Super Tuesday
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<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Shapecity @ Feb 5 2008, 02:57 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I noticed all the Hillary signs in and around my neighborhood mysteriously disappeared over night when I drove to work this morning. LOL.</div>
Watch her campaign file a lawsuit about it.
Watch her campaign file a lawsuit about it.
Денг Гордон
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<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (AEM @ Feb 5 2008, 04:57 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>She might cry (again)</div>
That only happens the day before a major primary.
That only happens the day before a major primary.
Денг Гордон
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I'll put in a lot of numbers in here from earlier.
Alabama: Obama 54 Clinton 41
Conneticut: Obama 50 Clinton 46
Illinois: Obama 68 Clinton 30
Missouri: Obama 46 Clinton 47
New Jersey: Obama 48 Clinton 49
Oklahoma: Obama 33 Clinton 58
Tennessee: Obama 40 Clinton 52
Delaware: 49 Clinton 44
Massachusetts: Obama 48 Clinton 48
Georgia: Obama 68 Clinton 30
Arkansas: Obama 28 Clinton 66
and on the delegates.
23 of 32 for Clinton in Arkansas (right on on my prediction).
60 of 87 to Obama in Georgia.
111+ delegates in Illinois, better than my predictions for him.
Clinton to win popular vote in Massachusetts probably, but Obama winning the delegate count. (But Obama might win from running up the score in Boston).
Hillary only gets 8 more delegates than Obama in Tennessee (that is way worse than my predictions for her).
Hillary only to win 8 more delegates more in Oklahoma (worse than my predictions).
Looks like Obama is going to exceed my predictions for delegates.
Alabama: Obama 54 Clinton 41
Conneticut: Obama 50 Clinton 46
Illinois: Obama 68 Clinton 30
Missouri: Obama 46 Clinton 47
New Jersey: Obama 48 Clinton 49
Oklahoma: Obama 33 Clinton 58
Tennessee: Obama 40 Clinton 52
Delaware: 49 Clinton 44
Massachusetts: Obama 48 Clinton 48
Georgia: Obama 68 Clinton 30
Arkansas: Obama 28 Clinton 66
and on the delegates.
23 of 32 for Clinton in Arkansas (right on on my prediction).
60 of 87 to Obama in Georgia.
111+ delegates in Illinois, better than my predictions for him.
Clinton to win popular vote in Massachusetts probably, but Obama winning the delegate count. (But Obama might win from running up the score in Boston).
Hillary only gets 8 more delegates than Obama in Tennessee (that is way worse than my predictions for her).
Hillary only to win 8 more delegates more in Oklahoma (worse than my predictions).
Looks like Obama is going to exceed my predictions for delegates.
Really Lost One
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Can someone tell me what this is about? The winners move on to the election or something??
Денг Гордон
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Obama:
Illinois
Georgia
Clinton:
Tennessee
Arkansas
Oklahoma
Huckabee:
Arkansas
West Virginia
Romney:
Massachusetts
McCain:
Delaware
New Jersey
Connecticut
Illinois
Illinois
Georgia
Clinton:
Tennessee
Arkansas
Oklahoma
Huckabee:
Arkansas
West Virginia
Romney:
Massachusetts
McCain:
Delaware
New Jersey
Connecticut
Illinois
Денг Гордон
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Massachusetts projected for Hillary Clinton. (Popular Vote...delegates projected for Obama)
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<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Brian @ Feb 5 2008, 08:53 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Can someone tell me what this is about? The winners move on to the election or something??</div>
Yeah basically, but one of the people who lose can try to run as an Independent to give the voters 3 options instead of 2.
Yeah basically, but one of the people who lose can try to run as an Independent to give the voters 3 options instead of 2.
Денг Гордон
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And it doesn't end until August either I believe...
Денг Гордон
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New York goes Hillary.
Денг Гордон
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Delaware goes Obama.
Денг Гордон
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New York: Obama 40 Clinton 57
Денг Гордон
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Arizona: Obama 48 Clinton 46
Ron Paul leading in Minnesota right now.
Ron Paul leading in Minnesota right now.
Денг Гордон
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840 delegates is a majority.
38-30 split in Tennessee in favor of Clinton.
Obama 315 Clinton 228 in delegates so far.
38-30 split in Tennessee in favor of Clinton.
Obama 315 Clinton 228 in delegates so far.
Денг Гордон
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New Mexico: Obama 48 Clinton 40 Richardson 4
huevonkiller
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Why the hell is Hillary still leading in delegates by 50-70 or so on some channels? Super delegate BS again?
Obama has done even better than I expected though, he continues to build momentum and it seems like those Edwards people like him more.
Obama has done even better than I expected though, he continues to build momentum and it seems like those Edwards people like him more.
Thoth
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<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BG7 Lavigne @ Feb 5 2008, 05:11 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (AEM @ Feb 5 2008, 04:57 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>She might cry (again)</div>
That only happens the day before a major primary.
</div>
Yeah. Cali & NY are small potatoes.
That only happens the day before a major primary.
</div>
Yeah. Cali & NY are small potatoes.
Thoth
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<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (huevonkiller @ Feb 5 2008, 10:56 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Why the hell is Hillary still leading in delegates by 50-70 or so on some channels? Super delegate BS again?
Obama has done even better than I expected though, he continues to build momentum and it seems like those Edwards people like him more.</div>
Its that Liberal bias shining through. lol.
I'd bet the Faux news channel hopes Hillary wins it all so they can take aim at her for awhile.
Obama has done even better than I expected though, he continues to build momentum and it seems like those Edwards people like him more.</div>
Its that Liberal bias shining through. lol.
I'd bet the Faux news channel hopes Hillary wins it all so they can take aim at her for awhile.
CelticKing
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I went in today at about 2pm, thinking I'd be voting for McCain, but they told me I could only vote for a Democrat since I was registered within their party.
So I ended up voting for Obama, whose books I've read and think highly of. (but I'll still vote for McCain for president)
So I ended up voting for Obama, whose books I've read and think highly of. (but I'll still vote for McCain for president)
Денг Гордон
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Missouri is going to go down to every last vote and likely have a recount.
I have Clinton leading by 567 votes right now before 3 counties with no basis on, so that can easily get skewed towards Obama.
I have Clinton leading by 567 votes right now before 3 counties with no basis on, so that can easily get skewed towards Obama.
Thoth
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Recently, on MSNBC, Chuck Todd (a political guru) said that Obama has approx 590 delegates and Hillary 540. This, I think, includes a split in CA.
What does & doesn't surprise me is Obama won here in Utah. Its funny as Barack was recently cited as the most liberal senator and Hillary 18th. HRC carries alot of baggage and Bill too. As a Utah native, I still have no clue as to what drives the collective mindset of the dominant culture here.
What does & doesn't surprise me is Obama won here in Utah. Its funny as Barack was recently cited as the most liberal senator and Hillary 18th. HRC carries alot of baggage and Bill too. As a Utah native, I still have no clue as to what drives the collective mindset of the dominant culture here.
Thoth
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I'm watching Obama's speech and loved that bit about hoping for the different results with the same players and he's calling out the lobbyists too.
It's a shame it won't be Obama v Paul or even Huckabee... the general election might actually be about ideas & solutions instead sniping & mudslinging.
It's a shame it won't be Obama v Paul or even Huckabee... the general election might actually be about ideas & solutions instead sniping & mudslinging.
M Two One
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<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Shapecity @ Feb 5 2008, 11:47 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I never latched on to any of people running for presidency this year. By process of elimination Obama's going to be the person I vote for. I'm hoping Obama comes through for the Dems.</div>
Same here. Not a big fan of anyone, but he's tolerable in my book.
Same here. Not a big fan of anyone, but he's tolerable in my book.
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How it works.
Both parties have a national convention at the end of August. Each state has a republican and democrat primary or caucus to elect delegates who'll represent the state at the party's convention. The delegates are obligated to vote for the candidate who won the primary/caucus, but only for the first ballot at the convention - after that, they are free to vote as they see fit.
Republican primaries are, for the most part, winner-take-all. That is, the guy who gets the plurality (most) votes gets all the delegates.
The Democrats have most primaries where the delegates are elected on a precinct-by-precinct basis. Thus, a person can win 60% of the votes but the delegates can be split 50-50.
There are a fixed number of delegates for each party. The number needed to win the party's nomination is a known quantity. Once a candidate gets that many delegates, the rest of the primary schedule is mostly meaningless.
At the convention, the nominee is voted on and then there's about 8 weeks for the two parties to campaign for the presidency.
The president is elected by delegates to the electoral college. It's like a senate or house of representatives that is formed after the election is done, they cast their votes, and then it's dissolved.
The electors are won on a state-by-state basis in the general election, winner take all. 271 electoral votes are needed to win. In 2000, Bush won 271+ electoral votes even though Gore had more votes nationwide - the popular vote is only meaningful in the state-wide tallies.
There are rules for what happens if nobody gets 271+ votes, but I won't get into that here.
There are many 3rd parties, including the Libertarians and the Green Party. They all have their own caucuses/primaries and a convention and nominate their candidate. It's rare that any 3rd party candidate gets any electoral votes, though they might get quite a few popular votes (Ross Perot got like 19% of the vote but no electoral votes in 1992).
The rules for getting on the ballot in all 50 states are ridiculously hard, and the two parties have no incentive to ease the rules to allow the 3rd parties on the stage. It is how it is.
Both parties have a national convention at the end of August. Each state has a republican and democrat primary or caucus to elect delegates who'll represent the state at the party's convention. The delegates are obligated to vote for the candidate who won the primary/caucus, but only for the first ballot at the convention - after that, they are free to vote as they see fit.
Republican primaries are, for the most part, winner-take-all. That is, the guy who gets the plurality (most) votes gets all the delegates.
The Democrats have most primaries where the delegates are elected on a precinct-by-precinct basis. Thus, a person can win 60% of the votes but the delegates can be split 50-50.
There are a fixed number of delegates for each party. The number needed to win the party's nomination is a known quantity. Once a candidate gets that many delegates, the rest of the primary schedule is mostly meaningless.
At the convention, the nominee is voted on and then there's about 8 weeks for the two parties to campaign for the presidency.
The president is elected by delegates to the electoral college. It's like a senate or house of representatives that is formed after the election is done, they cast their votes, and then it's dissolved.
The electors are won on a state-by-state basis in the general election, winner take all. 271 electoral votes are needed to win. In 2000, Bush won 271+ electoral votes even though Gore had more votes nationwide - the popular vote is only meaningful in the state-wide tallies.
There are rules for what happens if nobody gets 271+ votes, but I won't get into that here.
There are many 3rd parties, including the Libertarians and the Green Party. They all have their own caucuses/primaries and a convention and nominate their candidate. It's rare that any 3rd party candidate gets any electoral votes, though they might get quite a few popular votes (Ross Perot got like 19% of the vote but no electoral votes in 1992).
The rules for getting on the ballot in all 50 states are ridiculously hard, and the two parties have no incentive to ease the rules to allow the 3rd parties on the stage. It is how it is.
