SI Prediction: Blazers Will Be Dismantled; Roy Gone

[Masbee]

Sports Illustrated's Chris Mannix makes a list of 10 NBA Predictions for 2011. Included is the (pretty easy to make) prediction that "The Trail Blazers will be dismantled."

Also included, are the harder to figure out predictions that Roy will be part of the "dumped" group, along with Miller and Pryz (how does the team trade Roy for even neutral value in the short term?);

and that the team will build around LaMarcus (ok, understandable) and Wesley (the team is building around a role player? - really?).

3. The Trail Blazers will be dismantled. Once a young team on the rise, the Trail Blazers have been crippled by injuries and their title hopes have all but vanished. With former top pick Greg Oden out another season with a knee injury and Brandon Roy battling a knee problem of his own, new GM Rich Cho will hit the reset button with this group and dump Roy, Andre Miller and Joel Przybilla, and rebuild around LaMarcus Aldridge and Wesley Matthews.

Other interesting predictions:

The lockout will last longer than the previous one;

Carmelo will be traded to NJ;

Hornets will be sold and moved out of New Orleans;

Dallas will beat the Lakers in the playoffs (Yeah!)

Yao Ming will play again.


Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/20...2011.nba.predictions/index.html#ixzz19uhkQ1kd

 

[Natebishop3]

I don't think Wes is a role player.

Even I could predict that the Hornets will be moved.

Yao probably will play again.... in China.

 

[e_blazer]

My prediction is that nothing happens with the Blazers in the way of trades or roster moves through the month of January. The schedule is soft and the team, as constructed, could improve its playoff standings dramatically. At the beginning of February, Cho will assess where the team stands and if a playoff push is realistic. He'll know more about Roy's condition and his chances of contributing. If things look reasonable in terms of making the playoffs, then I would think he'd look for deals that would bolster the team for this year without moving Miller or Camby. On the other hand, if things are slipping and Roy's truly done for the year, then I'd expect a major move with an eye towards the future. Such a trade would involve moving Miller and maybe Przybilla or Camby along with other pieces.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Wesley and LaMarcus are both uptempo players, If these are the new cornerstones I believe a coaching change will also have to take place.

 

[Natebishop3]

Wesley and LaMarcus are both uptempo players, If these are the new cornerstones I believe a coaching change will also have to take place.

I agree 100%.

 

[MIXUM]

Hahaha we are gonna dump Roy and miller? Sounds like Chris isn't a blazer fan. Not to mention ..... Nobody's trading for Roy

 

[Masbee]

I don't think Wes is a role player.

Even I could predict that the Hornets will be moved.

Yao probably will play again.... in China.

Sure, you can predict the Hornets will be moved - in the same way that 2 years ago practically everyone was predicting the Blazers were going to be a force in the Western Conference for years.

How'd that "obvious" prediction work out?

As for Yao, he specifically predicted he will play again in the NBA for the Rockets.

 

[MIXUM]

Mannix is not a blazer guy. Remember that

 

[Natebishop3]

Sure, you can predict the Hornets will be moved - in the same way that 2 years ago practically everyone was predicting the Blazers were going to be a force in the Western Conference for years.

How'd that "obvious" prediction work out?

As for Yao, he specifically predicted he will play again in the NBA for the Rockets.

That "obvious" prediction was destroyed by injuries. Is David Stern going to lose his voice and both his arms so he can't communicate in the sale of the Hornets? The team hasn't been successful there. The NBA has already failed in New Orleans once before. I think they would have moved the team already if Hurricane Katrina hadn't happened.

 

[Mediocre Man]

What team in it's right mind would give anything of value for Roy?

 

[Natebishop3]

What team in it's right mind would give anything of value for Roy?

They wouldn't. At this point I would accept an expiring contract for him.

 

[Mediocre Man]

They wouldn't. At this point I would accept an expiring contract for him.

Turn that around. Would you give up an expiring contract for a player scheduled to make 80 some odd million dollars that mightnot be able to play at an NBA level anymore?

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

They wouldn't. At this point I would accept an expiring contract for him.

Roy for ZBOEC?

 

[Natebishop3]

Turn that around. Would you give up an expiring contract for a player scheduled to make 80 some odd million dollars that mightnot be able to play at an NBA level anymore?

Depends on what they believe. If you're Dallas, and your window is rapidly closing as Dirk and Kidd grow old, plus you just lost Caron Butler for the year... what do you do? Butler is expiring. Would you trade Roy for Butler and filler? It also depends on whether people think Roy is done, or just pouting like some of the reports are saying. If they think he's pouting, maybe we could get something for him. Maybe that's been the plan all along...

 

[Pinwheel1]

Depends on what they believe. If you're Dallas, and your window is rapidly closing as Dirk and Kidd grow old, plus you just lost Caron Butler for the year... what do you do? Butler is expiring. Would you trade Roy for Butler and filler? It also depends on whether people think Roy is done, or just pouting like some of the reports are saying. If they think he's pouting, maybe we could get something for him. Maybe that's been the plan all along...

But if everyone thinks he is pouting then why would the Blazers give him up for nothing? I am not sure you are going to find a scenario where one teams thinks he is pouting and another team thinks he is washed up.

 

[Natebishop3]

But if everyone thinks he is pouting then why would the Blazers give him up for nothing? I am not sure you are going to find a scenario where one teams thinks he is pouting and another team thinks he is washed up.

Maybe that's why we're hearing so many reports about Roy pouting. Maybe the team is actually releasing these rumors to try to drum up some more value for Roy.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Maybe that's why we're hearing so many reports about Roy pouting. Maybe the team is actually releasing these rumors to try to drum up some more value for Roy.

Doubtful IMO. He would still have to pass a physical. And they might ask him "Hey Brandon were you faking it or are you really hurt?" I just don't see him being traded until he plays again. And if he can be effective enough to help a team then I doubt we trade him. But at least in that scenario it is possible.

 

[BBert]

Roy for Butler? That would exceed my wildest dreams.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Roy for Butler? That would exceed my wildest dreams.

Getting Roy to Dallas will be really hard due to salaries. I was playing with it on trade machine, and it's tough to come up with something that makes sense for both teams

 

[Nikolokolus]

I think the earliest we're really going to see Roy moved (if at all) is the season after the lockout. Some team might be convinced that a year and half away from basketball could have given him some pep and at that point he'll only have a couple of years left on his deal which makes the risk a little more manageable.

 

[PapaG]

Roy for Butler? That would exceed my wildest dreams.

Butler the past two seasons - PERs of 14.5 and 13.7

Hobbled Roy this season - PER of 15.0.

Trading for Butler seems more like a nightmare.

 

[Natebishop3]

Butler the past two seasons - PERs of 14.5 and 13.7

Hobbled Roy this season - PER of 15.0.

Trading for Butler seems more like a nightmare.

He's in the last year of his contract. Not much of a nightmare.

 

[PapaG]

He's in the last year of his contract. Not much of a nightmare.

And ... then what? You get nothing for Roy, there is a lockout, and a new hard and lower cap makes any cap space a moot point? I suppose Dallas may do it, if only because even an injured Roy is a better offensive player than Butler.

I like the idea of Miller/Przy being used at some point in a trade, if only because Miller has more trade value.

 

[MARIS61]

What team in it's right mind would give anything of value for Roy?

Salary matching issues aside, most teams would trade a couple solid vets/prospects for a couple years of a Roy.

Bob Whitsitt could get it done.

 

[Natebishop3]

And ... then what? You get nothing for Roy, there is a lockout, and a new hard and lower cap makes any cap space a moot point? I suppose Dallas may do it, if only because even an injured Roy is a better offensive player than Butler.

I like the idea of Miller/Przy being used at some point in a trade, if only because Miller has more trade value.

If there will be a hard cap, that makes Roy's value even lower in the future. If he truly is done as an All-Star/Elite player in the NBA, we have a better chance of trading him now than we will a year from now or two years from now.

Personally, I don't look at getting him off the books as getting nothing for him. I don't want to see the team have to pay a guy a max contract for five years when he's a shadow of himself.

I'd trade Roy, Miller, AND Prz because I think this team needs a retooling and none of those guys fit our longterm plans.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Salary matching issues aside, most teams would trade a couple solid vets/prospects for a couple years of a Roy.

Bob Whitsitt could get it done.

Yeah ask Steve Smith what he thinks of Bob's quick trigger philosophy.

 

[jlprk]

Whitsitt was the type of wheeler-and-dealer we need.

The way you get another team to trade for Roy is, you give negative (his contract) plus positive (a good yet cheap player) in exchange for zero (a LaFrentz-type contract, injured like Roy and can't play). This way the salaries match.

But Roy can play once a week (poorly) and the new LaFrentz can't even do that. So we come out behind, having given up a good player. So Nik is right. Wait till closer to the end of his contract, when he's worth a little as an expiring.

Every season, a Mills or a Marks will now remain unemployed because Roy fills that roster spot. He's the new LaFrentz or Miles, except he'll titillate us in a game now and then, and provide Quick with newsprint on slow news days. Since Cho keeps his lips zipped, the Oregonian needs Roy quotes to sell papers, so maybe they'll pitch in on his salary.

 

[Ed O]

Butler the past two seasons - PERs of 14.5 and 13.7

Hobbled Roy this season - PER of 15.0.

Trading for Butler seems more like a nightmare.

What's Roy's PER the last month or so?

And is there any indication that it's ever going to get better than it's been?

Ed O.

 

[PapaG]

What's Roy's PER the last month or so?

And is there any indication that it's ever going to get better than it's been?

Ed O.

So, your approach would be to sell Roy at his lowest possible oncourt value?

 

[Nikolokolus]

So, your approach would be to sell Roy at his lowest possible oncourt value?

It could get worse ...