(Slightly OT): If Oden signs for minimum w/Heat...

[BrianFromWA]

Chris Broussard says "it's a wrap!."

Also, guess what low-priced but potentially high-impact free agent they've got their eye on? Greg Oden. They can win it without Oden, of course, but if they get him and he can stay healthy and give them something like eight points and eight boards a game, it's a wrap. Bottom line is that there is absolutely no reason to say this team -- with arguably the two best players in the world in their primes -- can't win several rings. Honestly, unless another super merger creates another Big Three or Gigantic Two (Dwight Howard, Chris Paul), the only team that can stop the Heat is the Heat.

While I semi-agree...I'm thinking that's a lot like saying "If Portland traded Roy for Durant, Oden played 40mpg every game, and we got NOH to trade CP3 for Miller, it's all over!"

I also have my eye on the Medal of Honor and a winning lotto ticket, but since I'm neither in a combat zone or buying tickets, it doesn't really help me much.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

I'd trade Oden for D-Wade.

 

[julius]

if Greg signs for the minimum, he's a bigger idiot then Qyntel Woods.

Take the money now, try for a title later. 15-25 million in the bank is a LOT of sav.

 

[Mediocre Man]

I wonder if Broussard or the Heat understand that Greg is not an unrestricted FA?

 

[RR7]

I wonder if Broussard or the Heat understand that Greg is not an unrestricted FA?

Doubt it. I certainly hope Greg signs a minimum salary offer sheet with the Heat.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I don't see any mention in his article anywhere about him signing for the minimum. Furthermore, I don't really get what you're mocking Brian? He's correct, but that's mainly because I think it's nearly a wrap for the Heat without Oden too; they don't need much more than what they have.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Who's mocking Brian?

 

[Nikolokolus]

Who's mocking Brian?

I guess I'm mostly referring to Brian's semi mocking "tone" with this statement: "If Portland traded Roy for Durant, Oden played 40mpg every game, and we got NOH to trade CP3 for Miller, it's all over!" As if the Heat signing Greg to an offer sheet too rich for Portland's blood is somehow ridiculous. I suspect the Blazers would match an MLE type of offer sheet, but you never know.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I find it horribly laughable to think that anything that would qualify as "low-priced" to Micky Arison would be "too rich" for Paul Allen. Bucher was the one who put the "minimum contract" thing in there. The most MIA can offer is the MLE (if there still is an MLE, which isn't a given), unless they're using one of their Big 3 in an S&T (which may not be allowed, either).

And I meant it in a "duh" way. Yes, if Greg is healthy enough to, as Broussard says, "stay healthy and give them 8 and 8 a game", then adding him to the Heat would make them about unstoppable. I have no problems with that statement, other than if Greg is healthy he's getting more than 8 rebounds a game in that system...but I digress. It's the attitude of "if the Heat pry Oden away with a low offer, and he stays healthy, it's over" that made me mock it by using the Roy-for-Durant, CP3-for-Miller thing, because in my mind there's exactly the same chance of either happening.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Mike Bibby walked away from 6 million dollars this year for a chance to win a title ... granted Oden and Bibby's circumstances are different, but I don't know if it's all that crazy to think that Oden might take slightly less money to go someplace like Miami where he can be the 4th best player, play fewer minutes, be a role-player and see the sun shine 11 months out of the year.

 

[e_blazer]

Frankly, I don't see anything in Broussard's post that doesn't deserve to be mocked. In fact, I'd mock anybody who thinks that Oden is going to be a low-priced get this summer or that the Blazers wouldn't match any low-priced offer. What's the Internet for if not for mocking mockable statements?

 

[e_blazer]

Mike Bibby walked away from 6 million dollars this year for a chance to win a title ... granted Oden and Bibby's circumstances are different, but I don't know if it's all that crazy to think that Oden might take slightly less money to go someplace like Miami where he can be the 4th best player, play fewer minutes, be a role-player and see the sun shine 11 months out of the year.

Careful, Nic. You're closing in on mockable territory. Oden will not be a UFA unless the Blazers choose to allow him to be...and they won't.

 

[BrianFromWA]

but it's not his choice to accept a low-ball offer. If he does, say, accept a 2-yr BAE to go "ring-chasing", the Blazers can take whatever deal he signs as their own, and he can wait another couple of years to go ring-chasing.

If you were talking about summer of 2012, then what you (and Broussard) are talking about is an option. Today? Not a bloody chance in hell.

 

[Denny Crane]

He's UFA if the Blazers decide to wash their hands of him or don't want to pay him the QO amount or higher.

 

[Mediocre Man]

That would be dumb, even for our front office

 

[BlazerCaravan]

That would be dumb, even for our front office

Even Minnesota's front office wouldn't do that...

...they'd amputate him at the knees to make him a sub-6'0" point guard though.

 

[Denny Crane]

That would be dumb, even for our front office

It's not dumb. #1 picks require ~$7M just for the QO. At what point do you say you've spent enough and aren't likely to get value for the money spent?

 

[BrianFromWA]

at the point you can no longer get value. I don't think Oden's anywhere close to that point.

 

[Rhal]

It's not dumb. #1 picks require ~$7M just for the QO. At what point do you say you've spent enough and aren't likely to get value for the money spent?

It is very very stupid when you have a #1 pick that has an injury history but has shown a lot of potential and you have no cap space to begin with. There is no reason to not offer him the 8.8m QO when it doesn't effect our non existent cap. A healthy Oden makes us a great team and there is no player we can get that is anywhere near the potential of Oden.

 

[e_blazer]

I also think that there's nearly zero chance that Oden won't get better multi-year offers from other teams, the Blazers, or most likely both, that will far exceed the QO amount. I know PapaG disagrees with this, but I think the odds are really remote that Oden would reject those multi-year deals just so that he can play one year on the QO contract and become an UFA the following summer.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Careful, Nic. You're closing in on mockable territory. Oden will not be a UFA unless the Blazers choose to allow him to be...and they won't.

If he takes the QO, then he will be a UFA in a year ... what's so "mockable" about that?

 

[e_blazer]

If he takes the QO, then he will be a UFA in a year ... what's so "mockable" about that?

Nothing, but then you didn't say that he might look to sign with the Heat in a year. The article referenced in this thread is about this off-season.

Sorry, I'm not really looking to give you grief, but I really think that the worrying around here about Oden looking to be an UFA next year is off the mark. He's a young player who's looking for his first big multi-year deal. Given his injury history, I think he's going to want to get a long-term deal ASAP, not look to position himself for an end-of-career low-ball move where the primary concern is getting a title.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Nothing, but then you didn't say that he might look to sign with the Heat in a year. The article referenced in this thread is about this off-season.

Sorry, I'm not really looking to give you grief, but I really think that the worrying around here about Oden looking to be an UFA next year is off the mark. He's a young player who's looking for his first big multi-year deal. Given his injury history, I think he's going to want to get a long-term deal ASAP, not look to position himself for an end-of-career low-ball move where the primary concern is getting a title.

Actually I'm not worried about him being an UFA at all ... Him staying or going doesn't mean that much to me anymore.

 

[e_blazer]

Actually I'm not worried about him being an UFA at all ... Him staying or going doesn't mean that much to me any more.

There you go with the mockable stuff again.

Seriously, though, you seem so locked on pessimistic about the Blazers. With LA and Wallace, getting Oden back at even the Bowie-esque numbers talked about in the other thread would give the Blazers one of the best, perhaps THE best, front courts in the league, IMO. I think getting him back is reason enough for at least some marginal enthusiasm. I figure he's broken about everything there was to break and maybe we get a few decent years out of him. I'll settle for that.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I just need to see some evidence that he's capable of actually playing through a whole season before I get "optimistic" about him. If he can do that then we'll talk.

Beyond that, I'm thinking more long-term about what this team is going to look like. If the NHL lockout is any kind of guide (The NBA owners and players with similar 'intractable issues') we could be looking at a completely lost season, which means no likely successor for Andre Miller, Camby will be retired, etc. So also show me what the roster is going to look like in 18 months and we'll talk about optimism.

 

[PapaG]

Oden signs Q.O., plays for $8.8m in Portland.

Oden signs MLE with Heatles in summer of 2012.

That's not very far-fetched for 2012. For 2011, it's impossible, though.

 

[PapaG]

I also think that there's nearly zero chance that Oden won't get better multi-year offers from other teams, the Blazers, or most likely both, that will far exceed the QO amount. I know PapaG disagrees with this, but I think the odds are really remote that Oden would reject those multi-year deals just so that he can play one year on the QO contract and become an UFA the following summer.

To be fair, my opinion on that is based on a hypothetical "Oden wants a fresh start in another city" strawman. If Oden doesn't mind staying in Portland, then he'll be a Blazer (assuming the Blazers will pay to keep him).

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Fuck the Heat. I hope we sign GO longterm out of spite just to piss off Miami.

 

[RR7]

To be fair, my opinion on that is based on a hypothetical "Oden wants a fresh start in another city" strawman. If Oden doesn't mind staying in Portland, then he'll be a Blazer (assuming the Blazers will pay to keep him).

I think maybe he wouldn't be opposed to a fresh start, but I can't see him taking the risk of the QO IF another team offers him a long term deal. Knowing that portland would likely match. The security of a long term deal woudl over ride, IMO, his desire to go elsewhere. He could have the plan of sign the QO, then go UFA in 2012. But there will be some teams with cap space this offseaon, depending on what that cap looks like, and if someone said 4 years, 40, I can't see it being worth the risk, to him, of hoping to stay healthy, and just grabbing the QO.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Either Oden's injuries are legit, and his career is toast.....or he hates Portland so much much he will never be "healthy" until he gets away from here.

Either way, I don't expect to ever see him play for the Blazers.