Rubio in the Olympics

[BrianFromWA]

As far as me wanting more "experience", I think you're misquoting me. I wanted better players. Since you can't draft Rubio in February...

I believe I was saying that we needed to either get a good veteran (Butler, Wallace, even Carter) or let guys like Sergio and Bayless play. I'm pretty sure I said something like that all year. And iirc, I was pushing to make the Arenas+Washington's pick for Raef trade about, oh, November. I could be wrong on that.

You disappointed me on this one, PapaG.

To be fair, I'm not saying his 4/4/3 in the Olympics projects to anything. If that's your point, we have no disagreement. I'm saying that his body of work at 18 is so much better in my eyes than anyone else in this draft, and potentially the last 3 drafts, that since 2006 I would take him over everyone except Roy, Rose and Oden. Yes, I'm including Durant, Beasley, Mayo, and anyone else.

 

[PapaG]

Does ANYONE think that Rubio's going to be the best possible fit as the starting PG for the Blazers next year?

Seriously. Anyone?

I want the Blazers to pull out all the stops to get him, but that's because of his net present value (meaning: future production and contributions), rather than because he'd be better than Blake or Bayless next year.

PapaG appears to be painting Rubio with a wide negative brush because the general point is so obvious: 18 year-olds, no matter how good they are or great they might one day be, are almost never the best option to be PG for a championship-level team in the NBA.

Ed O.

Posting about generally accepted points is a negative? Interesting perspective and not very objective.

 

[BrianFromWA]

What do you mean by overrated? That he isn't the 2nd-or-so best player in this draft? Or that he isn't better than Blake, Sergio or Bayless? I don't know what you mean by that.

 

[LittleAlex]

Yes ...and that is CLEARLY why we shouldn't even think about pursuing a Chris Paul, Tony Parker or Steve Nash for that matter....



If the kid can play, then Nate will play him...It wasn't Segio's "style" that kept him held back by Nate, it was his lapses on defense, careless turnovers and inability to hit an outside shot\create his own offense....great passing\court vision is a very nice ability to have, but it doesn't do you much good if you can't bring anything else to the floor...and many nights Sergio couldn't do that....

This argument is poor in two ways.

One, it equates an 18 year old kid to three NBA All-Star veterans. You know what they can do in the NBA because they have done it for years. RR is an unknown no matter what his upside is. If you went out and got CP3, it is highly likely the team would change to fit his game. Nate isn't going to change shit for a rookie, especially a rookie point guard who can't shoot.

Two, we actually have no way of knowing whether or not it was the system or the player that made Sergio look so bad. I am actually hoping we find out next year. If Sergio goes to another team and kills it, then we know he was being held back here. If he goes to another team and gets the same results as here, then he just isn't an NBA player afterall.

 

[PapaG]

As far as me wanting more "experience", I think you're misquoting me. I wanted better players. Since you can't draft Rubio in February...

I believe I was saying that we needed to either get a good veteran (Butler, Wallace, even Carter) or let guys like Sergio and Bayless play. I'm pretty sure I said something like that all year. And iirc, I was pushing to make the Arenas+Washington's pick for Raef trade about, oh, November. I could be wrong on that.

You disappointed me on this one, PapaG.

To be fair, I'm not saying his 4/4/3 in the Olympics projects to anything. If that's your point, we have no disagreement. I'm saying that his body of work at 18 is so much better in my eyes than anyone else in this draft, and potentially the last 3 drafts, that since 2006 I would take him over everyone except Roy, Rose and Oden. Yes, I'm including Durant, Beasley, Mayo, and anyone else.

Hell Brian, your "win now!" attitude has infected me this off-season. I guess I'm the torchbearer now! The feeling of disappointment is mutual.

 

[Blaze01]

Are you comparing Rubio to Paul, Parker, and Nash? How so, at least in terms of what they could do next season to help the Blazers.

Oh clearly I was, as referenced by the quote that I highlighted and the words that I typed?

The point was, if the player is good enough, nate (or any coach) would adjust thier style for them....I have no idea if Rubio will be anywhere near as good as any of those three guys, but If people like Pritchard & his scouts believe he is worth trading up to get...then who are you or I to disagree with thier assessment?

To say you shouldn't draft a guy because he doesn't fit your offense (as if this isn't a fluid thing anyway) is short sighted IMO...

Talent trumps all...

 

[Ed O]

Posting about generally accepted points is a negative? Interesting perspective and not very objective.

Should people make "I don't care what people say, I like the Blazers!" threads here? It won't hurt anything, but it doesn't seem particularly interesting to me, given that so few people here would argue that the OP should not like the Blazers.

This whole thread appears to be a red herring: claiming that people point to his Olympic stats as the reason that he'd be an upgrade at the PG spot in the 2009-2010 NBA season for the Blazers.

If anyone has done that, then I'll join you in arguing against them.

Because I have yet to see one of those people, your efforts to limit the discussion to JUST next year seems odd.

Ed O.

 

[PapaG]

What do you mean by overrated? That he isn't the 2nd-or-so best player in this draft? Or that he isn't better than Blake, Sergio or Bayless? I don't know what you mean by that.

I mean maybe he isn't one of the best pick and roll players in the world (lots of zone in Europe), and maybe he isn't the best defensive player in Spain, although that could be considered a contradiction anyhow

I guess what I'm saying is that he has some obvious holes in his game. Will his positives negate the rest until if/when he becomes a complete player? Is he even a better fit than Bayless for what this team needs?

 

[BrianFromWA]

I guess I'm in the minority here. I want to "Win Now", very badly. I personally think that starting Rubio on Day One is better than starting Blake. Although I'd be more than ok if it was Bayless starting and Rubio backing him up. I'm also ok (and was last year) with accepting growing pains if we were really "letting the cake bake". But as I pointed out ad nauseum, imho playing Blake and Outlaw 60mpg is not "cake baking".

 

[PapaG]

Oh clearly I was, as referenced by the quote that I highlighted and the words that I typed?

The point was, if the player is good enough, nate (or any coach) would adjust thier style for them....I have no idea if Rubio will be anywhere near as good as any of those three guys, but If people like Pritchard & his scouts believe he is worth trading up to get...then who are you or I to disagree with thier assessment?

Umm...

Yes ...and that is CLEARLY why we shouldn't even think about pursuing a Chris Paul, Tony Parker or Steve Nash for that matter....

I don't really understand your point. Trading for Paul, Parker, and Nash would dramatically change the team next year and adjustments would be made. Trading for Rubio may actually set the team back if he starts, and that's without completely changing the offense.

 

[LittleAlex]

Hell Brian, your "win now!" attitude has infected me this off-season. I guess I'm the torchbearer now!

You are not alone. I believe the team needs to make moves to become a contender now. I don't like whole idea of waiting another two years while the latest project comes of age. If Portland can make a move or two to seriously push the Lakers, Denver and San Antonio they need to get it done.

Drafting RR in no way helps them next year, or even the year after. All we really get with picking RR in this draft is Blake as a starter for at least the next two years and a logjam at the backup spot (unless Bayless and Sergio are both not with the team). How can this be something anyone would want?

The only way I am cool with giving up proven NBA assets for a draft pick in this lottery is if that player is part of another deal that brings in a quality NBA proven vet. Anything else would be a waste of resources.

 

[PapaG]

I guess I'm in the minority here. I want to "Win Now", very badly. I personally think that starting Rubio on Day One is better than starting Blake. Although I'd be more than ok if it was Bayless starting and Rubio backing him up. I'm also ok (and was last year) with accepting growing pains if we were really "letting the cake bake". But as I pointed out ad nauseum, imho playing Blake and Outlaw 60mpg is not "cake baking".

I strongly disagree with that opinion and hope I don't have to find out the answer. Cheers!

 

[BrianFromWA]

I mean maybe he isn't one of the best pick and roll players in the world (lots of zone in Europe), and maybe he isn't the best defensive player in Spain, although that could be considered a contradiction anyhow

I guess what I'm saying is that he has some obvious holes in his game. Will his positives negate the rest until if/when he becomes a complete player? Is he even a better fit than Bayless for what this team needs?

Good point, and fair enough.

I guess I just don't see that his holes in the game/negatives (and even having horrible stats in the Olympics) hurt his team much, while his positives kept him on the floor against 12 of the best players in the world.

 

[Tince]

I hate this discussion - because it ignores the kid's role on the team and it provides a very small sample...

If we were to use the same method to evaluate him against Jason Kidd he would look like gold...


Kidd (USA) | Rubio (ESP)

PPG 1.6 | 4.8
RPG 2.6 | 4
ORPG 0.8 | 1.4
DRPG 1.9 | 2.6
ASPG 2 | 3
TOPG 1.5 | 2
FG2P% 100% | 35%
FG3P% 50% | 16.7%
FT% 0% | 78.3%


----

Should we assume that Kidd can not lead an NBA team based on these stats?

Rubio is a prospect - probably one of the better ones out there. Of course he will not come into the league, put a team on his back and carry them to the Larry O'brian trophy. But - if you have a chance drafting him without breaking the core of your team - you would be silly not to, unless you know for sure that the Meteor is heading for earth and will hit before the 2010 Summer League starts...

Did Rubio have as much talent around him and Kidd? Were their minutes per game similar?

 

[SodaPopinski]

These threads are always funny to me, to see how many people are riding Rubio's jock like a pogo stick when the kid is essentially a high school senior and has hardly any experience playing against NBA-level guys.

Honestly, how many of you get boners when you see a grainy youtube highlight video with the trapezoid key with a hip-hop soundtrack behind it? Be honest.

OMG draft him! DRAFT HIM!

Honestly, whatever team drafts him should print up his jersey with "OMG Rubio" on the back insted of just "Rubio."

-Pop

 

[Ed O]

These threads are always funny to me, to see how many people are riding Rubio's jock like a pogo stick when the kid is essentially a high school senior and has hardly any experience playing against NBA-level guys.

He has more experience playing against NBA-level guys than any players coming out of college.

And if you think that playing for several years at high levels of basketball in Europe is like a kid playing in high school... hmm. I guess we'll just have to disagree.

Ed O.

 

[PapaG]

Rubio in Europe last season.

EuroLeague

G - 5
MinPG - 13.2
PPG - 2.4
RPG - 2.4
APG - 2.8
TOPG - 2.4
SPG - 1.8

FG - 30%
3PT - 33%
FT - 72%

ACB

G - 22
MinPG - 23
PPG - 10
RPG - 1.9
APG - 6.1
TOPG - 3.0
SPG - 2.2

FG - 39%
3PT - 42%
FT - 80%

Again, I see some obvious holes in his offensive game while playing against players with a fraction of the athleticism that is found every night in the NBA. I am also concerned at how well his body will hold up over an 82 game season.

 

[BrianFromWA]

These threads are always funny to me, to see how many people are riding Rubio's jock like a pogo stick when the kid is essentially a high school senior and has hardly any experience playing against NBA-level guys.

Honestly, how many of you get boners when you see a grainy youtube highlight video with the trapezoid key with a hip-hop soundtrack behind it? Be honest.

OMG draft him! DRAFT HIM!

Honestly, whatever team drafts him should print up his jersey with "OMG Rubio" on the back insted of just "Rubio."

-Pop

I don't get erections based off of YouTube. Maybe I'm looking at the wrong ones.

I'm sorry...right now he's the only player projected in the first round of the draft that has played a game against K*be, CP3, Deron Williams, Jason Kidd and LBJ. It happened to be the olympic final. Does Blake Griffin have more experience? JOnny Flynn? Harden? Please, tell me when to stop.

I pray for the chance to get an OMG Rubio Jersey in Blazer colors.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Rubio in Europe last season.

EuroLeague

G - 5
MinPG - 13.2
PPG - 2.4
RPG - 2.4
APG - 2.8
TOPG - 2.4
SPG - 1.8

FG - 30%
3PT - 33%
FT - 72%

ACB

G - 22
MinPG - 23
PPG - 10
RPG - 1.9
APG - 6.1
TOPG - 3.0
SPG - 2.2

FG - 39%
3PT - 42%
FT - 80%

Again, I see some obvious holes in his offensive game. I am also concerned at how well his body will hold up over an 82 game season.

Agree with the bolded part, and somewhat with the "obvious holes". Of course he could get a better J, but (and we talked about this in other threads) I would've loved (like the BlazersEdge guys) to see Oden and LMA get every shot Blake took last year. Now that's really extreme, but I think this team's efficiency goes UP with a PG that lives to facilitate his bigs getting the ball in scoring position, rather than a 3-pt specialist.

 

[Blaze01]

I don't really understand your point. Trading for Paul, Parker, and Nash would dramatically change the team next year and adjustments would be made. Trading for Rubio may actually set the team back if he starts, and that's without completely changing the offense.

To say you shouldn't draft a guy because he doesn't fit your offense (as if this isn't a fluid thing anyway) is short sighted IMO...

So the positives (their talent) outweighs the negatives (doesn't fit our half court style) by a large margin (as was the attempt to make the point clearer)...So if Pritchard & company feel that Rubio's talent (be it right now! next year or in 2-3 years) outweighs the negatives (half court vs run or the fact that he only a rookie) then why would you not trade for him?

I don't know how good he is going to be, but a lot of pretty astute talent evaluators seem to think he is the real deal, and if POR mgmt concur, I certainly don't think Nate's "offensive philosophy" is going to be a factor...at all...

I mean if you knew what Paul, Deron Williams or even Derrick Rose were going to be before you drafted them, wouldn't you make just about any deal to get them?

Of course you would....I would surmise then that if POR did trade up for Rubio, it would be because they felt that he projected to be a very good NBA caliber talent...and after thier past few drafts I certainly can't see any reason to doubt them...

Can you?

 

[SodaPopinski]

He has more experience playing against NBA-level guys than any players coming out of college.

Really? I beg to differ. I think a guy playing in one of the top conferences in the NCAA, through his AAU and college days (and some of them dating back to their prep days) has played against more guys with NBA talent. There are some top-level guys in the Euro leagues, but most of them are akin to D-League guys at best.

And if you think that playing for several years at high levels of basketball in Europe is like a kid playing in high school... hmm. I guess we'll just have to disagree.

Ed O.

No. For the most part, the high levels in Europe are much more advanced. But I'm talking about a physical maturity. In most cases, I'd much rather have a guy who has gone through the rigors of American ball up until he's 21 or 22.

Who knows ... maybe Rubio would be fantastic. I just don't see his game translating as well as most of you do. The Euro game allows for a more up-and-down pace, especially since you play about 1/3 as many games with significantly less travel. Does anyone really think an 18-year-old body, playing that style, is going to hold up for 5 summer league games, 5-10 international team games, 8 preseason games, 82 regular season games, and X number of playoff games?

-Pop

 

[Blaze01]

Again, I see some obvious holes in his offensive game while playing against players with a fraction of the athleticism that is found every night in the NBA. I am also concerned at how well his body will hold up over an 82 game season.

You realize he was playing with an injured wrist for most of the year...don't you?

 

[Crimson the Cat]

These threads are always funny to me, to see how many people are riding Rubio's jock like a pogo stick when the kid is essentially a high school senior and has hardly any experience playing against NBA-level guys.

Honestly, how many of you get boners when you see a grainy youtube highlight video with the trapezoid key with a hip-hop soundtrack behind it? Be honest.

OMG draft him! DRAFT HIM!

Honestly, whatever team drafts him should print up his jersey with "OMG Rubio" on the back insted of just "Rubio."

-Pop

I don't get it. Are the scouts, coaches, players and managers also wrongly sweating him? Maybe it's you that's not recognizing the special talent right in front of you.

 

[PapaG]

You realize he was playing wiht an injured wrist for most of the year...don't you?

That kind of speaks to my concern of how he will hold up playing 4x the games, doesn't it? Also, he shot 42% from 3PT in 22 ACB games, so I have to assume the wrist was OK at that point.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Who knows ... maybe Rubio would be fantastic. I just don't see his game translating as well as most of you do. The Euro game allows for a more up-and-down pace, especially since you play about 1/3 as many games with significantly less travel. Does anyone really think an 18-year-old body, playing that style, is going to hold up for 5 summer league games, 5-10 international team games, 8 preseason games, 82 regular season games, and X number of playoff games?

Nope. But neither did Blake's. Or Deron Williams'. Or Gilbert Arenas'. etc

So, just so I'm understanding, are you saying that Jonny Flynn's or Jrue Holiday's or Stephen Curry's body is going to make it through that schedule? Or that no rookie's will, so we may as well get a horse like Baron Davis or Gil Arenas or Andre Miller or Mike Bibby instead and eschew getting rookies anymore?

 

[PapaG]

I don't get it. Are the scouts, coaches, players and managers also wrongly sweating him? Maybe it's you that's not recognizing the special talent right in front of you.

Most experts wonder if Blake Griffin will be a consistent All-Star level player, yet he is the consensus #1 pick. How does that automatically mean Rubio is going to be an elite NBA PG when he isn't even the consensus #1 player in this draft?

 

[BrianFromWA]

I think that, in scouts' and GM's eyes, bigs are always more valuable. Weren't Rose and Iverson the only PGs taken #1 since Magic? Rubio's been pretty consistently the #2, though, iirc.

 

[RR7]

So do you feel he's going to bust, PapG, or just you don't think he makes us better NEXT year. I don't think too many disagree with you on that. I think most that want him want him to be a backup for us for a year or two, to get acclimated to the NBA, and then have him hopefully be our starter, while bringing in, hopefully, a vet to start the next couple years.

 

[Crimson the Cat]

Why are so many of you posting results without acknowledging his age and injuries. Pretty hard to debate rubio if people continue to look the other way to prove their case.

 

[PapaG]

Why are so many of you posting results without acknowledging his age and injuries. Pretty hard to debate rubio if people continue to look the other way to prove their case.

One of my points in the first post is his age and how it impacts the Blazers over next year and perhaps the next 2-3 years. Did you even read the thread? The injuries have also been addressed by me and another poster wondering about Rubio's ability to stay healthy over a much longer schedule and playing many more minutes (and man-to-man defense as opposed to cherry-picking in a zone).