So why did we suck last year?

[KSF-ERIC]

Dame & CJ were healthy all year long and yet we finished the season 4 games below .500, even with the late return of Collins and Nurk. Is Whiteside THAT bad? Will someone explain it to me? I get that we lost Hood and Collins early on and they were replacements for Aminu and Harkless and now we have DJJ and RoCo, but still.... We were 14-21 last year at this point.

 

[BonesJones]

Dame & CJ were healthy all year long and yet we finished the season 4 games below .500, even with the late return of Collins and Nurk. Is Whiteside THAT bad? Will someone explain it to me? I get that we lost Hood and Collins early on and they were replacements for Aminu and Harkless and now we have DJJ and RoCo, but still.... We were 14-21 last year at this point.

Much harder early season schedule and Dame not being as heroic early on last year as he has been this year. Plus, this years team is much deeper. There's the difference.

 

[AldoTrapani]

I think our bench is much better this year

 

[mook]

Tolliver, Bazemor and Hezonja played 2500 minutes last year, or collectively about the same amount of minutes as Dame or CJ. They were extremely terrible.

The majority of those minutes came in the first half of the season, before we got Melo.

Also, Gary Trent hadn't really emerged until the bubble.

Also, Whiteside was not nearly as good as Kanter.

Also, before CJ got injured this season he was putting up franchise-level numbers.

 

[kjironman1]

It's actually an interesting question. Up until Melo became part of the team (Pelicans game) they were 5-9 through 14 games. They lost the first 3 with him, but after that the team started to play different. They go 9-5 the next 14 but that still was with losses to the Clippers, Lakers, Thunder and Nuggets. They cleaned up on teams like the King, Knicks, the Bulls twice, Warriors who weren't good, Magic, T-Wolves.
Between games 31-40 they lost 8 of 10. So at the 40 game mark they were 16-24 with three brutal road trips the first road trip was 6 out of 7 with a one game turnaround home game in the middle. Then they have the 6 game road trip in the middle and end that with a 5 game trip.
First 40 games of the season were tough no question. Losing Colllins, Hood, and not having Harless and Aminu trying to replace that with Melo and Mario/Toliver/Bazemore.
Hood went down on game 23 vs the Lakers. The Blazers did win a few after that but decent teams picked them apart for the next 3 months.

Yes. I did use the internet to figure some of that out and check my information. Apparently that isn't the way you are supposed to do it around here. Any information that might be incorrect i will concede now.
No LIES here.
I will also post my disclaimer here. I am making no formal statement on who is responsible for said play (Wins/Losses), Player injuries, or Schedules.

 

[wizenheimer]

I think that last year's team was built, heavily, to rely on the contributions of Zach and Simons at PG. Zach went down and the only guys available to replace him were Tolliver and Hezonja. And it's abundantly clear Simons is not a PG. CJ isn't either but at least he can create his own offense, most of the time. And, when Hood tore his Achilles, Portland had to rely on Bazemore and Hezonja at SF

I also think, as flawed as he is, that Kanter fits the Stotts system a lot better than Whiteside did. You could probably make the same argument in favor of Turner over Bazemore

Olshey did a piss-poor job of roster construction in 2019. He did a better job of constructing this team and developing cushions in case of injuries

 

[Shaboid]

You didn't dream hard enough, Eric.

 

[B-Roy]

Our record this year is also not befitting of our point differential. We have the point differential of a 17-18 team, but we are basically winning every clutch game because of Dame.

 

[AldoTrapani]

Our record this year is also not befitting of our point differential. We have the point differential of a 17-18 team, but we are basically winning every clutch game because of Dame.

Exactly this. This will usually be a good indicator for playoff success which we won’t have much of. Once again

 

[kjironman1]

Our record this year is also not befitting of our point differential. We have the point differential of a 17-18 team, but we are basically winning every clutch game because of Dame.

I see your point for sure. Dame has been awesome no question. But there have been a number of games where other players came up huge this year that Dame would not have been in the position to win the game.
To me it's a team sport. Dame wins those games because of those players not in spite of them.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Shitty defense and too much hero ball.
Stop making fucking excuses

 

[B-Roy]

I see your point for sure. Dame has been awesome no question. But there have been a number of games where other players came up huge this year that Dame would not have been in the position to win the game.
To me it's a team sport. Dame wins those games because of those players not in spite of them.

Nothing about that is wrong. But I remember us losing a ton of close games early last year and this year we are winning them. Of course Dame in general is very clutch, but historically these games are mostly coinflips, and we've been on the good side this year.

 

[Strenuus]

Exactly this. This will usually be a good indicator for playoff success which we won’t have much of. Once again

I bag on you a lot... but the playoff success (or lack there of) will rear it's ugly head. It's like a friend's with benefits... in the moment it's fun as hell but the moment it becomes serious it's over.

 

[Chris Craig]

Dame & CJ were healthy all year long and yet we finished the season 4 games below .500, even with the late return of Collins and Nurk. Is Whiteside THAT bad? Will someone explain it to me? I get that we lost Hood and Collins early on and they were replacements for Aminu and Harkless and now we have DJJ and RoCo, but still.... We were 14-21 last year at this point.

1.) Dame

Dame has willed us to several wins this season with CJ and Nurkic out.

2.) CJ McCollum

McCollum was having his best season thus far before his injury.

3.) Bench

Last seasons bench:

Jaylen Adams
Mario Hezonja
Anthony Tolliver
Caleb Swanigan
Jaylen Hoard
Wenyen Gabriel
Skal Labissiere
Nassir Little
Anfernee Simons
Gary Trent

This seasons bench:

Gary Trent Jr - Improved
Anfernee Simons - Improved
Carmelo Anthony
Nassir Little - Improved
Enes Kanter
Harry Giles
Rodney Hood
CJ Elleby
Keljin Blevins - 2way

4.) Injury

Ok so the Blazers have suffered more injuries this season.

Collins and Hood went down early in the season which hurt the Blazers because the bench was not as worthy to make up for it and Lillard wasn't able to will as many wins.

5.) Schedule toughness variance

The Blazers had a far tougher first half of the season last year.

6.) Chemistry/experience

The team has far better chemistry this season and more experience

7.) Whiteside vs Kanter

If you look at the stats of both Whiteside and Kanter and how they both affected the game and their team...Kanter stats and the way he gets them, make the Blazers better. Whiteside didn't really help the Blazers. His stats were empty.

 

[wizenheimer]

But I remember us losing a ton of close games early last year and this year we are winning them. Of course Dame in general is very clutch, but historically these games are mostly coinflips, and we've been on the good side this year.

yep

I don't know where it is but I did a post here looking at close games for the Blazers this year. IIRC, in 2-score games, those decided by 6 points or less, AFTER CJ and Nurkic got injured, Portland's record is 8-3. And in games decided by one score, 3 points or less, the Blazers are 6-1. That's pretty phenomenal, considering Portland's circumstances and their average point differential. For comparison, Utah is 3-5 in close games and the Lakers are 5-5.

just think about 3 close wins: the Chicago game when Dame scored 8 points in the last 50 seconds including two 3's in the last 8 seconds. And the last two games before the break against Golden State and Sacramento when Dame went ballistic in the last 5 minutes in each game. Make Dame mortal in just those 3 games and Portland is 18-17 right now in 10th place in the West

 

[HolyBackboard]

Neil really had a terrible offseason:

- Three offseason signings all flopped; Gasol, Hezonja, and Tolliver are out of the league in 2021
- Let Aminu walk without finding a defensive replacement; banking on Zach Collins as the only real 4 on the team was incredibly shortsighted
- Moving Harkless' defense and Leonard for Whiteside didn't work out in our favor (although I loved the trade at the time)
- Due to the luxury tax, we had to let so many key contributors leave from the WCF team; Neil's summer of 16 came back to bite him in the ass

Not Neil's fault:
- Hindsight is 20/20, but getting Enes to sign with the taxpayers MLE over Hood would have allowed Portland to keep Harkless (or use his and Leonard's contracts in other non-Whiteside deals) and Trent Jr. would have ultimately filled in for Hood (which he did after December anyway).
- Hood and Collins' long-term injuries

 

[julius]

1.) Dame

Dame has willed us to several wins this season with CJ and Nurkic out.

2.) CJ McCollum

McCollum was having his best season thus far before his injury.

3.) Bench

Last seasons bench:

Jaylen Adams
Mario Hezonja
Anthony Tolliver
Caleb Swanigan
Jaylen Hoard
Wenyen Gabriel
Skal Labissiere
Nassir Little
Anfernee Simons
Gary Trent

This seasons bench:

Gary Trent Jr - Improved
Anfernee Simons
Carmelo Anthony
Nassir Little - Improved
Enes Kanter
Harry Giles
Rodney Hood
CJ Elleby
Keljin Blevins - 2way

4.) Injury

Ok so the Blazers have suffered more injuries this season.

Collins and Hood went down early in the season which hurt the Blazers because the bench was not as worthy to make up for it and Lillard wasn't able to will as many wins.

5.) Schedule toughness variance

The Blazers had a far tougher first half of the season last year.

6.) Chemistry/experience

The team has far better chemistry this season and more experience

I'd say Simons has improved too, even if his #'s don't necessarily show it.

 

[kjironman1]

Nothing about that is wrong. But I remember us losing a ton of close games early last year and this year we are winning them. Of course Dame in general is very clutch, but historically these games are mostly coinflips, and we've been on the good side this year.

Yeah they did. Lost a number of close games they are winning this year for sure. Maybe it's my emotional take and i have no numbers to back it up but i always think a better team finds a way to win if it's close. I feel this year the team is much better even with the injuries they have.

 

[wizenheimer]

just to check, I went back and looked at Portland close game record (5 points or less) in 2018/19; the year Portland posted their best record in the Dame CJ era. The Blazers were 11-10 in close games that year, reinforcing the idea that close games tend to be in the realm of coin flips. 1 make or miss, one rebound or one turnover...single plays decide those games most times. Portland is leading a charmed life, so far, this season

 

[hoopsjock]

Neil really had a terrible offseason:

- Three offseason signings all flopped; Gasol, Hezonja, and Tolliver are out of the league in 2021
- Let Aminu walk without finding a defensive replacement; banking on Zach Collins as the only real 4 on the team was incredibly shortsighted
- Moving Harkless' defense and Leonard for Whiteside didn't work out in our favor (although I loved the trade at the time)
- Due to the luxury tax, we had to let so many key contributors leave from the WCF team; Neil's summer of 16 came back to bite him in the ass

Not Neil's fault:
- Hindsight is 20/20, but getting Enes to sign with the taxpayers MLE over Hood would have allowed Portland to keep Harkless (or use his and Leonard's contracts in other non-Whiteside deals) and Trent Jr. would have ultimately filled in for Hood (which he did after December anyway).
- Hood and Collins' long-term injuries

After the Ariza trade (who played really well for us) the Blazers went 10-11 in the 21 games he played. So adding a defensive replacement for Aminu didn't really matter either.

 

[B-Roy]

After the Ariza trade (who played really well for us) the Blazers went 10-11 in the 21 games he played. So adding a defensive replacement for Aminu didn't really matter either.

Yeah, because one or two good defensive players cannot salvage a defense where everyone else in the rotation is a negative. We're seeing that again this year. Even if the Blazers had Gobert instead of Whiteside last year I don't really think we would have been that much better.

 

[hoopsjock]

Even in the bubble the Blazers didn't play very well as a team despite going 6-2 and were a Caris Levert jumper away from not even making the play-in game.

The coaching has been awful the last two seasons. The difference between last season and this season is the roster is deeper to make the injuries less significant but make no mistake the coaching is not doing this roster any favors either.

 

[hoopsjock]

Yeah, because one or two good defensive players cannot salvage a defense where everyone else in the rotation is a negative. We're seeing that again this year. Even if the Blazers had Gobert instead of Whiteside last year I don't really think we would have been that much better.

I would maybe buy that excuse if at least half our losses weren't to teams that had much less talent than us, even with the injuries.

 

[B-Roy]

Also, a stat that is sobering this year is looking at our losses to "good" teams.

Utah -20
Clippers -23
Milwaukee -28
Phoenix -32
SAS -21
Indiana -23

Getting destroyed by the teams you are going to face in the playoffs is not a good sign. Of course some of these games are without CJ/Nurk. You have to be ecstatic that our record gives us some breathing room considering the injuries, but they better hope to put together some good performances when CJ/Nurk are actually back. The hope is that we are playing good basketball by the time the playoffs arrive.

 

[B-Roy]

I would maybe buy that excuse if at least half our losses weren't to teams that had much less talent than us, even with the injuries.

Are you talking about last year? I'd argue our talent post Hood/Collins injury was about on-par with those bad teams. Dame was the one positive player. Everyone else was a negative, including CJ and on most nights, Whiteside. They had Melo playing 32 minutes a night for crying out loud. Mario and Simons were playing big minutes, Tolliver even. Good lord. Single superstars definitely have more impact in basketball as they do other sports, but there's a limit to what one player can do, especially when that one player also plays just one side of the court.

 

[Chris Craig]

I'd say Simons has improved too, even if his #'s don't necessarily show it.

He has improved

 

[AldoTrapani]

I bag on you a lot... but the playoff success (or lack there of) will rear it's ugly head. It's like a friend's with benefits... in the moment it's fun as hell but the moment it becomes serious it's over.

Wow the most realest post you’ve ever wrote. You might have that homer label off soon lol

 

[Strenuus]

Wow the most realest post you’ve ever wrote. You might have that homer label off soon lol

Lol I am no where near a Homer around these parts. I'd be leaning more to pessimist than anything. But I will call bs on either side lol.

 

[jlprk]

I'd say Simons has improved too, even if his #'s don't necessarily show it.

It's his dribbling.

He's still not great dribbler like Lillard and McCollum, but being around them has improved his dribbling. That's the first step toward becoming a creator, which Stotts' lousy system requires to be a scorer.

 

[KSF-ERIC]

Also, a stat that is sobering this year is looking at our losses to "good" teams.

Utah -20
Clippers -23
Milwaukee -28
Phoenix -32
SAS -21
Indiana -23

Getting destroyed by the teams you are going to face in the playoffs is not a good sign. Of course some of these games are without CJ/Nurk. You have to be ecstatic that our record gives us some breathing room considering the injuries, but they better hope to put together some good performances when CJ/Nurk are actually back. The hope is that we are playing good basketball by the time the playoffs arrive.

LOL. We are not going to face Indiana (who may not even make the playoffs) or San Antonio in the playoffs. That said, we have beaten the Lakers, Sixers twice (including a blowout) and Dallas and Toronto both of whom are better than their record. Warriors have a better record than Indiana and we have beaten them twice including a blowout. We also beat a Rockets team with an A+ Harden performance and a healthy Wood. You’re not telling the whole story. And regular season means nothing when discussing matchups in playoffs. OKC swept us 4-0 in 2018-19 but we beat them 4-1 in playoffs.