Simmons' not-so-grim assessment of the Blazers

[BrianFromWA]

From Golliver:

The two discuss whether they should bet the over or the under on 34.5 wins for the Blazers.

Here's a transcript. Thanks to dexter112 for the digest version of the discussion earlier this week. The audio is here.

Joe House: "I was prepared with Portland, because the 37 or 38 range is where they opened. I loved this one, give me this one. 34.5 is right on the edge. I'm still going under, I just don't like a two-man team. The two-man team is [LaMarcus] Aldridge and [Nicolas] Batum. There's nothing else to get excited about, be excited for. I could talk myself into 35 or 36 wins, it's not that hard. I'm going to stick with my under. I'm going to stick at 34."

Bill Simmons: "Alright, soccer moms from Portland. My friends. I'm going way over. I have them winning 41 games and being the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs. The Portland Trail Blazers. First of all, a little 'nobody believes in us' here. Everybody is writing them off. LaMarcus Aldridge is a top-20 guy. Batum.

"I think they struck oil with this [Damian] Lillard kid. Have you seen him? I have single-handedly changed my opinion changed my opinion of him. You said [Anthony] Davis is the Rookie of the Year, I think it's up for grabs. It's up for grabs. If this kid averages 19 points a game, if he puts them in the playoffs over New Orleans, it becomes a discussion. All I'm saying is don't bet your life on Anthony Davis as Rookie of the Year, if this kid is as good as he looks in the preseason.

"There's some other guys I like on the team. It's the centers that are the issue. Meyers Leonard, a little raw, a little raw for me. Who's the other one? [Joel] Freeland? I don't even know what color he is. Is he white or black? Where is he from, Joel Freeland? Who else is on this team. I liked J.J. Hickson last year. Wes Matthews.

"Unless I can't add or figure out who the eighth playoff team is, let's see, Denver, Lakers, Clippers Memphis, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Utah, I have a spot. That spot goes between Portland, New Orleans, Dallas and Golden State. I really like Portland the most."

Joe House: "I think Dallas is going to win 43 or 44 games."

Bill Simmons: "I know but it's no fun to pick them."

Joe House: "That gets you your soccer mom harmony. You were in disharmony last year."

Bill Simmons: "I like their top three. I think Lillard is going to be good right away."

Joe House: "It's going to be interesting to watch. It's a team in transition that's going to be fun to watch."

Bill Simmons: "Crunch time, they play Aldridge at center. Give me one more rebounder? Hickson. Matthews. Batum. And Lillard. I kind of like that crunch time team. I thought Hickson played well for them last year. I'm OK with that crunch time. I'm in on Portland. 41 wins. We disagree on that one."

While being another thought on the Blazers contrary to the SI piece, it allows me to shamelessly promote that Simmons must be reading our stuff. (post 15 )

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Nice.

But he's still a MEGA-douche.

 

[mook]

I had them at 41 wins too. I think of myself as the wild optimist on this board.

 

[THE HCP]

I had them at 41 wins too. I think of myself as the wild optimist on this board.

You are coo-coo for Cocoa-Puffs! 32 wins top!

 

[KingSpeed]

I already picked us to win 41 provided there are no injuries, but that won't get us into the playoffs. Should be some fun games to watch, though, like the 2007-08 season (my favorite season of the last decade.)

 

[THE HCP]

Eric, you actually believe this roster will win 41 games?

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

I can scarcely imagine a scenario wherein we win 41 games, outside several other team planes crashing.

 

[HailBlazers]

Eric, you actually believe this roster will win 41 games?

HCP, you actually believe this team will be lucky to win 32?

 

[Denny Crane]

I think if Lillard, LMA, and Batum stay healthy, the Blazers should win 41+ games and make 6th-8th seed.

 

[mook]

I can scarcely imagine a scenario wherein we win 41 games, outside several other team planes crashing.

Really? When I think of the Blazers, I think of an All Star PF, a PG stud, a do-it-all small forward, a few decent role players (Hickson, Matthews) and a shitty bench. That seems like a classic recipe for a .500 or so team. Especially in an era of superteams. In any sane time the talent of Wade, LeBron, Bosh, Pau, Nash, Howard and Kobe would be spread out over 5 teams instead of 2. Consequently there are more beatable teams out there than there normally would be. That alone may translate to an extra 5-6 wins for our team.

It's really young, so I appreciate that I'm being a little optimistic in my expectations. But Lillard may actually be even better than we all think this year. If he pulls off Damon Stoudamire-type rookie numbers (19/9), look out. Ditto if Batum or Aldridge take off in the revamped offense. These aren't pie-in-the-sky, never-gonna-happen scenarios. They are scenarios that happen every year to one team or another, especially when there's a major overhaul in the offense. It's certainly imaginable (at least to me) that they happen for this team.

 

[Denny Crane]

If Lillard and LMA can play like Stockton and Malone, I don't see why you'd need a superteam.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

What's missing from the conversation is that some other teams competing for the 8th seed have sustained serious injuries already.

Nevertheless, I'm nervous about predicting playoffs.

 

[BrianFromWA]

The one thing that tempers my enthusiasm (though I'm still predicting 8 seed and 41 wins) --besides the unpredictable freak injury bug-- is that I don't think this team has a Christmas 13-game winning streak in it. I think that there is a high probability of a slow start, whether by Stotts not taking off the training wheels or the D and rotations not gelling...followed by some solid play...followed by a potential for an en masse hitting of the rookie wall. If all of those happen, we might be hurting. But if we can weather either the beginning or the end of the season, I think there's a good shot. And I'm interested to see what the trade deadline brings...either liquidation or complimentary pieces or asset gathering?