Sam Smith: Andre Miller to Blazers

[number 10]

Do you really think any team will offer the 33-year old Miller a 5-year contract? Because oi his age, the over-36 rule would apply to the final two years of a 5-year contract. That means the salary for those final two seasons would be considered "deferred compensation" and would actually count against the team's cap (and I believe luxury tax) during the first 3 years of the contract.

And, here's the killer, due to the over-36 rule, teams over the cap would not be able to offer Miller the full MLE. The amount they can offer him in starting salary would be reduced by the amount of deferred compensation (final two years of salary) divided over the first 3 years of the contract. So, in effect, a team over the cap can only offer Miller a 5-year contract at a starting salary of about 60% of the full MLE.

The over-36 rule is complex. You can read the details here.

BNM

congratulations on your raise, Mr. Penn.

 

[crandc]

Just out of curiosity, does anyone know what percentage of Sam Smith's predictions/prophecies have come true?

 

[Masbee]

Do you really think any team will offer the 33-year old Miller a 5-year contract? Because oi his age, the over-36 rule would apply to the final two years of a 5-year contract. That means the salary for those final two seasons would be considered "deferred compensation" and would actually count against the team's cap (and I believe luxury tax) during the first 3 years of the contract.

And, here's the killer, due to the over-36 rule, teams over the cap would not be able to offer Miller the full MLE. The amount they can offer him in starting salary would be reduced by the amount of deferred compensation (final two years of salary) divided over the first 3 years of the contract. So, in effect, a team over the cap can only offer Miller a 5-year contract at a starting salary of about 60% of the full MLE.

The over-36 rule is complex. You can read the details here.

BNM

Didn't know about that. Thanks for the info.

That blunts the ability and interest in many teams offering him more than a 3 year deal.

I still feel that my point about there being more teams interested in Miller than you originally listed is valid.

Their ability and willingness to pay the man is a different issue entirely.

As for the Blazers being in the catbird seat and being able to snatch Miller for a guaranteed 2 year $15 mil contract as you suggest, I still find to be unlikely. If Miller would sign for $15mil with us, he could sign for the same money over 3 years for most any team using the MLE - Lakers, Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, and Miami. Philly who has his bird rights, can pay him more or construct a sign-and-trade that we aren't even considering. You don't think Philly would pay more than $15mil to keep Miller around?

I don't think Miller comes here if the Blazers try to lowball him or get him dirt cheap (ie, 3 yrs $15mil). He will have too many alternatives if that is all we offer him. Not offering him more when we easily could have, will send him the message that we don't want him all that much. Based on your info, it seems the Blazers would have to present him with a guaranteed 3 year deal starting at appx $7mil per (whatever their "easy" cap space is). Hopefully, the market is down enough so that deal will be enough.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Looks like Miller wants to kick it in South Beach.
http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/columnists/barry-jackson/story/1056431.html

Point guard Andre Miller has interest in the Heat if the 76ers don't keep him, an associate said. But unless he takes the $5 million midlevel exception, that would require a sign and trade -- something Miami would not do if it meant cutting into 2010 salary-cap space.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Didn't know about that. Thanks for the info.

That blunts the ability and interest in many teams offering him more than a 3 year deal.

I still feel that my point about there being more teams interested in Miller than you originally listed is valid.

Their ability and willingness to pay the man is a different issue entirely.

As for the Blazers being in the catbird seat and being able to snatch Miller for a guaranteed 2 year $15 mil contract as you suggest, I still find to be unlikely.

My original suggestion was a 2 (or 3) year deal with an additional team option year - whichever it takes to get it done. The over-36 rule also plays a part in how much the Blazers can offer him as anything beyond 3 years is considered deferred compensation and counts against the cap during the first three years. So, the starting salary goes down as the length of the contract goes up. It may actually work out better for Miller to take a shorter guraranteed deal at a larger starting salary than to angle for a longer term deal that would limit his salary during the first three years of the contract.

Since the Blazers will have cap space, they can still offer him more money (both starting and long term) than teams that are over the cap. That's a big advantage in their favor.

Philly who has his bird rights, can pay him more or construct a sign-and-trade that we aren't even considering. You don't think Philly would pay more than $15mil to keep Miller around?

Actually, I don't think the 76ers are likely to offer Miller a significant contract in either dollars or length. One reason - Elton Brand. That huge contract Brand signed last off season really kills the 76ers ability to re-sign Miller. With just nine players under contract, not counting Miller, the 76ers are already slightly above the projecte salary cap for 2009-2010. Re-signing Miller, plus enough other bodies to fill out their roster, could push them over the luxury tax threshold. And re-signing Miller to a multi-year deal will impact their ability to re-sign some of their younger players (Thad Young, Speights, Jason Smith) that are still on rookie contracts. Brand is owned over $65 million over the next 4 years. Iguodala is owed $67 million over the next five years. That really limits how much they can spend on re-signing Miller. Sure, they hold his Bird rights and can go over the cap to re-sign him, but are they willing to go into luxury tax territory to do so?

I don't think Miller comes here if the Blazers try to lowball him or get him dirt cheap (ie, 3 yrs $15mil). He will have too many alternatives if that is all we offer him. Not offering him more when we easily could have, will send him the message that we don't want him all that much. Based on your info, it seems the Blazers would have to present him with a guaranteed 3 year deal starting at appx $7mil per (whatever their "easy" cap space is). Hopefully, the market is down enough so that deal will be enough.

I'm not suggesting the Blazers lowball him, just that there won't be many other teams that could beat our offer. So, no need to go to drastic measures or overpay him. A 3-year deal starting at about $7 million seems doable and probably more than Miller would get elsewhere. It would also allow the Blazers to use their other assets (young, cheap players like Outlaw and Webster, the trade exception, etc.) to address other needs.

BNM

 

[shamelessblazer]

I want Andre Miller (signed) or Steve Nash with either:

Ricky Rubio or Brandon Jennings along with Peterri Koponen behind one of them.

For the next year we can rely heavily on Miller/Rudy/Roy then slowly phase out Miller or Nash.

The way I see it we've got Outlaw and Bayless as the main bait to dangle.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I want Andre Miller (signed) or Steve Nash with either:

Ricky Rubio or Brandon Jennings along with Peterri Koponen behind one of them.

For the next year we can rely heavily on Miller/Rudy/Roy then slowly phase out Miller or Nash.

The way I see it we've got Outlaw and Bayless as the main bait to dangle.

We're not getting Rubio and we're not getting Jennings. Fugedaboutit.

 

[MAS RipCity]

jennings is telfair v 2.0

 

[Reep]

We're not getting Rubio and we're not getting Jennings. Fugedaboutit.

There is no way we are getting the two best players in the draft, that would be impossible. Roy and Aldridge cannot both end up in Portland.

 

[cdub503]

There is no way we are getting the two best players in the draft, that would be impossible. Roy and Aldridge cannot both end up in Portland.

lol hes got a point! but why get both rubio and jennings id be happy with either or!

 

[Reep]

Getting Rubio is a huge long shot. I would have said impossible except for the statement that he doesn't wan't to play in Memphis. That opened the door. Memphis has the #2 pick and will take Rubio--they have to. The question is, if Rubio isn't bluffing, then were will they trade him? Portland has several nice pieces, jut not ones that the Grizz need (PF). If you can find the right third team, then anything is possible.

I wouldn't be upset if we signed Miller and let Bayless progress. Rubio is fun to think about too, but Miller will help us win in the next two years. I'm not sure about Rubio during that time.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Well, I guess it finally happened.

 

[Tyler_Hansbrough]

Miller will cost more than a max MLE deal.

What is the max MLE?

 

[number 10]

Well, I guess it finally happened.

throw enough shit against the wall and eventually something will stick.