Science Statistical Storylines in VSL 2018: Big Z and WB4ever

[Wizard Mentor]

Notes: Blazers are currently 5-0 in summer league. Zach Collins has missed 1 game.
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One of the big hopes I have for this upcoming year is improved shooting and an improved defense, especially the latter. In particular, I'm hoping that additional rotation minutes by Collins and Baldwin catapult our defense into the top 5.

Collins and Baldwin Dominate Defensively (Positional FG% Comparison)
Ideally, they would be dominating defensively in summer league, but are they? One way to check is to look at the shooting percentages of the opposing starting PGs (who Baldwin starts out guarding, presumably) and starting PFs (for Collins).

Opposing starting PGs shooting percentage: 9/39 = 23.1%
Opposing starting PFs shooting percentage (not counting SAS game which Collins missed): 16/43 = 37.2%

It's likely that SL shooting percentages are lower than regular season percentages, but this feels like domination to me. It's not a shock that we're 5-0.

The Collins Effect (on Team Defense)
In the one game Collins missed, SAS shot 47%. In the 4 games Collins has played in: opponents shoot about 36%. Zach is tied for 3rd in Blocks at 3.3 per.

Baldwin Can Do Anything He Wants To
In the first game of SL, Baldwin showed that he could score at will, finishing the game shooting 9-13 (69.2%) and going for 20 points. There were questions, at least among s2, whether Baldwin was a "real" PG. From game 2 on, he focused on getting his teammates involved, showing his PG prowess. The result is that he is leading the league in assists (8.4/game). So, he can score when he wants to and he can get assists when he wants. How does he stack up to the other high assist men? WB4's FG% is 54% (after 5 games). The next 5 assist men's FG% are in order: 37%, 30%, 34%, 41%, and 38% (Trae Young). By this measure, he is clearly the best assist man in Vegas.

Baldwin Dominates Whole Teams
In the 5 SL games, Baldwin has played 130 minutes. In those minutes, we have outscored opponents by 89 points. On a per game basis, he is averaging 26 mpg and we are outscoring our opponents by 17.8 points in that time. One way to get a feel for what these numbers mean: For every 10 minutes Baldwin is in a game, we go on a 7-0 run.

Baldwin hasn't had a bad game yet. If this continues, only media bias will keep him from being the MVP of SL.
#GoBlazers

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Baldwin Even Dominates his Own Team
The Blazers have outscored their opponents by a whopping 79 points in 5 games, which is great! But..... as discussed above we've outscored the other teams by 89 when Baldwin plays. i.e.

Baldwin on floor for Blazers: +89 in 130 minutes.
Baldwin NOT on floor for Blazers: -10 in 70 minutes.

Wow!

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Cool analysis!

One slight qualifier: it seems that we're the only team that hasn't started resting players. As the games go on, you see less and less of the "name" players. In some cases (e.g. D'Aaron Fox) teams only played their best players one or two games.

(I don't care, BTW - I WANT THAT CHAMPIONSHIP! Revenge over the Lakers in the rematch! But voters will probably bear that in mind when they decide MVP.)

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Cool analysis!

One slight qualifier: it seems that we're the only team that hasn't started resting players. As the games go on, you see less and less of the "name" players. In some cases (e.g. D'Aaron Fox) teams only played their best players one or two games.

(I don't care, BTW - I WANT THAT CHAMPIONSHIP! Revenge over the Lakers in the rematch! But voters will probably bear that in mind when they decide MVP.)

Good observation. I've actually mentioned it twice, but not here. Atlanta played in another SL, so they shut down they're guys very early. Boston did too. However, now that we're down to the final 4, I expect that the remaining teams will actually try to win the championship.

 

[e_blazer]

Baldwin Even Dominates his Own Team
The Blazers have outscored their opponents by a whopping 79 points in 5 games, which is great! But..... as discussed above we've outscored the other teams by 89 when Baldwin plays. i.e.

Baldwin on floor for Blazers: +89 in 130 minutes.
Baldwin NOT on floor for Blazers: -10 in 70 minutes.

Wow!

It’s summer league and all of that...BUT Baldwin’s play has been eye-opening. It has me wondering how much better the Blazers might be if Baldwin earns the backup PG spot and CJ just sticks to playing 2G. Not that Baldwin is necessarily a better PG than CJ, but CJ would be able to spend all of his energies in a scoring mentality, plus there’s no arguing that Baldwin is a better defender.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

It’s summer league and all of that...BUT Baldwin’s play has been eye-opening. It has me wondering how much better the Blazers might be if Baldwin earns the backup PG spot and CJ just sticks to playing 2G. Not that Baldwin is necessarily a better PG than CJ, but CJ would be able to spend all of his energies in a scoring mentality, plus there’s no arguing that Baldwin is a better defender.

I like where your head's at, but I think Baldwin is way better than CJ at running a team. For whatever reason, CJ hasn't figured out drive and dish.

 

[riverman]

I've said since he got here that CJ is a perfect 6 man...green light scorer...he won't accept that role but it is the role that suits him best...he has that Jamal Crawford, young Jason Terry mindset of scoring in bunches...as it is he'll still start at the 2 and Baldwin will be on court as pg with either Lillard or CJ.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I've said since he got here that CJ is a perfect 6 man...green light scorer...he won't accept that role but it is the role that suits him best...he has that Jamal Crawford, young Jason Terry mindset of scoring in bunches...as it is he'll still start at the 2 and Baldwin will be on court as pg with either Lillard or CJ.

Makes sense.

I'm actually pretty effing excited about a Dame/CJ/Baldwin/Curry guard rotation. Hopefully coach won't mess it up by putting Stauskas in there.

 

[Gronk Brady]

I've said since he got here that CJ is a perfect 6 man...green light scorer...he won't accept that role but it is the role that suits him best...he has that Jamal Crawford, young Jason Terry mindset of scoring in bunches...as it is he'll still start at the 2 and Baldwin will be on court as pg with either Lillard or CJ.

This is spot on... this is why CJ needs to go... he won’t accept the 6th man role, and even if he did at this point, he is getting paid way too much at 26-30 mil per year for the next 3 seasons

 

[tester551]

It’s summer league and all of that...BUT Baldwin’s play has been eye-opening. It has me wondering how much better the Blazers might be if Baldwin earns the backup PG spot and CJ just sticks to playing 2G. Not that Baldwin is necessarily a better PG than CJ, but CJ would be able to spend all of his energies in a scoring mentality, plus there’s no arguing that Baldwin is a better defender.

I think he is....

 

[illmatic99]

This is spot on... this is why CJ needs to go... he won’t accept the 6th man role, and even if he did at this point, he is getting paid way too much at 26-30 mil per year for the next 3 seasons

Dame and CJ have their minutes staggered as is. Even if he starts, CJ plays a ton of minutes with the second team. You really care that much about the 5 minutes he starts with Dame in each half?

I think he is....

Don't think it's even in doubt.

 

[e_blazer]

Dame and CJ have their minutes staggered as is. Even if he starts, CJ plays a ton of minutes with the second team. You really care that much about the 5 minutes he starts with Dame in each half?

Don't think it's even in doubt.

The only element of doubt I have is that Wade has been passing to guys who can hit ope shots. CJ, noise much.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I think he is....

I don't understand why, but I'm OK with you disagreeing with me.

 

[Reep]

I don't understand why, but I'm OK with you disagreeing with me.

To me it's how your are comparing them. As a pure scorer, CJ is better no doubt. But, if you include defense, running a team, etc., then I would agree that Baldwin appears to be the better player even now. I say "appears" because we need to see what happens in regular season. Also, Baldwin seems to have more honey badger in him--and Blazers need more honey badger.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

To me it's how your are comparing them. As a pure scorer, CJ is better no doubt. But, if you include defense, running a team, etc., then I would agree that Baldwin appears to be the better player even now. I say "appears" because we need to see what happens in regular season. Also, Baldwin seems to have more honey badger in him--and Blazers need more honey badger.

I'm not sure we're communicating. I think CJ is the better player. I just think Baldwin is much better at running the point.

 

[Reep]

I'm not sure we're communicating. I think CJ is the better player. I just think Baldwin is much better at running the point.

I understand you, was was speaking more generally. We all likely have different views about what "better player" means. CJ and Baldwin are very different players. Which one is better starting for the current roster is not known.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Baldwin as a 6th man is how he should be developed.

 

[Reep]

Baldwin as a 6th man is how he should be developed.

I'm certain that will be the way it goes, and might be best. I'm just curious to see the stats (including plus/minus) of the 5-man lineups with Baldwin playing next to Dame, compared to Baldwin playing next to CJ, compared to Dame and CJ together. It will also be interesting to see number of fast breaks with Baldwin running the point, compared to the others.

 

[tester551]

I don't understand why, but I'm OK with you disagreeing with me.

I'm not disagreeing with you.
As a PG, I think BIV is better than CJ.

I was disputing @e_blazer argument where he was saying CJ might be a better PG of the two.

 

[e_blazer]

I'm not disagreeing with you.
As a PG, I think BIV is better than CJ.

I was disputing @e_blazer argument where he was saying CJ might be a better PG of the two.

I didn't actually say that. I just noted that I wasn't necessarily saying that Baldwin is the better PG. I'd say that Baldwin's summer work would argue that he is superior, but he has to show the ability to play that way against rotation NBA players before I'd be willing to make that call. I'm pretty sure that CJ would put up some pretty incredible numbers against summer league competition.

 

[illmatic99]

I'm pretty sure that CJ would put up some pretty incredible numbers against summer league competition.

He didn't.

Rookie year: 21 ppg, 37% FG, 3.4 apg, 4.0 rpg in 35 mpg in 5 games, 18 PER.
Year 2: 20.2 ppg, 48% FG, 2.0 apg, 3.2 rpg in 33 mpg in 5 games, 25 PER.

Wade: 14.4 ppg, 54% FG, 8.4 apg, 3.8 rpg in 26 mpg in 5 games 29 PER. He's leading the entire summer league in ast% and is rarely turning it over. He looks like the best PG out there among all the teams.

Wade is a bonafide PG, CJ isn't.

 

[dviss1]

Baldwin Even Dominates his Own Team
The Blazers have outscored their opponents by a whopping 79 points in 5 games, which is great! But..... as discussed above we've outscored the other teams by 89 when Baldwin plays. i.e.

Baldwin on floor for Blazers: +89 in 130 minutes.
Baldwin NOT on floor for Blazers: -10 in 70 minutes.

Wow!

It's kinda simple. There's no backup PG on this summer league team. The offense kinda goes to shit when he's out.

 

[e_blazer]

He didn't.

Rookie year: 21 ppg, 37% FG, 3.4 apg, 4.0 rpg in 35 mpg in 5 games, 18 PER.
Year 2: 20.2 ppg, 48% FG, 2.0 apg, 3.2 rpg in 33 mpg in 5 games, 25 PER.

Wade: 14.4 ppg, 54% FG, 8.4 apg, 3.8 rpg in 26 mpg in 5 games 29 PER. He's leading the entire summer league in ast% and is rarely turning it over. He looks like the best PG out there among all the teams.

Wade is a bonafide PG, CJ isn't.

I thought the discussion was whether Baldwin is a better option this year over current-level CJ, not the CJ from five years ago. He may be, and I’d agree he has a more natural talent for that position, but he’s going to have to show it translates against the varsity.

 

[Boob-No-More]

(I don't care, BTW - I WANT THAT CHAMPIONSHIP! Revenge over the Lakers in the rematch! But voters will probably bear that in mind when they decide MVP.)

If the Lakers make it to the championship game, I fully expect LeBron to suit up and play all 48 minutes for them. It's their only chance at beating this Blazers team, and his only chance at making the finals now that he's in the Western Conference.

BNM

 

[Wizard Mentor]

If the Lakers make it to the championship game, I fully expect LeBron to suit up and play all 48 minutes for them. It's their only chance at beating this Blazers team, and his only chance at making the finals now that he's in the Western Conference.

BNM

LBJ will not be suiting up for the SL Lakers, however, the refs will treat them like he is

 

[riverman]

Baldwin shows signs of being a complete two way player...something we've lacked in the guard positions....Bazz was at times...led the team in steals last season..Baldwin flat out shuts down guards on defense....I've never been able to say that about CJ....CJ is a shooter...that's his game.
Baldwin also has a pretty alley oop pass...hit Layman several times...we haven't had that since Andre Miller....actually Baldwin has some of Dre's skillset in his game but is much faster.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Baldwin shows signs of being a complete two way player...something we've lacked in the guard positions....Bazz was at times...led the team in steals last season..Baldwin flat out shuts down guards on defense....I've never been able to say that about CJ....CJ is a shooter...that's his game.

The 2-way players for the Blazers are:
1) Nurk
2) Baldwin

soon Collins will develop into one as well.

 

[riverman]

The 2-way players for the Blazers are:
1) Nurk
2) Baldwin

soon Collins will develop into one as well.

I'm adding Layman to the list...his defense in underrated...people just guage him by scoring stats but he's a good all around player these days. Simons can become that as well

 

[Propagandist]

The 2-way players for the Blazers are:
1) Nurk
2) Baldwin

soon Collins will develop into one as well.

I think Moe could join the club next season, and I sure hope Collins does.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I'm adding Layman to the list...his defense in underrated...people just guage him by scoring stats but he's a good all around player these days. Simons can become that as well

I would say that Layman can't do either well enough.