So: are we going to be TOO good?

[oldmangrouch]

I think the playoff is its own school. If you want a team to improve, they need to get some playoff experience..we have cap space and assets to trade..the draft is as much a crap shoot as a strategy.

If you can make the play-offs - great. We won't.

As for the rest - we will just have to agree to disagree. You consider the draft a crap-shoot...I consider free agency a bad joke.

 

[riverman]

If you can make the play-offs - great. We won't.

As for the rest - we will just have to agree to disagree. You consider the draft a crap-shoot...I consider free agency a bad joke.

Meyers Leonard drafted at 11
TRob drafted at 5
Wes Mathews, undrafted
We now have about 9 top draft picks without drafting most of them and I don't consider them bad jokes..we disagree.

 

[Draco]

But he'll be 27... that still gives him 3-4 really good years, maybe more if he can get his shot back.

So yeah this year and next year rebuilding is fine. But if he's 27 and we aren't a playoff team that means we're years away from the jump to playoffs and years on top of that away from the playoff team to contender jump. With a star nearing 30 we wouldn't necessarily have to trade him but it'd become an option to seriously consider.

 

[tlongII]

No.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Finish 8th in your conference and you make the play-offs. Finish 15th and you get a high draft pick. Finish 9th or 10th and what do you get? The knowledge that next season is going to suck also.

Ridiculous? It is the only sensible way to look at it. Name one person in the HOF who cared about "moral victories".

False assumptions lead to false conclusions.

Finishing 9th or 10th in the conference does not necessarily mean that you're going to suck the next year as well. You need only look back three years at the Blazers' own history to see an example.

This season is about growth, plain and simple. If we grow to a 45 win team that misses the playoffs, that absolutely portends positive things for the future. Your unwillingness to see or acknowledge it doesn't make it any less true.

 

[Draco]

That's simply an absolutely ridiculous way to look at things.

It's funny because when we were a playoff team without home court the narrative was that was the worst position; in purgatory. Not a favorite to win a series but not acquiring lottery picks. Now the narrative some fans have is we have to not only be in the lottery but also have one of the top picks. A lottery pick that isn't top 5 is now purgatory. But we have to keep the talent of an allstar on the team with young players who have upside? That an unlikely set of criteria to aim for.

 

[PDXFonz]

(Kool-Aid man comes busting through the wall) Ohhhhh, yeahhhhh!!

And in answer to this question, that's exactly what I think will happen. We'll be too good to get a top 5 pick, but not good enough to make the playoffs. Another 10-13 pick, I'm guessing. But with all this developing youth, I'm perfectly OK with that.

Lets draft another tall white center who can shoot 3's. After seeing Sacramento's announcer get tripped up I think it would be fun to see everybody confuse Plumlee/Leonard/Tall White Draft Pick

 

[BonesJones]

Lets draft another tall white center who can shoot 3's. After seeing Sacramento's announcer get tripped up I think it would be fun to see everybody confuse Plumlee/Leonard/Tall White Draft Pick

The Legend and the Dragon

 

[KingSpeed]

If you can make the play-offs - great. We won't.
.

I have a feeling we will.

 

[KingSpeed]

False assumptions lead to false conclusions.

Finishing 9th or 10th in the conference does not necessarily mean that you're going to suck the next year as well. You need only look back three years at the Blazers' own history to see an example.

This season is about growth, plain and simple. If we grow to a 45 win team that misses the playoffs, that absolutely portends positive things for the future. Your unwillingness to see or acknowledge it doesn't make it any less true.

Exactly. The team will improve from within next season.

 

[riverman]

I just don't want to get any younger after this season..next off season I want needle movers .

 

[KingSpeed]

I knew Duncan was the old one of that bunch.

I didn't list Shaq and Kobe because I knew they were further apart. Most cores though are pretty close in age throughout the history of great teams.

If you have 2 players in the top 50 best players ever, then yes, the age wont matter as much. but we don't and I think that's in part a bigger reason to keep the ages closer. So they can groom together. Kobe was brought in as an 18 year old and rode the bench and learned from Magic. By the time he was thrust next to Shaq, he was ready and was the next Jordan. with players of that caliber, age isn't as big a factor. The same could be said about Parker and Duncan. Duncan is a top 50 player (not sure about Parker).

I think though SA is the model you are describing, especially as we watch them continue to tweak and modify.

Kobe didn't play with Magic.

 

[PDXFonz]

I just don't want to get any younger after this season..next off season I want needle movers .

Then we better not draft Benjamin Button

 

[ThugginPaulyGAllen]

It shouldn't be a concern this year. Even next season if the team is losing its still fine. But if we aren't a playoff team by 2017-18 it might be time to consider trading Lillard while he's in the final couple years of his prime. So I think because of Damian's age this rebuild has a two year window. If we were rebuilding around a 19 year old rookie it would be very different.

We are looking at it from different points; if we AREN"T concerned with Damian's timeline, then we SHOULD want a top 5 pick to grow next to him, whom will most likely be reaching potential when Damian is 29/30.

If we ARE concerned with his timeline then we SHOULDN'T want a top 5 pick, we should want to win, because we don't have time to develop an 18 year old for 4 years then make a playoff push. Doesn't make sense. Pretty much waste 4 years of Damian's contract to develop someone who MIGHT take us over the top?

For that reason, Damian's timeline should be a concern to us all, immediately. His timeline wouldn't be a concern to me in two years if we still are a middling team; thats when you move away from Damian's timeline. Not now.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Tell me who on this roster is going to be our 2nd all-star? One stud and a bunch of competent rotation players aren't going to get the job done.

Some of you need to put down the box-wine and recognize that "young" doesn't mean "high ceiling." No amount of time,patience, or hope is going to change that. This roster isn't talented enough. Accept it and move on!

 

[riverman]

Tell me who on this roster is going to be our 2nd all-star? One stud and a bunch of competent rotation players aren't going to get the job done.

Some of you need to put down the box-wine and recognize that "young" doesn't mean "high ceiling." No amount of time,patience, or hope is going to change that. This roster isn't talented enough. Accept it and move on!

This roster that just really beat the Warriors starters into the ground? That's not talented? We have no idea how much improvement we'll see from guys like Leoanard, CJ, Harkless, Aminu, Davis, Vonleh or even Henderson...there's talent on this roster..that doesn't translate instantly to chemistry but it's all coaching..I'm not saying contender but we've got a good chance of having a couple of these guys make huge gains this season.

 

[Draco]

Tell me who on this roster is going to be our 2nd all-star? One stud and a bunch of competent rotation players aren't going to get the job done.

Some of you need to put down the box-wine and recognize that "young" doesn't mean "high ceiling." No amount of time,patience, or hope is going to change that. This roster isn't talented enough. Accept it and move on!

I'd accept your "young doesn't mean high ceiling" if the roster was full of Luis Montero's, Cliff Alexander's and Tim Fraziers.

Noah Vonleh is a 20 year old lottery pick; that is a high ceiling. Meyers is a lottery pick who had one of the best shooting seasons in the history of the league. CJ is another lottery pick with two years left on a rookie deal that had back to back 20 point playoff games. Yes there are unrealistic fans saying we are for certain making the playoffs; but its just as ridiculous to say for certain none of our young players have a high ceiling.

Look at the Lakers, or Nuggets, or Twolves, or Mavs, or Suns, or Jazz? Who are their second all stars? We have no idea because they don't even have one. All unproven young players are a risk. Thats why Neil filled the roster with a bunch of them. I'm not sure what strategy you'd prefer to get a top5 pick; should the Blazers trade away Lillard? Or trade Vonleh, Meyers and CJ for future picks?

 

[KeepOnRollin]

This year? No, we aren't too good. Inexperience and possibly injuries (knock on wood) will keep ups top 5 but we aren't getting a top 2 pick imo.

However, I think the talent is here in 3 years. One of Leonard, CJ or Vonleh will make an All-Star game (as a reserve) in 3 seasons. Now will that be enough for us to be a championship contender? Maybe not. But the cupboard certainly isn't bare imo.

Remember, we have a shitload of cap space (although so do other teams this summer) to add a 2nd star. So it is conceivable we have a big 3 in 3 years if what I said about the All-Star game player on our roster being true.

 

[Denny Crane]

The object of the game is to score more points than the opposition.

The team is spending 10s of $millions on professionals. They obviously should try to win every game they can.

Moneyball definitely wins regular season games.

 

[42N8Bounce]

I agree that we don't want to be stuck in that purgatory middle ground. However, to have a legitimate shot at making it to the finals, I think you need to have two all-star caliber players, along with at least 4 more solid starter-caliber players. This current team only has the single all-star. No one else on the roster has proven that they're worthy of being called a solid starter yet.

By the end of this year I think we'll know exactly what we have with Aminu (25), Davis (26), and Plumlee (25). A few players will hopefully show improvement this year, but I don't think we'll really know what we have until next year - McCollum (24), Leonard (23), and Crabbe (23). Others are probably 2-3 years away from even having an idea what their potential may be - Harkless (22), Connaughton (22), Vonleh (20), and Alexander (19).

Can we find an all-star and 4 starter-caliber players in that crop of potential? I'm hopeful, but I think we'll need help from the draft and free-agency. My guess is that over the next 2 years, 3 of this current young group will rise up and become worthy of being called a solid starter.

Where are we going to get that second all-star and another solid starter? I think we can lure a sold starter thru free agency. Luring an all-star thru free agency will be tough though. If we can do that, we'll be back in the hunt in about 2-3 years. If not, we'll need to look at getting that all-star thru the draft. If we go that route, we're 4+ years out from really competing at a top level. What are the odds of landing a all-star in the draft?



If we win between 32-38 games this year, that will probably put us in the 8-12 draft range. That draft choice probably wont be much benefit to us next year, so my guess is we'll be at the tail end of the lottery again after next season. I think we'll get two swings at landing an all-star and/or a top level starter thru the draft. Looking at this graph, I give us a 25% chance of finding a difference maker. Then it will take us 2 more years to really develop that player into our core. I think we're 4-5 years out from truly competing at a high level. That's still within Dame's window of top productivity.

With that being said, I think we're going to see some fun basketball this season, and I'm looking forward to watching these young guns grow.

 

[Nikolokolus]

If the odds are a 40% chance of drafting an All-Star in the top five of the draft and all this team has to do is endure a season or two of real bonch-kissing suckiness vs. the almost nil chance of luring a big time free agent, and the only slightly less shitty odds of making a lopsided trade for an all-star caliber player, then I'm not sure how it's even debatable what the organizational goal should be.

Sure, there's still a chance maybe Vonleh or one of the other guys turns into a total stud in a couple of years, but there's a reason they were available for cheap this off-season. The bloom is off the rose with most of these guys (Davis, Aminu, etc.); their ceilings have been somewhat defined as they've accrued seasons of play and they are more likely to be on that red line in the chart above and not the guys on the yellow line.

 

[stampedehero]

The factor we all must accept are injuries . On paper and what happens are two different realities. Believe me, being a Ravens fan, I have it first take.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Tell me who on this roster is going to be our 2nd all-star? One stud and a bunch of competent rotation players aren't going to get the job done.

Some of you need to put down the box-wine and recognize that "young" doesn't mean "high ceiling." No amount of time,patience, or hope is going to change that. This roster isn't talented enough. Accept it and move on!

Man, Really living up to your name aren't ya?

This is too much of an unknown, but if you don't think CJ or Meyers have potential to become an all star then I don't think you u judge talent and upside very well.

 

[illmatic99]

This roster that just really beat the Warriors starters into the ground? That's not talented? We have no idea how much improvement we'll see from guys like Leoanard, CJ, Harkless, Aminu, Davis, Vonleh or even Henderson...there's talent on this roster..that doesn't translate instantly to chemistry but it's all coaching..I'm not saying contender but we've got a good chance of having a couple of these guys make huge gains this season.

sigh

 

[Orion Bailey]

sigh

Why sigh? He is 100% correct. We don't know how much they will improve and to just right them off as they wont is as ludicrous as saying we will win a ring this year....


SIGH....

 

[illmatic99]

It's preseason. The Hornets are undefeated and beat the Clippers (with everyone playing) by 42.

To make much of any of this stuff is what drew my sigh.

 

[riverman]

I understand the logic folks use and subscribe to when it comes to the draft and building a team. I am obnoxiously optimistic on purpose. It's how I approach every season. All of my decades of being a fan I've learned to surf the ups and downs and still enjoy the game. I look at it like a choice...you can build swagger as a fan base and cheer away..compliment the organization or you can be pessimistic and second guess the organization, punctuate it with doubt and wait for the old, I told you so redemption. Choices. I don't buy this history has to repeat itself mantra..players want to be in a system and culture to maximize their chance for success. I'd rather have Allan Crabbe than Rajon Rondo right now. I'd rather have Ed Davis than Robin Lopez. I'd rather have Terry Stotts than Stan Van Gundy

 

[Natebishop3]

Kobe didn't play with Magic.

Yup. Magic was there the year before with Eddie Jones, Nick the Quick, and Vlade.

 

[Orion Bailey]

I understand the logic folks use and subscribe to when it comes to the draft and building a team. I am obnoxiously optimistic on purpose. It's how I approach every season. All of my decades of being a fan I've learned to surf the ups and downs and still enjoy the game. I look at it like a choice...you can build swagger as a fan base and cheer away..compliment the organization or you can be pessimistic and second guess the organization, punctuate it with doubt and wait for the old, I told you so redemption. Choices. I don't buy this history has to repeat itself mantra..players want to be in a system and culture to maximize their chance for success. I'd rather have Allan Crabbe than Rajon Rondo right now. I'd rather have Ed Davis than Robin Lopez. I'd rather have Terry Stotts than Stan Van Gundy

Great post. This is my say when I talk about a glass being half full or half empty. Its all about the spin you want to put on it, but that spin, is ONLY going to affect your personal happiness. If you wanna be a pissed off disgruntled fan, that's your right, but it makes no sense to me...

 

[ThugginPaulyGAllen]

Tell me who on this roster is going to be our 2nd all-star? One stud and a bunch of competent rotation players aren't going to get the job done.

Some of you need to put down the box-wine and recognize that "young" doesn't mean "high ceiling." No amount of time,patience, or hope is going to change that. This roster isn't talented enough. Accept it and move on!

What were the spurs? Duncan - Parker - Kawhi and a bunch of role players - look at TP and Duncan's stats last year - they haven't been absolute studs, aside from possibly Kawhi. I concede we don't have these players or coaches, but having a BUNCH of COMPETENT role players have been the Spurs calling card since Duncan and Ginobli started their decline; and you could throw TP in there after his eye injury, as well. It's not like Duncan or Parker (even during their championship) were the greatest players on the planet. They were both a shell of there former selves who were surrounded by elite rotation players.

I said that we can package some of our talent for better talent; AND thru WINNING we will be able to land a 'second' or 'third' fiddle quite easily, and maintain our superb depth. Assuming that someone such as Vonleh, Meyers, McCollum, etc doesn't turn into a second or third fiddle.

Obviously you didn't quote my post, so I don't know if you're referencing me or not, but there is a response for you.

And the last thing you wrote, I'd say is one of the most illogical statements I've ever read regarding basketball.if we have young players, we shouldn't be patient with them? Because time won't make them better? Nor will patience? With time and patience comes coaching, which should make a bunch of players who have not yet reached their primes, better. Or else that is a coaching issue. (Just to clarify, the final statement is what I'm attacking, NOT you.)

Sheesh, good thing that memo didn't get to Meyers Leonard or any other player in the NBA who ever improved between seasons.

The patient man prevails, homie.