Schilly's Summer Shakeup

[Schilly]

I have been thinking about this summer a lot, I am sure we all have. I have come up with a plan of what I would do if I were in Olsheys shoes... Or at least what I would attempt to do.

1st a few observations about the team.

1. I want Dame to be more of the PG, What I mean is I want him handling the ball and making things happen, more than he did this past season.
2. The Blazers lack Slashers who go at the rim, with or without the ball. Slashing creates movement and unpredictability.
3. The Blazers need a more legit threat in the paint. This helps spread the floor for our shooters (Dame,LA, CJ, ML)
4. The Blazers need more consistency especially from one particular position.
5. A scrappy hustle player is needed in the starting lineup, a defensive wing to harass perimeter players.

Thoughts about going forward. I think the team is currently positioned well, but I think if we addressed those issues above the team would be better, maybe not better on paper, but better on the floor. In addition I don't want the team to get older by targeting players over 27 or so, but I don't want to go all in on going younger than about 24-25, and I mean not trading a vet for a draft pick unless a vet is coming back too. Afflalo is expected to exercise his option and stay. Freeland is expected to head back to Europe.

So all that said, here's my go big or go home plan for this summer.

1. Use the draft pick to take a scrappy defensive SF, Hollis-Jefferson might be available there, if not him the Justin Anderson.
2. Re-Sign Lamarcus. I am pretty sure he will be back, but other moves don't require it at this point.
3. Use Batum in a S&T for Greg Monroe. Greg brings a paint scorer and rebounder we lack. Not a shot blocker but not terrible on D either,
4. Re-Sign Wesley Matthews
5. Go after Al-Farouq Aminu as a defensive SF who slashes. Backup plan re-sign Dorrell Wright

Unfortunately these moves lead to Robin leaving the Blazers.... Unless Lamarcus leaves as a FA, in which case we re-sign Robin and move Monroe to the PF spot.

Lineup

PG Lillard / Blake / Frazier

SG Matthews / CJ

SF Aminu / Afflalo / Rookie

PF Aldridge / Leonard

C Monroe / Kaman

Beyond that fill in the remaining 3 spots with Jouneymen Vet Minimum guys.

 

[OSUBlazerfan]

I dont think there is any way we keep all three; Wes/CJ/Afflalo

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

I don't like playing Monroe next to Aldridge. I want a defensive center like hibbert or Chandler instead.

If afflalo stays, we have to trade batum for value this summer. Only if it's the right deal of course, but no way we can let Wes go.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I don't like playing Monroe next to Aldridge. I want a defensive center like hibbert or Chandler instead.

If afflalo stays, we have to trade batum for value this summer. Only if it's the right deal of course, but no way we can let Wes go.

Agreed. If LA stays, deal Batum for Hibbert and let Rolo walk. If LA leaves, trade Batum for Monroe and keep Rolo.

I dont think there is any way we keep all three; Wes/CJ/Afflalo

Also agreed. And we should try to keep Wright as backup SF, regardless. And I think Schilly forgot about Crabbe.

 

[Reep]

I dont think there is any way we keep all three; Wes/CJ/Afflalo

That's not really within the team's control. Likely they want Wes back. CJ will be staying. Afflalo has a player option so he gets to decide if he stays or not. The only control they have over that situation is if they decide Wes is unlikely to recover and they go in a different direction.

 

[OSUBlazerfan]

That's not really within the team's control. Likely they want Wes back. CJ will be staying. Afflalo has a player option so he gets to decide if he stays or not. The only control they have over that situation is if they decide Wes is unlikely to recover and they go in a different direction.

You think Afflalo will pick up his option?

 

[Orion Bailey]

You think Afflalo will pick up his option?

I might have missed it, but when does he have to decide? That is probably the key. I am sure he would like to see what the team does with Wes. If the team lets Wes go, there are 30 minutes a night for Afflalo, potentially starting.

 

[BigGameDamian]

I dont think there is any way we keep all three; Wes/CJ/Afflalo

No to mention, if Wes and/or Aldridge don't sign this plan falls apart.

 

[riverman]

I would re-sign DWright in a heartbeat. He could fill the 3 spot without a hitch. Crabbe and Wright are solid SF types and both decent defenders. Rolo is replaceable. The closer the deadline gets for LA's decision the more I think we trade Nico even if his value is in the dumpster now. Freeland needs a change of scenery...Meyers took his job.

 

[Blazer4ever]

Lillard/Gillis*/Frazier
CJ/Jackson**/Crabbe
LMA/Gee/Shved
Love/Leonard/Capela
Rolo/Freeland

*Warren Gillis, University of Coastal Carolina
**Joe Jackson, NBDL

 

[illmatic99]

Lineup

PG Lillard / Blake / Frazier

SG Matthews / CJ

SF Aminu / Afflalo / Rookie

PF Aldridge / Leonard

C Monroe / Kaman

Beyond that fill in the remaining 3 spots with Jouneymen Vet Minimum guys.

So to summarize: Nic and Rolo for Monroe and Aminu?

In the process, we're pretty much locked into this roster for the near future, and no major expiring contracts before the cap increase in a year?

Not too bad. Would hate to lose Nic, especially because he is so valuable when he's engaged. He becomes a FA right when the cap goes up so we don't need him taking up 15 mil of the cap in a year. Prolly the right time to move him.

 

[illmatic99]

You think Afflalo will pick up his option?

Guessing he will. Much better financial decision to wait a year to redeem himself and hit the market next year when there will be a lot more money available.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

No to Greg Monroe. No to trading Batum for anyone who does not replicate his skillset.

No also to Anderson - he screams "Alonzo Gee lite" to me.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I also think you don't mess with Lillard's game. Don't tell him to be something he's not.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

No to Greg Monroe. No to trading Batum for anyone who does not replicate his skillset.

I also think you don't mess with Lillard's game. Don't tell him to be something he's not.

Ever heard the phrase, "Do what you've always done and you'll get what you've always got"? People think the team needs to evolve. If not in either of those ways, what changes would you make?

 

[1eyejack]

Agree Schilly definitely need a slasher/energy guy. after signing LA this would be one of my top priorities. Wes supplied some of that last year and when he went down we lost our spark. Personally would like to see a change at starting SG and at SF.

Sorry Dave

I'd love to trade for another big like Monroe.

 

[Schilly]

Monroe would be the best offensive post player we have had since... Z-bo? Sabonis? Defensive rating of 103, 11.9 reb per 36 and a PER of 21.1 Compared to Hibbert with a defensive rating of 101 grabs 10 reb per 36 and has a PER of 15.4. Monroe is also 4 years younger than Hibbert. Lopez had a defensive rating of 104, grabbed under 9 reb per 36 and had a PER of 16.2. But Monroe isn't a shot blocker I will grant that.

The reason for going after Monroe specifically is he is a very good scorer inside 10 feet, and doesn't stray outside of that much at all. His defense is no worse than Lopez, and he's a better rebounder. But there's more. He can play high post low post with Lamarcus, inside out with Leonard and Dame. If Lamarcus leaves asa FA, we will be going into rebuild mode. Start it off quickly with a 24 year old Center/PF with Lillard.

Batum... oy Batum. He is so inconsistent with his "engagement" level. This team relied so much on him being engaged, unfortunately he loses his focus every year around January. I think it's time to move on from Batum, we need consistent energy and defense more than we need a Point forward that sleep walks half the season. I would rather have Wes than Afflalo but I think Aaron exercises his option and comes back. All he would get this summer is MLE at best. He will make much more than that with his existing contract this season coming up, then the MLE goes up next summer. I think we hang on to him and use him as trade bait near the deadline, unless we really need to hang on to him.

Look I love the team this season, but I seriously don't see it as a Title contender, even if it had remained healthy. The Blazers rely too heavily on jump shooting, and IMO have gotten lethargic with Nic as our point forward, he is far too passive and inconsistent in effort.

 

[1eyejack]

Great post Schilly. Described Batum perfectly, sad part is I bet he plays well after a trade because he will be energized again. Really love to get top 10 pick for him or player like Hibbert/Monroe (obviously other peices or draft picks would need to be involved)

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Ever heard the phrase, "Do what you've always done and you'll get what you've always got"? People think the team needs to evolve. If not in either of those ways, what changes would you make?

Okay, I'll explain.

1. Monroe doesn't help. He's been putting up great numbers for shitty teams for a while. Y'know, just like Al Jefferson. He's a poor defender and poor outside shooter, so he doesn't fit our gameplan.
2. I'm not saying Lillard can't improve, I'm just saying not in that way. There's things you can improve in a player, but "giving them better court sense" is not one of them. I don't think we necessarily need a prototypical PG. Steve Nash and John Stockton never won a title - I'd prefer a team where the ball moves around and nobody is The One Person In Charge. (Chris Paul is fucking awesome but can't get out of the second round.) PLUS: Lillard has great winshares (or whatever) and real plus minus ALREADY - he's not the problem. If you want him to work on his game, have him work on his defense. If you have him second guessing his offense it'll hurt us more than help us.

What changes would I make? CHANGES TO THE BENCH. (As I have said ad infinitum) when all our starters were healthy we had a top 5 offense AND defense, but the bench was always mediocre. Now, some of that will happen automatically as CJ and Leonard improve. But yes, we could do with better defense and a better backup PG. I think those should be got through free agency, and you CAN get vital bench cogs that way, even if you don't have that much money. Look at Shaun Livingston. You can get someone like Dellevadova fairly cheap. Backup bigs are pricier, so (a) hope Joel Freeland can be healthy, and (b) maybe target a veteran with Kaman's expiring deal (perhaps Carl Landry from Sacto).

Here's what you DON'T do: fuck with the starters. Bring back Wesley (yes, I know - will he be the same after injury? I dunno. But (a) his game was never about athleticism, and (b) Jason Kidd had the same issue and won a title precisely with gutty defense and a good three point shot. Like Wesley. But you absolutely have to have Wesley because he was proven to be vital by the way we collapsed when he went. ) Don't trade Batum. Once again, for emphasis: HIS WRIST WAS FUCKED UP LAST YEAR. He's healing (but also working out) and has openly admitted last season was a down year. (But even with that, we had top five etc. etc.)

Of course, if LA buggers off then fuck everything. But even then you don't sign Greg "empty numbers" Monroe.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

It's all very well saying get rid of Batum, but as he's coming off a down year you're not going to get value for him, and there's a reason he plays so many minutes - he does the little things that let our "stars" look good. If he's so fucking lazy, why did he lead THE ENTIRE LEAGUE in distance covered on the court a year ago? (And again finish among the leaders this year.)

 

[Schilly]

Batum always has nagging excuses.... errr injuries for the 2nd half of most seasons, shoulder, knee wrist, etc...etc...

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Okay, I'll explain.

1. Monroe doesn't help. He's been putting up great numbers for shitty teams for a while. Y'know, just like Al Jefferson. He's a poor defender and poor outside shooter, so he doesn't fit our gameplan.
2. I'm not saying Lillard can't improve, I'm just saying not in that way. There's things you can improve in a player, but "giving them better court sense" is not one of them. I don't think we necessarily need a prototypical PG. Steve Nash and John Stockton never won a title - I'd prefer a team where the ball moves around and nobody is The One Person In Charge. (Chris Paul is fucking awesome but can't get out of the second round.) PLUS: Lillard has great winshares (or whatever) and real plus minus ALREADY - he's not the problem. If you want him to work on his game, have him work on his defense. If you have him second guessing his offense it'll hurt us more than help us.

What changes would I make? CHANGES TO THE BENCH. (As I have said ad infinitum) when all our starters were healthy we had a top 5 offense AND defense, but the bench was always mediocre. Now, some of that will happen automatically as CJ and Leonard improve. But yes, we could do with better defense and a better backup PG. I think those should be got through free agency, and you CAN get vital bench cogs that way, even if you don't have that much money. Look at Shaun Livingston. You can get someone like Dellevadova fairly cheap. Backup bigs are pricier, so (a) hope Joel Freeland can be healthy, and (b) maybe target a veteran with Kaman's expiring deal (perhaps Carl Landry from Sacto).

Here's what you DON'T do: fuck with the starters. Bring back Wesley (yes, I know - will he be the same after injury? I dunno. But (a) his game was never about athleticism, and (b) Jason Kidd had the same issue and won a title precisely with gutty defense and a good three point shot. Like Wesley. But you absolutely have to have Wesley because he was proven to be vital by the way we collapsed when he went. ) Don't trade Batum. Once again, for emphasis: HIS WRIST WAS FUCKED UP LAST YEAR. He's healing (but also working out) and has openly admitted last season was a down year. (But even with that, we had top five etc. etc.)

Of course, if LA buggers off then fuck everything. But even then you don't sign Greg "empty numbers" Monroe.

I'd argue that once he had a decent team around him (Brandon Jennings, Andre Drummond, no Josh Simth), the Pistons were a pretty good team. If Jennings had not been injured, they would likely have made the playoffs. I agree that I wouldn't want him as a front-court mate with Aldridge, but I don't think he's anywhere near as worthless as you make him out to be, especially considering his post-passing ability.

As for the starters...I see where you're coming from. My concern is the cost. If Wes, Rolo and Aldridge are going to cost a combined $15-20M more next year than they did this year, it would seem that we should be able to allocate those funds more effectively.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I'd argue that once he had a decent team around him (Brandon Jennings, Andre Drummond, no Josh Simth), the Pistons were a pretty good team. If Jennings had not been injured, they would likely have made the playoffs. I agree that I wouldn't want him as a front-court mate with Aldridge, but I don't think he's anywhere near as worthless as you make him out to be, especially considering his post-passing ability.

MAYbe...

As for the starters...I see where you're coming from. My concern is the cost. If Wes, Rolo and Aldridge are going to cost a combined $15-20M more next year than they did this year, it would seem that we should be able to allocate those funds more effectively.

Yes, it's going to cost us money to re-sign them, but (a) other teams would be willing to pay that cost, so that should determine that they're worth it, or (b) if we have to pay more then that's the price of (i) small market teams, (ii) rewarding loyalty. You can't really avoid those.

As for allocating the funds more effectively - how? Maybe in a free market but the NBA is not that. There's a salary cap that stops you spending money.

Hey, if we could attract Marc Gasol, Draymond Green and Khris Middleton, I'd be all for it. But we (99.99% certainly) can't. We'll be lucky to keep the guys we have.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Yes, it's going to cost us money to re-sign them, but (a) other teams would be willing to pay that cost, so that should determine that they're worth it, or (b) if we have to pay more then that's the price of (i) small market teams, (ii) rewarding loyalty. You can't really avoid those.

Often teams are willing to pay more than a player's actual contribution to their prior team is worth, with the assumption that they'll play/provide a larger role on the new team than on the old one. I think that's very possible with our FA starters (yes, even Aldridge).

As for allocating the funds more effectively - how? Maybe in a free market but the NBA is not that. There's a salary cap that stops you spending money.

Hibbert/Aminu in place of Rolo/Batum would, in my mind, be a better use of dollars. If Aldridge leaves, Monroe could fill his spot well for significantly less.

I love Wes, so I basically want to keep him regardless.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

2. I'm not saying Lillard can't improve, I'm just saying not in that way. There's things you can improve in a player, but "giving them better court sense" is not one of them.

By the way, is Curry's massive improvement in PG ability (30% increase in assists/assist%) not an argument in favor of Lillard potentially being able to make that same jump?

 

[RR7]

Batum always has nagging excuses.... errr injuries for the 2nd half of most seasons, shoulder, knee wrist, etc...etc...

Would you believe, then, that over his career, Nic has consistently shot better after the All Star break. I'd expect with nagging injuries ad the wear and tear from team france, we consistently see his numbers go down as seasons go on, but it doesn't seem to.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Hibbert/Aminu in place of Rolo/Batum would, in my mind, be a better use of dollars. If Aldridge leaves, Monroe could fill his spot well for significantly less.

I absolutely disagree with this. Aminu can do ONE thing, and that's defend. He can't shoot (although he tries) and he certainly can't replicate Batum's PG role. He's a scrub! He bounces around the league on short term contracts!

Hibbert a couple of years ago, maybe. But he'll be paid FIFTEEN MILLION DOLLARS next year! And the Pacers have essentially said "please take him off our hands, we don't want him". That's really a better use of our money?

 

[Rastapopoulos]

By the way, is Curry's massive improvement in PG ability (30% increase in assists/assist%) not an argument in favor of Lillard potentially being able to make that same jump?

First, Curry could always pass better than Lillard. Second, I bet his assist% increase has more to do with Klay and Barnes (who do not need the ball in their hands, and in fact, can't do much with if they don't shoot) replacing the more ball-dominant Ellis and more recently Iggy. But third, Steph Curry is a magic unicorn. Compare others to him at your peril.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

First, Curry could always pass better than Lillard. Second, I bet his assist% increase has more to do with Klay and Barnes (who do not need the ball in their hands, and in fact, can't do much with if they don't shoot) replacing the more ball-dominant Ellis and more recently Iggy. But third, Steph Curry is a magic unicorn. Compare others to him at your peril.

In his rookie year, Dame's assist figures were very close to Steph's 4th year (both 2012-13), which mirrored his first 3 years. In that year, GSW had Barnes and Thompson, and did not have Ellis. His assists jumped the year after that.

Perhaps Batum's presence and role are compromising Lillard's PG development, similarly to how you suggest Ellis' did Curry's...

 

[blue9]

Perhaps Batum's presence and role are compromising Lillard's PG development...

That, or maybe the coach who doesn't know how to contend with a defense that double-teams his PG above the 3-point arc?