SI Prediction: Blazers Will Be Dismantled; Roy Gone

[Natebishop3]

So, your approach would be to sell Roy at his lowest possible oncourt value?

The funny thing about Roy's knees is, they won't fix themselves and surgery won't help, so as he gets older it will only get worse, not better. Therefore, this is not his lowest possible on-court value.

 

[Pinwheel1]

No one on this forum knows how healthy Brandon is or will be. Certainly not me. But my guess is now is not the best time to deal. His stock will not go lower because his contract will only get shorter.

i keep going back to some of the games this year. His good ones and his bad ones. Now i understand that the thinking is "yeah he will have a few good ones once in a while". But when i think about his bad ones, I just can't be sure if it just wasn't because his mind has not adjusted to new body.

Think about how many times he made a move to the basket, and he actually got the rim and he just plain missed the wide open layin. His body was successful making the move, but he just plain mentally choked. Yes there were other plays where he dribbled into traffic and was stripped or rejected. Some of those plays happened to him when he was healthy too. They were just bad basketball decisions.

What I am wondering is if after his extended layoff he will be better prepared mentally for his new role. He needs to know what he can and can't do. Gone are the days where he commands a double team, so we should not ever see him dribble into one anymore. But from watching him the first few weeks, he can still run, he can still shoot, his range has improved, he can still pass, and he can still get to the basket. He just can't finish the same way, so he needs to figure a better way to finish too.

At that point his value will be higher. That is my guess

 

[Natebishop3]

It's just interesting that we're having the same discussion over Roy at age 26 that the people in LA are having over Kobe Bryant at age 32.

 

[hasoos]

Butler the past two seasons - PERs of 14.5 and 13.7

Hobbled Roy this season - PER of 15.0.

Trading for Butler seems more like a nightmare.

What is the PER of a guy who never gets on the court again?

 

[Ed O]

So, your approach would be to sell Roy at his lowest possible oncourt value?

Not at all.

I'm not going to try to defend him as a player the way you were, though.

Ed O.

 

[PapaG]

Not at all.

I'm not going to try to defend him as a player the way you were, though.

Ed O.

Posting factual PERs is "defending" Roy as a player? Didn't know that...

 

[Kaydow]

It's just interesting that we're having the same discussion over Roy at age 26 that the people in LA are having over Kobe Bryant at age 32.

What's really interesting is that Kobe is still dropping 25/night with a 24 PER and that he's played in 34 out of 34 games this season. If this is what is to become of Brandon, I'm good with that.

 

[Ed O]

Posting factual PERs is "defending" Roy as a player? Didn't know that...

You were using statistics incorrectly to try to defend Roy.

Do you think the stats you posted are any indication of the capabilities of the two players moving forward?

Ed O.

 

[PapaG]

You were using statistics incorrectly to try to defend Roy.

Do you think the stats you posted are any indication of the capabilities of the two players moving forward?

Ed O.

I don't think anybody has any firm grasp on the capabilities of the two players moving forward. I do know that a relatively healthy Butler has a lower PER the past two seasons than the Roy we've seen this season. Unless you're suddenly a clairvoyant, I don't think any predictions of future on-court value can be derived from these facts. They are both poor/average NBA players at this point; the difference, I suppose, is that one of the two has injury issues that explain his performance. Injury issues that may, or may not, make him a lesser player than Caron Butler in future seasons.

I'm also still unclear on how the stats "incorrectly" defended Roy. In your mind, I suppose?

 

[Ed O]

I don't think anybody has any firm grasp on the capabilities of the two players moving forward. I do know that a relatively healthy Butler has a lower PER the past two seasons than the Roy we've seen this season. Unless you're suddenly a clairvoyant, I don't think any predictions of future on-court value can be derived from these facts. They are both poor/average NBA players at this point; the difference, I suppose, is that one of the two has injury issues that explain his performance. Injury issues that may, or may not, make him a lesser player than Caron Butler.

So you think that those PERs are an indication of future performance?

You either do or you don't. Or you don't know.

If you don't, or if you don't know, then using that stat is not really intellectually honest.

Ed O.

 

[PapaG]

So you think that those PERs are an indication of future performance?

You either do or you don't. Or you don't know.

If you don't, or if you don't know, then using that stat is not really intellectually honest.

Ed O.

How was posting current production intellectually dishonest? You're the person reading things into me posting PERs. Plus, the poster I was replying to a poster who wanted Butler because of his expiring contract, so any future performance comparison is seemingly not worth discussing, at least in that conversation. That you then went off on a tangent to try and insult me is a "you" problem, Ed.

 

[Ed O]

How was posting current production intellectually dishonest? You're the person reading things into me posting PERs. Plus, the poster I was replying to wanted Butler because of his expiring contract, so any future performance is seemingly not worth discussing, at least in that conversation. That you then went off on a tangent to try and insult me is a "you" problem, Ed.

I'm not attacking you in the least. I'm curious about the point you were making.

You posted their past stats in the conversation related to contract lengths? I find that hard to believe.

Ed O.

 

[PapaG]

I'm not attacking you in the least. I'm curious about the point you were making.

You posted their past stats in the conversation related to contract lengths? I find that hard to believe.

Ed O.

I posted it to show that a hobbled Roy is a more productive player than a "healthy" Butler. Since the contract is expiring, future production won't matter. Unless you don't care about production at all, posting recent performance statistics seemed fair in evaluating any trade between the two players. I guess I'm not understanding your point. My point seems rather straightforward, at least in my mind. You keep interjecting your thoughts and beliefs into the conversation, and while I appreciate you putting so much thought into my factual post, I don't really see why. Hobbled Roy has a higher PER than healthy Butler. I actual thought it was a rather simple fact, and not easily misunderstood.

 

[Ed O]

I posted it to show that a hobbled Roy is a more productive player than a "healthy" Butler. Since the contract is expiring, future production won't matter. Unless you don't care about production at all, posting recent performance statistics seemed fair in evaluating any trade between the two players. I guess I'm not understanding your point. My point seems rather straightforward, at least in my mind. You keep interjecting your thoughts and beliefs into the conversation, and while I appreciate you putting so much thought into my factual post, I don't really see why. Hobbled Roy has a higher PER than healthy Butler. I actual thought it was a rather simple fact, and not easily misunderstood.

But why is that relevant? Neither team would be paying for past production.

Normally stats are used because they are forward-facing. If you're not using them in that way, I remain confused by why you used them at all.

But whatevs.

Ed O.

 

[PapaG]

But why is that relevant? Neither team would be paying for past production.

Normally stats are used because they are forward-facing. If you're not using them in that way, I remain confused by why you used them at all.

But whatevs.

Ed O.

I've seen you post PER many times in evaluating a player's performance, or even on occasion when discussing future trades. Forward-facing stats? I suppose it can be said that past performance tends to predict future behavior, but in this instance, both players involved are playing at a sub-average level, at least in terms of the expectations one would expect from their past results. As far as I know, Roy is not out for the season, so it would make sense (to me, at least) to compare what each player has given in on-court performance, and to use the most recent data set as one point of comparison. If future performance could be accurately predicted, then half of us would talking about how awesome Kevin Durant is playing for the Blazers, and the other half would be bemoaning his lack of defense and finding ways to try and trade him for a Memphis Grizzly.

 

[PapaG]

So, since Butler is done for the year with an Achilles injury/surgery, which stats should I post to try and explain his future performance on the court?