Mars colonization timeline:
2016 – Elon Musk
reveals SpaceX plans for the Interplanetary Transport System (
ITS, formerly known as
Mars Colonial Transporter).
2016 – ESA&Roscosmos's
ExoMarsTrace Gas Orbiter enters Mars orbit, but
Schiaparelli lander crashes on the surface of Mars.
2017 – Elon Musk
updates SpaceX vision "to make life multiplanetary" and colonize Mars (with
Big Falcon Rocket architecture, formerly known as
Interplanetary Transport System or
ITS).
2018 – NASA's
InSight lander lands on Mars at Elysium Planitia.
2020s – Preparing for human arrival
2020 – Through the Commercial Crew Program NASA awards several companies, including SpaceX and Lockheed Martin,
to develop and build a lander/ascent vehicle(s) capable to land on the Moon and bring back to Lunar orbit at least 4 astronauts no later than 2028 with bonuses if the system is capable of serving Mars too.
2021 – ESA&Roscosmos's
ExoMars rover lands on Mars.
2021 – NASA's
Mars 2020 rover lands on Mars to collect samples for later retrieval.
2021 – First Chinese orbiter, lander and rover reaches Mars.
2021 – United Arab Emirates
Hope probe enters Mars orbit.
2022 – SpaceX's
BFR prototype booster and cargo spaceship makes first orbital test flight around Earth.
2023 – India's
Mangalyaan 2 orbiter and lander reaches Mars.
2025 – NASA's next generation
Next Mars Orbiter with solar electric ion thrusters and broadband laser communications enters Mars orbit.
2025 – Japan&France's
Martian Moons Explorer lands on Phobos to collect samples and return them to Earth in 2029.
2026 – First SpaceX's
BFR crew spaceship successfully tested.
2026 – A
communications relay satellite is placed at Sun-Earth Lagrangian point L5 to overcome the problem of periodic communications blackout with spacecrafts temporary behind the Sun.
2027 – NASA's
Deep Space Transport is completed at international
Deep Space Gateway in Lunar orbit, starting to carry out manned preparation missions for human Mars mission.
2027 –
Two demonstration BFR cargo spaceships separately land on Mars at the two most promising locations for the first human colony on Mars; both ships have a small nuclear power reactor in cargo and an automatic
atmospheric propellant plant to produce oxygen and methane from Martian atmosphere.
2027 – NASA's sample return orbiter and lander (with Mars ascent vehicle, sample collection rover and a small reconnaissance helicopter) reaches Mars
to retrieve samples collected by
Mars 2020 rover and launch them back to Earth.
2028 – SpaceX's
BFR crew spaceship and Lockheed Martin's lander lands on the rim of the Shackleton Crater to establish the
first human outpost on the Moon.
2028 – After the ground tests are done in both places
the final location of future "Mars City" is selected. Filled with local propellant the one
BFR spaceship not on the selected location launches from Mars and successfully lands back on Earth the next year.
2029 – Two unmanned
BFR spaceships land at the selected location of
Mars City: a backup crew ship (which has tested the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) on the way) and a cargo ship with rovers, miner/tunneling droids, solar panels and parts for a modular habitat for the first human mission.
2030s – First human base on Mars
2031 – On a NASA backed mission two SpaceX's
BFR crew spaceships with 12 astronauts each land at
Mars City –
first humans on Mars. The crewed ships are accompanied with a few cargo ships, including one with machinery for a ground-based In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) system.
2031 – The first modular habitat and a solar array is built.
2031 – Several modules for NASA's
Mars Base Camp (a manned station orbiting Mars) are prepositioned in Mars orbit.
2032 – After the best location is confirmed a small-scale
mining of water ice starts near the
Mars City base.
Ground-based ISRU system with atmosphere separator and chemical/propellant plant capable to produce and store water, nitrogen, argon and liquid methane and oxygen is assembled.
2032 – Several landing/launch pads for future
BFR missions are built a few miles from
Mars City base.
2033 – 2 of the 3 landed
BFR crew spaceships and all of the landed cargo spaceships, except the first one with nuclear power reactor and atmospheric propellant plant on-board, launch back to Earth unmanned.
2033 – 2nd crew of ~30 astronauts and workers aboard a
BFR spaceship lands at
Mars City. NASA's research
Mars Surface Field Station is established at
Mars City. A
hydroponic greenhouse is built to provide
Mars City with locally grown vegan food.
"The Mars Society" establishes its first chapter on Mars
2033 – NASA's
Deep Space Transport with 6 astronauts reaches Mars orbit and docks with the prepositioned modules to complete the
Mars Base Camp;
first human missions to Phobos and Deimos.
2034 – Small-scale Martian
soil extraction, chemical separation and storage equipment is assembled; the useful elements now can be used in the greenhouse and ISRU system.
2034 –
Lockheed Martin's Mars lander based at
Mars Base Camp is the 1st non-SpaceX built manned spaceship to land on Mars (with 4 astronauts) for a short exploration mission.
2034 – Several space agencies join NASA in financing the scientific operations at
Mars City and transport of their scientists between Earth and Mars.
2035 –
Deep Space Transport leaves
Mars Base Camp to come back to
Deep Space Gateway in Lunar orbit.
2035 –
First fully occupied BFR spaceship with 100 scientists and colonists lands at
Mars City.
2035 – NASA's
Mars Surface Field Station is reorganized into an international scientific research base with scientist crews rotating every Earth-Mars synod (26 months).
2036 – The
ISRU capabilities of Mars City are extended not only to produce air, water and methalox fuel, but also steel, bricks, cement and basic fertilizers, plastics and silica products (as glass panels). Some industrial size
3D printers are also assembled.
2037 –
First child is born on Mars at
Mars City. His voyage to Earth later in his life would be dangerous because of his bones and organs not being fit for Earth's gravity.
2037 –
BFR spaceship with 100 human colonists and workers lands at
Mars City, which now has a population of more than 200. Among them is SpaceX's founder Elon Musk.
2037 – A constellation of satellites with
global positioning system (GPS) and global communications system is placed in high orbit around Mars by
BFR cargo spaceship. Now it's hard to get lost on Mars; possibly only in a lava tube or a narrow canyon.
2038 –
Deep Space Transport with 2nd crew of 6 astronauts and additional modules for the station arrives at
Mars Base Camp. Lockheed Martin's Mars lander performs several short exploration missions to Martian surface at various locations.
2038 –
Cyanobacteria is introduced into the ISRU processes of
Mars City.
2038 – A
fish farm is built at
Mars City to provide more diverse local food for the colonists. The greenhouse is vastly expanded.
2039 – A transparent, radiation-filtering
geodesic dome with garden is built at
Mars City; work begins to build a new underground section of
Mars City with larger habitats and working areas to boost the population capacity of the colony to 1000.
2039 – 2nd crew of
Deep Space Transport leaves
Mars Base Camp.
2040s – Spaceport for the 4th planet from the Sun and beyond
2040 – Two more
BFR spaceships with 200 human colonists, workers and some
wealthy tourists land at
Mars City.
2041 – The new
underground section of
Mars City is finished. Now the colonists have a lot spacier living and working quarters with full radiation protection.
2041 –
Cultured meat "farm" is built at
Mars City, adding meat (although artificial) to the diet of the colonists.
2041 – Virgin Galactic establishes the
first luxury hotel at the outskirts of
Mars City.
2042 – NASA's 2nd generation
Deep Space Transport with
nuclear powered VASIMR engine reaches
Mars Base Camp in record-breaking time. Lockheed Martin's Mars lander performs another set of short exploration missions to Martian surface.
2042 – Two more
BFR spaceships with 200 passengers land at
Mars City, which now has a population of more than 500.
2043 – Several small
proxy bases for scientific, mining and other purposes are established within a few tens of miles from
Mars City.
2043 –
Deep Space Transport gen.2 leaves
Mars Base Camp.
2044 – Three more
BFR spaceships with 300 passengers land at
Mars City.
2044 – On behalf of several space agencies and asteroid mining companies Blue Origin's manned spaceship reaches
Mars Base Camp to move it near the Phobos. The task is to use modules of
Mars Base Camp as building blocks for
Free Spaceport of Phobosproject which will be a spinning space station with artificial gravity of 0.38g and serve as a way station and fuel&repairs depot for manned and unmanned spaceships heading for Mars, Main asteroid belt and beyond.
2045 – Large deposit of minerals with high concentration of
rare metals is discovered a few hundred miles from
Mars City. A research
Mining Base Beta is established.
2045 – A
land trip all around the Mars is completed for the 1st time.
2046 –
Deep Space Transport gen.2 arrives at
Free Spaceport of Phobos with additional modules for the station.
2046 – Four more
BFR spaceships with 400 passengers land at
Mars City bringing parts for a nuclear fusion reactor as well.
2047 – The landing pads a few miles from
Mars City where
BFR crew and cargo spaceships has landed and taken off for two decades are transformed into a small
spaceport with pressurized skybridges for both passengers and cargo.
2047 – A regular transport route between
Mars City and
Mining Base Beta is established.
2047 – Robotic water ice mining station is built on Phobos to supply the water and propellant needs of nearby
Free Spaceport of Phobos.
2048 – A short
hyperloop line from
Mars City to its spaceport is finished.
2048 – Four
BFR spaceships with 400 passengers land at
Mars City and one more with 100 (mostly miners) at the
Mining Base Beta.The
population of the Mars City now surpasses 1200 with 200 more colonists living at nearby proxy bases and 200 at
Mining Base Beta.
2048 – With additional modules arriving and maintained by Blue Origin the international
Free Spaceport of Phobos is now operational.
Robotic asteroid mining in Main asteroid belt now is rapidly expanding.
2048 – Blue Origin's lander lands on Mars for a scouting mission to confirm the best location for
Blue Mars base (in addition to Blue Origin's already developed
Blue Moon base).
2049 – A
nuclear fusion power station is operational at
Mars City.
2049 – A new underground section of
Mars City is finished, boosting its population capacity to 3000.
2050s – When bases grow into colonies
2050 – With increased electrical power the ISRU and industrial capabilities of
Mars City are greatly extended, using the resources harvested and refined around
Mars City and nearby proxy bases.
Solar panel assembly factory is the first factory on Mars manufacturing complex products.
2050 – Earth and Mars is the closest ever since the beginning of the colonization. The
largest colonial fleet ever arrives at Mars with 1000 colonists landing at
Mars City and 200 more at
Mining Base Beta.
2050 – Blue Origin's spaceship fleet with 100 workers arrives at
Free Spaceport of Phobos; workers are shuttled down to establish the
Blue Mars base about thousand miles from
Mars City.
2051 – With China and Russia focusing on the Moon,
India is the first Asian superpower to establish its own base on Mars.
2052 – NASA's
human mission to Ceres (flying with a new generation
nuclear fusion spaceship) stops at
Free Spaceport of Phobos to resupply, drop some scientists at
Mars City and take additional crew members from Mars.
2052 – 1500 more colonists land at
Mars City and
Mining Base Beta and 100 more at
Blue Mars base. There are now more than
4000 humans permanently or temporarily living on the surface of Mars.
2053 – At an impact crater near the
Mars City work begins to build the
first large-scale dome on Mars, covering the entire crater a mile across.
2054 – A
deuterium separation facility becomes operational at
Mars City.
2055 – As more colonists land at
Mars City it reaches its maximum population capacity. More habitats are built at the outskirts of
Mars City, at its proxy bases and
Mining Base Beta to support the influx of colonists.
2055 – Several more Blue Origin's shuttles land at
Blue Mars base, boosting its population to more than 400. Indian Mars colony now has more than 200.
2055 – Using its strong presence on the Moon in its favor,
China establishes its first colony on Mars which now is being expanded fast.
2056 – The rover repair depot at
Mars City is upgraded to a
Tesla rover factory.
2056 – A regular transport route between
Mars City and
Blue Mars base is established.
2056 – The large-scale
transparent, radiation-filtering, light-veight dome is finished and pressurized at
Mars City, covering an area of almost one square mile; workers move in now to construct the buildings and gardens (with such features as artificial waterfalls) below the dome.
2057 – The new generation of
SpaceX's nuclear fusion powered spaceships arrive at the
Free Spaceport of Phobos; passengers are shuttled down to the spaceports of
Mars City and
Mining Base Beta. The
BFR spaceships are retired from SpaceX fleet after 33 years of successful service and sold to Brazil.
2058 –
Mars City's dome is finished, having a maximum population capacity of 20'000.
2058 – A hyperloop line and a heavy cargo train tracks are built between the
Mars City and the industrial complex at
Mining Base Beta.
2059 – SpaceX's nuclear spaceships take more colonists to
Mars City, bringing its population to 7000.
2059 – First
BrazilianBFR spaceship lands at
Mars City. One of nearby proxy bases is sold to Brazil and expanded with more living habitats.
2059 –
United Arab Emirates establishes its first base on Mars – the
New Dubai.
2060s – Nuclear fusion spaceships open up Mars
■
Mars City's population reaches the level you can't anymore made the decisions by corporate hierarchy or direct democracy only.
First city council on Mars is elected.
■ The expanded
Free Spaceport of Phobos more and more serves as a
space logistics hub not only for colonies on Mars but for mining activities in Main asteroid belt as well. Several more advanced nations begins participating in the spaceport project.
■
First humans born on Mars travel to Earth using exoskeletons as body-support because of Earths heavier gravity.
■ Commercial companies from various nations open their branches and operations on Mars.
■
Tourism from Earth is expanding on Mars. Although the trip is still expensive and only the rich can afford it. Besides its high-tech cities and bases Mars can offer spectacular safari rides and if you are really wealthy you can hire some of the guides to take you to the caldera of Olympus Mons, depths of Valles Marineris or other exclusive locations.
■ A
second large-scale dome on Mars is built at
Blue Mars. A hyperloop line is built between
Mars City and
Blue Mars.
■ First measures to start the
terraforming process of Mars are made, powdering Martian polar ice caps with black lichen to reduce their albedo and melt the ice and building automatic halocarbon factories throughout Mars to produce and
release super-greenhouse gasesin Martian atmosphere.
■
Artificial magnetic field generator is placed at Sun-Mars Lagrangian point L1 to
shield Mars from solar radiation with the generated magnetotail and help the terraformation process of the planet.
■ The
Free Spaceport of Phobos is a starting point for NASA's
human mission to Galilean moons of Jupiter.
■ Nuclear fusion powered spaceships (greatly reducing the travel time from Earth and widening the launch window) bring more colonists to Mars than ever before. In 2060s the
human population on Mars explodes from less than 10'000 to more than 50'000 with
Mars City alone having 25'000.
2070s – Human outposts spreading past Mars
■ The
Free Spaceport of Phobos is the main supply node for
human outposts on Ceres, Vesta, Pallas, asteroids in Main asteroid belt and Galilean moons of Jupiter.
■ Cyanobacteria and methanogens are spread in lower regions of Mars to further increase the terraformation process.
■ The old workhorse of human colonization of Mars – the
BFR spaceships are finally retired completely. The oldest of them are 50 years old now.
■
Mars City is expanded with two more domes of similar size and several smaller ones.
■ There are
5 cities with large-scale domes now on Mars. All of them are interlinked with hyperloop lines.
■ The cluster of Indian colonies on Mars is starting to specialize on growing
food for human space outposts in Main asteroid belt and beyond, as Mars is the closest object to them with substantial gravity for growing crops.
■ The
Free Spaceport of Phobos is a starting point for NASA's
human mission to the moons of Saturn (Titan, Enceladus and other).
■ Now almost all of space-faring nations are represented on Mars with a base, a city block or a corporate enterprise.
■ In 2070s the
human population on Mars expands from 50'000 to 200'000 with the largest colony –
Mars City – having 60'000. Four more cities have a population of more than 15'000.
2080s – Mars gets its self-government
■ First Martian Council, consisting of
proportionally drawn representatives from every Martian city and base, is assembled on the principle of self-government. The Council deals with the issues important for all of the Martians (as ongoing terraformation initiatives or building a space elevator) and acts as a representative for Martian population in
relations with the corporations and governments of Earth.
■ As
space elevators on Earth and on Moon become operational, the cost of launching any mass to Mars and elsewhere into space is slashed considerably, greatly speeding up the use of space resources and space colonization.
■ Almost all colonists have left the oldest sections of
Mars City with their obsolete infrastructure; the area is declared now a
national heritage site, preserving the 1st human colony on Mars as it was in the late 2040s.
■ Tourism from Earth is becoming more and more mainstream. Now even a
middle-class people can afford a trip to Mars.
■ Despite criticism China builds the
first prison on Mars. Soon other colonies are quietly sending there their criminals too.
■ More powerful halocarbon factories are set up throughout Mars. The bacterial and lichen coverage around Mars is further increased.
■ Connected base stations for
downward and outward space elevators on Phobos are built; work begins to build both space elevators. The downward elevator will cut short of the upper edge of Mars's atmosphere with a shuttle platform at its tip. The outward elevator will have several platforms at different points to catch and release payloads (including spaceships) to Earth's system, to Main asteroid belt and to Jupiter's system.
■ Work begins to build a large shuttle port at the summit of the Martian volcano practically on the equator – Pavonis Mons – for shuttles heading to and coming from Phobos space elevator.
■ In 2080s the
human population on Mars expands from 200'000 to 500'000 with the largest of the Martian cities –
Mars City – surging past 150'000 inhabitants. Particularly large colonial fleet arrives on 2082 when Earth and Mars is the closest since 2003, only 55.9 million kilometers (34.7 million miles) apart.
2090s – The millionth Martian
■ The
Phobos space elevator system is finished, greatly speeding up the colonization of Mars, interplanetary trade and the growth of human outposts in Main asteroid belt and Galilean moons of Jupiter.
■ The
shuttle port at the summit of Pavonis Mons quickly expands into one of the largest human colonies on Mars –
Pavonis City, which is soon connected with other major Martian cities by hyperloop lines.
■ Establishment of
Pavonis City greatly speeds up tourism in some of the most spectacular Martian regions nearby – Tharsis Montes, Olympus Mons, Noctis Labyrinthus and Valles Marineris. Tourist bases and hotels are popping up there fast. One of the hyperloop lines runs through all the length of Valles Marineris.
■ In an anticipation of air pressure and temperature increase,
new human colonies are being set up mainly in the lower regions of Mars, particularly Hellas Planitia and Valles Marineris, where the results of terraformation activities will be felt first.
■ In 2090s the human population on Mars reaches 1 million. Finally
Elon Musk's goal to put 1 million people on Mars is reached.
22nd century – Mars becomes independent
■ Mars becomes practically
self-sufficient, having to import only the most complex goods and intellectual property.
■ The self-sufficiency results in
Mars becoming an independent nation-state. The Martian government has to buy up the non-Martian governmental assets located on Mars.
■ As a
technologically advanced frontier society Mars and orbital stations around it become the primary source of specialists and workers needed for human bases and missions further in Main asteroid belt and outer Solar system.
■ Air pressure and temperature on Mars is increased to the level where there is
flowing water on the surface and
simple plants can be introduced into newly created biosphere of the planet.
■ As one of the lower regions on Mars close to the equator Valles Marineris is seeing the most benefits from terraformation activities and Phobos space elevator; cities and farming communities are spreading throughout the valleys and at the end of the 22nd century there are nearly 5 million people living in Valles Marineris. It's the most populous urban area on Mars.
■ In the 22nd century the total
human population on Mars increases 30-fold – to more than 30 million
