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Stats.

8th in offense, 14th in defense through ten games. 8th in net rating.

Dame's shooting should bring that offense up more, but if the defense hangs around here for much of the year, I don't see any possibilities where we win less than 48/50 games.
 
illmatic99 said:
Stats.

8th in offense, 14th in defense through ten games. 8th in net rating.

Dame's shooting should bring that offense up more, but if the defense hangs around here for much of the year, I don't see any possibilities where we win less than 48/50 games.
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We will probably have more games against good opponents than we've had so far, and more difficult travel on road trips than the home heavy schedule we've had.

On the flip side there will probably be more tanking teams at the last third of the season that we can pad some wins against, while we seem deeper than other teams able to withstand starter absence that should increase over 82 games.

Yes maybe Lillard shoots better, but Simons and other will likely shoot worse.

Will be interesting to see. I still like the over on 44 wins, and the Lakers under looks very good. I'm probably way wrong on the GS under though, didn't think that team would be better than last year and they look much better.
 
WesleyMatthews said:
We will probably have more games against good opponents than we've had so far, and more difficult travel on road trips than the home heavy schedule we've had.

On the flip side there will probably be more tanking teams at the last third of the season that we can pad some wins against, while we seem deeper than other teams able to withstand starter absence that should increase over 82 games.

Yes maybe Lillard shoots better, but Simons and other will likely shoot worse.

Will be interesting to see. I still like the over on 44 wins, and the Lakers under looks very good. I'm probably way wrong on the GS under though, didn't think that team would be better than last year and they look much better.
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those ratings numbers are still moving significantly because of a 1 or 2 game stretch. They were down to 24th in defensive rating at 109.8 when they came off the road trip. Now they are 16th at 107.5. They had a net of +1.2, now it's +2.9

pretty certain that this:

upload_2021-11-8_10-34-14.png

will shift things the other direction

I can't remember what I predicted for the season....IIRC it was 46 or 47 wins. At this point, assuming Dame gets back on track and there are no significant long term injuries, I'd think the Blazers have a better chance of hitting the 50 win mark than dropping below 44 wins

one shorter term factor could be if Portland has any starters getting locked away for Covid protocols. Bad timing on that coud shift 3 or 4 games to the loss column
 
upload_2021-11-18_12-59-39.png

No way would I have predicted the scoring of Dame and CJ at this point. Astonishing we're playing as well as we are given that.

Roco kind of sucks, but he's actually hitting threes at career highs. He normally takes 6 or 7 a game over his career, so it's kind of weird his attempts are down. This is his worst scoring year of his career by far, except the one year he played center in Houston. He's traditionally been a reliable 13ppg guy.

Dame's assists and Nurk's rebounding are also at career highs. I wonder if Dame is transitioning into the Anti-Kidd, playing the first half of his career as a scorer and the second half as a passer? How weird is that?

upload_2021-11-18_13-4-29.png
Dame continues to be the worst shooter on the team getting minutes.

Nas and Ant are neck and neck in minutes, and each are getting almost as much burn as Nurk.

Roco is the only rotation guy below 14 on PER. (An imperfect measure, to be sure, but it's always a quick barometer to see how much overall talent there is on a team.) To have this many guys playing around league average (15 PER) or better is actually quite nice. The pieces don't really fit and our stars are sucking, and as always our defense could be better, but you look at those PERs and it indicated to me we've got a lot of decent guys who are at least desirable assets.
 
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It’s underestimated the importance that your 6th through 9th guys don’t suck. They can easily cancel out one superstar’s contribution, as we saw last year. We are really deep talent wise. We just need Dame back and we need to get fully in sync both O and D which will take a while. But we are seeing glimpses.
 
It's going to be a struggle keeping everybody happy. Cody played 4 minutes last night. And that's with Nurk playing only 23. And Ant only played 18 on a night when Dame and Norm were questionable.

Cody in particular deserves more minutes, especially given the paycut he took to come here. (But having said that: he's a clear step down from Nurk, and I'd rather give his minutes to Nance, who was rightly given more burn last night and was pretty much player of the game.)
 
Is there a site that will give you a team's home stats vs their away stats? I'd like to see a side-by-side comparison.
 
Rastapopoulos said:
It's going to be a struggle keeping everybody happy. Cody played 4 minutes last night. And that's with Nurk playing only 23. And Ant only played 18 on a night when Dame and Norm were questionable.

Cody in particular deserves more minutes, especially given the paycut he took to come here. (But having said that: he's a clear step down from Nurk, and I'd rather give his minutes to Nance, who was rightly given more burn last night and was pretty much player of the game.)
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Really speaks to our depth this year
Rastapopoulos said:
It's going to be a struggle keeping everybody happy. Cody played 4 minutes last night. And that's with Nurk playing only 23. And Ant only played 18 on a night when Dame and Norm were questionable.

Cody in particular deserves more minutes, especially given the paycut he took to come here. (But having said that: he's a clear step down from Nurk, and I'd rather give his minutes to Nance, who was rightly given more burn last night and was pretty much player of the game.)
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Really speaks to our depth. I think minutes will depend on who we are playing and how well they are playing. That’s how it should be but rarely is in the NBA.

on a good note we’ve won 2 games in a row against two good teams!!! Knock on wood but they seem to be getting a better feel for defense (shutting down teams in 2nd half or at least slowing them down). Also so refreshing seeing coach’s making mid game adjustments
 
Dame's FT% over his career (last column):

upload_2021-11-18_9-13-32.png

so then, he is shooting his lowest percentage since 2014-15. Some of that may just be shooting less than half the FT's a game he's used to. But I'd say that's a pretty clear sign the new ball is bothering him
 
Wizard Mentor said:
Thanks!

Dr. Jekyll,
20th in ortg
30th in drtg
28th in net rating
16th in efg%
19th in tsp

Meet Mr. Hyde:
2nd in ortg
10th in drtg
4th in net rating
3rd in efg%
3rd in tsp

I
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so, right now Portland has schedule & record balance: 8 games on road & 8 games at home; 7-1 at home, 1-7 on the road

ranked 30th in defense on the road and 10th at home, you'd kind of expect an overall around 20th, but they are 26th. A 2nd and 20th rating in offense suggests around 11th, but they are 6th. Meaning their offense has been really really good at home while their defense has been really really bad on the road. Looks like the defense is more of a negative extreme than the offense is a positive extreme

the new rules are having an incredible impact on offense. Portland is 6th in offense at 111.3. Last season, the 6th place team had a rating of 117.2. A 5.9 point drop. First place has dropped 5.3 points. Meaning either the NBA is eliminating 11-13 points a game from unnatural acts or the officials are sweeping a lot of real fouls into the no-whistle zone
 


Good offense, bad defense. What does that remind me of?

And look at the Sixers. Has Simmons' value bottomed out yet?
 
Rastapopoulos said:


Good offense, bad defense. What does that remind me of?

And look at the Sixers. Has Simmons' value bottomed out yet?
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So we upgraded our defense on the bench and got a defensive coach, yet only a minor uptick; why not a bigger jump?
 
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Every single rotation player on our team is scoring at higher efficiency than Dame and CJ.
Dame and CJ account for 45% of all shots our team takes.

upload_2021-11-26_10-30-30.png


Me:

help-lips.gif


Dame/CJ:
22a4d71b0e66ff0f47f26200eb0a05f2.gif


The box score:
puke-frodo-lord-of-the-rings.gif
 
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Overall:
4th in offense.
27th in defense.

Home only:
1st in offense
8th in defense

Road only:
17th in offense
30th in defense (and it's not close to the 29th team btw).

Our defense is 15 points per 100 possessions better at home than on the road. How the hell is that even possible?
 
THE HCP said:
27th in defense…… SIGH
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You're on these road trips. What are these dudes doing before game nights, man? Is everyone just partying all the time or something?

That kinda difference in home/road splits is staggering and unprecendented.
 
illmatic99 said:
You're on these road trips. What are these dudes doing before game nights, man? Is everyone just partying all the time or something?

That kinda difference in home/road splits is staggering and unprecendented.
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Not seeing that with this team, like you did in the past. No clue man, it has to be mental now right?
 
At least we have a long way to go to get to these team’s levels…… so there is hope.

BA56489F-076C-4ED8-A7D3-57565963AF04.jpeg
 
THE HCP said:
Not seeing that with this team, like you did in the past. No clue man, it has to be mental now right?
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These are the worst defenses on the road:

upload_2021-12-2_10-45-4.png

Worst defenses at home:

upload_2021-12-2_10-45-38.png

Denver is the only other team with this sorta difference. Generally the same teams on both lists. Denver has the 4th best D at home, but the 28th on the road. Maybe you can use altitude as an excuse for them.

I can't figure out our excuse-- Chauncey needs to figure this out.
 
illmatic99 said:
These are the worst defenses on the road:

View attachment 42551

Worst defenses at home:

View attachment 42553

Denver is the only other team with this sorta difference. Generally the same teams on both lists. Denver has the 4th best D at home, but the 28th on the road. Maybe you can use altitude as an excuse for them.

I can't figure out our excuse-- Chauncey needs to figure this out.
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At least the Grizz are consistent.
 
What still is amazing to me is that in season 10, Dame (PG) has yet to catch Clyde (SG) in assists. Clyde was here for 10.5 years and didn't start his first season. Truly remarkable how versatile Drexler was.
 
TBpup said:
What still is amazing to me is that in season 10, Dame (PG) has yet to catch Clyde (SG) in assists. Clyde was here for 10.5 years and didn't start his first season. Truly remarkable how versatile Drexler was.
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just a quibble...11.5 years. He played 165 more games as a Blazer than Dame has
 
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