Sorta OT: Why does this always happen?

[Kaydow]

"Psycho T" Tyler Hansbrough was drafted #13 in 2009. Collegiate Player of the year in 2008, 3 time All American, just a phenominal/elite player. Yet barely a lottery pick, with guys like Terrance Williams, DeMar DeRozan, Jordan Hill, and co. taken before him. Everybody knows he got his nickname because he's tenacious, intense, & his work ethic is off the chats. And he's an outstanding character guy too.

He missed most of last year with injuries, and started off this season not getting to play very much until about January. Anybody see what he's been doing lately? Averaging 20/7 in March. 30 Points last night, 29 the game before. 5 straight games of 20+ points. Check out the dunk he had on Amare last night below. Why do these guys get overlooked? I read scouting reports back when he was drafted. He's undersized for a PF, limited athletic ability, relies on energy too much to sustain for 82 games . . . when a guy is that dominant in college against the highest level of competition for 4 years, shouldn't that tell you something?

On a smaller scale, Wesley Matthews wasn't even drafted. He wasn't close to an All American, but a really good college player who stayed all 4 years. But he doesn't have a great vertical, and he's never going to be a guy who can create his own shot. Question is, why do teams draft the high risk/high reward guys over a proven entity? Who cares if a guy doesn't has a more limited "ceiling" if he's already solid?

 

[3RA1N1AC]

people draft high risk/reward guys because they want a superstar, which are much harder to nab than role player types, fairly simple idea, but alot of teams strike out with these "upside guys" and would have been better served with a "steady" player

 

[mook]

You can pick up solid energy players as free agents throughout the year. That's how we got Matthews. Matthews is better than most, and we got him at a bargain, but he proves the point.

Teams know the best shot they have at picking a franchise or at least very high caliber player is in the draft. Even with a low draft pick, there's a lot of temptation to look for the next Tony Parker.

If I were a GM, I'd rather roll the dice on Kwame Brown than Mike Dunleavy. Nobody remembers who drafted either guy, but if Kwame had panned out you can be damned sure people would remember that.

 

[Run BJM]

Great college players are far from a sure thing in the NBA. The NBA requires a certain level of athleticism and size that the college game does not. Hansbrough is a nice NBA player but his potential is limited. He'll never be much of a factor on defense because he's 6'9ish and not a presence in the paint. The guys you listed who were taken above him had much higher potential to become star players or higher impact players based on their athleticism. Its obviously a risk but IMO the college bball purists who claim that taking a junior/senior is always the better bet than gambling on a Fr. (or HS player/Euro/etc.) are wrong. Everything is a case by case basis when drafting but look at the Dwight vs. Okafor debate for that draft. Okafor turned out to be a solid player but Orlando took the gamble and came out smelling like a rose. As a Warrior fan I know of plenty of examples of taking college guys over HS ones- Todd Fuller with Kobe (and Jermaine O' Neal) still on the board, Joe Smith with KG on the board, Mike Dunleavy Jr. over Amare and Nene, Ike Diogu over Andrew Bynum.

There's plenty of big time busts as far as kids picked who never played in college or barely played in college. But I don't buy that drafting Jrs/Srs. has a higher success rate and in many instances even if they do pan out you know their ceiling is limited. You've got to evaluate every player individually. But IMO if you're a really crappy team with no stars why spend a top 5 pick on a guy who "safe pick" who is unlikely to become anything better than a good role player at best? How much different would the NBA look if the Magic played it safe and took Okafor and Charlotte took Dwight? My Warriors did get lucky because Steph Curry was overlooked because he was a 4 year player with limited athleticism and was picked after Thabeet, Tyreke, Rubio, Flynn, James Harden. But just the year prior you had Derrick Rose #1 overall and Russell Westbrook was a bit of a shocker at the #5 overall pick being a tweener combo guard with mixed success as a PG at UCLA and now they're two of the best PGs in the league. The upper classmen in that same lottery: Joe Alexander, DJ Augustin (was he a So or Jr?), Brook Lopez (I think he was a So. but he was an all-american type college player), Jason Thompson, Brandon Rush.

IMO for every Duncan, Nash, Steph Curry, Brandon Roy, etc. who stays in college there's also a KG, Kobe, Derrick Rose, Durant, etc. I think perhaps the number of overhyped prospects who haven't proven anything probably outnumber the proven college players but the college bball purists easily forget the Adam Morrisons, Shelden Williams, Joe Alexanders, Childress, Luke Jacksons, Corey Brewers, Robert Tractor Trailers, etc.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Didn't Juan Dixon and Steve Blake win an NCAA championship together?

 

[ebott]

Didn't Juan Dixon and Steve Blake win an NCAA championship together?

Chris Wilcox was on that team as well.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Tyler and Kris Humphries are exactly the type of garbage men this team needs off the bench.

I am surprised with his scoring though. He's been beasting the past few weeks.