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http://www.sbnation.com/2013/12/30/5247416/new-york-knicks-defense-breakdown
UNDER THE MICROCSOPE
We take a look at one player each week that is either struggling or has displayed strong skill development.
I've seen many odd shot charts over the past few years, but this one might be the strangest.
It belongs to Damian Lillard, the second-year point guard currently becoming a star for the Portland Trail Blazers. It shows a player that hits nearly half of his wing three-pointers, yet can't even shoot 40 percent in the paint. Only two guards -- Marquis Teague and Ricky Rubio -- have taken more than 40 shots inside of five feet and shot a lower percentage than Lillard's 40.6 percent.
Is this a weird statistical quirk, or is Lillard really that bad at finishing around the rim?
It might be the former to some degree. Lillard shot 50 percent in the paint last year, which still isn't great, but isn't as awful as this season. While he may not be finishing well, he is drawing more fouls, going to the line 5.4 times/36 minutes this season as opposed to 3.6 last year, per Basketball Reference. And, of course, this seasons is only two months old.
But watching Lillard on film reveals some issues. Most notably, Lillard is a very poor finisher with his left hand. A rough count of his 155 shot attempts inside of five feet revealed 51 missed left-handed shots and only 19 conversions. His left hand just isn't strong enough to control the trajectory of the ball around the basket consistently enough. This wild finish against DeJuan Blair shows how little touch Lillard has when trying to go to his left.
It also exposed some other issues that affect Lillard when he finishes with either hand. Rather than go straight into Blair, who isn't a shot-blocker, Lillard veers away to the side and tries to get too cute. This is especially problematic when attacking shot-blockers with long arms. The reverse angle of this GIF gives us an idea of how Lillard often shies away from big men like Andre Drummond.
He comes off the pick and roll and could jump into and power through Drummond using his strength, but instead, he slides to the right, allowing Drummond to use his long arms to make the shot more difficult.
You'll also see Lillard double-clutching often when attacking players instead of just going through them, like on this righty attempt against Josh Smith.
Double-clutching is a no-no for guards trying to score at the rim because it removes their greatest weapon: The power developed from accelerating to the basket off the dribble. When a guard double-clutches, it's as if he's restarting the attack. That's a huge advantage for the defender, whose arms are already up in the air, giving him the momentum. The best guards seize the forward progress gained from exploding to the rim and don't relinquish it by bringing the ball back down.
Perhaps this is a strength issue rather than a technical one. Lillard may know exactly what he must do, but may not yet have the body or confidence to carry it out. This botched finish over Anthony Davis was executed properly, with Lillard powering through Davis without double-clutching too much. It missed, though, because Lillard left a lefty layup short.
Blazers fans should hope that these issues, and not a problem that is more difficult to solve, are at the root of Lillard's struggles. It's not uncommon for young guards to struggle finishing at the rim early in their careers because they're not used to the type of length that's present at the NBA level.
Nevertheless, Lillard must decide what kind of guard he really is. If he thinks he can be explosive enough to power through defenders, he may want to prioritize getting stronger and jumping into shot blockers. If he thinks he's better off being elusive, he needs to develop his touch, especially with his left hand.
