to you?

 

[Sinobas]

Rubio is almost the player that Calderon is, in spite of being nearly a decade younger.

You understand that players who are really young have higher upside, all other things being equal, than older players... right?

Ed O.

One of Calderon's best traits is that he shoots such a high percentage. That's been a weakness of Rubio so far, shooting under 40%. With his passing skills, it makes him more like Sergio Rodriguez at this point than Calderon.

But he is supposedly a good defender, which would make him unlike either of those two in that respect.

 

[Blaze01]

on the radio they were talking about rumours that POR mgmt may not be as enamored with Bayless as many here think they are.....

 

[Da_O]

What is it with Rubio around here? First off the likelihood of us getting him in a trade is nearly nil. Secondly, I have not seen anything that would warrant trading up for him or his hype(other than him being young)

I mean look at those stats

Nothing jumps out of the page at you. The guy can't shoot, that's pretty much established. 39.1% in the Spanish league. I don't care what the league is that's a horrible percentage. His season averages were a mediocre 10 and 6. He scored 10 points or less 13 out of a possible 25 times.

People like to say, "Uh well he played good in the Olympics." Really? Because to me he looked pretty lost on both sides of the ball. His stats don't show any better

 

[BrianFromWA]

The chances that we get Chris Paul are almost nil. The chances we get a top 8 pick are pretty high, and the chances we get #2 or #5 are actually quite good.

So let's just compare him to our starting PG.

"39.1% is a horrible percentage". OK, I'll agree that that isn't stellar. Our starting PG was only at 42.8, so 3% higher. Rubio's 3pt% was 41.7%, less than Blake's 42.7%. Huge difference there, though I"ll grant that the 3pt line is a college 3pt line in Europe, so take that for what it's worth.
Blake received one free throw for every 9 FGs he took. Rubio? He sucks so badly at shooting that the defense gave him a free throw every 1.6 FGs he took. Let's put it this way. Rubio shot 33% more FTs than Blake in 40 less (and 8 minute shorter) games. And he shot 81% as an 18y/o. Maybe that counts for something. Maybe not. Maybe that "doesn't jump off the page at you". You could also look at his 5.8 apg, which is amazing considering how stingy Euro statisticians are with giving assists. And yet, in 25% less minutes per game and a stingy stats team, he averaged more assists per game than Blake on a high-level team.

Maybe it's unfair to compare him to a starting, 29y/o veteran on a HCA playoff team. What about if he was the backup? He shot the same 2pt percentage as Sergio, but with a 3pt% 9 points higher. Sergio's FTA/FGA was about 1 FTA per every 4+ FGA. Again, Rubio's was every 1.6 FGA. Why do these bigger, older guys foul him so much if he sucks so much?

But Bayless is probably the PG of the future for us, right? He got to the line LESS THAN RUBIO as well, though it's in the 1FTA per 1.8FGA range also. He shot 3% lower than Rubio's "horrible" 39% FG, and 15% lower than Rubio's 42% from 3 (again, Euro 3's are college distance, not NBA).

So basically, the guy draws fouls at a better rate than Bayless (who's our best PG at that), has better handles and court vision than Sergio (who's our best PG at that), shoots about the same from 3pt and FG% as Blake (who's our best PG at that), while Defensive Player of the year in his league and leader in assists and steals, and you think he's "lost" and doesn't have anything that "would warrant trading up for him or his hype"?

I guess we disagree on that. I can't fathom that you think that.

 

[andalusian]

To compare Olympic finals against NBA finals, is a big leap at best.

If you look at the 2nd post of this thread you will see that I generally agree. What I really like however, and the reason I like Rubio - is that his ACB per-36 production seems to be on par with Derrick Rose's per-36 production as a college player.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I don't clamor for Kidd. I think he has the same holes in his game that Rubio has, and those are the same holes that cost him an NBA championship.

You have got to be shitting us. Do you KNOW who his teammates were in NJ? He dragged a team consisting of Kerry Kittles (Kerry fucking Kittles!), Kenyon Martin (both of whom were coming back off MAJOR leg injuries), Richard Jefferson and Jason Collins to the finals. TWICE! And met the Lakers with Shaq and Kobe the first time, and the Spurs with their Big Three at peak form the second. So exactly what "holes in his game" killed his chances?

Perhaps you'd prefer a more "complete" PG like Stephon Marbury (in his prime). He could do it all! Including drag down both teams that Kidd took to the finals.

 

[Da_O]

The chances that we get Chris Paul are almost nil. The chances we get a top 8 pick are pretty high, and the chances we get #2 or #5 are actually quite good.

So let's just compare him to our starting PG.

"39.1% is a horrible percentage". OK, I'll agree that that isn't stellar. Our starting PG was only at 42.8, so 3% higher. Rubio's 3pt% was 41.7%, less than Blake's 42.7%. Huge difference there, though I"ll grant that the 3pt line is a college 3pt line in Europe, so take that for what it's worth.
Blake received one free throw for every 9 FGs he took. Rubio? He sucks so badly at shooting that the defense gave him a free throw every 1.6 FGs he took. Let's put it this way. Rubio shot 33% more FTs than Blake in 40 less (and 8 minute shorter) games. And he shot 81% as an 18y/o. Maybe that counts for something. Maybe not. Maybe that "doesn't jump off the page at you". You could also look at his 5.8 apg, which is amazing considering how stingy Euro statisticians are with giving assists. And yet, in 25% less minutes per game and a stingy stats team, he averaged more assists per game than Blake on a high-level team.

Maybe it's unfair to compare him to a starting, 29y/o veteran on a HCA playoff team. What about if he was the backup? He shot the same 2pt percentage as Sergio, but with a 3pt% 9 points higher. Sergio's FTA/FGA was about 1 FTA per every 4+ FGA. Again, Rubio's was every 1.6 FGA. Why do these bigger, older guys foul him so much if he sucks so much?

But Bayless is probably the PG of the future for us, right? He got to the line LESS THAN RUBIO as well, though it's in the 1FTA per 1.8FGA range also. He shot 3% lower than Rubio's "horrible" 39% FG, and 15% lower than Rubio's 42% from 3 (again, Euro 3's are college distance, not NBA).

So basically, the guy draws fouls at a better rate than Bayless (who's our best PG at that), has better handles and court vision than Sergio (who's our best PG at that), shoots about the same from 3pt and FG% as Blake (who's our best PG at that), while Defensive Player of the year in his league and leader in assists and steals, and you think he's "lost" and doesn't have anything that "would warrant trading up for him or his hype"?

I guess we disagree on that. I can't fathom that you think that.

I said in the Olympics he look lost out there. Secondly all those stats you're comparing across leagues. Rubio plays in a much inferior league to the NBA, and puts up worse stats while doing it.

 

[Uther TheGardener]

much inferior? no its the 2nd best league in the world...

 

[PapaG]

Interesting thread to review. Have any opinions on Rubio changed over time?

 

[Minstrel]

I'm less high on him than I was then. I'd still take a flier on him, but I wouldn't pay a premium for his rights anymore.

 

[PapaG]

Interesting thread, and Ed, it wasn't you saying Rubio would improve the team instantly, so unless I find those posts that I may be misremembering, I was wrong.

 

[Ed O]

Interesting thread, and Ed, it wasn't you saying Rubio would improve the team instantly, so unless I find those posts that I may be misremembering, I was wrong.

The thing is... he MIGHT have helped our team last year. Our backup PG play was crap.

Ed O.

 

[PapaG]

Yeah, that's my expectation too. He'll be in the tier of excellent, All-Star caliber point guards that are chasing Chris Paul (who I feel is the best point guard since Magic and may end up a top-three point guard of all-time).

Deron Williams, Rajon Rondo, Devin Harris, Derrick Rose, Ricky Rubio. Some of the best of the rest. That's my expectation, though it's lofty so he could fall short of that and still be a valuable player.

Minstrel, do you still think that Rubio will be on the level of a Rose, Williams or even a Rondo? Rose has moved into MVP range, so perhaps you underestimated him, but do you really see Rubio carrying a team like Rose or Williams do, or Rondo has done in the playoffs? Rondo getting injured in the playoffs this year was a huge reason why Miami was able to win with relative ease against Boston. I still don't see Rubio ever being in that class of player.

EDIT - Gah! Minstrel already answered it.

 

[Minstrel]

Minstrel, do you still think that Rubio will be on the level of a Rose, Williams or even a Rondo? Rose has moved into MVP range, so perhaps you underestimated him, but do you really see Rubio carrying a team like Rose or Williams do, or Rondo has done in the playoffs? Rondo getting injured in the playoffs this year was a huge reason why Miami was able to win with relative ease against Boston. I still don't see Rubio ever being in that class of player.

EDIT - Gah! Minstrel already answered it.

Yeah, I answered it. His stalled development definitely changes my appraisals of his upside.

On another note, while Rose won the MVP, I don't consider that a meaningful way to evaluate a player's ability. MVP has turned into an award for "best story by a really good player." Voters don't want to give the award to Michael Jordan every year or LeBron James every year. That's too boring.

I still feel Rose is in the same talent class as Deron Williams and Rajon Rondo (Rose is a better offensive player than Rondo but can't touch him defensively). I would definitely not expect Rubio to reach that level as things stand, though it wouldn't shock me if he did. As it stands, I'd probably expect more of a young Andre Miller level if things go well.