SI's grim assessment of the Blazers

[Shooter]

I'm wondering if they should try to make a run at getting the No. 1 pick this year. They've got Aldridge and one more established NBA starter in Batum, and that's it. Their big job is going to be to sell Aldridge on the program and that they're going to turn it around quickly. They also have to keep Lillard from getting ruined while they're losing a lot of games, and they have to be a hustling team because that's the only way they'll have any hope of keeping the fans on their side.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/basketball/nba/10/24/blazers-nba-season-preview/index.html

 

[BrianFromWA]

They go into the season with Nicolas Batum as their second-best player, and that is a real reach. I love Batum, but he is so overpaid [four years, $46.1 million] that I think it's going to come back to hurt him and them. They absolutely should have let him go [to Minnesota, which signed him to an offer sheet] for that much money. He can't carry your team. He's better than Bruce Bowen or Thabo Sefolosha, but his role is basically the same as their roles. You can't pay that kind of money for that many years to a player like that.

So while MIN is ready to hit the playoffs with Love and Rubio, and would've been great with Batum as #3, we should have "absolutely let him go" and it will "hurt our team" because he's playing with LMA and Lillard. This seems very lazy commentary (even if from a scout) and we hashed it over a bunch in July, so I won't more here.

He's the kind of guy who can have a phenomenal game one time, and then the next time you're asking how can they be paying him so much money ($6.5 million this season)

These guys seem awfully interested in how much we're overpaying our players, but if you don't think Wes would get an MLE from anyone right now, you're high. And, obtw, our cap was so hurt by this that we had room for a max offer this year and we're pretty damn close to having room for one next year.

Rookie point guard Damian Lillard is going to have the chance to come in and produce right away as a guy who puts up a lot of points on a bad team.

Because if he was with, say, the Knicks or Heat, he wouldn't sniff playing time, right?

J.J. Hickson was so bad last year in Sacramento, and then he went to Portland [after being waived] and looked so good. But I would point out that the Blazers lost most of those games.

With LMA out, Jonny Flynn and Nolan Smith splitting PG duties and Joel Pryzbilla and Kurt Thomas as the rest of the frontcourt minutes....who'd have guessed that?

I like Jared Jeffries in the right scenario. If he's on a good team, he can start as your fifth man and make a difference with his energy and defense. But this is not that scenario. He'll go through stretches where he is a major offensive liability. I don't see him being able to make a huge contribution to a bad team like this.

So if he's on a good team, he can start and make a difference. On our team, he can't "make a huge contribution (as a 7th- or 8th-man)" because he's a "major offensive liability", but on a good team that doesn't count b/c he brings energy and defense? WTF are you saying here?

I'm wondering if they should try to make a run at getting the No. 1 pick this year. They've got Aldridge and one more established NBA starter in Batum, and that's it.

The other spots are manned by two lottery picks, Wes Matthews (who's been starting for the better part of 2 years) and a guy who's been playing at a high level overseas for two-three years. Yeah, not "established NBA", but WTF, man...we're not worse than CHA or PHX or a number of others.

Their big job is going to be to sell Aldridge on the program and that they're going to turn it around quickly.

b/c there are only 3 years left on his contract. Guh.

They also have to keep Lillard from getting ruined while they're losing a lot of games, and they have to be a hustling team because that's the only way they'll have any hope of keeping the fans on their side.

I doubt he has any clue what POR fans need to keep showing up, and I'm wondering how he thinks Lillard is going to be "ruined." Was Kyrie Irving ruined? John Wall? Derrick Rose?

This article epitomizes why I haven't bought an SI since I was 15.

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/20...s-nba-season-preview/index.html#ixzz2AKrCvtnP

 

[Blaze01]

100% accurate....unfortunately....

LA is best as a #2 guy, not a #1

Batum is a rotation player at best, not a #2 guy and grossly overpaid now

Matthews is a guy who would be good coming off the bench and not as your starting 2-guard

Hickson is overated, looked good when he is the focal point down low (ie no LA) and the team is losing...but needing wins and playing alongside LA...very pedestrian....

Lillard will likely score a fair amount on a bad team....

Leonard should see a lot of time, yeah he has athleticism but his IQ and post game leave a lot to be desired....and he better stop bitching and whining about calls...it will only get worse for him when he pulls that crap....I expect to see a lot of vets like Carl Landry abuse the shit out of him this year....

He gives Babbitt too much credit, yeah he can shoot when no one is guarding him and there is no rpessure to actually make the shot, when those conditions are not met? clank...

and the rest...a bunch of veteran leftovers with little worth (Jeffires, Pavlovic and Price, really?) and young players worth marginal (see Barton, Freeland & Claver) or zero (Smith, perma injured E-Will) value....

yeah it really is THAT ugly...

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

I think its pretty spot on.

I think a more positive spin is:

LA is a good go to guy right now. But you have to do more to get someone to be "the man".
Batum is a role play.
Matthews is a great bench player.
Hickson would be a great backup PF
Lillard has the potential to be that #1 option and control the team
Leonard is a project that can probably help out eventually asa fringe starter/bench type

I think we're a good 2-guard away. Someone that will push Wes to the bench and be consistent. Then fill the holes in. We have probably good draft position and some cap space next year. I'll enjoy watching the team this year develop, personally.

 

[BrianFromWA]

You think that Batum and Bruce Bowen and/or Sefalosha are the same type of player?

 

[illmatic99]

We're a rebuilding team-- we expect to lose a lot. But the future is not as grim as this article implies.

 

[Natebishop3]

I think the national media is in for a surprise. I don't expect us to win a lot of games, but Lillard is going to win ROY this year, I have a feeling, and not because he "scored a lot of points on a bad team". I also think Batum will establish himself this year in a new offense and with a new point guard.

 

[e_blazer]

I think there's a reason that the guy that they're basing the article on is a scout rather than a GM. The Blazers have enough cap flexibility to finish the rebuild so the individual amounts that Nic and Wes are getting are not very important. Sure, Nic's probably overpaid by a couple of million, but Aldridge is probably underpaid by the same amount. Matthews salary doesn't seem significantly out of line to me.

Yeah, the Blazers are likely going to lose this year, but it's about getting the rookies some experience, getting another lottery pick, and then making some decisions on who to keep and who to let go next summer and, hopefully, add another quality FA.

This year will go down in the category of "rebuildng sucks", but if Lillard pans out, Nic can elevate his game, and the Blazers get a couple of breaks next summer, the rebuild doesn't have to last long.

 

[Rhal]

What a poorly and confusingly written article. Basically says the same thing as hollinger but in a very screwy and almost hypocritical way.

Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2

 

[Boob-No-More]

The comments about Batum are based on his role in the old NateBall system (i.e. stand in the corner and shoot an occasional 3). Based on what I saw Monday night, Nic is capable of much more. He now has a deadly pull-up/step-back mid-range jumper off the dribble, and is still an excellent 3-point and FT shooter.

"He's long and he defends, but he isn't a great shooter."

That's just plain lazy. Sounds like it was written by someone who has never seen Batum play, or looked at his stats. Batum shot .391 3FG% and .836 FT% last season. He as 17th in the league in eFG% and tied for 16 in 3FG, one ahead of Ray Allen. Shooting is NOT a weakness for Batum.

"He's better than Bruce Bowen or Thabo Sefolosha, but his role is basically the same as their roles."

This is total bullshit. Last season, Nic averaged 13.9 PPG. Thabo Sefolosha averaged 4.8 PPG. Bruce Bowen was a career 6.1 PPG scorer and had a career best 8.5 PPG at the age of 33. He's already twice the scorer Bowen was and 3x the score Sefolosha is. And, he's only 23, still improving and will now be playing in a system that takes advantage of his skills and athleticism.

"You can't pay that kind of money for that many years to a player like that."

Time will tell if Batum is worth his contract. He's only 23 and has not yet reached his potential or entered his prime. He will only be 27 when his contract is up. It's not outlandish that he will develop into a 19 - 20 PPG scorer by the time his contract is up. That's only an increase of 5 - 6 PPG compared to last season under Nate. There were only 17 player in the entire league that averaged 19 PPG last season - and they all make more than Batum.

P.S. I wonder if the "opposing scout" was from an Eastern Conference team that only saw Nic play twice last year.

BNM

 

[mook]

I thought that article was way, way, waaaaaayyyy too grim. It made Portland sound like a 20 win team. It ain't.

Most people paying attention project Lillard to go for 16/6 or so (I personally feel he'll do better) and Aldridge will get his 22/8 (again, I think he'll do better in a more uptempo offense, but whatever). Batum and Matthews will also average double digit scoring with good defense. Hickson can get his 10 or so garbage buckets too.

Sure, the bench sucks and it's incredibly young, but this team will put a lot of points on the board this year. If it stays healthy and maybe picks up a bench piece or two through trade, the 8th seed is certainly possible. Considering we basically lost two franchise players in the past two years to career ending injury, that ain't bad.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Turd polishing time.

LA and Lillard are the only potential bright spots on this team. On a rookie deal, Batum was a disappointment. On his current contract, he is an albatross. Yes, he *could* be a good player, but it ain't gonna happen. The rest of the roster are generic journeymen or worse.

30 wins would take a minor miracle.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

This article is 100% accurate and those who don't agree are need to get their heads out of their asses. This article pleases me in that special area.

[/DWIGHTJAYNES]

 

[HailBlazers]

LA and Lillard are the only potential bright spots on this team.

Wish my head was up my ass so I didn't have any expectations (a la omg).

Overall, I'm glad the national media is down on the Blazers, this organization thrives on being the underdog.

Last year we were predicted to do well, and we all know how that turned out.

 

[Charcoal Filtered]

30 wins would take a minor miracle.

You overestimate some of the teams in full tank mode.

 

[Shooter]

I've seen this happen many times over the years. A national publication will give a disappointing review of the Blazers, and rabid Blazer fans will start screaming about it, as if the writer is a total idiot. Most of the time, of course, the guy is right.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

all it takes is a huge trade. its happened before.

:MARIS61:

 

[Boob-No-More]

I've seen this happen many times over the years. A national publication will give a disappointing review of the Blazers, and rabid Blazer fans will start screaming about it, as if the writer is a total idiot. Most of the time, of course, the guy is right.

I think he's right about many things, but completely wrong about others. I think that's par for the course. This roster has a LOT of unknowns - starting with 5 rookies and a new head coach. Hard to get everything right with so many variables.

BNM

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

all it takes is a huge trade. its happened before.

:MARIS61:

I'm really looking forward to your Iggy/Portland threads.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

game changer!

 

[oldmangrouch]

all it takes is a huge trade. its happened before.

:MARIS61:

When was the last time one of those involved Portland?

You are talking about a front office that rewarded Batum for saying he wanted out of Portland so bad he was willing to sign with the TWolves.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I think he's right about many things, but completely wrong about others. I think that's par for the course. This roster has a LOT of unknowns - starting with 5 rookies and a new head coach. Hard to get everything right with so many variables.

BNM

There are a lot of unknowns and maybe some of them will turn into serviceable players (Claver, Freeland and Barton) but god damn, that bench is mostly just a hot plate of garbage. The starters are going to have to play out of their minds this year if they want to win consistently. Any let up or even just average performances and that horrific, kludge of rejects and cast-offs (the bench) is going to give a lot of games away.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

When was the last time one of those involved Portland?

You are talking about a front office that rewarded Batum for saying he wanted out of Portland so bad he was willing to sign with the TWolves.

Pippen.
Sheed.


{Poasted via palm pilot}

 

[ODENISGOD]

Turd polishing time.

LA and Lillard are the only potential bright spots on this team. On a rookie deal, Batum was a disappointment. On his current contract, he is an albatross. Yes, he *could* be a good player, but it ain't gonna happen. The rest of the roster are generic journeymen or worse.

30 wins would take a minor miracle.

Could not of said it better myself. Finally someone who is not a complete homer. Sometimes I think that half the people on here are Mike Barrett.

 

[Natebishop3]

Could not of said it better myself. Finally someone who is not a complete homer. Sometimes I think that half the people on here are Mike Barrett.

I'm Mike Barrett!

[video]

 

[THE HCP]

Could not of said it better myself. Finally someone who is not a complete homer. Sometimes I think that half the people on here are Mike Barrett.

Are you still around. Go over to the Wolves forum..... you bore us!

 

[Boob-No-More]

Could not of said it better myself.

Sure you could have:

Turd polishing time!!!!!!!!!!

LA and Lillard are the only potential bright spots on this team!!!!! On a rookie deal, Batum was a disappointment!!!!! On his current contract, he is an albatross!!!!! Yes, he *could* be a good player, but it ain't gonna happen!!!!!!!! The rest of the roster are generic journeymen or worse!!!!!!!!!!

30 wins would take a minor miracle!!!!!!!!!!

 

[jlprk]

Pippen.
Sheed.

Bring back Bob!

1
"He's long and he defends, but he isn't a great shooter."

That's just plain lazy. Sounds like it was written by someone who has never seen Batum play, or looked at his stats. Batum shot .391 3FG% and .836 FT% last season. He as 17th in the league in eFG% and tied for 16 in 3FG, one ahead of Ray Allen. Shooting is NOT a weakness for Batum.

2
"He's better than Bruce Bowen or Thabo Sefolosha, but his role is basically the same as their roles."

This is total bullshit. Last season, Nic averaged 13.9 PPG. Thabo Sefolosha averaged 4.8 PPG. Bruce Bowen was a career 6.1 PPG scorer and had a career best 8.5 PPG at the age of 33. He's already twice the scorer Bowen was and 3x the score Sefolosha is. And, he's only 23, still improving and will now be playing in a system that takes advantage of his skills and athleticism.

3
"You can't pay that kind of money for that many years to a player like that."

Time will tell if Batum is worth his contract. He's only 23 and has not yet reached his potential or entered his prime. He will only be 27 when his contract is up. It's not outlandish that he will develop into a 19 - 20 PPG scorer by the time his contract is up. That's only an increase of 5 - 6 PPG compared to last season under Nate. There were only 17 player in the entire league that averaged 19 PPG last season - and they all make more than Batum.

1
When has he ever won a game in the last minute? His shooting is like Babbitt's, opportunistic only when wide open, and unreliable when it matters.
2
Your answer is a non sequitor. The writer says that like 2 players he names, Batum is a defender who is an afterthought in the designed plays, and you simply show that Batum gets more points than them. Irrelevant.
3
You say that IF Batum gets up to 19 ppg in his last contract year, he won't be overpaid that year, after being overpaid in all the years before his last year. You worked hard to find a stat to prove your straw man. Nice stat.

 

[Boob-No-More]

1 When has he ever won a game in the last minute?

Did you forget about this:

[video=youtube;8O_BT4oUkOY]

Not only did he score the game winner, he scored the final 4 points of the game in 0.9 seconds.

How many opportunities did Nic have to win games under Nate? Other than the lob from Miller, not many. When he had Roy, it was always an ISO for Roy with the game on the line, which worked well when Roy was healthy. When he didn't have Roy, Nate still ran ISO after ISO with the game on the line. He did it when Bayless was filling in for Roy. He even tried to do it with Andre Miller against NOH one time and blew an 8-point lead in the final minutes to lose by 1. Last year, rather than change his strategy, he simply plugged Jamaal Crawford into the Roy ISO. We all saw how well that worked.

2 The writer says that like 2 players he names, Batum is a defender who is an afterthought in the designed plays...

He was an afterthought under Nate. That should change now. Roy is gone, Nate is gone, Crawford is gone. Now Nic will finally get some plays run for him. And, even without any plays run for him, he still averaged 13.9 PPG last season. Imagine how much more he will score with a coach that actually runs set plays for him.

3 You say that IF Batum gets up to 19 ppg in his last contract year, he won't be overpaid that year, after being overpaid in all the years before his last year.

That's not what I said. You may want to learn how to use the quoting feature. Or, perhaps not. It would prevent you from putting your own spin on what others have written.

OK, fine. Look at it this way. Last season, in a slow paced system, with a coach that didn't run set plays for him, Batum averaged 13.9 PPG. He was 48th in the league in scoring. This season, his salary is $11,950,000 - the HIGHEST of his 4-year contract (Minnesota front loaded their offer). And, guess what, that makes him the 49th highest player in the NBA this season. So, even if his scoring doesn't increase under Stotts, his salary is still in line with his scoring ability. Throw in the fact that he also plays great defense, is still only 23, will likely score more, play more minutes and a bigger role, over the next four years, and his contract doesn't look bad at all. And, if he can improve his scoring gradually, something like 16 PPG, 17 PPG, 18 PPG, 19 PPG over the next four seasons, and he will be a bargain and just entering what should be the prime of his career.

BNM

 

[jlprk]

Your answers for all 3 were: The writer was correct about Batum so far, but he should be psychic and see that Batum will improve with McMillan gone.

After you upbraided me on Point 3, you gave a fishy stat that a 13.9 ppg average ranks #48 in the league (each team has only 48/30=1.6 players scoring that much?), so I checked and it was #69. That destroys your Point 3 defense that even if Batum doesn't improve his ppg, the new contract still won't overpay him.

http://bkref.com/tiny/IuMGt