if the Blazers are letting the market decide Ant's next salary, then there are only a few teams that could theoretically offer him a max deal.With a 121M salary cap, and from BBREF (2nd column is next season):
Chicago is no threat and neither is Memphis considering they'll be trying to extend Morant this summer
Indiana? they have Brogdon & Hield locked up on long term deals; and they are decent contracts. They have TJ McConnell locked up on a 4 year deal that is leas than MLE money. And they have Tyrese Haliburton and Chris Duarte on rookie contracts. They are no threat
Detroit? They have Cade Cunningham and Killian Hayes playing PG, along with Cory Joseph. They also have Diallo and Jackson at guard. And they have a 20M cap-hold on Bagley that cap-number above doesn't account for. Unlikely to be a Simons suitor, but possible
Orlando? that's a deceptive number above. They have a 31M cap-hold for Gary Harris; a 21M cap-hold for Wendall Carter; and a 23M cap-hold for Mo Bamba. They have to renounce all three in order to clear enough space for Simons. They also have Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs filling the role that Simons plays. They are no threat
San Antonio? They have newly-minted all-star Dejonte Murray at PG. They just traded for Josh Richardson. They have Lonnie Walker at SG as well and he has a 13.3M cap-hold this summer. And McDermott is signed for two more years. The Spurs would have to juggles things and renounce Walker to make a max offer. Unlikely to be a Simons suitor
so that makes Detroit and San Antonio as the only 2 possible threats, and circumstances makes both unlikely
plus, every team would know that the Blazers are sure to match so that means the only teams that may make an offer are any teams that want to fuck with Portland's future cap & tax situation. I see only one team that might fit: OKC
now, that number above show OKC only 15M below the cap. But if you pull up their team page:
it shows them more than 40M below the cap. BB Insiders says they only have 69M in guaranteed salary, but they haven't done a trade deadline update yet. So the Thunder almost certainly have the space to make Ant a max offer. But would they?
go back to 2015. The Aldridge team had just broken up. Portland had gobs of cap-space. They offered Greg Monroe a max deal but he refused. They turned to Aminu and Ed Davis, signed both, but still had the space for a max deal. So, Olshey decided to send a fuck you to Presti and OKC by making a max offer to Enes Kanter. Could it be time for payback even though Paul Allen and Olshey are gone?
I don't know but I'd think OKC is by far the biggest threat.
