So, Where Would LMA Go in 2015?

[e_blazer]

We've spent a lot of time around here talking about whether the Blazers need to trade LMA now or by the deadline in order to avoid having him walk away at the end of his contract in the Summer of 2015 and leave the Blazers with nothing in return. I thought maybe it would be a good idea to look at this the other way around. If the Blazers are content to let his contract run its course and then negotiate when it expires, what are the options open to LMA as far as teams that meet his likely objectives. In other words, what teams will have the cap space to make him a max- or near-max contract and be in a better position to contend than the Blazers will be?

In the East, I see the following as potential contenders in 2015 (* indicates things really have to break their way):

Heat
Nets
Bulls
Pacers
Knicks*
Cavaliers*

In the West:

Thunder
Rockets
Warriors
Clippers
Grizzlies
Mavericks*
Spurs*
Lakers*

Note: I'm assuming a 2015 salary cap of around $63M.

Miami Heat
I could see the Heat being interested in enticing LeBron to stick around by replacing Bosh with Aldridge. The problem for them is that the decision year when LBJ, Bosh and Wade have options is 2014, not 2015. Either they will spend their money re-signing those core pieces that summer or will have been dumped by LBJ seeking greener pastures. So, either they won't have the cap space or they won't have the main horse to remain a contender in 2015.

Brooklyn Nets
Joe Johnson, Brook Lopez, & Deron Williams are signed through 2016 and those 3 guys alone put them over the cap.

Chicgo Bulls
The Bulls have Rose, Noah, and Gibson signed through 2016 to the tune of $42M.They have decisions to make next summer concerning Deng and Hinrich. Assuming they want to keep Butler and Teague, and with the rookies they'll sign between now and then, it's pretty unlikely that they have the cap space to make a max offer. Possible, if they wanted to really clear the roster for LMA, but not likely.

Indiana Pacers
If the Pacers re-sign Granger next summer, they'll be over the cap unless HIbbert or West opt out, neither of which seems likely.

New York Knicks
With Stoudemire, Anthony, Chandler and Bargnani all UFAs in the summer of 2015, the Knicks could be major players for LMA. The question is whether they're also serious contenders. This is another case where next summer could be the real turning point. Carmelo, Stoudemire and Bargnani all have player options. I can't see the latter two opting out of their fat contracts, but Melo is certainly on the Laker's radar for next summer. Without him, I don't really see the Knicks as being serious contenders for a title.

Cleveland Cavaliers
They can have the cap space if they let Bynum and Varejao walk, but only if they snag LBJ or another real major player next summer do they rise to the serious contender level, IMO. If they do that, they probably hang on to those other guys and don't have the cap space or need for LMA.

Thunder
Durant, Westbrook, & Ibaka total $49M alone. If they'd wanted 4 big money contracts, they would have kept the bearded one.

Rockets
And speaking of the bearded one, Harden and Howard will make a total of $38M in 2015/2016. It's hard to say what Houston will do to their roster between now and then, but it seems likely that they'll use Asik and/or Lin to make a deal to bring in another star either this year or next summer. I don't see them having any cap space for LMA unless they whiff between now and then.

Warriors
Lee, Iguodals, and Curry are slated to make a total of $38M, with Speights, Barnes and Thompson likely to take up too much of the remaining space for any offer for LMA. Besides, LMA and Lee play the same position.

Clippers
Paul, Griffin & Redick are on the books for $47M. Not happening unless they want to work a trade involving Griffin.

Grizzlies
ZBo could opt out next summer, but I would think he'd stick with Memphis. Gasol expires the same year as Aldridge. If the Grizzlies re-sign those two guys, which seems likely, they won't have the space to make a play for LMA, plus Zach plays the same spot.

Mavericks*
Dirk's contract is up next summer. He's already said he'll take a paycut to make money available to bring in another star next summer so it looks like the rebuild will take place then. It doesn't seem likely that they'd have the space available in 2015 to make a play for LMA.

Spurs*
Duncan and Parker's contracts run out after the 2014/2015 season. Duncan and Ginobili are likely to retire. It looks like a time for a total rebuild. I wonder if Pops will stick around for it. Yes, it's in Texas, but does LMA want to go to another rebuild situation. I like Portland's chances of retaining him over the Spurs attracting him.

Lakers*
The Lakers have to spend their money next summer. I don't know if they'll be contenders after that, but unless Kobe will take considerably less than he's currently making, and he's already said he won't, there won't be any money on the table by 2015.

Did I leave any likely options out? I guess I'm just not seeing that there's a likely spot for LMA to make a break to in 2015.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

It's an interesting analysis. But after watching GS get Iggy, NO get Tyreke, Houston get Dwight . . . I believe teams without salary cap room could make a play for Aldridge. Not only are teams willing to pay top dollar (even "overpay"), teams manage to be able to create salary cap room with some wheeling and dealing. I see LA going to a contender or a Texas team.

Irony is if we take another player with "good value" from a team to give them cap space to make a max offer to LA.

 

[e_blazer]

It's an interesting analysis. But after watching GS get Iggy, NO get Tyreke, Houston get Dwight . . . I believe teams without salary cap room could make a play for Aldridge. Not only are teams willing to pay top dollar (even "overpay"), teams manage to be able to create salary cap room with some wheeling and dealing. I see LA going to a contender or a Texas team.

Irony is if we take another player with "good value" from a team to give them cap space to make a max offer to LA.

Oh, I agree teams can juggle to make space, but it's easier when it's a $10-$12M contract you're trying to make room for than for a max contract. Houston had the advantage of having nearly enough space for Dwight before off-loading Robinson to the Blazers. Not many, if any, teams that are really contenders will be in that position for LMA.

 

[BlazerWookee]

He'll stay, because we'll be contenders and he'll get a max extension.

 

[HomerLovesKoolAid]

^That hairy dude is right^

 

[magnifier661]

He'll stay, because we'll be contenders and he'll get a max extension.

That's our card. We will be the only team to give him serious money. Also, we aren't that bad and could be in a really good place by that time.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

I like the school of thought that LA will stay. But unless the Blazers make "the big trade", I don't see LA being happy with the present roster. Lillard and a bunch of medicore NBA players isn't going to cut it.

 

[dviss1]

That's our card. We will be the only team to give him serious money. Also, we aren't that bad and could be in a really good place by that time.

To play Devil's Advocate, the TX teams have no income tax....

 

[dviss1]

I like the school of thought that LA will stay. But unless the Blazers make "the big trade", I don't see LA being happy with the present roster. Lillard and a bunch of medicore NBA players isn't going to cut it.

Batum is the X Factor. There are lots of Batum haters in here but there is no doubt he was earning his check until he hurt his wrist. He is still only 25 and some of you seem to think he has shown us his peak. I think not. He has done nothing but get better and better every year and who's to say he cannot become a 20+ per game scorer? Haters that's who.

You don't hit your prime until 27-29 right? Well Batum has 2 more years of development before we can say "he is what he is." We already have our big 3 IMHO.

 

[B-Roy]

Batum is the X Factor. There are lots of Batum haters in here but there is no doubt he was earning his check until he hurt his wrist. He is still only 25 and some of you seem to think he has shown us his peak. I think not. He has done nothing but get better and better every year and who's to say he cannot become a 20+ per game scorer? Haters that's who.

You don't hit your prime until 27-29 right? Well Batum has 2 more years of development before we can say "he is what he is." We already have our big 3 IMHO.

We weren't a good team even when Batum was healthy.

The only thing this team has going for it is Lillard. If Lillard becomes a star, shit gets real. Otherwise, they're going to be plodding around for the near future.

 

[dviss1]

We weren't a good team even when Batum was healthy.

The only thing this team has going for it is Lillard. If Lillard becomes a star, shit gets real. Otherwise, they're going to be plodding around for the near future.

IMO it's a given (barring any physical setback) that Lillard becomes a Superstar in this league.
That being said, there is easily space in the offense for Batum to up his scoring. I believe he has the ability to do it too.

 

[Draco]

To play Devil's Advocate, the TX teams have no income tax....

Yes it is a small advantage as they play half their games in Texas. So it would probably save him about $4 million but then again Blazer can offer an extra $30 million.

 

[Draco]

We weren't a good team even when Batum was healthy.

Well we were on pace for 47 wins before Batum got hurt. Add a bench and improvement from younger players and we have chance.

 

[jlprk]

^That hairy dude is right^

I thought he is hairless...?

 

[dviss1]

Yes it is a small advantage as they play half their games in Texas. So it would probably save him about $4 million but then again Blazer can offer an extra $30 million.

Well Damn.. I guess money talks and bullshit walks. I'm still of the mind that we can keep and extend him.

Again people, what if Batum keeps getting better (as he always has) and becomes that 20ppg guy we need him to be? His progression is the X Factor.

 

[PapaG]

It's an interesting analysis. But after watching GS get Iggy, NO get Tyreke, Houston get Dwight . . . I believe teams without salary cap room could make a play for Aldridge. Not only are teams willing to pay top dollar (even "overpay"), teams manage to be able to create salary cap room with some wheeling and dealing. I see LA going to a contender or a Texas team.

Irony is if we take another player with "good value" from a team to give them cap space to make a max offer to LA.

GS 6th seed. Houston 8th seed. NO out of the playoffs.

If LMA wants to play for a title contender, then one of the contenders needs to give up some value to the Blazers in order to swing a deal. The new CBA severely limits the options of large markets, especially via sign-and-trade, which if you're over the cap, isn't an option.

 

[PapaG]

We weren't a good team even when Batum was healthy.

The only thing this team has going for it is Lillard. If Lillard becomes a star, shit gets real. Otherwise, they're going to be plodding around for the near future.

A borderline playoff team with a rookie PG. If Lillard is for real, then trading LMA and Batum is a bad idea. The quickest way to for this team being competitive is to build with the players they have now, hope they develop, and trade LMA only for an upgrade or equal value.

 

[PapaG]

To play Devil's Advocate, the TX teams have no income tax....

That's definitely something to consider, but that only matters for 41 games, since most states tax income for professional athletes/performers when they 'play' in that state.

The difference between what Portland can offer and what the tax savings are favor Portland. I do get what you're saying, though. I'm just wondering which Texas team will be competitive in two years. The Mavs are going to have to go the "Heat" route, but I don't see a LeBron James to lead them. The Spurs at some point are going to have to rebuild. The Rockets are done with cap space for the foreseeable future.

 

[dviss1]

That's definitely something to consider, but that only matters for 41 games, since most states tax income for professional athletes/performers when they 'play' in that state.

The difference between what Portland can offer and what the tax savings are favor Portland. I do get what you're saying, though. I'm just wondering which Texas team will be competitive in two years. The Mavs are going to have to go the "Heat" route, but I don't see a LeBron James to lead them. The Spurs at some point are going to have to rebuild. The Rockets are done with cap space for the foreseeable future.

Being able to offer a full 30MM more is a luxury for us. Which is why I've always been in the keep LMA camp.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

Do we think POR would even want to offer the extra 30 MIL though? LMA isn't a Max player. A very good player for sure. Not a Max player though.

 

[Draco]

Do we think POR would even want to offer the extra 30 MIL though? LMA isn't a Max player. A very good player for sure. Not a Max player though.

So who are the max PF's in the game today?

 

[KeepOnRollin]

So who are the max PF's in the game today?

Not sure if you mean literally or figuratively. There has to be at least one in the NBA at all times? (I would disagree with that if so) Or LMA should be the first? (once again disagree, very good player. Not a MAX one imo) Or am I missing the entire question?

I am not sure who currently makes Max at PF but the only one that should be making Max right now is Duncan (yes still, had arguably one of this top-5 seasons just this last year). Ironically I think he took a lot less then Max so the Spurs could keep their other players.

 

[Draco]

Not sure if you mean literally or figuratively. There has to be at least one in the NBA at all times? (I would disagree with that if so) Or LMA should be the first? (once again disagree, very good player. Not a MAX one imo) Or am I missing the entire question?

I am not sure who currently makes Max at PF but the only one that should be making Max right now is Duncan (yes still, had arguably one of this top-5 seasons just this last year). Ironically I think he took a lot less then Max so the Spurs could keep their other players.

Any all-star or near all-star is going to get a near max level contract. If you don't want to pay that some other team will. There are only 24 all-stars and 30 teams so thats just the simple math of it. If you don't believe Aldridge will still be a borderline all-star when he is older at the end of the contract that is a different argument; it would be a valid reason to not give him such a contract. I agree in theory it seems like theses players outside Lebron and Durant are overpaid but if you don't sign them what will you be able to do with that cap room? Sign a lesser player like Al Jefferson and have a few million less on the cap? That won't lead to more wins.

To contend you need to have a few players like Damian Lillard where their play greatly exceeds their contract. It could be a few rookies or just vets that are somewhat underpaid. Then you can pay the market rate for an all-star and still have a great team. Obviously it would be even better to acquire more players like Lillard who play at a level far above their contract, but those aren't available. So the next best alternative is to pay market rate for the best player you can get on the team.

 

[Boise Blazer]

So assuming LMA stays, what do you think would be better? Batum become a solid 20 ppg scorer (say not quite all star) and Dame stays where he was this year? Or Dame jumps to superstar and Batum stays? Interesting question.

 

[Mediocre Man]

So assuming LMA stays, what do you think would be better? Batum become a solid 20 ppg scorer (say not quite all star) and Dame stays where he was this year? Or Dame jumps to superstar and Batum stays? Interesting question.

Dame making the jump is the most important thing

 

[e_blazer]

Probably the very best scenario for the Blazers is getting two very good years out of Aldridge as he plays for his max contract and, in the mean time, Robinson blows up to become a beast PF, making re-signing LMA unnecessary and allowing them to work a sign-and-trade for other needed assets.

I mean, a guy can always dream, right?

 

[magnifier661]

So assuming LMA stays, what do you think would be better? Batum become a solid 20 ppg scorer (say not quite all star) and Dame stays where he was this year? Or Dame jumps to superstar and Batum stays? Interesting question.

Dame needs to get to superstar level. That is the number 1 most important thing for our success. Think about it. Howard didn't want to go to Houston because they had no superstar. Harden came in and became a superstar and now they got Howard.

Aldridge is an allstar; but is still robin. We need batman.

I would be more happy if batum just turned into a dead eye three point shooter, defensive stopper and key facilitator.