State of the Team (by the stats)

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There has been some exaggeration going on in the media and on these boards, so here are the plain facts.

We are not last in SOS.
We ARE below .500, but above average in the more telling +/- category.
I heard that we have the hardest SOS in the NBA post all-star break. I didn't fact check so I'm not sure if it's accurate or not.
 
I guess one way of looking at it is to ask yourself, given the SOS before and after the all star break is it realistic to think that we could go .500 in our remaining games? Is .500 a worst case scenario? If so that puts us at about 40-41 wins. What does that mean to you and is it enough to make the playoffs or even have a chance to maybe upset a first round opponent?
 
I guess one way of looking at it is to ask yourself, given the SOS before and after the all star break is it realistic to think that we could go .500 in our remaining games? Is .500 a worst case scenario? If so that puts us at about 40-41 wins. What does that mean to you and is it enough to make the playoffs or even have a chance to maybe upset a first round opponent?

IDK, but we have just beaten 2 above .500 teams on the road (Houston and Memphis), so there is definite improvement.
 
The Spurs are dead last in SOS - I don't think Pop is quaking in his boots :)

They will have the easiest or second easiest SOS by the end of the year too.

The Spurs don't have to play the Spurs, and the Warriors don't have to play the Warriors. Unfortunately for the Lakers they don't get to beat up on the Lakers.
 
I guess one way of looking at it is to ask yourself, given the SOS before and after the all star break is it realistic to think that we could go .500 in our remaining games? Is .500 a worst case scenario? If so that puts us at about 40-41 wins. What does that mean to you and is it enough to make the playoffs or even have a chance to maybe upset a first round opponent?

Definitely have a chance; we're two thirds of the way through the season so even with a harder schedule much can happen in such a small number of games. There might be some teams that are strong now but we get lucky and they have a key injury; or the last few weeks some opponents might tank or some team might be locked into playoff spots and resting starters when we play them. Now could we struggle mighty, lose 8 games in a row and fall well out of the playoffs race as in Lillards rookie year? Sure. There are a lot of plausible possibilities. That could make an exciting end of the season.
 
All-Star Break

Current Record: 27-27 (7th in West (tie), 1.5 games behind 6th)
+/-: +0.6 (6th in West)
ORtG: 107.2 (7th in NBA)
DRtG: 106.6 (18th in NBA)
SOS: -.39 (22nd in NBA)

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016.html
http://espn.go.com/nba/standings/_/sort/differential

Current Record: 26-27 (9th in West, 0.5 games behind 8th, 1.0 games behind 7th)
+/-: +0.3 (6th in West)
ORtG: 107.7 (Tie for 7th in NBA)
DRtG: 106.7 (18th in NBA)
SOS: -.41 (23rd in NBA)

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016.html
http://espn.go.com/nba/standings/_/sort/differential
 
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Second half of the season has other features that may offset strength of schedule. Teams get dinged up, rest guys for the playoffs, have lost heart, have guys who know they're leaving (cut, via FA), etc.

Our depth is a big key to our continued success.

IMO
 
Second half of the season has other features that may offset strength of schedule. Teams get dinged up, rest guys for the playoffs, have lost heart, have guys who know they're leaving (cut, via FA), etc.

Our depth is a big key to our continued success.

IMO

Agreed. I thought we'd win 32 games but could easily be 10 over or under that prior to the season. I thought we would get out to a hot start since our young players were in midseason shape and trying to prove themselves. I also expected us to finish strong with a lot of wins the second half of the year just as the Jazz and Celtics did last year. We have good depth and other teams will either be coasting, banged up, flat out tanking, sitting vets for the playoffs, integrating trade pieces; meanwhile we are giving it 100% with the same level of play. Knock on wood we have no current injuries when many teams have multiple season ending ones.

Being .500 already is the very high end of my prediction, but I agree the upcoming strength of schedule and back to backs aren't the doomsday scenario it could be for some rosters. CJ and Dame are the only guys who play over 30 mpg. Its very different than the roster 3 years ago that was .500 in the same spot but finished that year losing 13 straight. Back then we relied heavily on 5 starters and had historic zero production from the bench. A couple small injuries, normal season fatigue and the house of cards collapsed that year. I can easily see us finish this year .500 or a bit better. Of course nothing is certain but it should be an entertaining finish and I'm thrilled to be in the playoff picture.

Go Blazers!
 
It says our win-loss record is 39-43.

Interesting; 8 teams have better playoff odds, we are projected to finish 4 games under .500, and we more likely than not make the playoffs.

These projections usually ignore injuries or trades; so with the Grizz and Rockets both having some of each we should boost our odds a bit.
 
Interesting; 8 teams have better playoff odds, we are projected to finish 4 games under .500, and we more likely than not make the playoffs.

These projections usually ignore injuries or trades; so with the Grizz and Rockets both having some of each we should boost our odds a bit.
They hating. Flip it and were good.
 
Blazers Blow Out the (previously) 48-4 Warriors by 32

Current Record: 28-27 (7th in West, 0.5 games behind 6th)
+/-: +1.1 (6th in West)
ORtG: 107.6 (7th in NBA)
DRtG: 106.4 (18th in NBA)
SOS: -.20 (22nd in NBA)

Streak(s):
4-0 in last 4, longest in west, longest in nba (tie)
9-1 in last 10
13-3 in last 16

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016.html
http://espn.go.com/nba/standings/_/sort/differential

All-Star Break

Current Record: 27-27 (7th in West (tie), 1.5 games behind 6th)
+/-: +0.6 (6th in West)
ORtG: 107.2 (7th in NBA)
DRtG: 106.6 (18th in NBA)
SOS: -.39 (22nd in NBA)

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016.html
http://espn.go.com/nba/standings/_/sort/differential
 
Blazers Blow Out the (previously) 48-4 Warriors by 32

Current Record: 28-27 (7th in West, 0.5 games behind 6th)
+/-: +1.1 (6th in West)
ORtG: 107.6 (7th in NBA)
DRtG: 106.4 (18th in NBA)
SOS: -.20 (22nd in NBA)

Streak(s):
4-0 in last 4, longest in west, longest in nba (tie)
9-1 in last 10
13-3 in last 16

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016.html
http://espn.go.com/nba/standings/_/sort/differential

After Gritty win against Utah...

Current Record: 29-27 (7th in West, 0.5 games behind 6th)
+/-: +1.1 (6th in West)
ORtG: 107.9 (7th in NBA)
DRtG: 106.6 (18th in NBA)
SOS: -.20 (23rd in NBA)

Streak(s):
5-0 in last 5, longest in west, longest in nba (tie)
9-1 in last 10
14-3 in last 17

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016.html
http://espn.go.com/nba/standings/_/sort/differential
 
After Gritty win against Utah...

Current Record: 29-27 (7th in West, 0.5 games behind 6th)
+/-: +1.1 (6th in West)
ORtG: 107.9 (7th in NBA)
DRtG: 106.6 (18th in NBA)
SOS: -.20 (23rd in NBA)

Streak(s):
5-0 in last 5, longest in west, longest in nba (tie)
9-1 in last 10
14-3 in last 17

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016.html
http://espn.go.com/nba/standings/_/sort/differential

After win against Brooklyn...

Current Record: 30-27 (Tied for 6th in West, 3 games behind 5th)
+/-: +1.3 (Tied for 5th in West)
ORtG: 108.0 (7th in NBA)
DRtG: 106.6 (18th in NBA)
SOS: -.31 (23rd in NBA)

Streak(s):
6-0 in last 6, longest streak in nba
10-1 in last 11
15-3 in last 18

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016.html
http://espn.go.com/nba/standings/_/sort/differential
 
Here's a little link for people (*cough* Talking Ball morons *cough*) who want to trade CJ:

http://bkref.com/tiny/WAoQS

CJ is playing like a maniac out there, and he should be our maniac forever.

(btw, I was shocked to find that 2007-08 Steve Nash, at 33, shot about as well as Curry is now -- I was sure Curry's numbers were unique in the league)
 
Here's a little link for people (*cough* Talking Ball morons *cough*) who want to trade CJ:

http://bkref.com/tiny/WAoQS

CJ is playing like a maniac out there, and he should be our maniac forever.

(btw, I was shocked to find that 2007-08 Steve Nash, at 33, shot about as well as Curry is now -- I was sure Curry's numbers were unique in the league)

Unless we're getting Steph Curry, Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, or Paul George in return, trading C.J. would be foolish. Guys that can get you 20 points night in and night out are rare in this league. There are currently 21 players in the entire NBA averaging => 20ppg (not counting Griffin and Bledsoe who don't qualify). We have two and the two we have are among the youngest.

Dame is currently 5th in scoring and C.J. is 15th. The only other teams in the league that are blessed with two 20ppg scores are GSW (50-5), OKC (40-16) and TOR (37-18). That's 3 of the top 5 teams in the league with a combined winning percentage of .765. Of course, there is more to winning than just having two 20ppg scorers, but it's a pretty good place to start.

Although C.J. was a 4-year college player and is now in his third NBA season, there is only one player in the entire NBA who is younger than C.J. that averages more ppg. That player is Anthony Davis.

So again, unless were getting Curry, Davis, Durant or George in return, I don't even listen to offers. I'm not claiming C.J. is a top five player in the league, but everyone else who scores more than him is either two old, too injury prone or too much of a head case. We know Dame and C.J. can play together and be successful (winning 15 of 18 have proven that). The grass isn't always greener on the other side of the fence. We are fortunate to have two young, unselfish, dynamic scorers who both want to be here and play well together. So, unless there is a no-brainer deal on the table, you don't take a chance on fucking up a good thing.

BNM
 
Unless we're getting Steph Curry, Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, or Paul George in return, trading C.J. would be foolish. Guys that can get you 20 points night in and night out are rare in this league. There are currently 21 players in the entire NBA averaging => 20ppg (not counting Griffin and Bledsoe who don't qualify). We have two and the two we have are among the youngest.

Dame is currently 5th in scoring and C.J. is 15th. The only other teams in the league that are blessed with two 20ppg scores are GSW (50-5), OKC (40-16) and TOR (37-18). That's 3 of the top 5 teams in the league with a combined winning percentage of .765. Of course, there is more to winning than just having two 20ppg scorers, but it's a pretty good place to start.

Although C.J. was a 4-year college player and is now in his third NBA season, there is only one player in the entire NBA who is younger than C.J. that averages more ppg. That player is Anthony Davis.

So again, unless were getting Curry, Davis, Durant or George in return, I don't even listen to offers. I'm not claiming C.J. is a top five player in the league, but everyone else who scores more than him is either two old, too injury prone or too much of a head case. We know Dame and C.J. can play together and be successful (winning 15 of 18 have proven that). The grass isn't always greener on the other side of the fence. We are fortunate to have two young, unselfish, dynamic scorers who both want to be here and play well together. So, unless there is a no-brainer deal on the table, you don't take a chance on fucking up a good thing.

BNM

Post of the week right there ... people need to take heed... the ones who think we need to trade CJ to get someone...better??
 
CJ's next step is to improve his ability to draw fouls. Despite shooting 45/40/80 on the season, his TS% is actually a pretty pedestrian 54% which is hovering around league average. Being able to drop 21 every night on league average efficiency is great don't get me wrong but if he could get a few more foul shots a game it's going to really cement his status as one of the premier offensive players in the league.
 
Here's a little link for people (*cough* Talking Ball morons *cough*) who want to trade CJ:

http://bkref.com/tiny/WAoQS

CJ is playing like a maniac out there, and he should be our maniac forever.

(btw, I was shocked to find that 2007-08 Steve Nash, at 33, shot about as well as Curry is now -- I was sure Curry's numbers were unique in the league)

Man, the only thing I got out of that is how insane Curry is. 68% true shooting percentage on 21 attempts per game. He's got a higher true shooting percentage than a big man that only dunks with the usage rate of a shot happy chucker.

GOD....DAMN.
 
CJ's next step is to improve his ability to draw fouls. Despite shooting 45/40/80 on the season, his TS% is actually a pretty pedestrian 54% which is hovering around league average. Being able to drop 21 every night on league average efficiency is great don't get me wrong but if he could get a few more foul shots a game it's going to really cement his status as one of the premier offensive players in the league.
@Dan Marang talked about that in his CJ podcast, specifically noting that in addition to his historically low free throw rate, CJ also has had a very low rate finishing at the rim. Over the last several games, however, CJ's rim finishing seems to have improved significantly, which could be the thing that takes him to the next level.
 
CJ's next step is to improve his ability to draw fouls. Despite shooting 45/40/80 on the season, his TS% is actually a pretty pedestrian 54% which is hovering around league average. Being able to drop 21 every night on league average efficiency is great don't get me wrong but if he could get a few more foul shots a game it's going to really cement his status as one of the premier offensive players in the league.

One reason I'd be very reluctant to trade C.J. is he has not yet reached his full potential. When I look at the list of current 20 ppg scorers, it's not just that he's the second youngest player on that list, it's that most of the players above him did not reach their peak until they were older, had more NBA experience, or both. Curry and Thompson are clearly the best backcourt in the NBA now, but in terms of age and experience, Dame and C.J. are at least equal, perhaps slightly ahead of where Curry and Thompson were at similar ages/levels of experience.

That's one reason, I did include Klay Thompson on my list of no-brainer trade options. Talent/production wise, the two are pretty close, with a slight advantage to Klay. But Klay is almost 2 years older than C.J. and did not become a 20 ppg scorer until his 4th season in the league. Klay shoots higher percentages and is a better defender, but C.J. is younger and a better ballhandler and distributor. So, I wouldn't risk destroying chemistry and narrowing our window by two years for what's pretty close to a lateral move.

Point being, C.J. still has areas he can improve, but he also has time to make those improvements. He's still a year, or two away from entering the beginning of the prime of his career.

BNM
 

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