SI: Five Most Overrated Players

[blue9]

I'm pretty sure this is a logical fallacy. Never is a long time.

Yeah, yeah. But for all intents and purposes "never" fits the bill. Maybe Durant will prove me wrong next summer, but it's not bloody likely.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Yeah, yeah. But for all intents and purposes "never" fits the bill. Maybe Durant will prove me wrong next summer, but it's not bloody likely.

Fairly unlikely we can get PG or KD, but fairly, pretty unlikely is stil lFAR from never.

You've heard the phrase never say never right?

 

[blue9]

You guys...you keep skipping over the obvious and blatant answer as if your either blind or oblivious to us.

Name the last 40 win team that had one allstar and a bunch of nobodys on this team? Every other 40 + win team that I can think of had very little upside left with older vet players.
Not trying to be a dick, but how is that not obvious?
This team is VERY different (if they win 40) than any other 40 win team we have seen.

Really? MIL and BOS are young teams that won 40 games last season. MIL got Monroe - not exactly a #1 option on offense. NOP won 45 games last season. Who'd they sign (I really don't know)? My NBA history isn't good enough to know all the young 40-win teams, but I suspect that a lot exist and that NONE of them signed marquee free agents.

Secondly, to say that nothing has ever happened, so therefore it never will, is a factual wrong. The world... this UNIVERSE is predicated on NOTHING remaining the same.
Only two know facts in life. We live, we die. Anything else is never 100%, so to say it will never ever happen is laughable. Sorry.

If one of your main arguments is based on semantics it's not a good argument. I don't find anything funny about saying that no marquee free agent will ever sign with us until we're on the cusp of contention. Just because entropy exists doesn't mean it's likely that we'll sign a marquee free agent as a middling team.

And if what we have won 40 games, then the needs wont be as great as earlier thought, so I believe a top tier guy will see that same point and not dismiss us as quickly as if we had last years roster with 50 wins, but no upside left.

If I am a star in this league and Portland wins 40 plus games this season, HELL YEAH id rather join this Blazers team than last years... or any other team in the league built like last years Blazers, axed out and no upside...

Just provide one example - in any sport - of a marquee free agent signing with a mediocre team in a small market US town.

 

[rasheedfan2005]

Dafuq does a kid dressing up like a Jedi have to do with the presence (or lack thereof) of African American culture in Portland?

My light saber is the one that says "bad mother fucker"

 

[KeepOnRollin]

Just provide one example - in any sport - of a marquee free agent signing with a mediocre team in a small market US town.

The year before LeBron went back to CLE they had a 33-49 record. Of course that is a special case but it is a case none the less. I think CLE is small market. Not as small as POR but in the bottom half of markets.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Really? MIL and BOS are young teams that won 40 games last season. MIL got Monroe - not exactly a #1 option on offense. NOP won 45 games last season. Who'd they sign (I really don't know)? My NBA history isn't good enough to know all the young 40-win teams, but I suspect that a lot exist and that NONE of them signed marquee free agents.

Two things with those teams. First, The whole league thought Milwaukie getting Monroe was a good grab for what they needed and what not. Portland went after him as our number 1. He didn't go to NY. He didn't go to LA. If anything Monroe is supporting the fact that us as a small market can get some decent signings.
I am not sure what their cap space is like either. There is also money involved and maybe NO didn't have enough to lure? Also, even with a potential future MVP, most have said and believe that NO still needs more to compete. They are basically where we are, but our stud has two more years experience. I also think our team will play much better team ball than NO. I think that will help lure the top tier. We aren't a bunch of individuals looking for their own. we are a team concept like the Spurs. The model of the NBA. We will have to agree to disagree.
Except if we keep disagreeing then Sly said the site gets more hits and the Blazers love it.
Wanna take this outside???!!!

 

[blue9]

The year before LeBron went back to CLE they had a 33-49 record. Of course that is a special case but it is a case none the less. I think CLE is small market. Not as small as POR but in the bottom half of markets.

Well done! There is the exception to the rule! But as you pointed out, it's a special case. Maybe someday we'll have a native son who'll do the same for us. But it's not Kevin Love!

 

[blue9]

Two things with those teams. First, The whole league thought Milwaukie getting Monroe was a good grab for what they needed and what not. Portland went after him as our number 1. He didn't go to NY. He didn't go to LA. If anything Monroe is supporting the fact that us as a small market can get some decent signings.

This isn't about "decent signings". I thought this conversation started because of the comment about still needing a #1 option to pair with Dame? I had ruled out Free Agency as an option, which left us with Draft or Trade. You seemed to be making the argument that we can sign our #1 option as a Free Agent, and I'm saying that it won't happen until we're already in contention for a championship. We can sign "decent" free agents, but that doesn't get us anywhere.

 

[riverman]

Actually San Antonio is a small market and as was mentioned, so is Milwaukee. Both got big free agents to sign. San Antonio did build a dynasty through the draft and D league but Portland could be a destination for many reasons beyond the marketplace. I think Neil Olshey is better connected than some folks may think

 

[blue9]

Actually San Antonio is a small market and as was mentioned, so is Milwaukee. Both got big free agents to sign. San Antonio did build a dynasty through the draft and D league but Portland could be a destination for many reasons beyond the marketplace. I think Neil Olshey is better connected than some folks may think

And SAS is in championship contention (continuously) which is why they attract Free Agents. As I've said - once we make it to the WCF we'll attract 'em. Until then we'll attract role players looking for a paycheck and playing time (Aminu / Davis / Blake / Kaman/ 'Dre / Turkogluuuohwait). Which is essentially what MIL got in Monroe.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

Well done! There is the exception to the rule! But as you pointed out, it's a special case. Maybe someday we'll have a native son who'll do the same for us. But it's not Kevin Love!

Nash signed with the Suns instead of resigning with Dallas. Dikembe left the Nuggets to sign with the Hawks. In the NFL Reggie White left the Eagles to sign with small market Green Bay in the 1990's. Also in the 90's Greg Maddux left the Cubs to sign with the Braves.

So it is admittedly rare but it does happen.

 

[blue9]

The only one I have knowledge of was Nash/Suns and that was a financial move - Cuban didn't want to pay him as much as PHX was offering. Next summer we won't be in a position where we can outbid other teams for a marquee free agent.
Still, appreciate the examples! You've got sports knowledge! I still don't think any of these examples make it likely that we'll sign a marquee Free Agent until we're on the cusp of contention, and if I were a betting man I'd stake my house on it NOT happening next summer.

 

[WillG]

4 - Since winning doesn't matter this season, use the entire season as a training camp for the following season. This means that Dame spends the season passing rather than shooting. Meyers spends the season preparing to be our starting C next season - this means lots of shots, lots of picks, lots of passing out of the high-post, and working on his post-up game. IMO Meyers should be the central focus of our offense this season, 90/50/40 club be damned. CJ spends the season passing and scoring as Dame's back-up. All of this should equate to fewer wins than if we trot out Dame as our #1 scoring option and CJ as our #2 scoring option, which will result in (a) a better draft pick AND (b) being better prepared for the following season. It's a WIN/WIN scenario through losing. It's not tanking because we'll actively be trying to win each game, but with the primary focus being on improving skill sets.

This would be ideal, but things are rarely that black-and-white.

Case-in-point is; Stotts' team option, on his contract, has not been picked up.
So, as it stands, he is in a contract year.

If you believe short term failure is the answer for long term success - then tanking/developing essentially creates a conflict between the coach and team.

I can't see Terry being OK with piling up losses for the benefit of players long term, or for a higher draft pick, when his current, or future livelihood will rely on those numbers.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Okay, wait a minute. Kinda getting to be a double standard here. Which is it? You cant be a championship contender until you get a near MVP caliber player, but you cant make the WCF without one?
ANY WFC team is a championship contender, so it cant go both ways...
Holes in your argument.

Well done! There is the exception to the rule! But as you pointed out, it's a special case. Maybe someday we'll have a native son who'll do the same for us. But it's not Kevin Love!

Agreed. Not Love.

This isn't about "decent signings". I thought this conversation started because of the comment about still needing a #1 option to pair with Dame? I had ruled out Free Agency as an option, which left us with Draft or Trade. You seemed to be making the argument that we can sign our #1 option as a Free Agent, and I'm saying that it won't happen until we're already in contention for a championship. We can sign "decent" free agents, but that doesn't get us anywhere.

But the decent signings make the team go from 8-10 to playoffs. This then attracts the top tier BECAUSE we are still so young with so much upside.
Donjt get me wrong. I get what your saying and I think I would agree 99% of the time, but I think we have that unique 1% team this year.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Okay, wait a minute. Kinda getting to be a double standard here. Which is it? You cant be a championship contender until you get a near MVP caliber player, but you cant make the WCF without one?
ANY WFC team is a championship contender, so it cant go both ways...
Holes in your argument.

That's not a double standard, you're talking about two different things here. The arguments can be summed up like this. 1. You need a near-MVP level player to push your team to title contention (and some good complimentary players). 2. If you want to attract a top-tier free agent to a small market you need to be a title contender already. So how do you get that MVP caliber player before being able to attract a high caliber free agent? Well you do it through the draft or trades.

But the decent signings make the team go from 8-10 to playoffs. This then attracts the top tier BECAUSE we are still so young with so much upside.
Donjt get me wrong. I get what your saying and I think I would agree 99% of the time, but I think we have that unique 1% team this year.

This reminds me of the kind of things people were saying right after we drafted Roy, Aldridge and Oden. Try to remember back to that year after we finally got back to the playoffs against Houston (before Roy's knees dissolved). Remember Hedo?

As for this year's incarnation being "unique," aside from "because they are my favorite team" what sets this squad apart from a bunch of other young mediocre teams with big dreams?

 

[Orion Bailey]

That's not a double standard, you're talking about two different things here. The arguments can be summed up like this. 1. You need a near-MVP level player to push your team to title contention (and some good complimentary players). 2. If you want to attract a top-tier free agent to a small market you need to be a title contender already. So how do you get that MVP caliber player before being able to attract a high caliber free agent? Well you do it through the draft or trades.



This reminds me of the kind of things people were saying right after we drafted Roy, Aldridge and Oden. Try to remember back to that year after we finally got back to the playoffs against Houston (before Roy's knees dissolved). Remember Hedo?

As for this year's incarnation being "unique," aside from "because they are my favorite team" what sets this squad apart from a bunch of other young mediocre teams with big dreams?

What sets us apart is how we are already playing like a team and we have that #2 already here with a probably three coming out of the potentials like CJ, Leonard and Vonleh. Again (said several times by several people) our team is full of lotto picks already. Is NO? is Milwaukee? Is Minnesota? Who do they have to support their best player? We have 8 lotto picks. Lotto picks that either had injuries or better players ahead of them, so they didn't get the minutes to develop and prove themselves. With this team, they will. Now if they don't end up playing like lotto picks after getting a fair shake here then thats one story, but everyone is writing us off as mediocrity like we have a bunch of afflalos or something. This teams roster as it stands has a MUCH higher percentage of being better 1-3 years from now than any other mediocre team in the league from what I see. Again, if CJ and Meyers and Crabbe make that jump this year, I think that and Dame is enough for a Paul George to say, you know what? I fit in age wise, the organization is top notch and know what they are doing for the long term and they have assets if the current roster doesn't pan out (speaking of guys like Vonleh, Harkless, etc.).
We might be in the best situation of any team in the league for a top tier who wants to build a legacy of a decade long stretch of winning basketball.

 

[blue9]

That's not a double standard, you're talking about two different things here. The arguments can be summed up like this. 1. You need a near-MVP level player to push your team to title contention (and some good complimentary players). 2. If you want to attract a top-tier free agent to a small market you need to be a title contender already. So how do you get that MVP caliber player before being able to attract a high caliber free agent? Well you do it through the draft or trades.

Exactly. And I believe that's what I put forth in my numbered list that started off this whole debate about whether we can sign a marquee free agent or not. We will have to utilize trades/draft to get us to the WCF, and at that point we MIGHT be able to use free agency to put us over the top. I'm done discussing this - it's clear Orion thinks we're special and that all the marquee players will see how special we are and nothing is going to change his mind. Just as nothing will change my mind that we WON'T sign a marquee free agent until we're a legit contender.

 

[Rhal]

This is year 4 for Lillard. He hasnt hit his ceiling yet and the first three years are a good indicator Lillard is at least a good to great player.
There are a lot of things he needs to work on, his facilitating and D are two of the big things that come to mind. If we assume Lillard never gets better at either of those then his ceiling is almost where he is at and he will never be in the conversation for top 5 pg or top 20 player.
His 3p shooting is brought up a lot but you dont drop 6% in shooting from 3 for 4 months without having a very nagging injury, I expect a return towards normal, right around 38%. Maybe 40% if he stops those long distance 3s that arent a great shot.
This year we will see if Lillard can improve his game and take the next step to a superstar or if he is more a Billups type player.
Personally I dont think we have seen the best of Lillard, that is yet to come.

 

[Strenuus]

The only one I have knowledge of was Nash/Suns and that was a financial move - Cuban didn't want to pay him as much as PHX was offering. Next summer we won't be in a position where we can outbid other teams for a marquee free agent.
Still, appreciate the examples! You've got sports knowledge! I still don't think any of these examples make it likely that we'll sign a marquee Free Agent until we're on the cusp of contention, and if I were a betting man I'd stake my house on it NOT happening next summer.

I wonder if this is why Cuban has started paying boatloads to players now...

 

[Tunchi]

This is year 4 for Lillard. He hasnt hit his ceiling yet and the first three years are a good indicator Lillard is at least a good to great player.
There are a lot of things he needs to work on, his facilitating and D are two of the big things that come to mind. If we assume Lillard never gets better at either of those then his ceiling is almost where he is at and he will never be in the conversation for top 5 pg or top 20 player.
His 3p shooting is brought up a lot but you dont drop 6% in shooting from 3 for 4 months without having a very nagging injury, I expect a return towards normal, right around 38%. Maybe 40% if he stops those long distance 3s that arent a great shot.
This year we will see if Lillard can improve his game and take the next step to a superstar or if he is more a Billups type player.
Personally I dont think we have seen the best of Lillard, that is yet to come.

But his 3 point shooting even sucks now.. Personally everything about Lillard is really good except of course defense but its a little overblown how bad he is on defense. To me his 3 point shooting is the only thing thats really extremely overrated

 

[Orion Bailey]

Exactly. And I believe that's what I put forth in my numbered list that started off this whole debate about whether we can sign a marquee free agent or not. We will have to utilize trades/draft to get us to the WCF, and at that point we MIGHT be able to use free agency to put us over the top. I'm done discussing this - it's clear Orion thinks we're special and that all the marquee players will see how special we are and nothing is going to change his mind. Just as nothing will change my mind that we WON'T sign a marquee free agent until we're a legit contender.

I just want to be clear. I don't think we are special, I think we have a much better chance of becoming special this season if our current roster has players that break out. I think we will turn the heads of some top tiers in the offseason if this happens.
I want to hope and believe it will happen, but the foundation of my argument isn't what we are, its what I think we will become over the course of the season.

 

[Rhal]

But his 3 point shooting even sucks now.. Personally everything about Lillard is really good except of course defense but its a little overblown how bad he is on defense. To me his 3 point shooting is the only thing thats really extremely overrated

Its preseason with a new set of players and on a 25m restriction. Not worried at all.
Now 15 games into the season if its still bad then ill be worried if he doesn't have an injury.

 

[blue9]

I just want to be clear. I don't think we are special, I think we have a much better chance of becoming special this season if our current roster has players that break out. I think we will turn the heads of some top tiers in the offseason if this happens.
I want to hope and believe it will happen, but the foundation of my argument isn't what we are, its what I think we will become over the course of the season.

I'm as high on this roster as anyone - okay, that's not true at all* - but I just don't see a marque Free Agent signing with us next summer in any reasonable** scenario.

*I'm over the moon about not having LMA on the team, and am excited by the potential of many of our players. But clearly I'm not (yet) on the "maybe we sneak into the Playoffs" wagon.

**I'm willing to include the improvement of CJ, Meyers, Crabbe, etc as a "reasonable scenario". I may even allow "8th seed" as a reasonable scenario, even though I don't (yet) believe it. But WCF, or even advancing past the 1st round is not something I consider reasonable at this point.

 

[Orion Bailey]

I'm as high on this roster as anyone - okay, that's not true at all* - but I just don't see a marque Free Agent signing with us next summer in any reasonable** scenario.

*I'm over the moon about not having LMA on the team, and am excited by the potential of many of our players. But clearly I'm not (yet) on the "maybe we sneak into the Playoffs" wagon.

**I'm willing to include the improvement of CJ, Meyers, Crabbe, etc as a "reasonable scenario". I may even allow "8th seed" as a reasonable scenario, even though I don't (yet) believe it. But WCF, or even advancing past the 1st round is not something I consider reasonable at this point.

We agree, but to continue your thought. We wont make WCF, but if we make the playoffs as is, you don't see the huge upside in that and think it will raise the eyebrows of the leaders of the league?

 

[Andrew Teyema]

http://sircharlesincharge.com/2015/10/19/nba-the-five-most-overrated-players-headed-into-2015-16/5/

They didn't even explain why he would be. All they did is put him there and said "just going with my gut."

 

[blue9]

We agree, but to continue your thought. We wont make WCF, but if we make the playoffs as is, you don't see the huge upside in that and think it will raise the eyebrows of the leaders of the league?

I will (and do) see the upside. I just don't think we'll standout to Free Agents - not until we make the WCF.

 

[Orion Bailey]

I will (and do) see the upside. I just don't think we'll standout to Free Agents - not until we make the WCF.

Fair enough. you could be right, but I hope to hell your wrong.

 

[Strenuus]

HEY HEY HEY! woah woah woah.

If the spurs are the model franchise and we're supposed to mimic them, why aren't we mimicing the spurs forum?! YELL AT EACH OTHER, DAMNIT!






(god, please don't. I too sensitive).

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

HEY HEY HEY! woah woah woah.

If the spurs are the model franchise and we're supposed to mimic them, why aren't we mimicing the spurs forum?! YELL AT EACH OTHER, DAMNIT!






(god, please don't. I too sensitive).

Let's call each other bundles of sticks

 

[Orion Bailey]

Let's call each other bundles of sticks

Buncha Stick Bundlers around here im tellin ya!!!