Should we be worried? (Re: Radiation fallout)

[Fez Hammersticks]

Here's an example of what could be carried over directly from Japan with the jet stream:


[video=youtube;fO6-96Pyi0o]

 

[MARIS61]

Yes, when you have an ex-military guy laughing about how easy it was for them to lie to the citizens rather than be honest with them about the threat, we should be worried. Seems to be the same game plan now.

The fact is just as it was back then, there's nothing the government/military can do to prevent radiation from getting here. All they can do is try to divert our attention, lie about the threat, and later deny the evidence of harm. Or they could be honest, help us with mitigating defense measures, prepare for the casualties.

 

[jlprk]

Here's a new article about risks. It contains a mixed bag of warnings and reassurances.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/storie...ME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-03-16-00-21-34

 

[Colonel Ronan]

Yes, when you have an ex-military guy laughing about how easy it was for them to lie to the citizens rather than be honest with them about the threat, we should be worried. Seems to be the same game plan now.

That is exactly what I was thinking when I watched this. What else are they lying to us about?

 

[jlprk]

I like the way this short Time article sorts events by reactor number.

REACTOR UNIT 1: There was an explosion in Unit 1 on Saturday. The blast tore off the wall and roof of the outer containment vessel, but reportedly left the reactor intact. Four people were injured in the blast and locals were subsequently ordered to leave the area. The reactor has since been filled with seawater to cool it down.

REACTOR UNIT 2: Late Monday night, workers noted that the unit was unstable. They injected seawater to avoid further damage to the reactor, but it didn't work: an explosion occurred the following morning at 6 a.m. The blast damaged the inner steel containment vessel and the cores of both reactors may have partially melted. It was then that Japanese officials acknowledged that radiation levels were becoming dangerous. The bulk of the plant's staff were asked to leave, though a small crew, now called the Fukushima 50, stayed back. Those workers were then asked to evacuate because of a spike in radiation levels. According to the BBC, they have now returned.

REACTOR UNIT 3: Right after the explosion at Unit 1, a hydrogen explosion occurred at the third reactor, tearing away the outer frame of the building. Currently, the third unit is under inspection and not operational.

REACTOR UNIT 4: Reported to be offline at the time of the tsunami, Unit 4 caught fire on Tuesday morning. That occurred shortly after the explosion at Unit 2. The reactor erupted as a result of pressure buildup within the structure again on Wednesday, setting the outer walls ablaze. Fire and smoke can no longer be seen, but Japanese nuclear agency officials were unable to confirm if the fire has been put out. In order to contain the incident, they are spraying seawater and boric acid over the structure.

REACTOR UNIT 5 & 6: Nothing has occurred at the fifth and sixth reactors. Both units were not operating when the quake hit.

http://newsfeed.time.com/2011/03/16/reactor-redux-whats-happening-at-fukushima-daiichi/

 

[bluefrog]

I posted this in the other thread. I've updated the link to the latest monitoring results

LINK to TEPCO's radiation readings.

1st column - date(m/d)
2nd column - time (h/m)
3rd column - reading location (various locations near the reactor. Most recent ones are taken at the main gate.)
4th column - radiation level (uSV/h, A CT scan is about 6,900 uSv)
5th column - neutron line? (I don't know how to translate this)
6th column - wind direction (南 = south　東 = east　西 = west　北 = north)
7th column - wind speed

You can see a big spike at 12:30 in the morning (10,850 uSv/h)

 

[Eastoff]

No.

 

[jlprk]

You mean worried about our selfish selves? The answer is no, that radiation will cross the Pacific to us.

The answer is yes, that this and the tidal wave will cost Japan over a hundred billion dollars, set its already-troubled economy back a couple of years, knock down the worldwide stock market, and thus make it more probable that our own current recession is permanent.

The US stock market has sunk every day this week, and Japan is given as the cause.

Bluefrog, I'm trying to read your link, but not successfully.

 

[Masbee]

No.

There is an unlikely scenario where everything goes (further) wrong (from your perspective) and radioactive particles that could be damaging to long-term health, but not a threat to your immediate survival, are deposited in you area.

What is required? (1)Full reactor meltdown; (2)that happens just so, so that it results in a large explosion, (3)with radioactive material shot very high up the air, (4) so that some material is caught in the jetstream, (5) and at that moment the jetstream happens to be pointed right in your direction, (6) and dispersal is minimized due to a certain type of focused air current, and (7) when it arrives over your head - it rains, thus delivering to you the gift of maximum radioactive material, as, of course, (8) you are standing outside, in the nude.

You would know all of this was happening, if it were to start happening, so it would be your choice to stay as safe as possible if you wanted to.

 

[jlprk]

What is required?...(7) when it arrives over your head...(8) you are standing outside, in the nude.

You didn't address the economic effects, which I had just done.

Your answer is like saying, would the U.S. fighting a war in Libya affect the U.S.? No, because how would the Libyan army get here from across the ocean? You'd have to be standing nude outside right under an attacking airplane.

 

[MARIS61]

1-5 have already occurred, and 6-8 are silly concoctions of your state of denial.

The radiation will reach us. That much is certain. The jet stream brings everything to us eventually. It spreads out across most of N. America and completely blankets the US.

Any 7th grade Earth Science class will show you the proof of that.

NY cows had a measurable increase in radioactive iodine in them from Chernobyl, but our government concealed that fact for over a decade to protect the dairy industry at the cost of citizens' health.

Our own nation's nuke tests in the 50's and 60's exposed every American on every inch of American soil to radiation. The estimates for a national average of exposure is 2-10 rads, but states to the north and west of Nevada received considerably higher doses. Thyroid cancer incidence has nearly doubled since 1947.

This article really puts radiation effects in a simple perspective, with no distortions, diversions, or deceptions.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/15/us-japan-quake-radiation-idUSTRE72E14R20110315

The various radioactive pollutants from nuclear energy around the world are likely responsible for the bulk of the alarming increase in cancers since WWll.

 

[bluefrog]

Bluefrog, I'm trying to read your link, but not successfully.

Should work now

 

[Denny Crane]

1-5 have already occurred, and 6-8 are silly concoctions of your state of denial.

The radiation will reach us. That much is certain. The jet stream brings everything to us eventually. It spreads out across most of N. America and completely blankets the US.

Any 7th grade Earth Science class will show you the proof of that.

NY cows had a measurable increase in radioactive iodine in them from Chernobyl, but our government concealed that fact for over a decade to protect the dairy industry at the cost of citizens' health.

Our own nation's nuke tests in the 50's and 60's exposed every American on every inch of American soil to radiation. The estimates for a national average of exposure is 2-10 rads, but states to the north and west of Nevada received considerably higher doses. Thyroid cancer incidence has nearly doubled since 1947.

This article really puts radiation effects in a simple perspective, with no distortions, diversions, or deceptions.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/15/us-japan-quake-radiation-idUSTRE72E14R20110315

The various radioactive pollutants from nuclear energy around the world are likely responsible for the bulk of the alarming increase in cancers since WWll.

How's that slow and agonizing death thing working out for you?

 

[TripTango]

I posted this in the other thread. I've updated the link to the latest monitoring results

LINK to TEPCO's radiation readings.

1st column - date(m/d)
2nd column - time (h/m)
3rd column - reading location (various locations near the reactor. Most recent ones are taken at the main gate.)
4th column - radiation level (uSV/h, A CT scan is about 6,900 uSv)
5th column - neutron line? (I don't know how to translate this)
6th column - wind direction (南 = south　東 = east　西 = west　北 = north)
7th column - wind speed

You can see a big spike at 12:30 in the morning (10,850 uSv/h)

Interesting link -- thanks! Small corrections:

4th column - Gamma rays in nano-gray per hour (but you're right -- it switches to micro-Sieverts later! Odd...)
5th column - Neutron radiation in micro-sieverts per hour

 

[barfo]

There is an unlikely scenario where everything goes (further) wrong (from your perspective)

Is there someone from whose perspective this has gone right?

Well, I suppose from the perspective of the cesium atoms, yearning to be free, perhaps this is good news...

barfo

 

[TradeNurkicNow]

From my understanding, the plants didn't release radioactive material into the air via explosion, but the cores were vented intentionally following the disaster in order to release pressure. According to the Japanese, the ventilations didn't release enough radiation to be dangerous.

I've heard that the plants are completely different from the Chernobyl plant and that a large scale radiation scattering explosion is not at all likely. What is much more likely to happen is that there is a meltdown and the radiation seeps into the earth.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

THE PLUME IS COMING! THE PLUME IS COMING! THE PLUME IS COMING!

A United Nations forecast of the possible movement of the radioactive plume coming from crippled Japanese reactors shows it churning across the Pacific and touching the Aleutian Islands on Thursday before hitting Southern California late Friday.

To view the projected path of the death cloud click on link.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/03/16/science/plume-graphic.html?ref=science

Rest of article here - http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/17/science/17plume.html?_r=1

 

[Haakzilla]

The various radioactive pollutants from nuclear energy around the world are likely responsible for the bulk of the alarming increase in cancers since WWll.

...not to mention all of the toxic chemicals the FDA purposely approves as "safe" for human consumption, contaminated vaccines, lethal pharmaceuticals, and so on

 

[bluefrog]

Interesting link -- thanks! Small corrections:

4th column - Gamma rays in nano-gray per hour (but you're right -- it switches to micro-Sieverts later! Odd...)
5th column - Neutron radiation in micro-sieverts per hour

Thanks for the corrections. Are you in the nuclear energy industry?

Here are the latest readings: LINK

 

[BrianFromWA]

Sorry, I've been driving for most of the past 48 hours. Maybe someone can help "navy nuclear expert boy" out...

How many people since we had our conversation on Sunday/Monday worldwide have gone to the hospital with radiation sickness of any level? Is it still at 15, or are we all dying a slow, painful death from hundreds of rads of radiation zooming through our bodies?

And I'd say, barfo, that since the media (and people who believe social worker bloggers instead of qualified nuclear engineering experts) has been proclaiming that these reactors have been on the verge of "imminent and catastrophic meltdown" for almost a week now, and there's still only 20 people with doses large enough to send them to the hospital (and no uncontrolled containment breaches), that some very good work is being done over there and the defense-in-depth planning is being shown to be pretty damn good. I don't think anyone expected a scenario where the largest earthquake ever would hit the plant, knock out regular power, emergency power, backup generators, main coolant pumps, backup cooling pumps, and still have not a single person killed or seriously injured and no uncontrolled containment breach is significantly more safe than any person in the world could reasonably ask for. I don't think anyone has seen molten green rivers of sludge contaminating 30M Japanese people just trying to drink water, or had a plume of hundreds of rems of fallout dropping on their heads. Then again, I've been away from the computers and news shows, so I could be wrong.

Has this been escalated to a higher threat disaster level than 3 Mile Island yet? You know, the one where the average resident within 10 miles of the containment breach got a dose equivalent to a chest x-ray and the federal courts agreed that NO HEALTH IMPACT TO ANYONE was caused by the leak?

I don't know, maybe we should look instead at the 10k people that ACTUALLY DIED from living at sea level in a tsunami zone. Instead of saying "no nuclear power", because 20 people have gone to the hospital, maybe we should ban people living within 50 feet of sea level. THAT's the dangerous shit, it seems.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Yes, when you have an ex-military guy laughing about how easy it was for them to lie to the citizens rather than be honest with them about the threat, we should be worried. Seems to be the same game plan now.

The fact is just as it was back then, there's nothing the government/military can do to prevent radiation from getting here. All they can do is try to divert our attention, lie about the threat, and later deny the evidence of harm. Or they could be honest, help us with mitigating defense measures, prepare for the casualties.

I'm not trying to be flip....other than taking iodine pills (which stop the body from ingesting radioactive iodine by saturating your thyroid with all the "good" iodine it needs)...what mitigating defense measures would you like, and what casualties do you expect? Even the people in Japan, within miles of the stuff melting down, aren't getting sick. Why are you worried so much about this, when you're thousands of miles away and it will take days to get whatever is leaked over the US?

Time, distance and shielding are all mitigators of dose. Time and distance are inversely exponential, which means that if you stand 2x as far away as person X, you'll get 1/4 of his dose. If it takes a half-life of the source to get from him to you, then the dose is cut in half by the time it gets to you. In this case, you're 500x farther away from these sources of radiation than the people in the evacuation zone, and they aren't getting sick short-term or long-term. I guess I'm trying to understand what your concerns are, b/c to someone who has put a lot of time and energy into understand and working with nuclear power and nuclear weapons, this is a bit like your kids being scared of the boogieman under the bed. I'm not trying to minimize your fears, but to educate you that this is not what you're making it. And it's not your fault, b/c people are selling papers and getting blog hits and TV ratings from making this sound like the second step of the apocalypse. When not a single person has been even as sick as a chemo patient from all of this,

One puff on your cigar will likely give you more of a dose than you'll receive in your entire life from all of the radiation leaked from the Japanese nuclear plants--the "2nd or 3rd worst" nuclear disaster in history.

 

[Masbee]

The various radioactive pollutants from nuclear energy around the world are likely responsible for the bulk of the alarming increase in cancers since WWll.

And decades of research proving a strong link between obsesity generally, and consumption of junk food (lack of produce, excess processed fats and grains) and development of cancer (as well as heart disease, diabetes, and more) turns out (according to you) to have been a massive conspiracy to decieve created by the all powerful Nuclear Industry.

I mean, just look at the Nuclear Industry. How powerful. How many new plants have been built. They are an unstoppable force that is steamrolling all democracy and will crush and poison all before it.

Thank you for showing me the light. I can't believe I was duped by listening to SO MANY so-call experts. MARIS knows all.

 

[MARIS61]

Sorry, I've been driving for most of the past 48 hours. Maybe someone can help "navy nuclear expert boy" out...

How many people since we had our conversation on Sunday/Monday worldwide have gone to the hospital with radiation sickness of any level? Is it still at 15, or are we all dying a slow, painful death from hundreds of rads of radiation zooming through our bodies?

And I'd say, barfo, that since the media (and people who believe social worker bloggers instead of qualified nuclear engineering experts) has been proclaiming that these reactors have been on the verge of "imminent and catastrophic meltdown" for almost a week now, and there's still only 20 people with doses large enough to send them to the hospital (and no uncontrolled containment breaches), that some very good work is being done over there and the defense-in-depth planning is being shown to be pretty damn good. I don't think anyone expected a scenario where the largest earthquake ever would hit the plant, knock out regular power, emergency power, backup generators, main coolant pumps, backup cooling pumps, and still have not a single person killed or seriously injured and no uncontrolled containment breach is significantly more safe than any person in the world could reasonably ask for. I don't think anyone has seen molten green rivers of sludge contaminating 30M Japanese people just trying to drink water, or had a plume of hundreds of rems of fallout dropping on their heads. Then again, I've been away from the computers and news shows, so I could be wrong.

Has this been escalated to a higher threat disaster level than 3 Mile Island yet? You know, the one where the average resident within 10 miles of the containment breach got a dose equivalent to a chest x-ray and the federal courts agreed that NO HEALTH IMPACT TO ANYONE was caused by the leak?

I don't know, maybe we should look instead at the 10k people that ACTUALLY DIED from living at sea level in a tsunami zone. Instead of saying "no nuclear power", because 20 people have gone to the hospital, maybe we should ban people living within 50 feet of sea level. THAT's the dangerous shit, it seems.

So much dis-information here it's futile to try to bring you up to date. Rather than continuing to defend a dead horse, try getting yourself up to date on what has transpired. You could also do some research into the actual dangers of nuclear power, since you seem to only know the standard BS diversions and fairy tales the industry provides.

 

[MARIS61]

I'm not trying to be flip....other than taking iodine pills (which stop the body from ingesting radioactive iodine by saturating your thyroid with all the "good" iodine it needs)...what mitigating defense measures would you like, and what casualties do you expect? Even the people in Japan, within miles of the stuff melting down, aren't getting sick. Why are you worried so much about this, when you're thousands of miles away and it will take days to get whatever is leaked over the US?

Time, distance and shielding are all mitigators of dose. Time and distance are inversely exponential, which means that if you stand 2x as far away as person X, you'll get 1/4 of his dose. If it takes a half-life of the source to get from him to you, then the dose is cut in half by the time it gets to you. In this case, you're 500x farther away from these sources of radiation than the people in the evacuation zone, and they aren't getting sick short-term or long-term. I guess I'm trying to understand what your concerns are, b/c to someone who has put a lot of time and energy into understand and working with nuclear power and nuclear weapons, this is a bit like your kids being scared of the boogieman under the bed. I'm not trying to minimize your fears, but to educate you that this is not what you're making it. And it's not your fault, b/c people are selling papers and getting blog hits and TV ratings from making this sound like the second step of the apocalypse. When not a single person has been even as sick as a chemo patient from all of this,

One puff on your cigar will likely give you more of a dose than you'll receive in your entire life from all of the radiation leaked from the Japanese nuclear plants--the "2nd or 3rd worst" nuclear disaster in history.

I don't expect the government to save us from exposure. Obviously that's impossible. This is not deliberate endangerment like the US tests of the 50's and 60's, which exposed our entire 160 million citizens to radiation over and over for years.

But they could be honest with us, which they are not. They could admit Americans in the future will probably die from cancers due to the contamination which will fall on our land and be consumed by livestock and then by people through their food.

They could provide accurate information instead of parroting the industry nonsense wrongly stating that getting the equivalent of a year's dose of radiation in one hour is no more harmful than getting it spread out over a year. Try applying that logic next time you cook dinner or get a suntan.

Maybe you need to look under your bed for the boogeyman, because he's real in this instance, and he's your boss. It's clear this government serves the military industrial compex, and nobody else.

 

[Eastoff]

I don't expect the government to save us from exposure. Obviously that's impossible. This is not deliberate endangerment like the US tests of the 50's and 60's, which exposed our entire 160 million citizens to radiation over and over for years.

But they could be honest with us, which they are not. They could admit Americans in the future will probably die from cancers due to the contamination which will fall on our land and be consumed by livestock and then by people through their food.

They could provide accurate information instead of parroting the industry nonsense wrongly stating that getting the equivalent of a year's dose of radiation in one hour is no more harmful than getting it spread out over a year. Try applying that logic next time you cook dinner or get a suntan.

Maybe you need to look under your bed for the boogeyman, because he's real in this instance, and he's your boss. It's clear this government serves the military industrial compex, and nobody else.

Military industrial complex = japanese power plants?

 

[BrianFromWA]

They could provide accurate information instead of parroting the industry nonsense wrongly stating that getting the equivalent of a year's dose of radiation in one hour is no more harmful than getting it spread out over a year. Try applying that logic next time you cook dinner or get a suntan.

Well, I tried. How dare the government parrot results of a half-century of close monitoring and industry and watchdog regulation and a century of nuclear physics research, while social workers and realtors who REALLY KNOW what's going on stand by idly waiting for them to set up radiation triage centers for those they're sure are about to die of large-scale radiological poisoning?

In a related note, 45 million Americans are still ingesting government-warned and industry-regulated doses of alpha particles straight into their lungs through cigarettes, which have ACTUAL documented effects of cancer and radiation sickness and death. Unlike, say, death clouds from the Orient. But let's forget all that and set up long-term radiation triage centers.

I wish it was as easy for me to be cavalierly ignorant of the important things in life (like, say, facts) and as exciting when I uncover the newest worldwide threat to human existence that no one except me knows about.

 

[Masbee]

You know what's comical; leading edge research into mind-body process is proving that individuals can really be "scared to death" and that emotions play an important part in much illness.

So, while nutjob conspiracy spewers, and politically motivated scaremongers, may think they are "saving the world", it is not so far fetched to make the claim that they are the true danger; they are the ones causing real harm, real damage, real illness and death.

Good for them if that was their goal.

 

[barfo]

And I'd say, barfo, that since the media (and people who believe social worker bloggers instead of qualified nuclear engineering experts) has been proclaiming that these reactors have been on the verge of "imminent and catastrophic meltdown" for almost a week now, and there's still only 20 people with doses large enough to send them to the hospital (and no uncontrolled containment breaches), that some very good work is being done over there and the defense-in-depth planning is being shown to be pretty damn good. I don't think anyone expected a scenario where the largest earthquake ever would hit the plant, knock out regular power, emergency power, backup generators, main coolant pumps, backup cooling pumps, and still have not a single person killed or seriously injured and no uncontrolled containment breach is significantly more safe than any person in the world could reasonably ask for. I don't think anyone has seen molten green rivers of sludge contaminating 30M Japanese people just trying to drink water, or had a plume of hundreds of rems of fallout dropping on their heads. Then again, I've been away from the computers and news shows, so I could be wrong.

Not sure why this paragraph was addressed to me, but I'll respond anyway. For the record, I'm not particularly worried about this. I might be if I lived in Fukushima, but I don't.

I'm not sure what we can say about the quality of the work being done over there. There have been reports that blamed worker screwups for a couple of the problems. And anyway I don't think TEPCO or the Japanese government have a very good track record of telling the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Eventually we'll probably learn the whole story. And it might be worse than is currently being described. Or maybe it won't be. Maybe things will get better from here, maybe they'll get worse.

I guess I'll wait to see what happens next before deciding whether (a) we are all going to die a slow and painful death, or (b) nukes are warm and toasty and I want one in my pants.

barfo

 

[MARIS61]

Here's a current example of how decisions are made to determine what is "safe" exposure:

Workers struggled on Tuesday and Wednesday to keep hundreds of gallons of seawater a minute flowing through temporary fire pumps into the three stricken reactors, Nos. 1, 2 and 3. Among the many problems that officials acknowledged on Wednesday was what appeared to be yet another fire at the plant and indications that the containment vessel surrounding a reactor may have ruptured. That reactor, No. 3, appeared to be releasing radioactive steam.

The workers are being asked to make escalating — and perhaps existential — sacrifices that so far are being only implicitly acknowledged: Japan’s Health Ministry said Tuesday that it was raising the legal limit on the amount of radiation exposure to which each worker could be exposed, to 250 millisieverts from 100 millisieverts, five times the maximum exposure permitted for nuclear plant workers in the United States.

The change means that workers can now remain on site longer, the ministry said. “It would be unthinkable to raise it further than that, considering the health of the workers,” the health minister, Yoko Komiyama, said at a news conference.

They just measure the exposure and set a limit that is higher. They literally just make this garbage up as they go along.

Tokyo Electric Power, the plant’s operator, has said almost nothing at all about the workers, including how long a worker is expected to endure exposure.

The few details Tokyo Electric has made available paint a dire picture. Five workers have died since the earthquake and 22 more have been injured for various reasons, while two are missing. One worker was hospitalized after suddenly grasping his chest and finding himself unable to stand, and another needed treatment after receiving a blast of radiation near a damaged reactor. Eleven workers were injured in a hydrogen explosion at reactor No. 3.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42101198/42086059

 

[jlprk]

To view the projected path of the death cloud click on link.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/03/16/science/plume-graphic.html?ref=science

The plume struck Portland 2 hours ago, at 2 am New York Times time. Here it is right before.